Intrinsic value of Mettler-Toledo International - MTD

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$513.30

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$513.30

 
Intrinsic value

$255.53

 
Up/down potential

-50%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MTD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 13.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.72
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.01
Revenue, $m
  2,508
  2,641
  2,780
  2,926
  3,079
  3,239
  3,406
  3,582
  3,766
  3,959
  4,162
  4,374
  4,597
  4,831
  5,076
  5,333
  5,603
  5,887
  6,184
  6,496
  6,823
  7,167
  7,528
  7,906
  8,304
  8,721
  9,159
  9,619
  10,101
  10,608
  11,140
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,680
  1,766
  1,856
  1,950
  2,049
  2,153
  2,261
  2,375
  2,495
  2,620
  2,703
  2,841
  2,986
  3,137
  3,296
  3,463
  3,638
  3,822
  4,015
  4,217
  4,429
  4,652
  4,886
  5,132
  5,390
  5,660
  5,945
  6,243
  6,556
  6,885
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  426
  437
  448
  459
  471
  482
  494
  507
  520
  533
  546
  559
  573
  588
  602
  618
  633
  649
  665
  682
  699
  716
  734
  752
  771
  791
  810
  831
  851
  873
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,004
  2,106
  2,203
  2,304
  2,409
  2,520
  2,635
  2,755
  2,882
  3,015
  3,153
  3,249
  3,400
  3,559
  3,725
  3,898
  4,081
  4,271
  4,471
  4,680
  4,899
  5,128
  5,368
  5,620
  5,884
  6,161
  6,451
  6,755
  7,074
  7,407
  7,758
Operating income, $m
  504
  535
  577
  622
  669
  719
  771
  826
  884
  945
  1,010
  1,125
  1,197
  1,272
  1,351
  1,435
  1,523
  1,616
  1,713
  1,816
  1,925
  2,039
  2,159
  2,286
  2,419
  2,560
  2,708
  2,864
  3,028
  3,201
  3,383
EBITDA, $m
  573
  626
  670
  718
  767
  819
  874
  932
  993
  1,058
  1,125
  1,197
  1,272
  1,351
  1,434
  1,522
  1,615
  1,712
  1,815
  1,923
  2,037
  2,156
  2,283
  2,416
  2,556
  2,703
  2,858
  3,021
  3,193
  3,375
  3,565
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  33
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  87
  94
  100
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  164
  173
  184
  194
  206
  218
  230
  243
Earnings before tax, $m
  504
  502
  541
  582
  625
  671
  719
  770
  823
  879
  939
  1,049
  1,115
  1,184
  1,258
  1,335
  1,416
  1,502
  1,592
  1,688
  1,788
  1,894
  2,005
  2,122
  2,246
  2,376
  2,514
  2,658
  2,810
  2,970
  3,139
Tax expense, $m
  120
  135
  146
  157
  169
  181
  194
  208
  222
  237
  253
  283
  301
  320
  340
  360
  382
  406
  430
  456
  483
  511
  541
  573
  606
  642
  679
  718
  759
  802
  848
Net income, $m
  384
  366
  395
  425
  456
  490
  525
  562
  601
  642
  685
  766
  814
  865
  918
  974
  1,034
  1,096
  1,162
  1,232
  1,305
  1,382
  1,464
  1,549
  1,640
  1,735
  1,835
  1,940
  2,051
  2,168
  2,292

