Intrinsic value of Minerals Technologies - MTX

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$73.40

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$73.40

 
Intrinsic value

$44.46

 
Up/down potential

-39%

 
Rating

sell

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MTX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -8.90
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,638
  1,671
  1,709
  1,753
  1,802
  1,857
  1,917
  1,982
  2,053
  2,129
  2,211
  2,298
  2,392
  2,491
  2,596
  2,708
  2,827
  2,953
  3,086
  3,226
  3,374
  3,531
  3,696
  3,869
  4,053
  4,246
  4,449
  4,662
  4,887
  5,124
  5,373
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,487
  1,520
  1,557
  1,598
  1,644
  1,695
  1,750
  1,809
  1,874
  1,943
  1,938
  2,017
  2,101
  2,190
  2,284
  2,384
  2,490
  2,603
  2,721
  2,846
  2,978
  3,117
  3,264
  3,418
  3,581
  3,752
  3,933
  4,122
  4,322
  4,532
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,417
  1,487
  1,520
  1,557
  1,598
  1,644
  1,695
  1,750
  1,809
  1,874
  1,943
  1,938
  2,017
  2,101
  2,190
  2,284
  2,384
  2,490
  2,603
  2,721
  2,846
  2,978
  3,117
  3,264
  3,418
  3,581
  3,752
  3,933
  4,122
  4,322
  4,532
Operating income, $m
  221
  184
  190
  197
  204
  213
  222
  232
  244
  255
  268
  360
  374
  390
  406
  424
  443
  462
  483
  505
  528
  553
  579
  606
  634
  665
  696
  730
  765
  802
  841
EBITDA, $m
  313
  320
  327
  336
  345
  356
  367
  380
  393
  408
  423
  440
  458
  477
  497
  519
  541
  565
  591
  618
  646
  676
  707
  741
  776
  813
  852
  893
  936
  981
  1,029
Interest expense (income), $m
  57
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  112
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  196
  207
  219
  232
  245
Earnings before tax, $m
  170
  131
  135
  140
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  189
  276
  286
  296
  307
  319
  331
  344
  358
  373
  388
  405
  422
  440
  459
  479
  500
  522
  546
  571
  596
Tax expense, $m
  35
  35
  37
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  49
  51
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
Net income, $m
  133
  96
  99
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  138
  201
  208
  216
  224
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
  283
  295
  308
  321
  335
  350
  365
  381
  398
  416
  435

