Intrinsic value of Middlesex Water - MSEX

Previous Close

$45.76

  Intrinsic Value

$19.45

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-57%

  Value-price divergence*

-41%

Previous close

$45.76

 
Intrinsic value

$19.45

 
Up/down potential

-57%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-41%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MSEX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.56
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  133
  136
  139
  142
  146
  151
  156
  161
  167
  173
  180
  187
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  274
  287
  300
  314
  329
  345
  361
  379
  397
  416
  436
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  97
  99
  102
  105
  107
  110
  113
  115
Total operating expenses, $m
  92
  95
  98
  100
  103
  105
  109
  111
  115
  118
  121
  125
  130
  134
  138
  143
  148
  153
  158
  163
  168
  174
  181
  187
  193
  201
  208
  215
  223
  232
  240
Operating income, $m
  41
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  120
  127
  135
  144
  153
  163
  174
  185
  196
EBITDA, $m
  55
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  168
  179
  190
  202
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
Earnings before tax, $m
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  105
  111
  119
  126
  134
  143
  152
  162
Tax expense, $m
  11
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
Net income, $m
  23
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  620
  628
  643
  659
  678
  698
  721
  745
  772
  800
  831
  864
  899
  936
  976
  1,018
  1,063
  1,110
  1,160
  1,213
  1,268
  1,327
  1,389
  1,455
  1,523
  1,596
  1,672
  1,753
  1,837
  1,926
  2,020
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  616
  628
  643
  659
  678
  698
  721
  745
  772
  800
  831
  864
  899
  936
  976
  1,018
  1,063
  1,110
  1,160
  1,213
  1,268
  1,327
  1,389
  1,455
  1,523
  1,596
  1,672
  1,753
  1,837
  1,926
  2,020
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.216
  0.217
  0.216
  0.215
  0.215
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.217
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
  0.216
Average production assets, $m
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
Working capital, $m
  -20
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Total debt, $m
  153
  157
  166
  176
  188
  201
  216
  232
  249
  267
  287
  308
  330
  354
  380
  407
  435
  465
  497
  531
  567
  605
  644
  686
  731
  777
  826
  877
  932
  989
  1,049
Total liabilities, $m
  399
  403
  412
  422
  434
  447
  462
  478
  495
  513
  533
  554
  576
  600
  626
  653
  681
  711
  743
  777
  813
  851
  890
  932
  977
  1,023
  1,072
  1,123
  1,178
  1,235
  1,295
Total equity, $m
  221
  225
  231
  237
  243
  251
  259
  268
  277
  287
  298
  310
  323
  336
  350
  366
  382
  398
  416
  435
  455
  476
  499
  522
  547
  573
  600
  629
  660
  692
  725
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  620
  628
  643
  659
  677
  698
  721
  746
  772
  800
  831
  864
  899
  936
  976
  1,019
  1,063
  1,109
  1,159
  1,212
  1,268
  1,327
  1,389
  1,454
  1,524
  1,596
  1,672
  1,752
  1,838
  1,927
  2,020
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.692
  0.690
  0.720
  0.750
  0.770
  0.800
  0.830
  0.870
  0.900
  0.930
  0.960
  0.990
  1.020
  1.050
  1.080
  1.110
  1.140
  1.170
  1.190
  1.220
  1.250
  1.270
  1.290
  1.310
  1.340
  1.360
  1.380
  1.390
  1.410
  1.430
  1.450
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359
  0.359

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  23
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  54
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  103
  110
  117
  124
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  47
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  125
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
New CAPEX, $m
  -47
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -47
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Free cash flow, $m
  0
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  12
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  14
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  13
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  168
  178
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -12
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
Discount rate, %
 
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.12
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.82
  25.01
  26.26
  27.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  27
  26
  25
  24
  23
  22
  21
  19
  18
  16
  15
  13
  12
  10
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
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Middlesex Water Company is a water utility company. The Company owns and operates regulated water utility and wastewater systems in New Jersey, Delaware and Pennsylvania. The Company also operates water and wastewater systems under contract on behalf of municipal and private clients in New Jersey and Delaware. The Company's segments include Regulated and Non-Regulated. The Regulated segment is engaged in the business of collecting, treating and distributing water on a retail and wholesale basis to residential, commercial, industrial and fire protection customers in parts of New Jersey, Delaware and Pennsylvania. The Non-Regulated segment primarily consists of non-regulated contract services for the operation and maintenance of municipal and private water and wastewater systems in New Jersey and Delaware. The Middlesex System treats, stores and distributes water for residential, commercial, industrial and fire protection purposes.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Middlesex Water (MSEX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.4
Price to Sales 5.6
Price to Book 3.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 80.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 18.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 61.1%
Total Debt to Equity 69.2%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Total Capital 6.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Return On Equity 10.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 39.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.6%
Operating Margin 30.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 25.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.7%
Net Profit Margin 17.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.2%
Effective Tax Rate 32.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.5%
Payout Ratio 56.5%

MSEX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MSEX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $133 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Middlesex Water. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Middlesex Water. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MSEX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.7%, whose default value for MSEX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Middlesex Water, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Middlesex Water.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MSEX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 28.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $55 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MSEX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Middlesex Water.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Middlesex Water. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MSEX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MSEX are equal to 6.8%.

Life of production assets of 0.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Middlesex Water operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MSEX is equal to -4.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $221 million for Middlesex Water - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.372 million for Middlesex Water is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Middlesex Water at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
ARTNA Artesian Resou 42.21 38.85  hold
YORW York Water 36.35 12.08  str.sell
CTWS Connecticut Wa 63.02 31.50  sell
WTR Aqua America 35.30 12.89  str.sell
AWK American Water 86.22 31.53  str.sell
GWRS Global Water R 9.64 8.04  hold
CWT California Wat 42.90 44.89  buy
SJW SJW Group 64.15 82.43  str.buy

COMPANY NEWS

▶ 5 Top Dividend Stocks in Water   [Aug-19-17 10:31AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Middlesex Water posts 2Q profit   [Aug-01-17 09:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Middlesex Water Company Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jul-26-17 11:54AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Middlesex Water Co. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 02:53PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Middlesex Water Co. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:25PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Middlesex Water Co. : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 02:38PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Middlesex Water Company Announces Annual Meeting Results   [May-24-17 12:07PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Middlesex Water posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 02:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ Middlesex Water Company Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Apr-20-17 12:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Middlesex Water posts 4Q profit   [Mar-03-17 04:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Middlesex Water Company Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Feb-01-17 03:19PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Middlesex Water Company (MSEX) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-17-16 04:49PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Middlesex Water Company Increases Dividend 6.29 Percent   [Oct-26-16 12:31PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Five Water Stocks That Hedge Funds Like   [Sep-12-16 12:44PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Making the Long-Term Bet on Water   [Sep-03-16 12:01AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Middlesex Water Company Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jul-26-16 04:03PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Middlesex Water Company Reports Annual Meeting Results   [May-25-16 05:08PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Middlesex Water Company Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Apr-28-16 10:02AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of MSEX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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