Intrinsic value of Manitowoc - MTW

Previous Close

$39.30

  Intrinsic Value

$0.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

Previous close

$39.30

 
Intrinsic value

$0.52

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MTW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -13.56
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,613
  1,645
  1,683
  1,726
  1,775
  1,829
  1,888
  1,952
  2,022
  2,097
  2,177
  2,263
  2,355
  2,453
  2,557
  2,667
  2,784
  2,908
  3,038
  3,177
  3,323
  3,477
  3,639
  3,810
  3,991
  4,181
  4,381
  4,591
  4,813
  5,046
  5,291
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  330
  337
  345
  354
  364
  374
  386
  399
  412
  427
  413
  430
  447
  466
  486
  508
  530
  554
  579
  606
  634
  664
  695
  728
  763
  799
  837
  878
  920
  965
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,579
  1,618
  1,658
  1,700
  1,742
  1,786
  1,831
  1,876
  1,923
  1,971
  2,021
  2,071
  2,123
  2,176
  2,230
  2,286
  2,343
  2,402
  2,462
  2,523
  2,587
  2,651
  2,718
  2,785
  2,855
  2,926
  3,000
  3,075
  3,151
  3,230
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,843
  1,909
  1,955
  2,003
  2,054
  2,106
  2,160
  2,217
  2,275
  2,335
  2,398
  2,434
  2,501
  2,570
  2,642
  2,716
  2,794
  2,873
  2,956
  3,041
  3,129
  3,221
  3,315
  3,413
  3,513
  3,618
  3,725
  3,837
  3,953
  4,071
  4,195
Operating income, $m
  -230
  -263
  -272
  -277
  -279
  -277
  -272
  -265
  -253
  -239
  -221
  -170
  -146
  -117
  -86
  -50
  -10
  34
  82
  135
  193
  256
  324
  398
  477
  563
  655
  754
  860
  974
  1,096
EBITDA, $m
  -181
  -203
  -211
  -215
  -216
  -213
  -207
  -198
  -186
  -170
  -151
  -128
  -102
  -72
  -38
  0
  42
  88
  139
  194
  255
  321
  392
  469
  551
  641
  737
  839
  950
  1,068
  1,194
Interest expense (income), $m
  50
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  80
  85
  91
  97
  104
  110
  118
  125
  133
Earnings before tax, $m
  -268
  -280
  -289
  -296
  -299
  -299
  -296
  -290
  -281
  -269
  -254
  -206
  -184
  -159
  -130
  -98
  -62
  -22
  22
  71
  124
  182
  244
  313
  386
  466
  552
  644
  743
  849
  963
Tax expense, $m
  101
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  6
  19
  33
  49
  66
  84
  104
  126
  149
  174
  201
  229
  260
Net income, $m
  -376
  -280
  -289
  -296
  -299
  -299
  -296
  -290
  -281
  -269
  -254
  -206
  -184
  -159
  -130
  -98
  -62
  -22
  16
  52
  90
  133
  178
  228
  282
  340
  403
  470
  542
  620
  703

