Intrinsic value of Monolithic Power Systems - MPWR

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$97.06

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$97.06

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MPWR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.82
  19.50
  18.05
  16.75
  15.57
  14.51
  13.56
  12.71
  11.94
  11.24
  10.62
  10.06
  9.55
  9.10
  8.69
  8.32
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
Revenue, $m
  389
  465
  549
  641
  740
  848
  963
  1,085
  1,215
  1,351
  1,495
  1,645
  1,802
  1,966
  2,137
  2,315
  2,499
  2,691
  2,891
  3,099
  3,314
  3,538
  3,771
  4,014
  4,266
  4,529
  4,802
  5,088
  5,385
  5,695
  6,019
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  349
  412
  481
  555
  636
  722
  814
  911
  1,013
  1,121
  1,232
  1,350
  1,473
  1,601
  1,734
  1,873
  2,016
  2,166
  2,322
  2,483
  2,651
  2,826
  3,007
  3,196
  3,393
  3,598
  3,812
  4,034
  4,267
  4,509
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
Total operating expenses, $m
  334
  393
  457
  527
  602
  685
  772
  865
  963
  1,067
  1,176
  1,288
  1,408
  1,532
  1,662
  1,796
  1,937
  2,081
  2,233
  2,391
  2,553
  2,723
  2,900
  3,083
  3,274
  3,473
  3,680
  3,896
  4,120
  4,355
  4,599
Operating income, $m
  54
  72
  92
  114
  138
  163
  191
  220
  252
  284
  319
  356
  394
  434
  475
  518
  563
  610
  658
  708
  761
  815
  872
  931
  992
  1,056
  1,123
  1,192
  1,265
  1,340
  1,419
EBITDA, $m
  69
  81
  103
  126
  152
  180
  210
  241
  275
  311
  348
  387
  428
  471
  515
  562
  610
  660
  712
  767
  823
  882
  943
  1,006
  1,072
  1,141
  1,213
  1,288
  1,366
  1,447
  1,532
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
Earnings before tax, $m
  57
  72
  91
  113
  136
  161
  188
  216
  247
  279
  312
  348
  385
  424
  464
  506
  549
  594
  641
  690
  741
  794
  849
  906
  966
  1,028
  1,093
  1,160
  1,231
  1,304
  1,381
Tax expense, $m
  4
  19
  25
  30
  37
  43
  51
  58
  67
  75
  84
  94
  104
  114
  125
  137
  148
  160
  173
  186
  200
  214
  229
  245
  261
  278
  295
  313
  332
  352
  373
Net income, $m
  53
  52
  67
  82
  99
  117
  137
  158
  180
  203
  228
  254
  281
  309
  339
  369
  401
  434
  468
  504
  541
  580
  620
  662
  705
  751
  798
  847
  899
  952
  1,008

