Intrinsic value of Model N - MODN

Previous Close

$15.40

  Intrinsic Value

$0.51

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-97%

Previous close

$15.40

 
Intrinsic value

$0.51

 
Up/down potential

-97%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MODN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.83
  21.40
  19.76
  18.28
  16.96
  15.76
  14.68
  13.72
  12.84
  12.06
  11.35
  10.72
  10.15
  9.63
  9.17
  8.75
  8.38
  8.04
  7.74
  7.46
  7.22
  6.99
  6.79
  6.62
  6.45
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.95
  5.86
  5.77
Revenue, $m
  107
  130
  156
  184
  215
  249
  286
  325
  367
  411
  457
  507
  558
  612
  668
  726
  787
  850
  916
  984
  1,055
  1,129
  1,206
  1,286
  1,369
  1,455
  1,545
  1,639
  1,736
  1,838
  1,944
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  157
  187
  221
  259
  300
  343
  390
  440
  493
  549
  608
  669
  734
  801
  871
  944
  1,020
  1,099
  1,181
  1,266
  1,354
  1,446
  1,542
  1,642
  1,745
  1,853
  1,965
  2,082
  2,204
  2,332
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  140
  157
  187
  221
  259
  300
  343
  390
  440
  493
  549
  608
  669
  734
  801
  871
  944
  1,020
  1,099
  1,181
  1,266
  1,354
  1,446
  1,542
  1,642
  1,745
  1,853
  1,965
  2,082
  2,204
  2,332
Operating income, $m
  -33
  -27
  -32
  -37
  -44
  -50
  -58
  -66
  -74
  -83
  -92
  -101
  -111
  -122
  -133
  -145
  -157
  -170
  -183
  -196
  -211
  -225
  -241
  -256
  -273
  -290
  -308
  -327
  -346
  -367
  -388
EBITDA, $m
  -27
  -23
  -28
  -33
  -39
  -45
  -52
  -59
  -66
  -74
  -83
  -92
  -101
  -111
  -121
  -131
  -142
  -154
  -166
  -178
  -191
  -204
  -218
  -233
  -248
  -263
  -279
  -296
  -314
  -332
  -352
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
Earnings before tax, $m
  -33
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -52
  -59
  -68
  -77
  -86
  -96
  -106
  -117
  -128
  -140
  -152
  -165
  -179
  -193
  -207
  -222
  -238
  -255
  -271
  -289
  -308
  -327
  -347
  -367
  -389
  -412
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -33
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -52
  -59
  -68
  -77
  -86
  -96
  -106
  -117
  -128
  -140
  -152
  -165
  -179
  -193
  -207
  -222
  -238
  -255
  -271
  -289
  -308
  -327
  -347
  -367
  -389
  -412

