Intrinsic value of Meritor - MTOR

Previous Close

$19.02

  Intrinsic Value

$1.87

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

  Value-price divergence*

-90%

Previous close

$19.02

 
Intrinsic value

$1.87

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-90%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MTOR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -8.73
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,199
  3,263
  3,338
  3,424
  3,520
  3,627
  3,744
  3,871
  4,009
  4,158
  4,318
  4,488
  4,671
  4,865
  5,071
  5,289
  5,521
  5,767
  6,026
  6,300
  6,590
  6,895
  7,217
  7,557
  7,915
  8,291
  8,688
  9,106
  9,545
  10,007
  10,494
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,141
  3,213
  3,294
  3,386
  3,487
  3,599
  3,720
  3,851
  3,993
  4,144
  4,268
  4,441
  4,625
  4,821
  5,029
  5,250
  5,483
  5,730
  5,990
  6,266
  6,556
  6,862
  7,185
  7,525
  7,884
  8,261
  8,658
  9,076
  9,515
  9,977
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,995
  3,141
  3,213
  3,294
  3,386
  3,487
  3,599
  3,720
  3,851
  3,993
  4,144
  4,268
  4,441
  4,625
  4,821
  5,029
  5,250
  5,483
  5,730
  5,990
  6,266
  6,556
  6,862
  7,185
  7,525
  7,884
  8,261
  8,658
  9,076
  9,515
  9,977
Operating income, $m
  204
  122
  125
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  158
  166
  173
  221
  230
  239
  249
  260
  272
  284
  296
  310
  324
  339
  355
  372
  389
  408
  427
  448
  470
  492
  516
EBITDA, $m
  271
  197
  202
  207
  213
  219
  226
  234
  242
  251
  261
  271
  282
  294
  307
  320
  334
  349
  364
  381
  398
  417
  436
  457
  478
  501
  525
  550
  577
  605
  634
Interest expense (income), $m
  71
  69
  40
  44
  48
  52
  58
  63
  69
  76
  83
  91
  99
  108
  118
  128
  138
  149
  161
  174
  187
  201
  216
  231
  248
  265
  283
  303
  323
  344
  366
Earnings before tax, $m
  155
  53
  85
  86
  86
  87
  88
  88
  89
  89
  90
  130
  130
  131
  132
  133
  133
  134
  135
  136
  137
  138
  139
  140
  141
  143
  144
  145
  147
  148
  150
Tax expense, $m
  -424
  14
  23
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  24
  24
  24
  35
  35
  35
  36
  36
  36
  36
  37
  37
  37
  37
  38
  38
  38
  39
  39
  39
  40
  40
  40
Net income, $m
  573
  39
  62
  63
  63
  63
  64
  64
  65
  65
  66
  95
  95
  96
  96
  97
  97
  98
  99
  99
  100
  101
  102
  102
  103
  104
  105
  106
  107
  108
  109

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  160
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,494
  2,543
  2,602
  2,669
  2,744
  2,827
  2,918
  3,017
  3,125
  3,241
  3,365
  3,498
  3,640
  3,792
  3,952
  4,123
  4,303
  4,495
  4,697
  4,911
  5,136
  5,374
  5,625
  5,890
  6,169
  6,463
  6,772
  7,097
  7,440
  7,800
  8,179
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,334
  2,543
  2,602
  2,669
  2,744
  2,827
  2,918
  3,017
  3,125
  3,241
  3,365
  3,498
  3,640
  3,792
  3,952
  4,123
  4,303
  4,495
  4,697
  4,911
  5,136
  5,374
  5,625
  5,890
  6,169
  6,463
  6,772
  7,097
  7,440
  7,800
  8,179
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.371
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
  1.283
Average production assets, $m
  458
  467
  477
  490
  503
  519
  535
  554
  573
  595
  617
  642
  668
  696
  725
  756
  790
  825
  862
  901
  942
  986
  1,032
  1,081
  1,132
  1,186
  1,242
  1,302
  1,365
  1,431
  1,501
Working capital, $m
  148
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
Total debt, $m
  996
  580
  633
  693
  760
  835
  917
  1,007
  1,104
  1,208
  1,320
  1,440
  1,567
  1,703
  1,848
  2,001
  2,164
  2,336
  2,518
  2,711
  2,914
  3,128
  3,354
  3,592
  3,843
  4,107
  4,386
  4,678
  4,987
  5,311
  5,652
Total liabilities, $m
  2,705
  2,289
  2,342
  2,402
  2,469
  2,544
  2,626
  2,716
  2,813
  2,917
  3,029
  3,149
  3,276
  3,412
  3,557
  3,710
  3,873
  4,045
  4,227
  4,420
  4,623
  4,837
  5,063
  5,301
  5,552
  5,816
  6,095
  6,387
  6,696
  7,020
  7,361
Total equity, $m
  -211
  254
  260
  267
  274
  283
  292
  302
  313
  324
  337
  350
  364
  379
  395
  412
  430
  449
  470
  491
  514
  537
  563
  589
  617
  646
  677
  710
  744
  780
  818
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,494
  2,543
  2,602
  2,669
  2,743
  2,827
  2,918
  3,018
  3,126
  3,241
  3,366
  3,499
  3,640
  3,791
  3,952
  4,122
  4,303
  4,494
  4,697
  4,911
  5,137
  5,374
  5,626
  5,890
  6,169
  6,462
  6,772
  7,097
  7,440
  7,800
  8,179
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -4.720
  2.280
  2.430
  2.600
  2.770
  2.950
  3.140
  3.340
  3.530
  3.730
  3.920
  4.110
  4.310
  4.490
  4.680
  4.850
  5.030
  5.200
  5.360
  5.520
  5.670
  5.820
  5.960
  6.100
  6.230
  6.360
  6.480
  6.590
  6.700
  6.810
  6.910
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.159
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  573
  39
  62
  63
  63
  63
  64
  64
  65
  65
  66
  95
  95
  96
  96
  97
  97
  98
  99
  99
  100
  101
  102
  102
  103
  104
  105
  106
  107
  108
  109
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  67
  76
  77
  78
  79
  80
  81
  83
  84
  86
  88
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  107
  113
  118
Funds from operations, $m
  226
  114
  139
  140
  142
  143
  145
  147
  149
  151
  153
  145
  148
  151
  153
  156
  160
  163
  167
  170
  174
  178
  183
  188
  192
  198
  203
  209
  215
  221
  227
Change in working capital, $m
  22
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  204
  114
  139
  140
  142
  143
  145
  147
  149
  151
  153
  145
  148
  150
  153
  156
  159
  163
  166
  170
  174
  178
  183
  187
  192
  197
  203
  208
  214
  220
  227
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -113
New CAPEX, $m
  -93
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -86
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -64
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -173
  -183
Free cash flow, $m
  118
  69
  91
  90
  89
  88
  87
  86
  85
  85
  84
  72
  71
  70
  69
  68
  67
  66
  64
  63
  62
  60
  59
  57
  56
  54
  52
  51
  49
  47
  45
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -55
  -416
  53
  60
  68
  75
  82
  89
  97
  104
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  153
  163
  172
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  238
  251
  264
  278
  293
  308
  324
  341
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -81
  427
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -152
  11
  53
  60
  68
  75
  82
  89
  97
  104
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  153
  163
  172
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  238
  251
  264
  278
  293
  308
  324
  341
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -33
  80
  144
  150
  157
  163
  170
  176
  182
  189
  195
  192
  199
  206
  214
  221
  229
  238
  246
  255
  265
  275
  285
  296
  307
  318
  331
  344
  357
  371
  386
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -460
  -465
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -386
  138
  144
  149
  155
  160
  166
  172
  177
  183
  178
  185
  191
  197
  204
  211
  219
  226
  234
  242
  251
  260
  269
  279
  289
  300
  311
  323
  335
  348
Discount rate, %
 
