Intrinsic value of Monmouth Real Estate Investment Cl A - MNR

Previous Close

$17.97

  Intrinsic Value

$2.01

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  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

Previous close

$17.97

 
Intrinsic value

$2.01

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as MNR.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MNR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.79
  20.80
  19.22
  17.80
  16.52
  15.37
  14.33
  13.40
  12.56
  11.80
  11.12
  10.51
  9.96
  9.46
  9.02
  8.61
  8.25
  7.93
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
Revenue, $m
  95
  115
  137
  161
  188
  217
  248
  281
  316
  353
  393
  434
  477
  522
  570
  619
  670
  723
  778
  835
  895
  957
  1,021
  1,088
  1,158
  1,230
  1,306
  1,384
  1,466
  1,552
  1,641
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  47
  56
  66
  77
  89
  102
  115
  130
  145
  161
  178
  196
  215
  234
  254
  275
  297
  320
  343
  368
  393
  420
  447
  476
  506
  537
  569
  603
  638
  674
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
Total operating expenses, $m
  49
  57
  67
  77
  88
  100
  114
  127
  142
  157
  174
  191
  209
  229
  248
  268
  290
  312
  336
  359
  384
  410
  437
  465
  494
  525
  556
  588
  623
  658
  695
Operating income, $m
  45
  57
  70
  84
  100
  116
  134
  154
  174
  196
  219
  243
  268
  294
  321
  350
  380
  410
  443
  476
  511
  547
  584
  623
  664
  706
  750
  796
  844
  893
  945
EBITDA, $m
  72
  95
  115
  137
  161
  187
  215
  245
  277
  311
  347
  384
  423
  464
  507
  552
  598
  646
  696
  748
  803
  859
  917
  978
  1,041
  1,107
  1,176
  1,247
  1,322
  1,400
  1,481
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  21
  26
  31
  37
  43
  50
  57
  64
  73
  81
  90
  100
  110
  120
  131
  143
  154
  167
  179
  193
  206
  221
  236
  251
  267
  284
  301
  320
  339
  358
Earnings before tax, $m
  32
  36
  44
  53
  63
  73
  85
  97
  110
  123
  137
  152
  168
  184
  201
  219
  237
  256
  276
  297
  318
  340
  363
  388
  413
  439
  466
  494
  524
  555
  587
Tax expense, $m
  0
  10
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  37
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  111
  118
  126
  133
  141
  150
  159
Net income, $m
  32
  26
  32
  39
  46
  54
  62
  71
  80
  90
  100
  111
  122
  134
  147
  160
  173
  187
  201
  216
  232
  248
  265
  283
  301
  320
  340
  361
  383
  405
  429

