Intrinsic value of Marten Transport - MRTN

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$24.38

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$24.38

 
Intrinsic value

$8.45

 
Up/down potential

-65%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MRTN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.90
  2.40
  2.66
  2.89
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.46
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
Revenue, $m
  671
  687
  705
  726
  748
  773
  800
  829
  860
  893
  929
  967
  1,007
  1,050
  1,096
  1,144
  1,195
  1,249
  1,306
  1,367
  1,430
  1,497
  1,568
  1,642
  1,720
  1,803
  1,889
  1,981
  2,077
  2,178
  2,284
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  624
  640
  659
  679
  702
  726
  752
  781
  811
  843
  878
  915
  954
  995
  1,039
  1,085
  1,134
  1,186
  1,241
  1,298
  1,359
  1,423
  1,491
  1,562
  1,637
  1,716
  1,799
  1,886
  1,977
  2,074
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  613
  624
  640
  659
  679
  702
  726
  752
  781
  811
  843
  878
  915
  954
  995
  1,039
  1,085
  1,134
  1,186
  1,241
  1,298
  1,359
  1,423
  1,491
  1,562
  1,637
  1,716
  1,799
  1,886
  1,977
  2,074
Operating income, $m
  58
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
EBITDA, $m
  140
  140
  144
  148
  153
  158
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  234
  244
  255
  267
  279
  292
  306
  320
  336
  352
  368
  386
  405
  424
  445
  467
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
Earnings before tax, $m
  57
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
Tax expense, $m
  24
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
Net income, $m
  33
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  141

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  654
  670
  688
  707
  729
  753
  779
  808
  838
  871
  905
  942
  982
  1,024
  1,068
  1,115
  1,165
  1,218
  1,273
  1,332
  1,394
  1,459
  1,528
  1,600
  1,677
  1,757
  1,842
  1,931
  2,024
  2,123
  2,226
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  654
  670
  688
  707
  729
  753
  779
  808
  838
  871
  905
  942
  982
  1,024
  1,068
  1,115
  1,165
  1,218
  1,273
  1,332
  1,394
  1,459
  1,528
  1,600
  1,677
  1,757
  1,842
  1,931
  2,024
  2,123
  2,226
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.026
  1.025
  1.025
  1.027
  1.026
  1.027
  1.027
  1.026
  1.026
  1.025
  1.027
  1.027
  1.025
  1.025
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.025
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
  1.026
Average production assets, $m
  543
  556
  571
  587
  605
  625
  647
  670
  696
  723
  751
  782
  815
  850
  887
  926
  967
  1,011
  1,057
  1,106
  1,157
  1,211
  1,268
  1,328
  1,392
  1,458
  1,529
  1,602
  1,680
  1,762
  1,848
Working capital, $m
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
Total debt, $m
  8
  13
  19
  26
  33
  41
  50
  59
  69
  80
  92
  104
  117
  131
  146
  161
  178
  195
  214
  233
  254
  275
  298
  322
  348
  374
  402
  432
  463
  496
  530
Total liabilities, $m
  216
  222
  228
  235
  242
  250
  259
  268
  278
  289
  301
  313
  326
  340
  355
  370
  387
  404
  423
  442
  463
  484
  507
  531
  557
  583
  611
  641
  672
  705
  739
Total equity, $m
  437
  447
  459
  473
  487
  503
  521
  540
  560
  582
  605
  630
  656
  684
  713
  745
  778
  813
  850
  890
  931
  975
  1,021
  1,069
  1,120
  1,174
  1,230
  1,290
  1,352
  1,418
  1,487
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  653
  669
  687
  708
  729
  753
  780
  808
  838
  871
  906
  943
  982
  1,024
  1,068
  1,115
  1,165
  1,217
  1,273
  1,332
  1,394
  1,459
  1,528
  1,600
  1,677
  1,757
  1,841
  1,931
  2,024
  2,123
  2,226
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.018
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.070
  0.080
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.140
  0.150
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668
  0.668

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  33
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  141
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  82
  77
  79
  82
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  203
  212
  223
  233
  245
  257
Funds from operations, $m
  147
  123
  126
  130
  134
  138
  143
  147
  153
  159
  165
  171
  178
  186
  193
  202
  210
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  274
  287
  301
  315
  330
  345
  362
  379
  397
Change in working capital, $m
  13
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  134
  137
  125
  129
  133
  137
  141
  146
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  184
  191
  199
  208
  217
  227
  237
  248
  259
  271
  284
  297
  311
  325
  341
  357
  374
  392
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -212
  -223
  -233
  -245
New CAPEX, $m
  -162
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -97
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -236
  -247
  -260
  -273
  -286
  -301
  -315
  -331
Free cash flow, $m
  37
  49
  33
  33
  33
  33
  33
  33
  33
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -30
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -33
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  54
  39
  40
  40
  41
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -28
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  44
  27
  26
  25
  25
  24
  23
  23
  22
  22
  22
  22
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  42
  25
  23
  21
  19
  17
  16
  14
  13
  12
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Marten Transport, Ltd. operates as a temperature-sensitive truckload carrier for shippers in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. It operates through four segments: Truckload, Dedicated, Intermodal, and Brokerage. The Truckload segment transports food and other consumer packaged goods that require a temperature-controlled or insulated environment. The Dedicated segment provides transportation solutions to individual customers using temperature-controlled trailers, dry vans, and other specialized equipment. The Intermodal segment transports its customersÂ’ freight utilizing temperature-controlled trailers and dry containers on railroad flatcars for portions of trips, as well as using tractors and contracted carriers. The Brokerage segment arranges smaller third-party carriers to transport freight for its customers in temperature-controlled trailers and dry vans. As of December 31, 2015, the company operated a fleet of 2,740 tractors, including 2,675 company-owned tractors and 65 tractors supplied by independent contractors. Marten Transport, Ltd. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Mondovi, Wisconsin.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Marten Transport (MRTN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.1
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -28.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -13.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 1.8%
Total Debt to Equity 1.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 7.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Return On Equity 7.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.3%
EBITDA Margin 20.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.7%
Operating Margin 8.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Net Profit Margin 4.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Effective Tax Rate 42.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.8%
Payout Ratio 9.1%

MRTN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MRTN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $671 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Marten Transport. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Marten Transport. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MRTN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MRTN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Marten Transport, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Marten Transport.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MRTN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MRTN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Marten Transport.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Marten Transport. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MRTN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MRTN are equal to 80.9%.

Life of production assets of 7.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Marten Transport operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MRTN is equal to 4.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $437 million for Marten Transport - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.437 million for Marten Transport is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Marten Transport at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [May-09-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport tops Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-20-17 04:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-14-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport meets 4Q profit forecasts   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Marten Transport, Ltd (MRTN) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-14-16 07:29AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-06-16 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-16-16 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [May-10-16 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport beats 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-21-16 04:14PM  AP]
▶ Trucking Stocks Tumble on Downgrade, Pricing Outlook   [Apr-07-16 03:08PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Mar-01-16 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Marten Transport, Ltd (MRTN): Hedge Fund Sentiment Unchanged   [Dec-05  10:46AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Marten Transport Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Dec-01  04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Fly Leasing Ltd (FLY) Not Taking Off With Investors   [Nov-22  03:08PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of MRTN Financial statements of MRTN Annual reports of MRTN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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