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  70
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,518
  1,477
  1,511
  1,550
  1,593
  1,642
  1,695
  1,752
  1,815
  1,882
  1,954
  2,032
  2,114
  2,202
  2,295
  2,394
  2,499
  2,610
  2,728
  2,852
  2,983
  3,121
  3,267
  3,420
  3,582
  3,753
  3,932
  4,121
  4,320
  4,530
  4,750
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,448
  1,477
  1,511
  1,550
  1,593
  1,642
  1,695
  1,752
  1,815
  1,882
  1,954
  2,032
  2,114
  2,202
  2,295
  2,394
  2,499
  2,610
  2,728
  2,852
  2,983
  3,121
  3,267
  3,420
  3,582
  3,753
  3,932
  4,121
  4,320
  4,530
  4,750
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
Average production assets, $m
  476
  485
  497
  509
  524
  539
  557
  576
  596
  619
  642
  668
  695
  724
  754
  787
  821
  858
  896
  937
  980
  1,026
  1,074
  1,124
  1,177
  1,233
  1,292
  1,354
  1,420
  1,489
  1,561
Working capital, $m
  337
  285
  291
  299
  307
  316
  327
  338
  350
  363
  377
  392
  407
  424
  442
  461
  482
  503
  526
  550
  575
  601
  630
  659
  690
  723
  758
  794
  833
  873
  915
Total debt, $m
  282
  288
  310
  334
  362
  392
  426
  462
  502
  544
  590
  639
  691
  747
  806
  868
  934
  1,005
  1,079
  1,157
  1,240
  1,327
  1,420
  1,517
  1,619
  1,727
  1,840
  1,960
  2,085
  2,218
  2,357
Total liabilities, $m
  927
  933
  955
  979
  1,007
  1,037
  1,071
  1,107
  1,147
  1,189
  1,235
  1,284
  1,336
  1,392
  1,451
  1,513
  1,579
  1,650
  1,724
  1,802
  1,885
  1,972
  2,065
  2,162
  2,264
  2,372
  2,485
  2,605
  2,730
  2,863
  3,002
Total equity, $m
  591
  543
  556
  570
  586
  604
  624
  645
  668
  693
  719
  748
  778
  810
  845
  881
  920
  961
  1,004
  1,049
  1,098
  1,148
  1,202
  1,259
  1,318
  1,381
  1,447
  1,517
  1,590
  1,667
  1,748
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,518
  1,476
  1,511
  1,549
  1,593
  1,641
  1,695
  1,752
  1,815
  1,882
  1,954
  2,032
  2,114
  2,202
  2,296
  2,394
  2,499
  2,611
  2,728
  2,851
  2,983
  3,120
  3,267
  3,421
  3,582
  3,753
  3,932
  4,122
  4,320
  4,530
  4,750
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.477
  0.530
  0.560
  0.590
  0.620
  0.650
  0.680
  0.720
  0.750
  0.790
  0.820
  0.850
  0.890
  0.920
  0.950
  0.990
  1.020
  1.050
  1.070
  1.100
  1.130
  1.160
  1.180
  1.200
  1.230
  1.250
  1.270
  1.290
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.360
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -376
  -280
  -289
  -296
  -299
  -299
  -296
  -290
  -281
  -269
  -254
  -206
  -184
  -159
  -130
  -98
  -62
  -22
  16
  52
  90
  133
  178
  228
  282
  340
  403
  470
  542
  620
  703
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  49
  61
  61
  62
  63
  64
  65
  66
  68
  69
  70
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
Funds from operations, $m
  -191
  -219
  -228
  -234
  -236
  -235
  -231
  -224
  -214
  -200
  -184
  -164
  -140
  -113
  -83
  -49
  -10
  32
  73
  111
  152
  197
  246
  299
  356
  418
  484
  555
  632
  713
  801
Change in working capital, $m
  -19
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
Cash from operations, $m
  -172
  -225
  -234
  -241
  -244
  -244
  -241
  -235
  -226
  -213
  -198
  -179
  -156
  -130
  -101
  -68
  -31
  10
  50
  87
  127
  170
  218
  269
  325
  385
  449
  519
  593
  673
  759
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
New CAPEX, $m
  -46
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -42
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
Free cash flow, $m
  -214
  -264
  -276
  -285
  -291
  -293
  -293
  -289
  -282
  -273
  -260
  -244
  -225
  -203
  -177
  -148
  -115
  -78
  -43
  -11
  25
  63
  105
  151
  201
  255
  313
  375
  443
  515
  593
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -1,125
  18
  21
  25
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  9
  290
  302
  310
  315
  317
  316
  311
  304
  294
  281
  234
  214
  191
  165
  135
  101
  63
  27
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  219
  308
  323
  335
  343
  348
  349
  347
  343
  337
  327
  283
  266
  246
  224
  198
  167
  133
  101
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  126
  132
  139
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  66
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  59
  68
  108
  151
  198
  248
  303
  363
  426
  495
  568
  647
  732
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  251
  -290
  -302
  -310
  -315
  -317
  -316
  -311
  -304
  -294
  -281
  -234
  -214
  -191
  -165
  -135
  -101
  -63
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  58
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -187
  -255
  -260
  -263
  -263
  -259
  -253
  -243
  -230
  -215
  -196
  -173
  -147
  -118
  -85
  -48
  -7
  15
  22
  59
  100
  144
  192
  244
  300
  360
  425
  495
  570
  651
Discount rate, %
 
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -174
  -219
  -205
  -189
  -170
  -150
  -129
  -109
  -89
  -71
  -55
  -41
  -29
  -19
  -11
  -5
  -1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.5
  89.2
  84.2
  79.5
  75.1
  71.2
  67.5
  64.3
  61.4
  58.9
  56.9
  55.2
  53.8
  52.6
  51.7
  51.1
  50.7
  50.6
  50.6
  50.6
  50.6
  50.6
  50.6
  50.6
  50.6
  50.6
  50.6
  50.6
  50.6
  50.6

The Manitowoc Company, Inc. is a provider of engineered lifting equipment for the construction industry. The Company operates through the Crane business segment. It designs, manufactures and distributes a line of crawler-mounted lattice-boom cranes, which it sells under the Manitowoc brand name. It also designs and manufactures a line of top-slewing and self-erecting tower cranes, which it sells under the Potain brand name. It designs and manufactures mobile telescopic cranes, which it sells under the Grove brand name and a line of hydraulically powered telescopic boom trucks, which it sells under the National Crane brand name. It also provides crane product parts and services and crane rebuilding, remanufacturing and training services, which are delivered under the Manitowoc Crane Care brand name. Its crane products are used in a range of applications, including energy production/distribution and utilities, petrochemical and industrial projects, and infrastructure applications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Manitowoc (MTW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -14.6
Price to Sales 3.4
Price to Book 9.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -32
Price to Free Cash Flow -25.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -13.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -16.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 45.7%
Total Debt to Equity 47.7%
Interest Coverage -4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -12.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.5%
Return On Total Capital -24.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -5%
Return On Equity -52.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.9%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 15.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
EBITDA Margin -10.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Operating Margin -14.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -16.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.8%
Net Profit Margin -23.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.5%
Effective Tax Rate -37.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

MTW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MTW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1613 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Manitowoc. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Manitowoc. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MTW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for MTW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Manitowoc, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Manitowoc.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MTW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 20.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1540 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MTW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6% for Manitowoc.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Manitowoc. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MTW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MTW are equal to 29.5%.

Life of production assets of 15.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Manitowoc operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MTW is equal to 17.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $591 million for Manitowoc - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 140.468 million for Manitowoc is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Manitowoc at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Carl Icahn: Once Cleaned Up, Xerox Should Be Acquired   [Dec-12-17 09:33AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Manitowoc beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Nov-06-17 05:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ Here's Why Manitowoc Company Soared 40% in August   [Sep-11-17 07:07AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Manitowoc tops 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-07-17 11:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Manitowoc Company Stock Just Jumped 15%   [Aug-02-17 04:04PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Manitowoc reports 1Q loss   [May-08-17 05:00PM  Associated Press]
▶ How to play Trump's infrastructure plans   [Mar-31-17 06:33AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Is There Any Growth Left for Manitowoc's Stock in 2017?   [Feb-09-17 01:01PM  Motley Fool]
Financial statements of MTW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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