Intrinsic value of Monolithic Power Systems - MPWR

Previous Close

$97.61

  Intrinsic Value

$38.83

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-60%

  Value-price divergence*

+6%

Previous close

$97.61

 
Intrinsic value

$38.83

 
Up/down potential

-60%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+6%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MPWR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.82
  17.60
  16.34
  15.21
  14.19
  13.27
  12.44
  11.70
  11.03
  10.42
  9.88
  9.39
  8.95
  8.56
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
Revenue, $m
  389
  457
  532
  613
  700
  793
  892
  996
  1,106
  1,221
  1,342
  1,468
  1,599
  1,736
  1,878
  2,026
  2,180
  2,340
  2,506
  2,679
  2,859
  3,045
  3,240
  3,442
  3,652
  3,872
  4,100
  4,339
  4,588
  4,847
  5,118
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  343
  399
  460
  525
  595
  669
  747
  829
  915
  1,006
  1,100
  1,198
  1,301
  1,407
  1,518
  1,634
  1,753
  1,878
  2,007
  2,142
  2,282
  2,427
  2,579
  2,736
  2,901
  3,072
  3,251
  3,437
  3,631
  3,835
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
Total operating expenses, $m
  334
  387
  444
  506
  572
  644
  719
  798
  881
  969
  1,061
  1,156
  1,256
  1,360
  1,468
  1,580
  1,698
  1,818
  1,945
  2,076
  2,212
  2,354
  2,501
  2,655
  2,814
  2,981
  3,154
  3,335
  3,523
  3,719
  3,925
Operating income, $m
  54
  70
  88
  107
  127
  150
  173
  198
  224
  252
  281
  312
  343
  376
  410
  446
  483
  522
  562
  603
  647
  692
  738
  787
  838
  891
  947
  1,004
  1,065
  1,128
  1,193
EBITDA, $m
  69
  80
  99
  120
  142
  166
  192
  219
  247
  277
  309
  341
  376
  411
  448
  487
  527
  569
  612
  658
  705
  753
  804
  857
  912
  970
  1,030
  1,092
  1,158
  1,226
  1,297
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
Earnings before tax, $m
  57
  70
  87
  106
  126
  147
  170
  194
  220
  247
  275
  305
  335
  367
  401
  435
  471
  509
  548
  588
  630
  674
  719
  767
  816
  868
  922
  978
  1,036
  1,097
  1,161
Tax expense, $m
  4
  19
  24
  29
  34
  40
  46
  52
  59
  67
  74
  82
  91
  99
  108
  118
  127
  137
  148
  159
  170
  182
  194
  207
  220
  234
  249
  264
  280
  296
  314
Net income, $m
  53
  51
  64
  77
  92
  108
  124
  142
  161
  180
  201
  223
  245
  268
  292
  318
  344
  371
  400
  429
  460
  492
  525
  560
  596
  634
  673
  714
  756
  801
  848