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  159
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,167
  2,114
  2,226
  2,343
  2,465
  2,593
  2,727
  2,868
  3,015
  3,170
  3,332
  3,502
  3,681
  3,868
  4,064
  4,270
  4,486
  4,713
  4,951
  5,201
  5,463
  5,738
  6,027
  6,330
  6,648
  6,982
  7,333
  7,701
  8,088
  8,493
  8,919
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,008
  2,114
  2,226
  2,343
  2,465
  2,593
  2,727
  2,868
  3,015
  3,170
  3,332
  3,502
  3,681
  3,868
  4,064
  4,270
  4,486
  4,713
  4,951
  5,201
  5,463
  5,738
  6,027
  6,330
  6,648
  6,982
  7,333
  7,701
  8,088
  8,493
  8,919
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
  1.249
Average production assets, $m
  682
  718
  756
  796
  837
  881
  926
  974
  1,024
  1,077
  1,132
  1,190
  1,250
  1,314
  1,381
  1,451
  1,524
  1,601
  1,682
  1,767
  1,856
  1,949
  2,048
  2,151
  2,259
  2,372
  2,491
  2,616
  2,748
  2,885
  3,030
Working capital, $m
  309
  177
  186
  196
  206
  217
  228
  240
  252
  265
  279
  293
  308
  324
  340
  357
  375
  394
  414
  435
  457
  480
  504
  530
  556
  584
  614
  644
  677
  711
  746
Total debt, $m
  894
  966
  1,061
  1,160
  1,264
  1,374
  1,488
  1,608
  1,734
  1,866
  2,004
  2,149
  2,302
  2,461
  2,629
  2,804
  2,989
  3,182
  3,385
  3,598
  3,822
  4,057
  4,303
  4,562
  4,833
  5,118
  5,417
  5,731
  6,061
  6,407
  6,770
Total liabilities, $m
  1,732
  1,804
  1,899
  1,998
  2,102
  2,212
  2,326
  2,446
  2,572
  2,704
  2,842
  2,987
  3,140
  3,299
  3,467
  3,642
  3,827
  4,020
  4,223
  4,436
  4,660
  4,895
  5,141
  5,400
  5,671
  5,956
  6,255
  6,569
  6,899
  7,245
  7,608
Total equity, $m
  435
  311
  327
  344
  362
  381
  401
  422
  443
  466
  490
  515
  541
  569
  597
  628
  659
  693
  728
  765
  803
  844
  886
  931
  977
  1,026
  1,078
  1,132
  1,189
  1,248
  1,311
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,167
  2,115
  2,226
  2,342
  2,464
  2,593
  2,727
  2,868
  3,015
  3,170
  3,332
  3,502
  3,681
  3,868
  4,064
  4,270
  4,486
  4,713
  4,951
  5,201
  5,463
  5,739
  6,027
  6,331
  6,648
  6,982
  7,333
  7,701
  8,088
  8,493
  8,919
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.055
  3.110
  3.240
  3.370
  3.490
  3.600
  3.710
  3.810
  3.910
  4.000
  4.090
  4.180
  4.250
  4.330
  4.400
  4.470
  4.530
  4.590
  4.650
  4.710
  4.760
  4.810
  4.860
  4.900
  4.950
  4.990
  5.030
  5.060
  5.100
  5.130
  5.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.137
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  384
  366
  395
  425
  456
  490
  525
  562
  601
  642
  685
  766
  814
  865
  918
  974
  1,034
  1,096
  1,162
  1,232
  1,305
  1,382
  1,464
  1,549
  1,640
  1,735
  1,835
  1,940
  2,051
  2,168
  2,292
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  69
  91
  93
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
  130
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
Funds from operations, $m
  425
  457
  488
  520
  554
  590
  628
  668
  710
  754
  801
  837
  889
  944
  1,001
  1,062
  1,126
  1,193
  1,264
  1,338
  1,417
  1,500
  1,587
  1,679
  1,776
  1,878
  1,985
  2,098
  2,217
  2,342
  2,474
Change in working capital, $m
  -18
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
Cash from operations, $m
  443
  498
  478
  510
  544
  580
  617
  656
  698
  741
  788
  823
  874
  928
  985
  1,045
  1,108
  1,174
  1,244
  1,318
  1,395
  1,477
  1,563
  1,654
  1,749
  1,850
  1,956
  2,067
  2,185
  2,308
  2,438
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
New CAPEX, $m
  -124
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -231
  -78
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -249
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -304
  -319
Free cash flow, $m
  212
  420
  397
  425
  455
  486
  518
  553
  589
  627
  668
  697
  742
  789
  839
  891
  947
  1,005
  1,067
  1,131
  1,200
  1,272
  1,347
  1,427
  1,511
  1,600
  1,694
  1,792
  1,896
  2,005
  2,120
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  312
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  160
  167
  176
  184
  193
  203
  213
  224
  235
  246
  259
  271
  285
  299
  314
  330
  346
  363
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -475
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -146
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  160
  167
  176
  184
  193
  203
  213
  224
  235
  246
  259
  271
  285
  299
  314
  330
  346
  363
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  60
  510
  492
  525
  559
  595
  633
  673
  715
  759
  806
  842
  894
  949
  1,006
  1,067
  1,131
  1,199
  1,270
  1,344
  1,423
  1,506
  1,594
  1,686
  1,783
  1,885
  1,993
  2,106
  2,225
  2,351
  2,483
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  145
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  140
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  634
  476
  508
  541
  576
  613
  652
  693
  736
  782
  817
  868
  921
  978
  1,037
  1,099
  1,165
  1,235
  1,308
  1,385
  1,466
  1,551
  1,641
  1,736
  1,836
  1,941
  2,052
  2,169
  2,291
  2,421
Discount rate, %
 