  13.10
  13.76
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.56
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.34
  22.41
  23.53
  24.70
  25.94
  27.23
  28.60
  30.03
  31.53
  33.10
  34.76
  36.50
  38.32
  40.24
  42.25
  44.36
  46.58
  48.91
  51.35
  53.92
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -341
  107
  96
  85
  74
  63
  53
  44
  36
  29
  21
  16
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Meritor, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, markets, distributes, sells, services, and supports integrated systems, modules, and components to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and the aftermarket for the commercial vehicle, transportation, and industrial sectors worldwide. It operates through two segments, Commercial Truck & Industrial; and Aftermarket & Trailer. The Commercial Truck & Industrial segment supplies drivetrain systems and components, including axles, drivelines, and braking and suspension systems primarily for medium-and heavy-duty trucks, off-highway, military, construction, bus and coach, fire and emergency, and other applications. This segment also engages in aftermarket business. The Aftermarket & Trailer segment supplies axles, brakes, drivelines, suspension parts, and other replacement and remanufactured parts to commercial vehicle aftermarket customers. This segment also offers various undercarriage products and systems for trailer applications. The company sells its products under the Meritor, Meritor Wabco, Euclid, Trucktechnic, and Meritor AllFit brands primarily to OEMs and its parts marketing operations, and dealers, as well as for other independent distributors and service garages in the aftermarket industry. The company was formerly known as ArvinMeritor, Inc. and changed its name to Meritor, Inc. in March 2011. Meritor, Inc. was founded in 1921 and is headquartered in Troy, Michigan.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Meritor (MTOR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 2.9
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book -7.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 17.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 11.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 11
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -465.4%
Total Debt to Equity -472%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 35.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Return On Total Capital 98.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 65%
Return On Equity -129.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -58%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 13.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
EBITDA Margin 9.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Operating Margin 6.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Net Profit Margin 17.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Effective Tax Rate -273.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -87.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

MTOR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MTOR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3199 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Meritor. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Meritor. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MTOR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.1%, whose default value for MTOR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Meritor, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Meritor.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MTOR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MTOR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.9% for Meritor.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Meritor. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MTOR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MTOR are equal to 14.3%.

Life of production assets of 12.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Meritor operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MTOR is equal to 0.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-211 million for Meritor - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 86.777 million for Meritor is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Meritor at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Meritor: Cramer's Top Takeaways   [06:37AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Meritor beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Aug-02-17 10:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Meritor, Inc. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 02:56PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Meritor, Inc. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Meritor, Inc. Value Analysis (NYSE:MTOR) : May 16, 2017   [May-16-17 01:12PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Meritor misses 2Q profit forecasts   [May-03-17 08:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Auto Parts Stocks to Rev Up Your Portfolio   [Mar-14-17 03:30PM  Zacks]
▶ Meritor Earns Diamond Supplier Award from Navistar   [Feb-20-17 04:36PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is ANI Pharmaceuticals Inc (ANIP) a Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-04-16 06:30PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying Meritor Inc (MTOR)   [Dec-02-16 04:25AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of MTOR Financial statements of MTOR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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