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  268
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  511
  286
  332
  383
  437
  495
  557
  622
  691
  763
  838
  917
  999
  1,084
  1,173
  1,266
  1,362
  1,462
  1,566
  1,673
  1,786
  1,902
  2,024
  2,150
  2,281
  2,418
  2,561
  2,710
  2,865
  3,028
  3,197
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  243
  286
  332
  383
  437
  495
  557
  622
  691
  763
  838
  917
  999
  1,084
  1,173
  1,266
  1,362
  1,462
  1,566
  1,673
  1,786
  1,902
  2,024
  2,150
  2,281
  2,418
  2,561
  2,710
  2,865
  3,028
  3,197
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.601
  1.598
  1.602
  1.601
  1.602
  1.602
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.600
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.600
  1.601
  1.601
  1.600
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
Average production assets, $m
  79
  93
  108
  124
  142
  161
  181
  202
  224
  248
  272
  298
  325
  352
  381
  411
  443
  475
  509
  544
  580
  618
  658
  699
  741
  786
  832
  881
  931
  984
  1,039
Working capital, $m
  330
  73
  85
  97
  111
  126
  142
  158
  176
  194
  213
  233
  254
  276
  299
  322
  347
  372
  399
  426
  455
  484
  515
  547
  581
  616
  652
  690
  729
  771
  814
Total debt, $m
  0
  14
  29
  46
  64
  83
  103
  125
  147
  171
  196
  222
  249
  277
  306
  336
  368
  401
  435
  471
  507
  546
  586
  627
  671
  716
  763
  812
  863
  916
  972
Total liabilities, $m
  80
  94
  109
  126
  144
  163
  183
  205
  227
  251
  276
  302
  329
  357
  386
  416
  448
  481
  515
  551
  587
  626
  666
  707
  751
  796
  843
  892
  943
  996
  1,052
Total equity, $m
  431
  192
  223
  257
  293
  332
  374
  417
  463
  512
  562
  615
  670
  728
  787
  849
  914
  981
  1,050
  1,123
  1,198
  1,276
  1,358
  1,443
  1,531
  1,623
  1,719
  1,818
  1,923
  2,032
  2,145
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  511
  286
  332
  383
  437
  495
  557
  622
  690
  763
  838
  917
  999
  1,085
  1,173
  1,265
  1,362
  1,462
  1,565
  1,674
  1,785
  1,902
  2,024
  2,150
  2,282
  2,419
  2,562
  2,710
  2,866
  3,028
  3,197
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.070
  0.130
  0.180
  0.220
  0.250
  0.280
  0.300
  0.320
  0.330
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  53
  51
  64
  77
  92
  108
  124
  142
  161
  180
  201
  223
  245
  268
  292
  318
  344
  371
  400
  429
  460
  492
  525
  560
  596
  634
  673
  714
  756
  801
  848
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
Funds from operations, $m
  105
  61
  75
  90
  107
  124
  143
  163
  184
  206
  229
  252
  277
  303
  331
  359
  388
  419
  451
  484
  518
  554
  591
  630
  670
  712
  756
  802
  850
  900
  952
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
Cash from operations, $m
  108
  50
  63
  77
  93
  110
  127
  146
  166
  187
  209
  232
  256
  282
  308
  335
  364
  393
  424
  456
  489
  524
  560
  598
  637
  677
  720
  764
  810
  858
  909
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
New CAPEX, $m
  -37
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -56
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -153
Free cash flow, $m
  52
  28
  39
  50
  63
  76
  91
  107
  124
  141
  160
  179
  200
  221
  244
  267
  291
  317
  343
  370
  399
  428
  459
  491
  524
  559
  595
  632
  672
  712
  755
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  5
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  55
  42
  54
  67
  81
  96
  111
  128
  146
  165
  185
  205
  227
  250
  273
  298
  323
  350
  377
  406
  435
  466
  499
  532
  567
  604
  642
  681
  723
  766
  811
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -62
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  268
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  282
  23
  33
  44
  57
  70
  85
  100
  117
  134
  153
  172
  192
  213
  236
  259
  282
  307
  333
  360
  388
  417
  448
  479
  512
  546
  581
  618
  657
  697
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  270
  21
  29
  36
  44
  51
  57
  63
  67
  70
  72
  73
  73
  72
  69
  66
  61
  57
  51
  46
  40
  35
  29
  24
  20
  16
  12
  10
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. designs, develops, and markets integrated power semiconductor solutions and power delivery architectures for communications, storage and computing, consumer, and industrial market segments. It offers direct current (DC) to DC converter integrated circuits (ICs) that are used to convert and control voltages of various electronic systems, such as portable electronic devices, wireless LAN access points, computers, monitors, automobiles, and medical equipment. The company also provides lighting control ICs for backlighting that are used in systems, which provide the light source for LCD panels in notebook computers, LCD monitors, car navigation systems, and LCD televisions. In addition, it offers alternating current (AC)/DC offline solutions for lighting illumination applications; and AC/DC power conversion solutions for various end products that plug into a wall outlet. The company markets its products through third party distributors, value-added resellers, and directly to original equipment manufacturers, original design manufacturers, and electronic manufacturing service providers in China, Taiwan, Europe, Korea, Southeast Asia, Japan, the United States, and internationally. Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 75.1
Price to Sales 10.2
Price to Book 9.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 36.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 56.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 131.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 18.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Total Capital 13.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Return On Equity 13.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.1%
EBITDA Margin 18.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.5%
Operating Margin 14.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Net Profit Margin 13.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Effective Tax Rate 7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Payout Ratio 62.3%

MPWR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MPWR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $389 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Monolithic Power Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Monolithic Power Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MPWR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MPWR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Monolithic Power Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Monolithic Power Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MPWR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $43 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MPWR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Monolithic Power Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Monolithic Power Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MPWR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MPWR are equal to 20.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Monolithic Power Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MPWR is equal to 15.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $431 million for Monolithic Power Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.139 million for Monolithic Power Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Monolithic Power Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Monolithic Power Systems Cheered After Earnings Beat   [Jul-27-17 04:23PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Monolithic tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Jul-26-17 11:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Chip-Gear Maker Lam Research Beats Views, Guides Higher   [05:45PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Artificial Intelligence Could Be Another Catalyst For Broadcom   [Jun-29-17 04:19PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Can This Chip Stock Power Up A Flickering Breakout?   [May-05-17 11:38AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Chipmakers Cavium, Monolithic Power Systems Get Price-Target Hikes   [Apr-27-17 04:49PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Monolithic beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-26-17 05:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Stocks To Buy And Watch: Top IPOs, Big And Small Caps, Growth Stocks   [Apr-21-17 05:42PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Monolithic Power Systems, Skyworks Called Buys Ahead Of Earnings   [Apr-20-17 04:41PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ AMD, Analog Get Analyst Boosts; Monolithic Power Still A Buy   [Mar-20-17 04:11PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Nvidia Fall Stemmed By Reassuring Analyst Comments   [Feb-24-17 04:14PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-28-16 11:21PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of MPWR Financial statements of MPWR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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