Intrinsic value of Materialise ADR - MTLS

Previous Close

$13.03

  Intrinsic Value

$16.94

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+30%

  Value-price divergence*

-46%

Previous close

$13.03

 
Intrinsic value

$16.94

 
Up/down potential

+30%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-46%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MTLS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.04
  21.40
  19.76
  18.28
  16.96
  15.76
  14.68
  13.72
  12.84
  12.06
  11.35
  10.72
  10.15
  9.63
  9.17
  8.75
  8.38
  8.04
  7.74
  7.46
  7.22
  6.99
  6.79
  6.62
  6.45
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.95
  5.86
  5.77
Revenue, $m
  121
  147
  176
  208
  243
  282
  323
  367
  415
  465
  517
  573
  631
  692
  755
  821
  890
  962
  1,036
  1,113
  1,193
  1,277
  1,364
  1,454
  1,548
  1,645
  1,747
  1,853
  1,963
  2,078
  2,198
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  102
  122
  144
  168
  194
  223
  253
  286
  320
  356
  393
  433
  475
  518
  564
  611
  660
  711
  764
  819
  877
  936
  998
  1,063
  1,130
  1,199
  1,272
  1,348
  1,427
  1,509
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
Total operating expenses, $m
  121
  141
  162
  185
  210
  237
  267
  298
  332
  367
  405
  443
  484
  527
  572
  619
  667
  718
  770
  825
  881
  941
  1,001
  1,065
  1,132
  1,200
  1,271
  1,346
  1,424
  1,505
  1,589
Operating income, $m
  0
  6
  14
  23
  33
  44
  56
  69
  83
  97
  113
  130
  147
  164
  183
  202
  223
  244
  265
  288
  312
  336
  362
  389
  416
  445
  475
  507
  539
  574
  609
EBITDA, $m
  9
  14
  23
  34
  45
  58
  72
  86
  102
  119
  137
  155
  175
  195
  217
  239
  262
  286
  312
  338
  365
  393
  423
  454
  485
  519
  553
  589
  627
  666
  707
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1
  5
  13
  21
  30
  40
  51
  63
  76
  89
  103
  119
  135
  151
  168
  186
  205
  224
  244
  265
  287
  310
  334
  358
  384
  410
  438
  467
  497
  529
  562
Tax expense, $m
  2
  1
  3
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  55
  61
  66
  72
  78
  84
  90
  97
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  143
  152
Net income, $m
  -3
  4
  9
  15
  22
  30
  38
  46
  55
  65
  75
  87
  98
  110
  123
  136
  150
  164
  178
  194
  210
  226
  243
  261
  280
  300
  320
  341
  363
  386
  410

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  59
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  171
  136
  163
  193
  225
  261
  299
  340
  384
  430
  479
  530
  584
  640
  699
  760
  824
  890
  959
  1,031
  1,105
  1,182
  1,263
  1,346
  1,433
  1,524
  1,618
  1,716
  1,818
  1,924
  2,035
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  112
  136
  163
  193
  225
  261
  299
  340
  384
  430
  479
  530
  584
  640
  699
  760
  824
  890
  959
  1,031
  1,105
  1,182
  1,263
  1,346
  1,433
  1,524
  1,618
  1,716
  1,818
  1,924
  2,035
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.080
  1.081
  1.080
  1.078
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.079
  1.081
  1.081
  1.079
  1.081
  1.080
  1.081
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.081
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.079
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
Average production assets, $m
  54
  66
  78
  93
  109
  126
  144
  164
  185
  207
  231
  255
  281
  308
  337
  366
  397
  429
  462
  496
  532
  570
  608
  648
  690
  734
  779
  826
  876
  927
  980
Working capital, $m
  51
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
Total debt, $m
  36
  48
  67
  89
  113
  139
  167
  197
  229
  263
  299
  336
  376
  417
  460
  505
  551
  600
  650
  702
  757
  814
  872
  933
  997
  1,063
  1,132
  1,204
  1,279
  1,357
  1,438
Total liabilities, $m
  87
  100
  119
  141
  165
  191
  219
  249
  281
  315
  351
  388
  428
  469
  512
  557
  603
  652
  702
  754
  809
  866
  924
  985
  1,049
  1,115
  1,184
  1,256
  1,331
  1,409
  1,490
Total equity, $m
  83
  36
  44
  52
  60
  70
  80
  91
  103
  115
  128
  142
  157
  172
  187
  204
  221
  239
  257
  276
  296
  317
  338
  361
  384
  408
  434
  460
  487
  516
  545
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  170
  136
  163
  193
  225
  261
  299
  340
  384
  430
  479
  530
  585
  641
  699
  761
  824
  891
  959
  1,030
  1,105
  1,183
  1,262
  1,346
  1,433
  1,523
  1,618
  1,716
  1,818
  1,925
  2,035
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.434
  1.300
  1.540
  1.720
  1.870
  1.990
  2.080
  2.160
  2.230
  2.280
  2.330
  2.370
  2.400
  2.430
  2.450
  2.480
  2.500
  2.510
  2.530
  2.540
  2.560
  2.570
  2.580
  2.590
  2.600
  2.600
  2.610
  2.620
  2.620
  2.630
  2.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.214
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268
  0.268