  5.50
  5.78
  6.06
  6.37
  6.69
  7.02
  7.37
  7.74
  8.13
  8.53
  8.96
  9.41
  9.88
  10.37
  10.89
  11.43
  12.01
  12.61
  13.24
  13.90
  14.59
  15.32
  16.09
  16.89
  17.74
  18.62
  19.56
  20.53
  21.56
  22.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  601
  425
  425
  423
  417
  408
  396
  382
  365
  345
  318
  295
  271
  246
  220
  194
  170
  146
  123
  103
  84
  67
  53
  41
  31
  23
  17
  12
  8
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Mettler-Toledo International Inc. manufactures and supplies precision instruments and services worldwide. The company operates in five segments: U.S. Operations, Swiss Operations, Western European Operations, Chinese Operations, and Other. It offers weighing instruments for laboratory, industrial, packaging, logistics, and food retailing applications; analytical instruments for use in life science; reaction engineering and real-time analytic systems used in drug and chemical compound development; process analytics instruments used for in-line measurement in production processes; and end-of-line inspection systems used in production and packaging for food, pharmaceutical, and other industries. Its laboratory instruments include laboratory balances, liquid pipetting solutions, titrators, physical value analyzers, and thermal analysis systems, as well as other analytical instruments, such as moisture analyzers and density refractometers; and LabX, a PC-based laboratory embedded software platform. The company’s industrial solutions comprise industrial weighing instruments and terminals, automatic dimensional measurement and data capture solutions, vehicle scale systems, industrial software, and product inspection systems. Its retail weighing solutions consist of multiple weighing and food labeling solutions, stand-alone scales, and networked scales and software for handling fresh goods, such as meats, vegetables, fruits, and cheeses. The company serves the life science industry covering pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, and independent research organizations; food and beverage producers; food retailers; chemical, specialty chemical, and cosmetics companies; transportation and logistics, metals, and electronics industries; and the academic community. The company markets its products through its direct sales force and indirect distribution channels. Mettler-Toledo International Inc. was founded in 1991 and is based in Columbus, Ohio.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Mettler-Toledo International (MTD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 34.8
Price to Sales 5.3
Price to Book 30.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 30.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 41.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 49.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 201.1%
Total Debt to Equity 205.5%
Interest Coverage 19
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 19.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
Return On Total Capital 30.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.2%
Return On Equity 75.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.9%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.1%
EBITDA Margin 24%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.8%
Operating Margin 20.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 20.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.1%
Net Profit Margin 15.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Effective Tax Rate 23.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

MTD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MTD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2508 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Mettler-Toledo International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Mettler-Toledo International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MTD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.5%, whose default value for MTD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Mettler-Toledo International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Mettler-Toledo International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MTD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 63.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $416 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MTD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.8% for Mettler-Toledo International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Mettler-Toledo International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MTD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MTD are equal to 27.2%.

Life of production assets of 16.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Mettler-Toledo International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MTD is equal to 6.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $435 million for Mettler-Toledo International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.913 million for Mettler-Toledo International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Mettler-Toledo International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $13.3 billion.


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Stock chart of MTD Financial statements of MTD
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