Intrinsic value of Monro Muffler Brake - MNRO

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$54.60

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$54.60

 
Intrinsic value

$104.81

 
Up/down potential

+92%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MNRO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.59
  20.50
  18.95
  17.56
  16.30
  15.17
  14.15
  13.24
  12.41
  11.67
  11.01
  10.40
  9.86
  9.38
  8.94
  8.55
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.33
  7.09
  6.88
  6.70
  6.53
  6.37
  6.24
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
Revenue, $m
  944
  1,138
  1,353
  1,591
  1,850
  2,130
  2,432
  2,754
  3,096
  3,457
  3,838
  4,237
  4,655
  5,091
  5,547
  6,021
  6,514
  7,026
  7,559
  8,113
  8,689
  9,287
  9,909
  10,555
  11,228
  11,929
  12,658
  13,417
  14,209
  15,035
  15,896
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  856
  1,011
  1,181
  1,368
  1,569
  1,785
  2,016
  2,262
  2,521
  2,794
  3,041
  3,340
  3,654
  3,980
  4,320
  4,674
  5,042
  5,425
  5,822
  6,235
  6,665
  7,111
  7,575
  8,058
  8,560
  9,083
  9,629
  10,197
  10,789
  11,408
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  112
  115
  117
  120
  123
  126
  130
  133
  136
  140
  143
  147
  150
  154
  158
  162
  166
  170
  174
  179
  183
  188
  192
  197
  202
  207
  212
  218
  223
  229
Total operating expenses, $m
  823
  968
  1,126
  1,298
  1,488
  1,692
  1,911
  2,146
  2,395
  2,657
  2,934
  3,184
  3,487
  3,804
  4,134
  4,478
  4,836
  5,208
  5,595
  5,996
  6,414
  6,848
  7,299
  7,767
  8,255
  8,762
  9,290
  9,841
  10,415
  11,012
  11,637
Operating income, $m
  121
  169
  228
  292
  362
  438
  520
  608
  701
  800
  904
  1,053
  1,168
  1,287
  1,412
  1,542
  1,677
  1,818
  1,965
  2,117
  2,275
  2,439
  2,610
  2,788
  2,973
  3,166
  3,367
  3,576
  3,795
  4,022
  4,260
EBITDA, $m
  161
  234
  296
  366
  441
  523
  612
  707
  807
  913
  1,026
  1,143
  1,267
  1,395
  1,530
  1,670
  1,816
  1,967
  2,125
  2,289
  2,459
  2,636
  2,821
  3,012
  3,212
  3,419
  3,636
  3,861
  4,096
  4,341
  4,597
Interest expense (income), $m
  16
  16
  22
  28
  34
  42
  50
  58
  67
  77
  87
  98
  110
  121
  134
  147
  160
  174
  189
  204
  220
  236
  253
  271
  289
  308
  328
  349
  370
  393
  416
Earnings before tax, $m
  105
  153
  206
  264
  328
  396
  471
  550
  634
  723
  817
  955
  1,058
  1,166
  1,278
  1,395
  1,517
  1,644
  1,776
  1,913
  2,055
  2,203
  2,357
  2,517
  2,684
  2,858
  3,039
  3,227
  3,424
  3,629
  3,844
Tax expense, $m
  38
  41
  56
  71
  88
  107
  127
  148
  171
  195
  221
  258
  286
  315
  345
  377
  410
  444
  479
  516
  555
  595
  636
  680
  725
  772
  820
  871
  925
  980
  1,038
Net income, $m
  67
  112
  150
  193
  239
  289
  344
  401
  463
  528
  596
  697
  772
  851
  933
  1,019
  1,108
  1,200
  1,296
  1,396
  1,500
  1,608
  1,721
  1,838
  1,960
  2,086
  2,218
  2,356
  2,500
  2,649
  2,806

