Intrinsic value of MicroStrategy - MSTR

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$188.75

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MSTR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.40
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  512
  522
  534
  548
  563
  580
  599
  620
  642
  666
  691
  718
  748
  779
  812
  847
  884
  923
  964
  1,008
  1,055
  1,104
  1,155
  1,209
  1,267
  1,327
  1,391
  1,457
  1,528
  1,602
  1,680
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  391
  400
  410
  421
  434
  448
  463
  480
  498
  517
  537
  559
  582
  607
  633
  661
  690
  721
  754
  789
  825
  864
  905
  948
  993
  1,040
  1,090
  1,143
  1,198
  1,256
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  405
  391
  400
  410
  421
  434
  448
  463
  480
  498
  517
  537
  559
  582
  607
  633
  661
  690
  721
  754
  789
  825
  864
  905
  948
  993
  1,040
  1,090
  1,143
  1,198
  1,256
Operating income, $m
  108
  132
  135
  138
  142
  146
  151
  156
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  196
  205
  213
  223
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  305
  319
  334
  350
  367
  385
  404
  423
EBITDA, $m
  125
  139
  142
  146
  150
  155
  160
  165
  171
  177
  184
  192
  199
  208
  216
  226
  236
  246
  257
  269
  281
  294
  308
  322
  338
  354
  371
  389
  407
  427
  448
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
Earnings before tax, $m
  113
  132
  135
  139
  142
  146
  151
  156
  161
  167
  173
  179
  186
  194
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  284
  297
  311
  325
  340
  356
  373
  391
  410
Tax expense, $m
  22
  36
  37
  37
  38
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
Net income, $m
  91
  96
  99
  101
  104
  107
  110
  114
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217
  227
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  299

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  589
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  768
  220
  225
  231
  238
  245
  253
  261
  271
  281
  292
  303
  315
  329
  342
  357
  373
  389
  407
  425
  445
  466
  487
  510
  534
  560
  587
  615
  645
  676
  709
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  179
  220
  225
  231
  238
  245
  253
  261
  271
  281
  292
  303
  315
  329
  342
  357
  373
  389
  407
  425
  445
  466
  487
  510
  534
  560
  587
  615
  645
  676
  709
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.860
  2.373
  2.373
  2.372
  2.366
  2.367
  2.368
  2.375
  2.369
  2.370
  2.366
  2.370
  2.375
  2.368
  2.374
  2.373
  2.370
  2.373
  2.369
  2.372
  2.371
  2.369
  2.372
  2.371
  2.373
  2.370
  2.370
  2.369
  2.369
  2.370
  2.370
Average production assets, $m
  75
  76
  78
  80
  82
  85
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
Working capital, $m
  500
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
Total debt, $m
  0
  -18
  -13
  -8
  -2
  4
  12
  19
  28
  37
  46
  57
  68
  80
  92
  105
  120
  134
  150
  167
  185
  203
  223
  243
  265
  288
  312
  337
  364
  392
  422
Total liabilities, $m
  216
  198
  203
  208
  214
  220
  228
  235
  244
  253
  262
  273
  284
  296
  308
  321
  336
  350
  366
  383
  401
  419
  439
  459
  481
  504
  528
  553
  580
  608
  638
Total equity, $m
  552
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  68
  71
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  768
  220
  226
  231
  238
  244
  253
  261
  271
  281
  291
  303
  316
  329
  342
  357
  373
  389
  407
  426
  446
  466
  488
  510
  534
  560
  587
  614
  644
  676
  709
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -0.800
  -0.580
  -0.340
  -0.090
  0.180
  0.460
  0.740
  1.020
  1.310
  1.590
  1.870
  2.150
  2.420
  2.690
  2.950
  3.210
  3.450
  3.690
  3.920
  4.150
  4.360
  4.570
  4.770
  4.960
  5.140
  5.320
  5.490
  5.650
  5.800
  5.950
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.207
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  91
  96
  99
  101
  104
  107
  110
  114
  118
  122
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217
  227
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  299
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
Funds from operations, $m
  108
  104
  107
  109
  112
  115
  119
  123
  127
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
  224
  234
  245
  257
  269
  281
  295
  309
  323
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
Cash from operations, $m
  111
  105
  108
  111
  114
  117
  121
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  263
  275
  288
  302
  316
  331
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Cash from investing activities, $m
  4
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
Free cash flow, $m
  115
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  110
  113
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  141
  146
  152
  159
  165
  173
  180
  188
  197
  206
  215
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  296
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -18
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  -18
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  110
  78
  103
  106
  109
  113
  117
  121
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  180
  188
  197
  206
  215
  225
  236
  247
  258
  271
  283
  297
  311
  326
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -97
  -22
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  552
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  608
  102
  105
  109
  112
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
  268
  281
  294
  308
  323
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  583
  94
  92
  89
  87
  84
  81
  78
  74
  70
  66
  62
  57
  53
  48
  44
  39
  34
  30
  26
  22
  19
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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MicroStrategy Incorporated provides enterprise software platforms worldwide. It offers MicroStrategy Analytics platform that delivers reports and dashboards, and enables users to conduct ad hoc analysis and share insights through mobile devices or the Web; MicroStrategy Server, which provides analytical processing and job management for various reporting, analysis, and monitoring applications; MicroStrategy Web, a primary reporting interface for analysts that offers interactive reporting, dashboarding, and analysis through a Web browser; and MicroStrategy Desktop, an on-premise and single-user tool for easy-to-use self-service visual data discovery. The company also provides MicroStrategy Mobile, a vehicle for mobilizing an organizationÂ’s information systems, including its data warehouses, business intelligence, ERP, CRM, and Web applications that are accessible on the desktop; and Usher, a digital credential and identity intelligence that enable organizations to dematerialize the traditional forms of identity verification and replace them with a single mobile identity badge. In addition, it offers MicroStrategy Cloud, an integrated and optimized cloud business analytics platform that combines infrastructure, technology, people, and processes to offer analytics as a service to customers, as well as provides technical support, consulting and advisory, and education services. It serves various industries, including retail, financial services and insurance, pharmaceutical and healthcare, manufacturing, consumer goods, government, public services, restaurants, and hospitality and leisure, as well as technology, media, and telecommunications. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Tysons Corner, Virginia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MicroStrategy (MSTR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.7
Price to Sales 4.2
Price to Book 3.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 19.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -84.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -34%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Return On Total Capital 18.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Return On Equity 18.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 81.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 79.8%
EBITDA Margin 25.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.5%
Operating Margin 20.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 22.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Net Profit Margin 17.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Effective Tax Rate 19.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

