Intrinsic value of Martin Midstream Partners - MMLP

Previous Close

$15.05

  Intrinsic Value

$2.44

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-84%

Previous close

$15.05

 
Intrinsic value

$2.44

 
Up/down potential

-84%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MMLP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -20.25
  2.10
  2.39
  2.65
  2.89
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.61
  3.75
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.26
  4.34
  4.40
  4.46
  4.52
  4.56
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  827
  844
  865
  887
  913
  941
  972
  1,006
  1,042
  1,081
  1,123
  1,168
  1,216
  1,267
  1,321
  1,378
  1,439
  1,503
  1,571
  1,642
  1,718
  1,798
  1,882
  1,971
  2,064
  2,163
  2,266
  2,376
  2,490
  2,611
  2,738
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  786
  805
  826
  850
  876
  905
  936
  970
  1,006
  1,045
  1,085
  1,129
  1,177
  1,227
  1,280
  1,336
  1,396
  1,459
  1,526
  1,596
  1,670
  1,748
  1,831
  1,918
  2,009
  2,105
  2,207
  2,313
  2,426
  2,543
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  755
  786
  805
  826
  850
  876
  905
  936
  970
  1,006
  1,045
  1,085
  1,129
  1,177
  1,227
  1,280
  1,336
  1,396
  1,459
  1,526
  1,596
  1,670
  1,748
  1,831
  1,918
  2,009
  2,105
  2,207
  2,313
  2,426
  2,543
Operating income, $m
  73
  58
  60
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
EBITDA, $m
  165
  152
  155
  159
  164
  169
  174
  181
  187
  194
  202
  210
  218
  227
  237
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
  308
  323
  338
  354
  370
  388
  407
  426
  447
  469
  491
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
Earnings before tax, $m
  32
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  87
  91
  96
Tax expense, $m
  0
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Net income, $m
  32
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,246
  1,272
  1,302
  1,337
  1,375
  1,418
  1,464
  1,515
  1,570
  1,629
  1,692
  1,759
  1,831
  1,908
  1,989
  2,075
  2,167
  2,263
  2,366
  2,474
  2,588
  2,708
  2,835
  2,968
  3,109
  3,257
  3,413
  3,578
  3,750
  3,932
  4,124
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,246
  1,272
  1,302
  1,337
  1,375
  1,418
  1,464
  1,515
  1,570
  1,629
  1,692
  1,759
  1,831
  1,908
  1,989
  2,075
  2,167
  2,263
  2,366
  2,474
  2,588
  2,708
  2,835
  2,968
  3,109
  3,257
  3,413
  3,578
  3,750
  3,932
  4,124
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.663
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
  0.664
Average production assets, $m
  960
  979
  1,003
  1,029
  1,059
  1,092
  1,128
  1,167
  1,209
  1,254
  1,303
  1,355
  1,410
  1,469
  1,532
  1,598
  1,669
  1,743
  1,822
  1,905
  1,993
  2,086
  2,183
  2,286
  2,395
  2,509
  2,629
  2,756
  2,889
  3,029
  3,176
Working capital, $m
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  87
  89
  93
  96
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  229
  240
  252
Total debt, $m
  808
  828
  851
  876
  905
  937
  972
  1,010
  1,051
  1,095
  1,143
  1,193
  1,247
  1,305
  1,366
  1,430
  1,499
  1,572
  1,648
  1,729
  1,815
  1,905
  2,000
  2,100
  2,206
  2,317
  2,434
  2,557
  2,687
  2,823
  2,967
Total liabilities, $m
  934
  954
  977
  1,002
  1,031
  1,063
  1,098
  1,136
  1,177
  1,221
  1,269
  1,319
  1,373
  1,431
  1,492
  1,556
  1,625
  1,698
  1,774
  1,855
  1,941
  2,031
  2,126
  2,226
  2,332
  2,443
  2,560
  2,683
  2,813
  2,949
  3,093
Total equity, $m
  312
  318
  326
  334
  344
  354
  366
  379
  392
  407
  423
  440
  458
  477
  497
  519
  542
  566
  591
  618
  647
  677
  709
  742
  777
  814
  853
  894
  938
  983
  1,031
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,246
  1,272
  1,303
  1,336
  1,375
  1,417
  1,464
  1,515
  1,569
  1,628
  1,692
  1,759
  1,831
  1,908
  1,989
  2,075
  2,167
  2,264
  2,365
  2,473
  2,588
  2,708
  2,835
  2,968
  3,109
  3,257
  3,413
  3,577
  3,751
  3,932
  4,124
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.590
  2.600
  2.610
  2.620
  2.630
  2.640
  2.660
  2.670
  2.680
  2.690
  2.700
  2.710
  2.720
  2.740
  2.750
  2.760
  2.770
  2.780
  2.790
  2.800
  2.810
  2.810
  2.820
  2.830
  2.840
  2.850
  2.850
  2.860
  2.870
  2.870
  2.880
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  32
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  92
  93
  95
  98
  101
  104
  107
  111
  115
  119
  123
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
  234
  246
  258
  270
  283
  297
Funds from operations, $m
  89
  115
  118
  121
  124
  128
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  158
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  221
  231
  242
  253
  265
  277
  290
  304
  319
  334
  350
  367
Change in working capital, $m
  -22
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Cash from operations, $m
  111
  114
  116
  119
  122
  126
  130
  134
  138
  143
  149
  154
  160
  166
  173
  181
  188
  197
  205
  215
  224
  234
  245
  257
  269
  281
  295
  309
  323
  339
  355
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -90
  -92
  -94
  -96
  -99
  -102
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -234
  -246
  -258
  -270
  -283
New CAPEX, $m
  -40
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
Cash from investing activities, $m
  64
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -242
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -293
  -307
  -322
  -338
  -354
  -373
  -391
  -410
  -430
Free cash flow, $m
  175
  4
  1
  -1
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -55
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  111
  117
  123
  130
  136
  143
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -57
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  106
  111
  117
  123
  130
  136
  143
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  118
  24
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  82
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  18
  16
  16
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
Discount rate, %
 
