Intrinsic value of MSG Networks Cl A - MSGN

Previous Close

$19.80

  Intrinsic Value

$2.22

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

Previous close

$19.80

 
Intrinsic value

$2.22

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MSGN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.58
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  675
  689
  704
  722
  743
  765
  790
  817
  846
  877
  911
  947
  986
  1,026
  1,070
  1,116
  1,165
  1,217
  1,272
  1,329
  1,390
  1,455
  1,523
  1,595
  1,670
  1,750
  1,833
  1,921
  2,014
  2,112
  2,214
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  402
  410
  420
  430
  442
  455
  469
  484
  501
  518
  494
  514
  536
  559
  583
  608
  635
  664
  694
  726
  760
  795
  832
  872
  913
  957
  1,003
  1,051
  1,102
  1,156
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  362
  402
  410
  420
  430
  442
  455
  469
  484
  501
  518
  494
  514
  536
  559
  583
  608
  635
  664
  694
  726
  760
  795
  832
  872
  913
  957
  1,003
  1,051
  1,102
  1,156
Operating income, $m
  313
  287
  294
  303
  313
  323
  335
  348
  362
  377
  393
  453
  471
  491
  511
  533
  557
  582
  608
  635
  665
  695
  728
  762
  798
  836
  876
  918
  963
  1,009
  1,058
EBITDA, $m
  323
  331
  339
  347
  357
  368
  380
  393
  407
  422
  438
  455
  474
  493
  514
  536
  560
  585
  611
  639
  668
  699
  732
  766
  803
  841
  881
  924
  968
  1,015
  1,064
Interest expense (income), $m
  37
  43
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
Earnings before tax, $m
  276
  243
  288
  296
  305
  316
  327
  339
  352
  366
  381
  440
  457
  475
  495
  516
  538
  561
  585
  611
  639
  668
  698
  730
  764
  800
  837
  877
  918
  962
  1,008
Tax expense, $m
  109
  66
  78
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  119
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  272
Net income, $m
  167
  177
  210
  216
  223
  230
  238
  247
  257
  267
  278
  321
  334
  347
  361
  376
  392
  409
  427
  446
  466
  487
  510
  533
  558
  584
  611
  640
  670
  702
  736

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  141
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  805
  677
  693
  710
  730
  752
  777
  803
  832
  863
  896
  931
  969
  1,009
  1,052
  1,097
  1,146
  1,196
  1,250
  1,307
  1,367
  1,431
  1,497
  1,568
  1,642
  1,720
  1,803
  1,889
  1,980
  2,076
  2,177
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  664
  677
  693
  710
  730
  752
  777
  803
  832
  863
  896
  931
  969
  1,009
  1,052
  1,097
  1,146
  1,196
  1,250
  1,307
  1,367
  1,431
  1,497
  1,568
  1,642
  1,720
  1,803
  1,889
  1,980
  2,076
  2,177
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.017
  1.018
  1.016
  1.017
  1.018
  1.017
  1.017
  1.017
  1.017
  1.016
  1.017
  1.017
  1.018
  1.017
  1.017
  1.017
  1.017
  1.018
  1.018
  1.017
  1.017
  1.017
  1.017
  1.017
  1.017
  1.017
  1.017
  1.017
  1.017
  1.017
  1.017
Average production assets, $m
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  148
  156
  163
  171
  179
Working capital, $m
  169
  102
  104
  107
  110
  113
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  215
  225
  236
  247
  259
  271
  284
  298
  313
  328
Total debt, $m
  1,313
  173
  187
  203
  221
  241
  263
  287
  313
  340
  370
  402
  436
  472
  511
  552
  595
  641
  689
  740
  794
  852
  912
  975
  1,042
  1,112
  1,186
  1,264
  1,346
  1,433
  1,523
Total liabilities, $m
  1,749
  609
  623
  639
  657
  677
  699
  723
  749
  776
  806
  838
  872
  908
  947
  988
  1,031
  1,077
  1,125
  1,176
  1,230
  1,288
  1,348
  1,411
  1,478
  1,548
  1,622
  1,700
  1,782
  1,869
  1,959
Total equity, $m
  -944
  68
  69
  71
  73
  75
  78
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  805
  677
  692
  710
  730
  752
  777
  803
  832
  862
  896
  931
  969
  1,009
  1,052
  1,098
  1,146
  1,197
  1,250
  1,307
  1,367
  1,431
  1,498
  1,568
  1,642
  1,720
  1,802
  1,889
  1,980
  2,077
  2,177
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.391
  2.560
  2.700
  2.860
  3.030
  3.210
  3.390
  3.570
  3.760
  3.950
  4.130
  4.320
  4.500
  4.680
  4.860
  5.030
  5.190
  5.360
  5.510
  5.660
  5.810
  5.950
  6.090
  6.220
  6.340
  6.470
  6.580
  6.690
  6.800
  6.900
  7.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.634
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  167
  177
  210
  216
  223
  230
  238
  247
  257
  267
  278
  321
  334
  347
  361
  376
  392
  409
  427
  446
  466
  487
  510
  533
  558
  584
  611
  640
  670
  702
  736
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  10
  44
  44
  44
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  45
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  208
  222
  255
  261
  267
  275
  283
  292
  302
  312
  323
  324
  336
  350
  364
  379
  396
  413
  431
  450
  470
  491
  514
  537
  562
  589
  616
  645
  676
  708
  742
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
Cash from operations, $m
  196
  220
  252
  258
  264
  272
  279
  288
  297
  307
  318
  318
  331
  344
  358
  373
  388
  405
  423
  441
  461
  482
  504
  527
  551
  577
  604
  632
  662
  694
  727
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
Free cash flow, $m
  191
  217
  249
  255
  261
  268
  275
  284
  293
  303
  313
  313
  325
  338
  351
  366
  381
  398
  415
  433
  452
  473
  494
  517
  541
  566
  592
  620
  649
  680
  713
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -168
  -1,068
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  903
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -170
  -165
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  22
  53
  263
  271
  279
  288
  297
  307
  319
  330
  343
  345
  359
  374
  390
  407
  425
  443
  463
  484
  506
  530
  554
  580
  607
  636
  666
  698
  731
  767
  804
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -176
  -1,081
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  69
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -959
  262
  269
  277
  285
  295
  305
  316
  327
  340
  341
  355
  370
  386
  402
  420
  438
  458
  479
  500
  523
  548
  573
  600
  628
  658
  689
  722
  757
  793
Discount rate, %
 