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  999
  1,194
  1,420
  1,669
  1,941
  2,236
  2,552
  2,890
  3,248
  3,628
  4,027
  4,446
  4,884
  5,342
  5,820
  6,317
  6,835
  7,373
  7,932
  8,513
  9,117
  9,745
  10,397
  11,076
  11,782
  12,517
  13,282
  14,079
  14,910
  15,776
  16,680
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  991
  1,194
  1,420
  1,669
  1,941
  2,236
  2,552
  2,890
  3,248
  3,628
  4,027
  4,446
  4,884
  5,342
  5,820
  6,317
  6,835
  7,373
  7,932
  8,513
  9,117
  9,745
  10,397
  11,076
  11,782
  12,517
  13,282
  14,079
  14,910
  15,776
  16,680
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
  0.953
Average production assets, $m
  377
  454
  540
  635
  738
  850
  970
  1,099
  1,235
  1,379
  1,531
  1,691
  1,857
  2,031
  2,213
  2,402
  2,599
  2,804
  3,016
  3,237
  3,467
  3,705
  3,954
  4,212
  4,480
  4,759
  5,050
  5,354
  5,669
  5,999
  6,343
Working capital, $m
  2
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  43
  46
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
Total debt, $m
  280
  365
  469
  583
  708
  843
  988
  1,143
  1,308
  1,482
  1,665
  1,858
  2,059
  2,269
  2,488
  2,717
  2,954
  3,201
  3,458
  3,725
  4,002
  4,290
  4,589
  4,901
  5,225
  5,562
  5,913
  6,279
  6,661
  7,058
  7,473
Total liabilities, $m
  463
  548
  652
  766
  891
  1,026
  1,171
  1,326
  1,491
  1,665
  1,848
  2,041
  2,242
  2,452
  2,671
  2,900
  3,137
  3,384
  3,641
  3,908
  4,185
  4,473
  4,772
  5,084
  5,408
  5,745
  6,096
  6,462
  6,844
  7,241
  7,656
Total equity, $m
  536
  646
  768
  903
  1,050
  1,209
  1,381
  1,563
  1,757
  1,963
  2,179
  2,405
  2,642
  2,890
  3,149
  3,418
  3,698
  3,989
  4,291
  4,606
  4,932
  5,272
  5,625
  5,992
  6,374
  6,772
  7,186
  7,617
  8,066
  8,535
  9,024
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  999
  1,194
  1,420
  1,669
  1,941
  2,235
  2,552
  2,889
  3,248
  3,628
  4,027
  4,446
  4,884
  5,342
  5,820
  6,318
  6,835
  7,373
  7,932
  8,514
  9,117
  9,745
  10,397
  11,076
  11,782
  12,517
  13,282
  14,079
  14,910
  15,776
  16,680
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.522
  0.570
  0.610
  0.650
  0.670
  0.700
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.760
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.533
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541
  0.541

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  67
  112
  150
  193
  239
  289
  344
  401
  463
  528
  596
  697
  772
  851
  933
  1,019
  1,108
  1,200
  1,296
  1,396
  1,500
  1,608
  1,721
  1,838
  1,960
  2,086
  2,218
  2,356
  2,500
  2,649
  2,806
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  40
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  92
  98
  106
  113
  121
  90
  99
  108
  118
  128
  138
  149
  160
  172
  184
  197
  210
  224
  238
  253
  269
  285
  302
  319
  337
Funds from operations, $m
  138
  176
  219
  267
  318
  375
  435
  500
  568
  641
  718
  787
  871
  959
  1,051
  1,146
  1,246
  1,349
  1,457
  1,568
  1,685
  1,805
  1,931
  2,062
  2,198
  2,339
  2,487
  2,641
  2,801
  2,969
  3,143
Change in working capital, $m
  11
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  127
  190
  218
  265
  317
  373
  434
  498
  567
  639
  716
  785
  869
  957
  1,049
  1,144
  1,243
  1,347
  1,454
  1,566
  1,682
  1,802
  1,928
  2,059
  2,194
  2,336
  2,483
  2,637
  2,797
  2,964
  3,139
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -24
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -45
  -52
  -58
  -66
  -73
  -81
  -90
  -99
  -108
  -118
  -128
  -138
  -149
  -160
  -172
  -184
  -197
  -210
  -224
  -238
  -253
  -269
  -285
  -302
  -319
New CAPEX, $m
  -37
  -77
  -86
  -95
  -103
  -112
  -120
  -128
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -174
  -182
  -189
  -197
  -205
  -213
  -221
  -230
  -239
  -248
  -258
  -268
  -279
  -291
  -303
  -316
  -329
  -344
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -83
  -97
  -110
  -124
  -137
  -151
  -165
  -180
  -194
  -210
  -225
  -240
  -257
  -273
  -290
  -307
  -325
  -343
  -362
  -381
  -402
  -423
  -445
  -468
  -492
  -517
  -544
  -572
  -601
  -631
  -663
Free cash flow, $m
  44
  93
  108
  142
  180
  222
  268
  318
  372
  429
  491
  544
  613
  684
  759
  837
  919
  1,004
  1,092
  1,184
  1,280
  1,379
  1,483
  1,590
  1,702
  1,818
  1,939
  2,065
  2,197
  2,333
  2,476
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -30
  93
  104
  114
  125
  135
  145
  155
  165
  174
  183
  192
  201
  210
  219
  228
  238
  247
  257
  267
  277
  288
  300
  311
  324
  337
  351
  366
  381
  398
  415
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -23
  93
  104
  114
  125
  135
  145
  155
  165
  174
  183
  192
  201
  210
  219
  228
  238
  247
  257
  267
  277
  288
  300
  311
  324
  337
  351
  366
  381
  398
  415
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  20
  186
  212
  256
  305
  357
  413
  473
  537
  603
  674
  737
  814
  894
  978
  1,065
  1,156
  1,251
  1,349
  1,451
  1,557
  1,667
  1,782
  1,902
  2,026
  2,156
  2,290
  2,431
  2,578
  2,731
  2,891
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -62
  -110
  -122
  -135
  -147
  -159
  -171
  -183
  -194
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -237
  -248
  -258
  -269
  -280
  -291
  -303
  -314
  -327
  -340
  -353
  -367
  -382
  -398
  -414
  -431
  -449
  -469
  -489
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  76
  89
  121
  158
  198
  242
  290
  342
  398
  458
  510
  577
  646
  720
  796
  876
  960
  1,046
  1,137
  1,230
  1,328
  1,429
  1,535
  1,644
  1,758
  1,877
  2,000
  2,128
  2,262
  2,402
Discount rate, %
 