  10.40
  10.92
  11.47
  12.04
  12.64
  13.27
  13.94
  14.63
  15.37
  16.13
  16.94
  17.79
  18.68
  19.61
  20.59
  21.62
  22.70
  23.84
  25.03
  26.28
  27.59
  28.97
  30.42
  31.94
  33.54
  35.22
  36.98
  38.83
  40.77
  42.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  16
  13
  11
  10
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Martin Midstream Partners L.P. is a limited partnership with a set of operations focused in the United States Gulf Coast region. The Company's four business lines include terminalling and storage services for petroleum products and by-products, including the refining of naphthenic crude oil and the blending and packaging of finished lubricants; natural gas services, including liquids transportation and distribution services, and natural gas storage; sulfur and sulfur-based products processing, manufacturing, marketing and distribution, and marine transportation services for petroleum products and by-products. The petroleum products and by-products it collects, transports, stores and markets are produced by oil and gas companies. As of December 31, 2016, it operated 26 marine shore-based terminal facilities and 14 specialty terminal facilities located in the United States Gulf Coast region. Its customers include oil and gas companies, chemical companies and fertilizer manufacturers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Martin Midstream Partners (MMLP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.7
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -20.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -39.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -15.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 259%
Total Debt to Equity 259%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Return On Total Capital 2.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Return On Equity 9.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 43%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.4%
EBITDA Margin 15%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Operating Margin 8.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Net Profit Margin 3.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.8%
Payout Ratio 368.8%

MMLP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MMLP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $827 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Martin Midstream Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Martin Midstream Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MMLP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.4%, whose default value for MMLP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Martin Midstream Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Martin Midstream Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MMLP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MMLP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Martin Midstream Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Martin Midstream Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MMLP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MMLP are equal to 116%.

Life of production assets of 10.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Martin Midstream Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MMLP is equal to 9.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $312 million for Martin Midstream Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.453 million for Martin Midstream Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Martin Midstream Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Top MLP Losers for Week Ended November 10   [05:05PM  Market Realist]
▶ Martin Midstream Partners L.P. to Host Earnings Call   [Oct-26-17 07:25AM  ACCESSWIRE]
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▶ MLPs Rallied Sharply This Week (ETE, APLP, MMLP, TOO, TGP)   [Mar-18-16 05:33PM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of MMLP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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