Intrinsic value of Materion - MTRN

Previous Close

$49.60

  Intrinsic Value

$5.08

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$49.60

 
Intrinsic value

$5.08

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MTRN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.46
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  969
  988
  1,011
  1,037
  1,066
  1,099
  1,134
  1,173
  1,214
  1,260
  1,308
  1,360
  1,415
  1,474
  1,536
  1,602
  1,672
  1,747
  1,825
  1,908
  1,996
  2,089
  2,186
  2,289
  2,397
  2,512
  2,632
  2,758
  2,891
  3,031
  3,179
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  671
  686
  704
  723
  745
  769
  794
  822
  853
  885
  911
  948
  987
  1,029
  1,074
  1,121
  1,170
  1,223
  1,279
  1,337
  1,399
  1,465
  1,534
  1,606
  1,683
  1,763
  1,848
  1,937
  2,031
  2,130
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  298
  306
  313
  321
  329
  337
  346
  355
  363
  373
  382
  391
  401
  411
  421
  432
  443
  454
  465
  477
  489
  501
  514
  526
  539
  553
  567
  581
  596
  610
Total operating expenses, $m
  942
  969
  992
  1,017
  1,044
  1,074
  1,106
  1,140
  1,177
  1,216
  1,258
  1,293
  1,339
  1,388
  1,440
  1,495
  1,553
  1,613
  1,677
  1,744
  1,814
  1,888
  1,966
  2,048
  2,132
  2,222
  2,316
  2,415
  2,518
  2,627
  2,740
Operating income, $m
  27
  19
  19
  20
  22
  25
  28
  32
  38
  44
  50
  67
  75
  85
  96
  107
  120
  134
  148
  165
  182
  200
  220
  242
  265
  289
  315
  343
  373
  405
  438
EBITDA, $m
  73
  63
  64
  66
  69
  73
  77
  83
  90
  97
  106
  115
  126
  138
  151
  165
  180
  196
  214
  233
  253
  275
  299
  324
  351
  379
  410
  442
  477
  513
  552
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  79
  86
  93
  100
  107
  115
  123
Earnings before tax, $m
  25
  18
  17
  17
  17
  18
  20
  22
  25
  28
  32
  46
  52
  58
  65
  73
  82
  91
  102
  113
  125
  139
  153
  169
  186
  204
  223
  244
  266
  290
  315
Tax expense, $m
  -1
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  34
  37
  41
  46
  50
  55
  60
  66
  72
  78
  85
Net income, $m
  26
  13
  13
  12
  13
  13
  14
  16
  18
  21
  24
  34
  38
  42
  47
  53
  60
  66
  74
  82
  91
  101
  112
  123
  135
  149
  163
  178
  194
  211
  230

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  741
  724
  741
  760
  781
  805
  831
  859
  890
  923
  958
  996
  1,036
  1,080
  1,125
  1,174
  1,225
  1,280
  1,337
  1,398
  1,462
  1,530
  1,602
  1,677
  1,756
  1,840
  1,928
  2,021
  2,118
  2,221
  2,329
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  710
  724
  741
  760
  781
  805
  831
  859
  890
  923
  958
  996
  1,036
  1,080
  1,125
  1,174
  1,225
  1,280
  1,337
  1,398
  1,462
  1,530
  1,602
  1,677
  1,756
  1,840
  1,928
  2,021
  2,118
  2,221
  2,329
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.365
  1.365
  1.364
  1.364
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.366
  1.364
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.366
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
  1.365
Average production assets, $m
  270
  276
  282
  289
  297
  307
  316
  327
  339
  351
  365
  379
  395
  411
  429
  447
  467
  487
  509
  532
  557
  583
  610
  639
  669
  701
  734
  770
  807
  846
  887
Working capital, $m
  255
  229
  235
  241
  247
  255
  263
  272
  282
  292
  303
  315
  328
  342
  356
  372
  388
  405
  423
  443
  463
  485
  507
  531
  556
  583
  611
  640
  671
  703
  737
Total debt, $m
  4
  8
  13
  20
  27
  35
  44
  54
  65
  76
  89
  102
  116
  131
  146
  163
  181
  200
  220
  241
  263
  286
  311
  337
  365
  394
  424
  456
  490
  525
  563
Total liabilities, $m
  247
  251
  256
  263
  270
  278
  287
  297
  308
  319
  332
  345
  359
  374
  389
  406
  424
  443
  463
  484
  506
  529
  554
  580
  608
  637
  667
  699
  733
  768
  806
Total equity, $m
  494
  474
  484
  497
  511
  526
  543
  562
  582
  603
  627
  651
  678
  706
  736
  768
  801
  837
  875
  914
  956
  1,001
  1,047
  1,097
  1,149
  1,203
  1,261
  1,322
  1,385
  1,452
  1,523
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  741
  725
  740
  760
  781
  804
  830
  859
  890
  922
  959
  996
  1,037
  1,080
  1,125
  1,174
  1,225
  1,280
  1,338
  1,398
  1,462
  1,530
  1,601
  1,677
  1,757
  1,840
  1,928
  2,021
  2,118
  2,220
  2,329
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.008
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.070
  0.080
  0.100
  0.110
  0.130
  0.140
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.200
  0.210
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.652
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654
  0.654

