Intrinsic value of Morningstar - MORN

Previous Close

$81.63

  Intrinsic Value

$100.42

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+23%

  Value-price divergence*

+77%

Previous close

$81.63

 
Intrinsic value

$100.42

 
Up/down potential

+23%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+77%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MORN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.27
  9.40
  8.96
  8.56
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
Revenue, $m
  799
  874
  952
  1,034
  1,119
  1,207
  1,299
  1,394
  1,493
  1,596
  1,703
  1,814
  1,930
  2,051
  2,176
  2,307
  2,443
  2,585
  2,733
  2,888
  3,050
  3,219
  3,395
  3,579
  3,772
  3,974
  4,185
  4,407
  4,638
  4,881
  5,135
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  657
  711
  767
  826
  887
  950
  1,015
  1,083
  1,154
  1,228
  1,249
  1,329
  1,411
  1,498
  1,588
  1,682
  1,779
  1,881
  1,988
  2,099
  2,215
  2,337
  2,464
  2,596
  2,735
  2,881
  3,033
  3,192
  3,359
  3,534
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  618
  657
  711
  767
  826
  887
  950
  1,015
  1,083
  1,154
  1,228
  1,249
  1,329
  1,411
  1,498
  1,588
  1,682
  1,779
  1,881
  1,988
  2,099
  2,215
  2,337
  2,464
  2,596
  2,735
  2,881
  3,033
  3,192
  3,359
  3,534
Operating income, $m
  181
  217
  241
  267
  293
  321
  349
  379
  410
  442
  475
  566
  602
  639
  678
  719
  762
  806
  852
  900
  951
  1,003
  1,058
  1,116
  1,176
  1,239
  1,305
  1,374
  1,446
  1,521
  1,601
EBITDA, $m
  252
  299
  326
  353
  382
  413
  444
  477
  510
  546
  582
  620
  660
  701
  744
  789
  835
  884
  934
  987
  1,042
  1,100
  1,160
  1,223
  1,289
  1,358
  1,431
  1,506
  1,585
  1,668
  1,755
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  9
  11
  13
  16
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
Earnings before tax, $m
  225
  208
  230
  253
  278
  303
  329
  356
  384
  413
  444
  531
  564
  598
  634
  671
  710
  750
  792
  836
  882
  930
  980
  1,033
  1,087
  1,145
  1,205
  1,268
  1,334
  1,403
  1,475
Tax expense, $m
  64
  56
  62
  68
  75
  82
  89
  96
  104
  112
  120
  143
  152
  161
  171
  181
  192
  202
  214
  226
  238
  251
  265
  279
  294
  309
  325
  342
  360
  379
  398
Net income, $m
  161
  152
  168
  185
  203
  221
  240
  260
  280
  302
  324
  388
  412
  437
  463
  490
  518
  547
  578
  610
  644
  679
  715
  754
  794
  836
  880
  925
  974
  1,024
  1,077