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -3
  4
  9
  15
  22
  30
  38
  46
  55
  65
  75
  87
  98
  110
  123
  136
  150
  164
  178
  194
  210
  226
  243
  261
  280
  300
  320
  341
  363
  386
  410
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
Funds from operations, $m
  10
  11
  18
  26
  34
  43
  53
  63
  75
  87
  99
  113
  127
  141
  157
  173
  189
  207
  225
  243
  263
  283
  304
  326
  349
  373
  398
  424
  451
  479
  508
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  9
  12
  18
  26
  34
  44
  54
  64
  76
  88
  100
  114
  128
  142
  158
  174
  190
  208
  226
  245
  264
  285
  306
  328
  351
  375
  400
  425
  453
  481
  510
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -86
  -90
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
Free cash flow, $m
  -4
  -5
  -1
  4
  9
  16
  23
  30
  38
  47
  56
  66
  76
  87
  99
  111
  123
  136
  150
  164
  179
  194
  210
  227
  244
  262
  281
  300
  321
  342
  364
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  11
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  10
  21
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  5
  15
  19
  26
  33
  42
  51
  60
  70
  81
  92
  103
  116
  128
  142
  155
  170
  185
  200
  216
  233
  251
  269
  288
  308
  328
  350
  372
  395
  420
  445
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  53
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  62
  11
  18
  25
  32
  40
  49
  58
  68
  79
  90
  101
  113
  126
  139
  153
  167
  182
  197
  213
  230
  247
  266
  284
  304
  324
  346
  368
  391
  416
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  59
  10
  15
  20
  25
  29
  33
  37
  39
  41
  43
  43
  43
  42
  41
  39
  36
  33
  30
  27
  24
  21
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8
  98.8

Materialise NV provides additive manufacturing software and 3D printing services in Europe, the Americas, and Asia. The company’s Materialise Software segment offers proprietary software worldwide through programs and platforms that enable and enhance the functionality of 3D printers and of 3D printing operations. Its software interfaces between various types of 3D printers, and various software applications and capturing technologies, including computer-aided design packages and 3D scanners, by enabling data preparation and process planning. This segment serves 3D printing machine original equipment manufacturers; manufacturers in automotive, aerospace, consumer goods, and hearing aid industries; and 3D printing service bureaus through its sales force, Website, and third-party distributors. Its Materialise Medical segment provides medical software that allows medical-image based analysis and engineering, as well as patient-specific design of surgical devices and implants to research institutes, renowned hospitals, and medical device companies; and clinical services. This segment has collaboration agreements with Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc.; Encore Medical, L.P.; and DePuy Synthes Companies of Johnson & Johnson, as well as with Global Orthopaedic Technology Pty Ltd, Limacorporate Spa, and Mathys AG. It serves medical device companies, hospitals, universities, and industrial companies through its direct sales force, Website, and picture archiving and communication system partners. The company’s Materialise Manufacturing segment primarily offers 3D printing services to industrial and commercial customers. It provides design and engineering services, and rapid prototyping and additive manufacturing of production parts; and engineers and 3D prints fixtures that allow automobile manufacturers and their suppliers to enhance the quality control and efficiency of their manufacturing processes. Materialise NV was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Leuven, Belgium.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Materialise ADR (MTLS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -205.6
Price to Sales 5.1
Price to Book 7.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 68.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -102.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 36.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 38%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 10
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 36.1%
Total Debt to Equity 43.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Total Capital -2.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Return On Equity -3.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.1%
EBITDA Margin 7.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Net Profit Margin -2.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1%
Effective Tax Rate -200%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -66.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

MTLS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MTLS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $121 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Materialise ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Materialise ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MTLS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MTLS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Materialise ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Materialise ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MTLS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 69.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $38 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MTLS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Materialise ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Materialise ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MTLS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MTLS are equal to 44.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Materialise ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MTLS is equal to -1.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $83 million for Materialise ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.378 million for Materialise ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Materialise ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Materialise reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 10:00PM  Associated Press]
▶ Investor Network: Materialise NV to Host Earnings Call   [May-09-17 07:15AM  Accesswire]
▶ Materialise reports 1Q loss   [06:40AM  Associated Press]
▶ Materialise NV to Report First Quarter 2017 Earnings   [Apr-26-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Materialise posts 4Q profit   [06:46AM  Associated Press]
▶ Materialise posts 3Q loss   [06:41AM  AP]
▶ Materialise reports 2Q loss   [06:37AM  AP]
▶ MATERIALISE NV Financials   [May-05-16 01:04PM  EDGAR Online Financials]
▶ Materialise posts 4Q profit   [07:01AM  AP]
▶ Three of the Biggest 3D Printing Companies   [Feb-04-16 02:01PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Materialise reports 3Q loss   [06:41AM  AP]
Stock chart of MTLS Financial statements of MTLS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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