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  96
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,223
  1,366
  1,629
  1,919
  2,236
  2,579
  2,949
  3,344
  3,764
  4,208
  4,676
  5,167
  5,682
  6,219
  6,780
  7,364
  7,972
  8,604
  9,261
  9,943
  10,653
  11,390
  12,156
  12,953
  13,782
  14,645
  15,544
  16,480
  17,455
  18,472
  19,533
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,127
  1,366
  1,629
  1,919
  2,236
  2,579
  2,949
  3,344
  3,764
  4,208
  4,676
  5,167
  5,682
  6,219
  6,780
  7,364
  7,972
  8,604
  9,261
  9,943
  10,653
  11,390
  12,156
  12,953
  13,782
  14,645
  15,544
  16,480
  17,455
  18,472
  19,533
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
  0.084
Average production assets, $m
  930
  1,123
  1,339
  1,577
  1,837
  2,120
  2,423
  2,748
  3,093
  3,458
  3,843
  4,247
  4,669
  5,111
  5,572
  6,052
  6,552
  7,071
  7,611
  8,172
  8,755
  9,361
  9,991
  10,646
  11,327
  12,036
  12,775
  13,544
  14,345
  15,181
  16,053
Working capital, $m
  0
  -116
  -138
  -163
  -190
  -219
  -250
  -284
  -320
  -357
  -397
  -439
  -483
  -528
  -576
  -625
  -677
  -731
  -786
  -844
  -905
  -967
  -1,032
  -1,100
  -1,170
  -1,244
  -1,320
  -1,400
  -1,482
  -1,569
  -1,659
Total debt, $m
  612
  745
  891
  1,052
  1,228
  1,418
  1,624
  1,843
  2,076
  2,322
  2,582
  2,855
  3,140
  3,439
  3,750
  4,074
  4,411
  4,762
  5,127
  5,506
  5,899
  6,308
  6,734
  7,176
  7,636
  8,115
  8,614
  9,133
  9,674
  10,239
  10,828
Total liabilities, $m
  626
  758
  904
  1,065
  1,241
  1,431
  1,637
  1,856
  2,089
  2,335
  2,595
  2,868
  3,153
  3,452
  3,763
  4,087
  4,424
  4,775
  5,140
  5,519
  5,912
  6,321
  6,747
  7,189
  7,649
  8,128
  8,627
  9,146
  9,687
  10,252
  10,841
Total equity, $m
  598
  608
  725
  854
  995
  1,148
  1,312
  1,488
  1,675
  1,872
  2,081
  2,299
  2,528
  2,768
  3,017
  3,277
  3,547
  3,829
  4,121
  4,425
  4,740
  5,069
  5,410
  5,764
  6,133
  6,517
  6,917
  7,333
  7,767
  8,220
  8,692
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,224
  1,366
  1,629
  1,919
  2,236
  2,579
  2,949
  3,344
  3,764
  4,207
  4,676
  5,167
  5,681
  6,220
  6,780
  7,364
  7,971
  8,604
  9,261
  9,944
  10,652
  11,390
  12,157
  12,953
  13,782
  14,645
  15,544
  16,479
  17,454
  18,472
  19,533
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.023
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  32
  26
  32
  39
  46
  54
  62
  71
  80
  90
  100
  111
  122
  134
  147
  160
  173
  187
  201
  216
  232
  248
  265
  283
  301
  320
  340
  361
  383
  405
  429
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  27
  37
  45
  53
  61
  71
  81
  92
  103
  115
  128
  142
  156
  170
  186
  202
  218
  236
  254
  272
  292
  312
  333
  355
  378
  401
  426
  451
  478
  506
  535
Funds from operations, $m
  53
  64
  77
  91
  107
  124
  143
  162
  183
  205
  228
  253
  278
  305
  332
  361
  391
  423
  455
  489
  524
  560
  598
  638
  679
  722
  766
  812
  861
  911
  964
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
Cash from operations, $m
  55
  84
  99
  116
  134
  153
  174
  196
  219
  243
  268
  294
  322
  350
  380
  411
  443
  476
  511
  547
  584
  623
  663
  705
  749
  795
  842
  892
  944
  997
  1,054
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -31
  -37
  -45
  -53
  -61
  -71
  -81
  -92
  -103
  -115
  -128
  -142
  -156
  -170
  -186
  -202
  -218
  -236
  -254
  -272
  -292
  -312
  -333
  -355
  -378
  -401
  -426
  -451
  -478
  -506
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -193
  -216
  -238
  -260
  -282
  -304
  -325
  -345
  -365
  -385
  -404
  -423
  -442
  -461
  -480
  -499
  -519
  -540
  -561
  -583
  -606
  -630
  -655
  -681
  -709
  -738
  -769
  -802
  -836
  -872
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -228
  -224
  -253
  -283
  -313
  -343
  -375
  -406
  -437
  -468
  -500
  -532
  -565
  -598
  -631
  -666
  -701
  -737
  -776
  -815
  -855
  -898
  -942
  -988
  -1,036
  -1,087
  -1,139
  -1,195
  -1,253
  -1,314
  -1,378
Free cash flow, $m
  -173
  -141
  -154
  -167
  -179
  -190
  -200
  -210
  -218
  -225
  -232
  -238
  -243
  -247
  -251
  -255
  -258
  -261
  -265
  -268
  -271
  -275
  -278
  -283
  -287
  -292
  -297
  -303
  -310
  -317
  -324
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  106
  133
  146
  161
  176
  191
  205
  219
  233
  247
  260
  273
  286
  298
  311
  324
  337
  351
  365
  379
  394
  409
  425
  442
  460
  479
  499
  519
  541
  564
  589
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  196
  80
  85
  90
  95
  99
  103
  105
  107
  108
  108
  108
  107
  105
  103
  100
  97
  94
  91
  87
  84
  80
  76
  72
  68
  64
  60
  56
  52
  48
  44
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  299
  213
  231
  251
  271
  290
  308
  324
  340
  355
  368
  381
  393
  403
  414
  424
  434
  445
  456
  466
  478
  489
  501
  514
  528
  543
  559
  575
  593
  612
  633
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  126
  72
  76
  84
  92
  100
  107
  115
  122
  129
  136
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  177
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  223
  231
  241
  251
  261
  272
  283
  295
  308
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -152
  -106
  -117
  -129
  -141
  -153
  -164
  -176
  -187
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -260
  -270
  -281
  -292
  -304
  -316
  -328
  -341
  -355
  -369
  -384
  -400
  -416
  -434
  -453
  -472
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  96
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  62
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -105
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
Discount rate, %
 
