Intrinsic value of Meritage Homes - MTH

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$39.05

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$39.05

 
Intrinsic value

$64.99

 
Up/down potential

+66%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MTH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.95
  12.60
  11.84
  11.16
  10.54
  9.99
  9.49
  9.04
  8.64
  8.27
  7.94
  7.65
  7.38
  7.15
  6.93
  6.74
  6.56
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.92
  5.83
  5.75
  5.67
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
Revenue, $m
  3,042
  3,425
  3,831
  4,258
  4,707
  5,177
  5,668
  6,181
  6,714
  7,270
  7,847
  8,448
  9,071
  9,720
  10,393
  11,094
  11,822
  12,580
  13,368
  14,189
  15,044
  15,935
  16,865
  17,834
  18,846
  19,903
  21,006
  22,160
  23,366
  24,627
  25,946
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,175
  3,551
  3,947
  4,363
  4,799
  5,255
  5,729
  6,224
  6,739
  7,274
  7,831
  8,409
  9,010
  9,635
  10,284
  10,959
  11,661
  12,392
  13,153
  13,946
  14,772
  15,634
  16,532
  17,470
  18,450
  19,473
  20,542
  21,660
  22,829
  24,052
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,824
  3,175
  3,551
  3,947
  4,363
  4,799
  5,255
  5,729
  6,224
  6,739
  7,274
  7,831
  8,409
  9,010
  9,635
  10,284
  10,959
  11,661
  12,392
  13,153
  13,946
  14,772
  15,634
  16,532
  17,470
  18,450
  19,473
  20,542
  21,660
  22,829
  24,052
Operating income, $m
  218
  250
  280
  311
  344
  378
  414
  451
  490
  531
  573
  617
  662
  710
  759
  810
  863
  918
  976
  1,036
  1,098
  1,163
  1,231
  1,302
  1,376
  1,453
  1,533
  1,618
  1,706
  1,798
  1,894
EBITDA, $m
  234
  253
  283
  315
  348
  383
  419
  457
  497
  538
  581
  625
  671
  719
  769
  821
  875
  931
  989
  1,050
  1,113
  1,179
  1,248
  1,320
  1,395
  1,473
  1,554
  1,640
  1,729
  1,822
  1,920
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  38
  45
  52
  59
  66
  74
  83
  91
  100
  110
  119
  130
  140
  151
  162
  174
  187
  199
  213
  226
  241
  256
  272
  288
  305
  323
  342
  361
  381
  403
Earnings before tax, $m
  218
  212
  235
  259
  285
  312
  339
  369
  399
  430
  463
  497
  533
  569
  608
  647
  689
  732
  777
  823
  872
  922
  975
  1,030
  1,088
  1,148
  1,211
  1,276
  1,345
  1,416
  1,491
Tax expense, $m
  68
  57
  63
  70
  77
  84
  92
  100
  108
  116
  125
  134
  144
  154
  164
  175
  186
  198
  210
  222
  235
  249
  263
  278
  294
  310
  327
  345
  363
  382
  403
Net income, $m
  150
  155
  171
  189
  208
  227
  248
  269
  291
  314
  338
  363
  389
  416
  444
  473
  503
  534
  567
  601
  636
  673
  712
  752
  794
  838
  884
  932
  982
  1,034
  1,089

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  132
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,889
  3,105
  3,473
  3,861
  4,267
  4,694
  5,139
  5,603
  6,087
  6,591
  7,114
  7,659
  8,224
  8,812
  9,423
  10,058
  10,718
  11,405
  12,120
  12,864
  13,639
  14,447
  15,290
  16,169
  17,086
  18,044
  19,045
  20,090
  21,184
  22,327
  23,523
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,757
  3,105
  3,473
  3,861
  4,267
  4,694
  5,139
  5,603
  6,087
  6,591
  7,114
  7,659
  8,224
  8,812
  9,423
  10,058
  10,718
  11,405
  12,120
  12,864
  13,639
  14,447
  15,290
  16,169
  17,086
  18,044
  19,045
  20,090
  21,184
  22,327
  23,523
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
  1.103
Average production assets, $m
  17
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  130
Working capital, $m
  0
  -147
  -165
  -183
  -202
  -223
  -244
  -266
  -289
  -313
  -337
  -363
  -390
  -418
  -447
  -477
  -508
  -541
  -575
  -610
  -647
  -685
  -725
  -767
  -810
  -856
  -903
  -953
  -1,005
  -1,059
  -1,116
Total debt, $m
  1,095
  1,279
  1,475
  1,681
  1,897
  2,124
  2,361
  2,608
  2,865
  3,133
  3,412
  3,701
  4,002
  4,315
  4,640
  4,978
  5,329
  5,694
  6,075
  6,471
  6,883
  7,313
  7,761
  8,229
  8,717
  9,226
  9,759
  10,315
  10,897
  11,505
  12,141
Total liabilities, $m
  1,467
  1,652
  1,848
  2,054
  2,270
  2,497
  2,734
  2,981
  3,238
  3,506
  3,785
  4,074
  4,375
  4,688
  5,013
  5,351
  5,702
  6,067
  6,448
  6,844
  7,256
  7,686
  8,134
  8,602
  9,090
  9,599
  10,132
  10,688
  11,270
  11,878
  12,514
Total equity, $m
  1,421
  1,453
  1,625
  1,807
  1,997
  2,197
  2,405
  2,622
  2,849
  3,085
  3,330
  3,584
  3,849
  4,124
  4,410
  4,707
  5,016
  5,338
  5,672
  6,020
  6,383
  6,761
  7,156
  7,567
  7,996
  8,445
  8,913
  9,402
  9,914
  10,449
  11,009
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,888
  3,105
  3,473
  3,861
  4,267
  4,694
  5,139
  5,603
  6,087
  6,591
  7,115
  7,658
  8,224
  8,812
  9,423
  10,058
  10,718
  11,405
  12,120
  12,864
  13,639
  14,447
  15,290
  16,169
  17,086
  18,044
  19,045
  20,090
  21,184
  22,327
  23,523
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.771
  0.880
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468
  0.468