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  66
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  113
  57
  68
  81
  95
  109
  125
  143
  161
  180
  201
  222
  245
  269
  293
  319
  346
  373
  402
  432
  464
  496
  530
  565
  601
  639
  678
  720
  762
  807
  854
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  47
  57
  68
  81
  95
  109
  125
  143
  161
  180
  201
  222
  245
  269
  293
  319
  346
  373
  402
  432
  464
  496
  530
  565
  601
  639
  678
  720
  762
  807
  854
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.277
  2.281
  2.294
  2.272
  2.263
  2.284
  2.288
  2.273
  2.280
  2.283
  2.274
  2.284
  2.278
  2.275
  2.280
  2.276
  2.275
  2.279
  2.279
  2.278
  2.274
  2.276
  2.275
  2.276
  2.278
  2.277
  2.279
  2.276
  2.278
  2.278
  2.276
Average production assets, $m
  10
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  30
  34
  38
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  68
  73
  79
  85
  92
  98
  105
  112
  120
  127
  135
  144
  152
  161
  171
  181
Working capital, $m
  49
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -40
  -45
  -52
  -58
  -65
  -73
  -81
  -89
  -97
  -106
  -115
  -125
  -135
  -146
  -157
  -168
  -180
  -192
  -204
  -218
  -231
  -246
  -261
  -276
  -292
  -309
Total debt, $m
  0
  4
  14
  26
  38
  51
  66
  81
  98
  115
  134
  153
  174
  195
  217
  240
  264
  289
  315
  342
  370
  399
  430
  461
  494
  528
  564
  601
  639
  679
  721
Total liabilities, $m
  47
  51
  61
  73
  85
  98
  113
  128
  145
  162
  181
  200
  221
  242
  264
  287
  311
  336
  362
  389
  417
  446
  477
  508
  541
  575
  611
  648
  686
  726
  768
Total equity, $m
  66
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  29
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  81
  85
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  113
  57
  68
  81
  94
  109
  126
  142
  161
  180
  201
  222
  246
  269
  293
  319
  346
  373
  402
  432
  463
  496
  530
  564
  601
  639
  679
  720
  762
  807
  853
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.760
  2.120
  3.180
  4.030
  4.700
  5.250
  5.710
  6.080
  6.400
  6.660
  6.890
  7.080
  7.250
  7.400
  7.530
  7.640
  7.740
  7.830
  7.910
  7.990
  8.050
  8.110
  8.170
  8.220
  8.260
  8.310
  8.350
  8.380
  8.420
  8.450
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -33
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -52
  -59
  -68
  -77
  -86
  -96
  -106
  -117
  -128
  -140
  -152
  -165
  -179
  -193
  -207
  -222
  -238
  -255
  -271
  -289
  -308
  -327
  -347
  -367
  -389
  -412
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
Funds from operations, $m
  -9
  -23
  -28
  -34
  -40
  -46
  -53
  -61
  -69
  -78
  -87
  -96
  -106
  -117
  -128
  -139
  -151
  -163
  -176
  -189
  -203
  -217
  -232
  -248
  -264
  -280
  -298
  -316
  -335
  -355
  -375
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
Cash from operations, $m
  -12
  -20
  -24
  -29
  -35
  -41
  -48
  -55
  -63
  -71
  -79
  -88
  -98
  -108
  -119
  -130
  -141
  -153
  -165
  -178
  -192
  -205
  -220
  -235
  -250
  -267
  -284
  -301
  -319
  -339
  -358
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -16
  -4
  -4
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -44
Free cash flow, $m
  -28
  -24
  -29
  -35
  -41
  -48
  -56
  -64
  -72
  -82
  -91
  -102
  -112
  -124
  -135
  -147
  -160
  -173
  -187
  -202
  -216
  -232
  -248
  -265
  -282
  -300
  -319
  -339
  -359
  -380
  -403
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  4
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  32
  33
  39
  46
  53
  61
  70
  79
  88
  98
  108
  119
  130
  142
  155
  168
  182
  196
  210
  226
  241
  258
  275
  293
  311
  331
  351
  372
  393
  416
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  36
  43
  50
  58
  66
  75
  85
  95
  105
  116
  127
  139
  151
  164
  178
  192
  207
  222
  237
  254
  270
  288
  307
  326
  345
  367
  388
  411
  433
  458
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -25
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  17
  -32
  -33
  -39
  -46
  -53
  -61
  -70
  -79
  -88
  -98
  -108
  -119
  -130
  -142
  -155
  -168
  -182
  -196
  -210
  -226
  -241
  -258
  -275
  -293
  -311
  -331
  -351
  -372
  -393
  -416
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  66
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  46
  -19
  -24
  -29
  -35
  -41
  -48
  -56
  -64
  -73
  -82
  -92
  -102
  -113
  -124
  -136
  -148
  -161
  -175
  -188
  -203
  -218
  -233
  -249
  -266
  -283
  -302
  -320
  -340
  -361
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  44
  -17
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -39
  -39
  -38
  -37
  -35
  -32
  -30
  -27
  -24
  -21
  -18
  -15
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  27.0
  14.6
  8.0
  4.4
  2.4
  1.3
  0.7
  0.4
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Model N, Inc. is a provider of revenue management solutions for life science and technology companies. The Company's solutions enable its customers to maximize revenues and reduce revenue compliance risk by transforming their revenue life cycle from a series of tactical, disjointed operations into a strategic end-to-end process. The Company's solutions include Revenue Enterprise Cloud, Revenue Intelligence Cloud and Revvy Revenue Management. The Company provides solutions that span the organizational and operational boundaries of functions, such as sales, marketing and finance, and serve as a system of record for revenue management processes, including pricing, contracts, rebates, incentives and regulatory compliance. The Company's application suites are designed to work with enterprise resource planning (ERP) and customer relationship management (CRM) applications. The Company also offers implementation services, managed services, strategic services and customer support.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Model N (MODN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -13
Price to Sales 4
Price to Book 6.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -35.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -28.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -40%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -28.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -20%
Return On Total Capital -44.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -30.2%
Return On Equity -44.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -30.2%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 49.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.8%
EBITDA Margin -25.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21%
Operating Margin -30.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -25.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -30.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -25.6%
Net Profit Margin -30.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -25.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

MODN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MODN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $107 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Model N. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Model N. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MODN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MODN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Model N, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Model N.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MODN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 120.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MODN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Model N.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Model N. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MODN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MODN are equal to 9.3%.

Life of production assets of 2.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Model N operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MODN is equal to -15.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $66 million for Model N - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.093 million for Model N is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Model N at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Model N, Inc. : December 13, 2017   [Dec-13-17 01:44PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Model N, Inc. : December 1, 2017   [Dec-01-17 10:41AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Model N, Inc. : November 20, 2017   [Nov-20-17 12:54PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Model N reports 4Q loss   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Model N, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:50PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Should You Buy Model N Inc (MODN)?   [Sep-11-17 05:15PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Model N reports 3Q loss   [Aug-08-17 09:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ Model N, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:MODN) : August 7, 2017   [Aug-07-17 06:12PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Model N, Inc. : May 26, 2017   [May-26-17 01:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Model N to Present at J.P. Morgan Technology Conference   [May-17-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Model N, Inc. : May 15, 2017   [May-15-17 04:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Model N reports 2Q loss   [May-08-17 05:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Model N to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Feb-23-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Can The Uptrend Continue for Model N (MODN)?   [Feb-22-17 08:23AM  Zacks]
▶ 5 Breakout Stocks for Superior Returns   [Feb-10-17 08:49AM  Zacks]
▶ Model N reports 1Q loss   [Feb-06-17 04:38PM  AP]
▶ Model N to Present at J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference   [Jan-09-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Model N Inc (MODN) Worthy of Your Portfolio?   [Dec-14-16 05:51PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Model N Signs Definitive Agreement to Acquire Revitas   [Dec-12-16 05:28PM  Marketwired]
Financial statements of MODN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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