  13.90
  14.60
  15.32
  16.09
  16.90
  17.74
  18.63
  19.56
  20.54
  21.56
  22.64
  23.77
  24.96
  26.21
  27.52
  28.90
  30.34
  31.86
  33.45
  35.12
  36.88
  38.72
  40.66
  42.69
  44.83
  47.07
  49.42
  51.90
  54.49
  57.21
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -842
  199
  175
  152
  131
  111
  92
  76
  61
  48
  36
  27
  20
  15
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

MSG Networks Inc., formerly The Madison Square Garden Company, is engaged in sports production, and content development and distribution. The Company owns and operates two regional sports and entertainment networks, MSG Network (MSGN) and MSG+, collectively MSG Networks. Its networks are distributed throughout its territory, which includes all of New York State and significant portions of New Jersey and Connecticut, as well as parts of Pennsylvania. The Company delivers live games of the New York Knicks (the Knicks) of the National Basketball Association (NBA); the New York Rangers (the Rangers), New York Islanders (the Islanders), New Jersey Devils (the Devils) and Buffalo Sabres (the Sabres) of the National Hockey League (NHL); the New York Liberty (the Liberty) of the Women's National Basketball Association; the New York Red Bulls (the Red Bulls) of Major League Soccer (MLS), and the Westchester Knicks of the National Basketball Association Developmental League.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MSG Networks Cl A (MSGN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 8.9
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book -1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 66.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 38%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -131.5%
Total Debt to Equity -139.1%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 23.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Return On Total Capital 45.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
Return On Equity -16.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.6%
EBITDA Margin 47.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.9%
Operating Margin 46.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 40.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.4%
Net Profit Margin 24.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.1%
Effective Tax Rate 39.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

MSGN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MSGN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $675 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MSG Networks Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of MSG Networks Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MSGN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.9%, whose default value for MSGN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MSG Networks Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MSG Networks Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MSGN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 58.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MSGN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for MSG Networks Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MSG Networks Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MSGN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MSGN are equal to 8.1%.

Life of production assets of 48 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MSG Networks Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MSGN is equal to 14.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-944 million for MSG Networks Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 74.882 million for MSG Networks Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MSG Networks Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
AMCX AMC Networks C 55.33 48.88  hold
FOXA 21st Century F 34.99 30.06  hold
QVCA Liberty Intera 24.82 8.40  str.sell
SNI Scripps Networ 83.21 67.29  sell
HMTV Hemisphere Med 11.60 16.01  buy
DIS Walt Disney 111.27 104.06  hold
EVLV EVINE Live Cl 1.54 0.31  str.sell
HSNI HSN 40.90 32.50  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ MSG Networks sets a $150 stock buyback program   [Dec-08-17 08:18AM  MarketWatch]
▶ Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of MSG Networks Inc (MSGN)   [Dec-01-17 12:20PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ 2018 GRAMMY Song Of The Year Nominees   [Nov-28-17 03:24PM  CBSTV Videos]
▶ Harlem Globetrotters honor America's heroes   [Nov-22-17 08:32AM  Fox Business Videos]
▶ Speculation Swirls Around MSG, Jim Dolan's Media Empire   [Nov-18-17 09:00AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Former Madison Square Garden boss ousted after clash with Irving Azoff   [Nov-15-17 05:19PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Madison Square Garden Seeks Buyer for WNBA Team New York Liberty   [Nov-14-17 09:59AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ James Dolan named interim CEO of Madison Square Garden   [Nov-13-17 05:50PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Madison Square Garden CEO David O'Connor Steps Down   [02:58PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ The Madison Square Garden Co. posts 1Q loss   [Nov-03-17 07:39AM  Associated Press]
▶ MSG Networks beats 1Q profit forecasts   [08:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ MSG Networks Deleveraging Is Working   [Oct-11-17 10:10AM  Benzinga]
▶ fuboTV to Launch MSG Networks   [09:22AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ How the Knicks Are Making a Winner Out of Dolan   [Sep-07-17 03:40PM  Bloomberg Video]
Financial statements of MSGN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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