Intrinsic value of Manitex International - MNTX

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$6.95

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MNTX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -9.69
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  289
  395
  404
  414
  426
  439
  453
  468
  485
  503
  522
  543
  565
  588
  613
  640
  668
  698
  729
  762
  797
  834
  873
  914
  957
  1,003
  1,051
  1,102
  1,155
  1,211
  1,269
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  370
  378
  388
  399
  411
  424
  438
  453
  470
  487
  499
  519
  540
  563
  588
  613
  641
  669
  700
  732
  766
  802
  840
  879
  921
  965
  1,012
  1,060
  1,112
  1,166
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  291
  370
  378
  388
  399
  411
  424
  438
  453
  470
  487
  499
  519
  540
  563
  588
  613
  641
  669
  700
  732
  766
  802
  840
  879
  921
  965
  1,012
  1,060
  1,112
  1,166
Operating income, $m
  -2
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
EBITDA, $m
  9
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
Earnings before tax, $m
  -17
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  27
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Net income, $m
  -35
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  318
  403
  412
  423
  435
  448
  462
  478
  495
  513
  533
  554
  577
  601
  626
  653
  682
  712
  744
  778
  813
  851
  891
  933
  977
  1,024
  1,073
  1,124
  1,178
  1,235
  1,295
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  313
  403
  412
  423
  435
  448
  462
  478
  495
  513
  533
  554
  577
  601
  626
  653
  682
  712
  744
  778
  813
  851
  891
  933
  977
  1,024
  1,073
  1,124
  1,178
  1,235
  1,295
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.923
  0.980
  0.981
  0.979
  0.979
  0.980
  0.981
  0.979
  0.980
  0.981
  0.979
  0.980
  0.979
  0.978
  0.979
  0.980
  0.979
  0.980
  0.980
  0.979
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.979
  0.979
  0.980
  0.980
  0.981
  0.980
Average production assets, $m
  100
  74
  76
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  143
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
  237
Working capital, $m
  54
  109
  111
  114
  118
  121
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  177
  184
  193
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  334
  350
Total debt, $m
  142
  163
  169
  177
  186
  195
  206
  217
  230
  243
  258
  273
  289
  307
  325
  345
  366
  388
  411
  436
  462
  490
  518
  549
  581
  615
  651
  688
  728
  770
  813
Total liabilities, $m
  244
  294
  300
  308
  317
  326
  337
  348
  361
  374
  389
  404
  420
  438
  456
  476
  497
  519
  542
  567
  593
  621
  649
  680
  712
  746
  782
  819
  859
  901
  944
Total equity, $m
  74
  109
  112
  115
  118
  121
  125
  130
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  220
  231
  241
  253
  265
  277
  291
  305
  319
  335
  351
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  318
  403
  412
  423
  435
  447
  462
  478
  495
  513
  533
  554
  576
  601
  626
  653
  682
  712
  744
  778
  813
  852
  890
  933
  977
  1,023
  1,073
  1,124
  1,178
  1,236
  1,295
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.919
  1.490
  1.520
  1.550
  1.580
  1.610
  1.640
  1.680
  1.710
  1.750
  1.780
  1.820
  1.850
  1.890
  1.920
  1.950
  1.980
  2.010
  2.040
  2.070
  2.100
  2.120
  2.150
  2.170
  2.200
  2.220
  2.240
  2.260
  2.280
  2.300
  2.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.236
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271
  0.271

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -35
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  11
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Funds from operations, $m
  -7
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
Cash from operations, $m
  -4
  21
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
Cash from investing activities, $m
  18
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
Free cash flow, $m
  14
  14
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -26
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -17
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  19
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  33
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  17
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  27
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
Discount rate, %
 
  9.90
  10.40
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.64
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.13
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.83
  25.02
  26.27
  27.58
  28.96
  30.41
  31.93
  33.52
  35.20
  36.96
  38.81
  40.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  16
  18
  17
  15
  13
  12
  10
  9
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Manitex International, Inc. provides engineered lifting and loading products worldwide. The company operates through Lifting Equipment, ASV, and Equipment Distribution segments. The Lifting Equipment segment designs, manufactures, and distributes boom trucks and crane products that are used for industrial projects and energy exploration, as well as for roads, bridges, and commercial construction; and specialized rough terrain cranes and material handling products for the construction, municipality, and railroad industries, as well as rough terrain forklifts for use in commercial and military applications. This segment also offers specialty mission oriented vehicles; specialized mobile tanks for petrochemical, waste management, and oil and gas drilling markets; other specialized carriers, heavy material handling transporters, and steel mill equipment; reach stackers and associated lifting equipment; and electric precision pick and carry cranes. The ASV segment manufactures and sells compact rubber tracked and skid steer loaders for use in the site clearing, general construction, forestry, and golf course maintenance and landscaping industries. The Equipment Distribution segment distributes rough terrain and truck cranes used primarily for infrastructure development and commercial construction applications, such as road and bridge construction, general contracting, roofing, scrap handling, and sign construction and maintenance; supplies repair parts for medium to heavy duty construction equipment; provides crane equipment repair services; and provides used lifting and construction equipment. The company was formerly known as Veri-Tek International, Corp. and changed its name to Manitex International, Inc. in May 2008. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Bridgeview, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Manitex International (MNTX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.2
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -28.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -22.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 152.7%
Total Debt to Equity 191.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -9.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.8%
Return On Total Capital -14.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.2%
Return On Equity -38.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
EBITDA Margin -2.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Operating Margin -0.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -5.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Net Profit Margin -12.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.2%
Effective Tax Rate 5.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

MNTX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MNTX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $387 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Manitex International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Manitex International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MNTX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.9%, whose default value for MNTX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Manitex International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Manitex International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MNTX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MNTX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Manitex International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Manitex International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MNTX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MNTX are equal to 18.7%.

Life of production assets of 11.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Manitex International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MNTX is equal to 27.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $107 million for Manitex International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.224 million for Manitex International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Manitex International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Manitex reports 1Q loss   [May-04-17 05:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Manitex reports 4Q loss   [Mar-06-17 04:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ Manitex International, Inc. Announces Business Update   [Dec-21-16 09:01AM  Marketwired]
Stock chart of MNTX Financial statements of MNTX Annual reports of MNTX
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