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  150
  155
  171
  189
  208
  227
  248
  269
  291
  314
  338
  363
  389
  416
  444
  473
  503
  534
  567
  601
  636
  673
  712
  752
  794
  838
  884
  932
  982
  1,034
  1,089
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  16
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
Funds from operations, $m
  -394
  158
  175
  194
  213
  233
  253
  275
  298
  321
  346
  371
  398
  425
  454
  484
  515
  547
  580
  615
  651
  689
  729
  770
  813
  858
  905
  954
  1,005
  1,059
  1,115
Change in working capital, $m
  -291
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
Cash from operations, $m
  -103
  191
  193
  212
  232
  253
  275
  297
  321
  345
  371
  397
  425
  453
  483
  514
  546
  579
  614
  650
  688
  728
  769
  812
  856
  903
  952
  1,003
  1,057
  1,113
  1,171
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
New CAPEX, $m
  -17
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -20
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -32
Free cash flow, $m
  -123
  187
  187
  206
  225
  246
  267
  289
  312
  336
  361
  386
  413
  441
  470
  500
  531
  564
  598
  633
  670
  708
  748
  790
  834
  879
  927
  977
  1,029
  1,083
  1,140
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -6
  184
  196
  206
  216
  227
  237
  247
  257
  268
  279
  290
  301
  313
  325
  338
  351
  365
  380
  396
  412
  430
  448
  468
  488
  510
  532
  556
  582
  608
  636
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -7
  184
  196
  206
  216
  227
  237
  247
  257
  268
  279
  290
  301
  313
  325
  338
  351
  365
  380
  396
  412
  430
  448
  468
  488
  510
  532
  556
  582
  608
  636
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -131
  371
  383
  412
  442
  472
  504
  536
  569
  604
  639
  676
  714
  754
  795
  838
  882
  929
  978
  1,029
  1,082
  1,138
  1,196
  1,257
  1,322
  1,389
  1,459
  1,533
  1,610
  1,691
  1,777
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -162
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -217
  -226
  -236
  -245
  -255
  -265
  -275
  -286
  -297
  -309
  -321
  -335
  -348
  -363
  -378
  -394
  -411
  -429
  -448
  -468
  -489
  -512
  -535
  -560
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  132
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  339
  211
  231
  251
  273
  295
  319
  343
  368
  394
  421
  449
  479
  509
  541
  573
  608
  643
  681
  719
  760
  802
  846
  892
  940
  991
  1,043
  1,099
  1,156
  1,217
Discount rate, %
 
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.51
  9.99
  10.49
  11.01
  11.57
  12.14
  12.75
  13.39
  14.06
  14.76
  15.50
  16.27
  17.09
  17.94
  18.84
  19.78
  20.77
  21.81
  22.90
  24.04
  25.25
  26.51
  27.83
  29.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  316
  183
  184
  183
  180
  176
  169
  160
  150
  139
  126
  114
  101
  88
  75
  63
  52
  43
  34
  27
  20
  15
  11
  8
  5
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Meritage Homes Corporation designs and builds single-family homes in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Homebuilding and Financial Services. It acquires and develops land; and constructs, markets, and sells homes for various homebuyers, including first-time, move-up, active adult, and luxury under the Meritage Homes and Monterey Homes brand names. The company also provides warranty and customer services; and insurance and closing/settlement services for its homebuyers. It builds and sells homes in California, Texas, Arizona, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee. As of December 31, 2016, the company had 243 actively-selling communities. Meritage Homes Corporation was founded in 1985 and is based in Scottsdale, Arizona.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Meritage Homes (MTH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.4
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -15.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -13
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 18%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 6.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 77.1%
Total Debt to Equity 77.1%
Interest Coverage 110
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Return On Total Capital 6.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Return On Equity 11.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 10.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.1%
EBITDA Margin 7.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Operating Margin 7.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Net Profit Margin 4.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Effective Tax Rate 31.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

MTH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MTH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3042 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Meritage Homes. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Meritage Homes. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MTH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.1%, whose default value for MTH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Meritage Homes, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Meritage Homes.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MTH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MTH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Meritage Homes.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Meritage Homes. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MTH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MTH are equal to 0.5%.

Life of production assets of 1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Meritage Homes operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MTH is equal to -4.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1421 million for Meritage Homes - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.489 million for Meritage Homes is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Meritage Homes at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 10 Best Rated Biggest Home Builders In USA   [Mar-06-17 10:30AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ Top Housing Stocks to Buy in 2017   [Dec-17-16 10:06AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ The quest for home utility bills ofzero   [Oct-13-16 06:05AM  at MarketWatch]
▶ Meritage Homes Celebrates Delivery of Its 100,000th Home   [Oct-10-16 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Meritage Homes gives free home to Iraq War veteran   [Sep-23-16 02:45PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ The Quest for Home Utility Bills ofZero   [Sep-13-16 11:53PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ New luxury townhomes coming to Spring Branch   [Jun-22-16 09:50AM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of MTH Financial statements of MTH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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