MSTR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MSTR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $512 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MicroStrategy. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of MicroStrategy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MSTR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MSTR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MicroStrategy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MicroStrategy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MSTR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MSTR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for MicroStrategy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MicroStrategy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MSTR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MSTR are equal to 14.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MicroStrategy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MSTR is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $552 million for MicroStrategy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 11.301 million for MicroStrategy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MicroStrategy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to MicroStrategy, Inc. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 03:42PM  Capital Cube]
▶ MicroStrategy Unveils MicroStrategy 10.8   [Jul-05-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ MicroStrategy on Amazon Web Services (AWS) Now Available   [May-30-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MicroStrategy, Inc. : May 2, 2017   [May-02-17 04:23PM  Capital Cube]
▶ MicroStrategy posts 1Q profit   [Apr-27-17 04:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ MicroStrategy Announces Integration with Alation   [Apr-18-17 08:05AM  Business Wire]
▶ MicroStrategy Unveils MicroStrategy 10.7   [Mar-27-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ MicroStrategy to Present at Upcoming Technology Conferences   [Feb-22-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Why MicroStrategy Popped 15% in 2016   [Feb-11-17 07:42PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why MicroStrategy Popped 15% in 2016   [07:42PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ MicroStrategy Revenues Slide on Foreign Currency Headwinds   [Feb-01-17 03:50PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ [$$] Comings & Goings   [10:26AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Paul Zolfaghari Joins Carrick Capital Partners   [Jan-11-17 10:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ InfoCepts Team of Consultants Certified on MicroStrategy 10   [Jan-09-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ MicroStrategy Unveils MicroStrategy 10.6   [Dec-19-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Why Shares of MicroStrategy Inc. Are Soaring Today   [Oct-28-16 12:52PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ MicroStrategy Desktop Now Available at No Charge   [Oct-17-16 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Stuller, Inc. Shines Brighter with MicroStrategy 10   [Oct-03-16 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ MicroStrategy Unveils MicroStrategy 10.5   [Sep-15-16 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- MicroStrategy Incorporated/   [Sep-01-16 06:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Quantium Selects MicroStrategy for Enterprise Analytics   [Aug-08-16 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of MSTR Financial statements of MSTR Annual reports of MSTR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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