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  268
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  511
  290
  343
  400
  462
  530
  601
  678
  759
  844
  934
  1,028
  1,126
  1,228
  1,335
  1,446
  1,561
  1,681
  1,806
  1,935
  2,070
  2,210
  2,356
  2,507
  2,665
  2,829
  3,000
  3,178
  3,363
  3,557
  3,759
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  243
  290
  343
  400
  462
  530
  601
  678
  759
  844
  934
  1,028
  1,126
  1,228
  1,335
  1,446
  1,561
  1,681
  1,806
  1,935
  2,070
  2,210
  2,356
  2,507
  2,665
  2,829
  3,000
  3,178
  3,363
  3,557
  3,759
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.601
  1.603
  1.601
  1.603
  1.602
  1.600
  1.602
  1.600
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.600
  1.600
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.602
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
  1.601
Average production assets, $m
  79
  44
  52
  60
  70
  80
  91
  102
  114
  127
  141
  155
  169
  185
  201
  218
  235
  253
  272
  291
  312
  333
  355
  377
  401
  426
  451
  478
  506
  535
  566
Working capital, $m
  330
  74
  87
  102
  118
  135
  153
  173
  193
  215
  238
  262
  287
  313
  340
  368
  397
  428
  460
  493
  527
  563
  600
  638
  678
  720
  764
  809
  856
  905
  957
Total debt, $m
  0
  16
  33
  52
  72
  94
  118
  143
  170
  198
  227
  258
  290
  324
  359
  396
  434
  473
  514
  557
  601
  647
  695
  745
  797
  851
  907
  965
  1,027
  1,090
  1,157
Total liabilities, $m
  80
  96
  113
  132
  152
  174
  198
  223
  250
  278
  307
  338
  370
  404
  439
  476
  514
  553
  594
  637
  681
  727
  775
  825
  877
  931
  987
  1,045
  1,107
  1,170
  1,237
Total equity, $m
  431
  195
  230
  269
  310
  355
  404
  455
  509
  566
  626
  689
  755
  824
  896
  970
  1,048
  1,128
  1,212
  1,299
  1,389
  1,483
  1,581
  1,682
  1,788
  1,898
  2,013
  2,132
  2,257
  2,387
  2,522
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  511
  291
  343
  401
  462
  529
  602
  678
  759
  844
  933
  1,027
  1,125
  1,228
  1,335
  1,446
  1,562
  1,681
  1,806
  1,936
  2,070
  2,210
  2,356
  2,507
  2,665
  2,829
  3,000
  3,177
  3,364
  3,557
  3,759
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.080
  0.140
  0.190
  0.230
  0.270
  0.290
  0.310
  0.330
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  53
  52
  67
  82
  99
  117
  137
  158
  180
  203
  228
  254
  281
  309
  339
  369
  401
  434
  468
  504
  541
  580
  620
  662
  705
  751
  798
  847
  899
  952
  1,008
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  62
  67
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
  101
  107
  113
Funds from operations, $m
  105
  62
  78
  95
  114
  134
  156
  179
  204
  229
  257
  285
  315
  346
  379
  413
  448
  485
  523
  562
  603
  646
  691
  737
  785
  836
  888
  943
  1,000
  1,059
  1,121
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
Cash from operations, $m
  108
  16
  64
  80
  98
  117
  137
  159
  183
  208
  234
  261
  290
  320
  352
  384
  418
  454
  491
  529
  569
  611
  654
  699
  745
  794
  845
  897
  952
  1,010
  1,070
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -101
  -107
New CAPEX, $m
  -37
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -56
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
Free cash flow, $m
  52
  2
  48
  61
  76
  93
  111
  130
  150
  172
  195
  219
  244
  271
  299
  327
  358
  389
  422
  455
  491
  527
  565
  605
  646
  689
  734
  780
  829
  880
  932
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  5
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  55
  17
  65
  80
  97
  115
  134
  155
  177
  200
  225
  250
  277
  305
  334
  364
  396
  428
  463
  498
  535
  573
  613
  655
  698
  743
  790
  839
  890
  943
  999
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -62
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -136
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  268
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  254
  30
  42
  55
  70
  86
  104
  123
  143
  164
  187
  211
  236
  262
  290
  318
  348
  379
  411
  445
  479
  516
  553
  592
  633
  675
  719
  765
  813
  863
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  243
  27
  36
  45
  54
  63
  70
  77
  82
  86
  89
  90
  90
  88
  85
  81
  76
  70
  63
  56
  50
  43
  36
  30
  25
  20
  15
  12
  9
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. designs, develops, and markets integrated power semiconductor solutions and power delivery architectures for communications, storage and computing, consumer, and industrial market segments. It offers direct current (DC) to DC converter integrated circuits (ICs) that are used to convert and control voltages of various electronic systems, such as portable electronic devices, wireless LAN access points, computers, monitors, automobiles, and medical equipment. The company also provides lighting control ICs for backlighting that are used in systems, which provide the light source for LCD panels in notebook computers, LCD monitors, car navigation systems, and LCD televisions. In addition, it offers alternating current (AC)/DC offline solutions for lighting illumination applications; and AC/DC power conversion solutions for various end products that plug into a wall outlet. The company markets its products through third party distributors, value-added resellers, and directly to original equipment manufacturers, original design manufacturers, and electronic manufacturing service providers in China, Taiwan, Europe, Korea, Southeast Asia, Japan, the United States, and internationally. Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 74.7
Price to Sales 10.2
Price to Book 9.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 36.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 55.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 131.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 18.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Total Capital 13.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Return On Equity 13.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.1%
EBITDA Margin 18.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.5%
Operating Margin 14.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Net Profit Margin 13.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Effective Tax Rate 7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Payout Ratio 62.3%

MPWR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MPWR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $389 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Monolithic Power Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Monolithic Power Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MPWR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 19.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MPWR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Monolithic Power Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Monolithic Power Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MPWR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 75.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $43 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MPWR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Monolithic Power Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Monolithic Power Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MPWR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MPWR are equal to 9.4%.

Life of production assets of 3.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Monolithic Power Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MPWR is equal to 15.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $431 million for Monolithic Power Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.139 million for Monolithic Power Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Monolithic Power Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.9 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Can This Chip Stock Power Up A Flickering Breakout?   [May-05-17 11:38AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Chipmakers Cavium, Monolithic Power Systems Get Price-Target Hikes   [Apr-27-17 04:49PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Monolithic beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-26-17 05:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Stocks To Buy And Watch: Top IPOs, Big And Small Caps, Growth Stocks   [Apr-21-17 05:42PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Monolithic Power Systems, Skyworks Called Buys Ahead Of Earnings   [Apr-20-17 04:41PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ AMD, Analog Get Analyst Boosts; Monolithic Power Still A Buy   [Mar-20-17 04:11PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Nvidia Fall Stemmed By Reassuring Analyst Comments   [Feb-24-17 04:14PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Is Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-28-16 11:21PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of MPWR Financial statements of MPWR Annual reports of MPWR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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