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  26
  13
  13
  12
  13
  13
  14
  16
  18
  21
  24
  34
  38
  42
  47
  53
  60
  66
  74
  82
  91
  101
  112
  123
  135
  149
  163
  178
  194
  211
  230
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  46
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  55
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  114
Funds from operations, $m
  69
  58
  58
  58
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  79
  82
  88
  95
  102
  110
  119
  129
  139
  151
  163
  176
  190
  205
  221
  238
  257
  277
  298
  320
  344
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
Cash from operations, $m
  67
  53
  52
  52
  53
  54
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  70
  75
  81
  88
  95
  103
  112
  121
  131
  142
  154
  167
  181
  196
  212
  229
  247
  267
  287
  309
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -35
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
New CAPEX, $m
  -27
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -37
  -41
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
Free cash flow, $m
  30
  13
  11
  9
  7
  7
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  11
  14
  18
  22
  26
  31
  37
  43
  50
  57
  65
  74
  84
  94
  106
  118
  131
  145
  160
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -10
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -14
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  12
  13
  13
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  15
  17
  16
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  22
  22
  25
  29
  34
  38
  44
  50
  57
  64
  72
  81
  90
  100
  111
  123
  136
  150
  165
  180
  197
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -11
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  30
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  38
  6
  3
  2
  2
  1
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -3
  -1
  1
  4
  7
  10
  14
  19
  24
  30
  36
  43
  51
  59
  69
  79
  89
  101
  113
  127
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  36
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.6
  99.4
  99.2
  99.0
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9
  98.9

Materion Corporation, through its subsidiaries, is an integrated producer of engineered materials used in a range of electrical, electronic, thermal, and structural applications. The Company operates in four segments: Performance Alloys and Composites, Advanced Materials, Precision Coatings, and Other. The Performance Alloys and Composites segment consists of businesses, such as Performance Metals and Technical Materials. The Advanced Materials segment produces chemicals, microelectronics packaging, precious metal, non-precious metal and specialty metal products. The Precision Coatings segment includes units, such as Precision Optics and Large Area Coatings. Its products include inorganic chemicals and powders, specialty coatings, specialty engineered beryllium and copper-based alloys, beryllium composites, ceramics and engineered clad, and plated metal systems.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Materion (MTRN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.1
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -10%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 31
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.6%
Total Debt to Equity 0.8%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Total Capital 5.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Equity 5.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
EBITDA Margin 7.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Operating Margin 2.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Net Profit Margin 2.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Effective Tax Rate -4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Payout Ratio 30.8%

MTRN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MTRN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $969 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Materion. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Materion. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MTRN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MTRN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Materion, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Materion.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MTRN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 67.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $291 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MTRN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 23.5% for Materion.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Materion. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MTRN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MTRN are equal to 27.9%.

Life of production assets of 7.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Materion operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MTRN is equal to 23.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $494 million for Materion - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 20.039 million for Materion is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Materion at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Materions SupremEX® Receives Second SAE-AMS Specification   [Nov-16-17 09:35AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Materion Corp. : November 9, 2017   [Nov-09-17 12:57PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Is It Time To Buy Materion Corporation (MTRN)?   [Nov-03-17 10:49AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Materion tops Street 3Q forecasts   [08:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ Materion Corporation Conference Call Scheduled   [Oct-13-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Materion Corp. : August 11, 2017   [Aug-11-17 06:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Materion Corporation Declares Third Quarter Dividend   [Aug-02-17 03:17PM  Business Wire]
▶ Materion beats 2Q profit forecasts   [12:13AM  Associated Press]
▶ Materion Corporation Conference Call Scheduled   [Jul-14-17 09:07AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Materion Corp. : May 5, 2017   [May-05-17 04:21PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Materion Corporation Increases Quarterly Cash Dividend   [May-03-17 11:36AM  Business Wire]
▶ Materion beats 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-28-17 08:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ Materion Corporation Conference Call Scheduled   [Apr-17-17 11:36AM  Business Wire]
▶ Materion misses Street 4Q forecasts   [07:58AM  Associated Press]
▶ Materion Corporation Conference Call Scheduled   [Feb-03-17 08:40AM  Business Wire]
▶ Materion ProIRTM Filters Allow Rapid R&D Prototyping   [Jan-30-17 01:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Should You Avoid Materion Corp (MTRN)?   [Dec-14-16 11:20AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Materion Corporation Conference Call Scheduled   [Oct-18-16 01:51PM  Business Wire]
▶ Introducing Materion COVERexpress   [Oct-04-16 11:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Materion Corporation Declares Third Quarter Dividend   [Aug-03-16 04:05PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of MTRN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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