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  304
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,351
  1,146
  1,248
  1,355
  1,466
  1,582
  1,702
  1,827
  1,957
  2,092
  2,232
  2,378
  2,530
  2,688
  2,852
  3,023
  3,202
  3,388
  3,582
  3,785
  3,997
  4,218
  4,449
  4,691
  4,944
  5,209
  5,485
  5,775
  6,079
  6,397
  6,730
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,047
  1,146
  1,248
  1,355
  1,466
  1,582
  1,702
  1,827
  1,957
  2,092
  2,232
  2,378
  2,530
  2,688
  2,852
  3,023
  3,202
  3,388
  3,582
  3,785
  3,997
  4,218
  4,449
  4,691
  4,944
  5,209
  5,485
  5,775
  6,079
  6,397
  6,730
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
  0.763
Average production assets, $m
  241
  263
  287
  311
  337
  363
  391
  420
  449
  480
  513
  546
  581
  617
  655
  694
  735
  778
  823
  869
  918
  969
  1,022
  1,077
  1,135
  1,196
  1,260
  1,326
  1,396
  1,469
  1,546
Working capital, $m
  177
  -87
  -95
  -103
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -139
  -149
  -160
  -170
  -181
  -193
  -205
  -218
  -231
  -244
  -259
  -273
  -289
  -305
  -322
  -339
  -358
  -377
  -397
  -419
  -441
  -464
  -488
  -513
Total debt, $m
  250
  312
  376
  443
  512
  585
  660
  738
  819
  903
  991
  1,082
  1,177
  1,276
  1,379
  1,486
  1,597
  1,714
  1,835
  1,962
  2,094
  2,232
  2,377
  2,528
  2,686
  2,851
  3,024
  3,206
  3,395
  3,594
  3,802
Total liabilities, $m
  654
  716
  780
  847
  916
  989
  1,064
  1,142
  1,223
  1,307
  1,395
  1,486
  1,581
  1,680
  1,783
  1,890
  2,001
  2,118
  2,239
  2,366
  2,498
  2,636
  2,781
  2,932
  3,090
  3,255
  3,428
  3,610
  3,799
  3,998
  4,206
Total equity, $m
  697
  430
  468
  508
  550
  593
  638
  685
  734
  784
  837
  892
  949
  1,008
  1,070
  1,134
  1,201
  1,271
  1,343
  1,419
  1,499
  1,582
  1,669
  1,759
  1,854
  1,953
  2,057
  2,166
  2,280
  2,399
  2,524
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,351
  1,146
  1,248
  1,355
  1,466
  1,582
  1,702
  1,827
  1,957
  2,091
  2,232
  2,378
  2,530
  2,688
  2,853
  3,024
  3,202
  3,389
  3,582
  3,785
  3,997
  4,218
  4,450
  4,691
  4,944
  5,208
  5,485
  5,776
  6,079
  6,397
  6,730
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.359
  0.730
  0.800
  0.870
  0.930
  0.990
  1.030
  1.080
  1.120
  1.150
  1.180
  1.210
  1.240
  1.270
  1.290
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
  1.370
  1.380
  1.400
  1.410
  1.420
  1.440
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
  1.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  161
  152
  168
  185
  203
  221
  240
  260
  280
  302
  324
  388
  412
  437
  463
  490
  518
  547
  578
  610
  644
  679
  715
  754
  794
  836
  880
  925
  974
  1,024
  1,077
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  71
  82
  84
  87
  89
  92
  95
  98
  101
  104
  107
  55
  58
  62
  66
  69
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
Funds from operations, $m
  219
  234
  252
  272
  292
  313
  335
  357
  381
  405
  431
  442
  470
  498
  528
  559
  592
  625
  660
  697
  736
  776
  818
  861
  907
  955
  1,006
  1,058
  1,113
  1,171
  1,231
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
Cash from operations, $m
  214
  241
  260
  280
  300
  322
  344
  367
  391
  416
  441
  453
  481
  510
  541
  572
  605
  639
  675
  713
  752
  793
  835
  880
  927
  976
  1,027
  1,080
  1,136
  1,195
  1,257
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
New CAPEX, $m
  -63
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -274
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -90
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -224
Free cash flow, $m
  -60
  195
  210
  227
  244
  262
  280
  299
  319
  340
  361
  369
  392
  416
  441
  467
  495
  523
  553
  584
  616
  650
  685
  722
  761
  801
  843
  888
  934
  982
  1,033
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  215
  62
  64
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -48
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  162
  62
  64
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  90
  257
  275
  294
  313
  334
  355
  377
  400
  424
  449
  460
  487
  515
  544
  574
  606
  640
  674
  711
  749
  788
  830
  873
  919
  967
  1,016
  1,069
  1,124
  1,181
  1,241
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -57
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  304
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  524
  236
  253
  272
  290
  310
  330
  351
  373
  396
  405
  430
  455
  482
  510
  539
  570
  601
  635
  669
  705
  743
  783
  824
  867
  913
  960
  1,010
  1,062
  1,116
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  503
  216
  221
  224
  225
  225
  223
  220
  215
  208
  192
  183
  173
  162
  150
  137
  124
  111
  98
  85
  73
  62
  51
  42
  34
  27
  21
  16
  12
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Morningstar, Inc. provides independent investment research services in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company provides data on approximately 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles; and global market data on approximately 17 million exchange-traded equities, derivatives, commodities, currencies, and other investments. It offers Morningstar Data, an investment data spanning various investment databases, including pricing and commodity data; Morningstar Advisor Workstation, a Web-based investment planning system; Morningstar Direct, an institutional investment research platform; and Morningstar.com, a Website for individual investors. The company also provides retirement solutions to plan and invest for retirement; institutional investment advisory and management services; Morningstar Enterprise Components, a set of tools and capabilities that builds customized Websites or enhances existing solutions; and Morningstar Managed Portfolios, a discretionary asset management service. In addition, it offers equity and manager research services; ratings and analysis for structured credits; Morningstar Indexes, a set of investment indexes; Morningstar investment profiles, a pre-made or custom-generated investment fact sheets for investor communications; and Morningstar Commodity Data, a market data and analytical product. Further, the company offers ByAllAccounts, which provides data aggregation technology for financial applications; Morningstar Enterprise Data Management, a customized data aggregation and performance reporting solution; market data and desktop, and investment software; print and online publications; and investment conferences services. It serves financial advisors, asset management firms, retirement plan providers and sponsors, and individual investors. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Morningstar (MORN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.8
Price to Sales 4.4
Price to Book 5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 10.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 35.9%
Total Debt to Equity 35.9%
Interest Coverage 226
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Return On Total Capital 19.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.9%
Return On Equity 24.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.7%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 57.7%
EBITDA Margin 37.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.7%
Operating Margin 22.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 28.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.6%
Net Profit Margin 20.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Effective Tax Rate 28.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
Payout Ratio 23.6%

MORN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MORN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $799 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Morningstar. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Morningstar. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MORN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MORN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Morningstar, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Morningstar.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MORN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MORN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Morningstar.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Morningstar. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MORN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MORN are equal to 30.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Morningstar operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MORN is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $697 million for Morningstar - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.372 million for Morningstar is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Morningstar at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.5 billion.

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Stock chart of MORN Financial statements of MORN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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