  5.40
  5.67
  5.95
  6.25
  6.56
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.04
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.16
  21.17
  22.23
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  72
  80
  102
  124
  144
  162
  178
  191
  200
  205
  202
  200
  194
  185
  174
  160
  144
  128
  112
  95
  80
  65
  53
  41
  32
  24
  17
  12
  9
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Monro Muffler Brake, Inc. provides automotive undercar repair and tire services in the United States. The company offers a range of services on passenger cars, light trucks, and vans for brakes; mufflers and exhaust systems; and steering, drive train, suspension, and wheel alignment. It also provides other products and services comprising tires and routine maintenance services, including state inspections. The company’s maintenance services comprise oil change, heating and cooling system ‘flush and fill’ service, belt installation, fuel system service, and a transmission ‘flush and fill’ service. In addition, it replaces and services batteries, starters, and alternators, as well as offers air conditioning services. The company operates its stores under the brand names of Monro Muffler Brake & Service, Tread Quarters Discount Tire, Mr. Tire, Autotire Car Care Center, Tire Warehouse, Tire Barn Warehouse, Ken Towery’s Tire & Auto Care, The Tire Choice, and Car-X. As of March 26, 2016, it had 1,029 company-operated stores, 135 franchised locations, and 14 dealer-operated automotive repair centers located in the northeastern and midwestern regions of the United States. Monro Muffler Brake, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Rochester, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Monro Muffler Brake (MNRO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.3
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 5.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 50.2%
Total Debt to Equity 52.2%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Return On Total Capital 8.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Return On Equity 13.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 40.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.6%
EBITDA Margin 17.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Operating Margin 12.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Net Profit Margin 7.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Effective Tax Rate 36.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Payout Ratio 29.9%

MNRO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MNRO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $944 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Monro Muffler Brake. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Monro Muffler Brake. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MNRO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.4%, whose default value for MNRO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Monro Muffler Brake, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Monro Muffler Brake.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MNRO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $109 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MNRO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for Monro Muffler Brake.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Monro Muffler Brake. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MNRO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MNRO are equal to 39.9%.

Life of production assets of 18.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Monro Muffler Brake operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MNRO is equal to 0.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $536 million for Monro Muffler Brake - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.438 million for Monro Muffler Brake is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Monro Muffler Brake at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.


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▶ Is Monro Muffler Brake Inc (MNRO) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-07-16 05:49AM  at Insider Monkey]
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