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.85
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.19
  13.85
  14.55
  15.27
  16.04
  16.84
  17.68
  18.57
  19.49
  20.47
  21.49
  22.57
  23.69
  24.88
  26.12
  27.43
  28.80
  30.24
  31.75
  33.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  58
  -34
  -35
  -34
  -33
  -32
  -30
  -27
  -25
  -22
  -19
  -17
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.4
  87.9
  83.3
  79.3
  75.9
  73.0
  70.5
  68.3
  66.4
  64.7
  63.2
  62.0
  60.8
  59.8
  59.0
  58.2
  57.5
  56.9
  56.4
  55.9
  55.5
  55.1
  54.8
  54.5
  54.3
  54.0
  53.8
  53.7
  53.5
  53.4

Monmouth Real Estate Investment Corporation is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company's primary business is the ownership of real estate. Its investment focus is to own single tenant, industrial buildings and leased to investment-grade tenants or their subsidiaries on long-term net leases. In addition, the Company owns a portfolio of REIT investment securities. Its assets are situated near airports, transportation hubs and manufacturing plants. The Company's featured properties include ULTA Cosmetics, Milwaukee Tool, Beam Suntory, FedEx Supply Chain Services, Coca-Cola, Best Buy, International Paper, Home Depot, FedEx Ground, Actavis, Anheuser-Busch, United Technologies, Kellogg's, Siemens, National Oilwell and Cardinal Health. The Company's property portfolio consists of approximately 107 properties located in over 30 states, containing a total of approximately 18.6 million rentable square feet.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Monmouth Real Estate Investment Cl A (MNR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.7
Price to Sales 13
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 37.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 21.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 102.3%
Total Debt to Equity 102.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital 3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Equity 6.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 84.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 84.1%
EBITDA Margin 62.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.7%
Operating Margin 48.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 33.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.3%
Net Profit Margin 33.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 131.3%

MNR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MNR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $95 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Monmouth Real Estate Investment Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Monmouth Real Estate Investment Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MNR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.1%, whose default value for MNR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Monmouth Real Estate Investment Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Monmouth Real Estate Investment Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MNR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 41.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $10 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MNR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Monmouth Real Estate Investment Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Monmouth Real Estate Investment Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MNR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MNR are equal to 978.4%.

Life of production assets of 34.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Monmouth Real Estate Investment Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MNR is equal to -101.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $598 million for Monmouth Real Estate Investment Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 74.468 million for Monmouth Real Estate Investment Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Monmouth Real Estate Investment Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Monmouth reports 4Q results   [Nov-29-17 04:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ Preferred REIT Shares Provide Stable Income   [Oct-31-17 09:05PM  Forbes]
▶ Monmouth Real Estate Declares Preferred Dividend   [Oct-02-17 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ It Only Takes One Torpedo To Sink The Ship   [Aug-26-17 07:00AM  Forbes]
▶ Monmouth reports 3Q results   [Aug-09-17 11:00PM  Associated Press]
▶ Monmouth reports 2Q results   [May-04-17 05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Income Stocks to Buy for April 18th   [Apr-18-17 10:39AM  Zacks]
▶ How Monmouth R.E. Inv. Corp. (MNR) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-12-16 08:46PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of MNR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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