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  191
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,863
  2,726
  2,788
  2,860
  2,940
  3,029
  3,127
  3,234
  3,349
  3,473
  3,607
  3,749
  3,901
  4,063
  4,236
  4,418
  4,612
  4,817
  5,034
  5,263
  5,504
  5,760
  6,029
  6,312
  6,611
  6,926
  7,257
  7,606
  7,973
  8,359
  8,765
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,672
  2,726
  2,788
  2,860
  2,940
  3,029
  3,127
  3,234
  3,349
  3,473
  3,607
  3,749
  3,901
  4,063
  4,236
  4,418
  4,612
  4,817
  5,034
  5,263
  5,504
  5,760
  6,029
  6,312
  6,611
  6,926
  7,257
  7,606
  7,973
  8,359
  8,765
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
  0.613
Average production assets, $m
  1,286
  1,312
  1,342
  1,376
  1,415
  1,458
  1,505
  1,556
  1,612
  1,671
  1,736
  1,804
  1,877
  1,955
  2,038
  2,126
  2,219
  2,318
  2,422
  2,532
  2,649
  2,772
  2,901
  3,037
  3,181
  3,333
  3,492
  3,660
  3,837
  4,022
  4,218
Working capital, $m
  455
  282
  289
  296
  305
  314
  324
  335
  347
  360
  374
  388
  404
  421
  439
  458
  478
  499
  521
  545
  570
  597
  625
  654
  685
  717
  752
  788
  826
  866
  908
Total debt, $m
  1,083
  1,108
  1,151
  1,200
  1,256
  1,317
  1,385
  1,458
  1,538
  1,624
  1,716
  1,814
  1,919
  2,031
  2,150
  2,276
  2,409
  2,551
  2,700
  2,858
  3,025
  3,201
  3,387
  3,582
  3,789
  4,006
  4,234
  4,475
  4,728
  4,995
  5,275
Total liabilities, $m
  1,857
  1,881
  1,924
  1,973
  2,029
  2,090
  2,158
  2,231
  2,311
  2,397
  2,489
  2,587
  2,692
  2,804
  2,923
  3,049
  3,182
  3,324
  3,473
  3,631
  3,798
  3,974
  4,160
  4,355
  4,562
  4,779
  5,007
  5,248
  5,501
  5,768
  6,048
Total equity, $m
  1,007
  845
  864
  887
  912
  939
  969
  1,002
  1,038
  1,077
  1,118
  1,162
  1,209
  1,260
  1,313
  1,370
  1,430
  1,493
  1,560
  1,631
  1,706
  1,785
  1,869
  1,957
  2,049
  2,147
  2,250
  2,358
  2,472
  2,591
  2,717
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,864
  2,726
  2,788
  2,860
  2,941
  3,029
  3,127
  3,233
  3,349
  3,474
  3,607
  3,749
  3,901
  4,064
  4,236
  4,419
  4,612
  4,817
  5,033
  5,262
  5,504
  5,759
  6,029
  6,312
  6,611
  6,926
  7,257
  7,606
  7,973
  8,359
  8,765
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.075
  1.310
  1.330
  1.350
  1.380
  1.400
  1.430
  1.450
  1.480
  1.510
  1.530
  1.560
  1.590
  1.610
  1.640
  1.660
  1.690
  1.710
  1.730
  1.750
  1.770
  1.790
  1.810
  1.830
  1.850
  1.870
  1.880
  1.900
  1.910
  1.930
  1.940
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.308
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  133
  96
  99
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  138
  201
  208
  216
  224
  233
  242
  251
  261
  272
  283
  295
  308
  321
  335
  350
  365
  381
  398
  416
  435
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  92
  136
  138
  139
  141
  143
  145
  147
  150
  152
  155
  80
  83
  87
  91
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  179
  187
Funds from operations, $m
  198
  232
  236
  241
  247
  253
  260
  267
  275
  284
  293
  281
  292
  303
  315
  327
  340
  354
  369
  385
  401
  418
  437
  456
  476
  498
  520
  544
  569
  595
  623
Change in working capital, $m
  -27
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
Cash from operations, $m
  225
  195
  230
  234
  239
  244
  250
  256
  263
  271
  279
  267
  276
  286
  297
  308
  320
  333
  347
  361
  376
  392
  409
  427
  445
  465
  486
  508
  531
  555
  581
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -179
New CAPEX, $m
  -62
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -195
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -62
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -132
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -187
  -198
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -252
  -265
  -279
  -292
  -307
  -323
  -340
  -357
  -374
Free cash flow, $m
  163
  113
  141
  140
  139
  138
  138
  138
  139
  139
  141
  121
  123
  125
  127
  130
  133
  136
  139
  143
  147
  152
  156
  161
  167
  172
  178
  185
  192
  199
  207
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -186
  38
  43
  49
  56
  62
  67
  73
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  141
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  206
  217
  229
  241
  253
  266
  280
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -188
  38
  43
  49
  56
  62
  67
  73
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  141
  150
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  206
  217
  229
  241
  253
  266
  280
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -34
  150
  185
  189
  194
  200
  205
  212
  218
  225
  233
  219
  228
  237
  246
  256
  266
  277
  289
  301
  314
  328
  342
  357
  373
  390
  407
  426
  445
  465
  487
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -96
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  178
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  312
  165
  167
  169
  172
  175
  179
  182
  187
  191
  175
  181
  186
  193
  199
  206
  214
  222
  230
  239
  248
  258
  269
  280
  292
  304
  317
  331
  346
  361
Discount rate, %
 
  6.80
  7.14
  7.50
  7.87
  8.27
  8.68
  9.11
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.21
  12.82
  13.46
  14.14
  14.84
  15.59
  16.37
  17.18
  18.04
  18.94
  19.89
  20.89
  21.93
  23.03
  24.18
  25.39
  26.66
  27.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  293
  144
  135
  125
  116
  106
  97
  88
  79
  70
  55
  48
  42
  36
  30
  25
  20
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Minerals Technologies Inc. develops, produces, and markets various specialty mineral, mineral-based, and synthetic mineral products, and supporting systems and services worldwide. The company’s Specialty Minerals segment produces and sells precipitated calcium carbonate and quicklime; and provides natural mineral products comprising limestone and talc. This segment’s products are used in paper, building materials, paint and coatings, glass, ceramic, polymer, food, automotive, and pharmaceutical industries. Its Refractories segment offers monolithic and shaped refractory materials; specialty products, services, and application and measurement equipment; and calcium metal and metallurgical wire products that are used in the applications of steel, non-ferrous metal, and glass industries. The company’s Performance Materials segment supplies bentonite and bentonite-related products, as well as chromite and leonardite. This segment offers metal casting products; household, personal care, and specialty products; and basic minerals and other products. Its Construction Technologies segment provides environmental products comprising bentonite and polymer lining technologies, as well as specialized technologies to mitigate vapor intrusion. This segment also provides various active and passive products for waterproofing of underground structures, commercial building envelopes, and tunnels, as well as drilling products. It serves construction project customers. The company’s Energy Services segment provides offshore water treatment/filtration and well testing services to the oil and gas industry. The company markets its products primarily through its direct sales force, as well as regional distributors. Minerals Technologies Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in New York City, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Minerals Technologies (MTX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.3
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -27.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 15
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 106.3%
Total Debt to Equity 107.5%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Total Capital 6.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Equity 13.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 28.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.5%
EBITDA Margin 19.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Operating Margin 13.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Net Profit Margin 8.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Effective Tax Rate 20.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 21%
Payout Ratio 5.3%

MTX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MTX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1638 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Minerals Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Minerals Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MTX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.8%, whose default value for MTX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Minerals Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Minerals Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MTX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MTX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for Minerals Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Minerals Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MTX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MTX are equal to 78.5%.

Life of production assets of 22.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Minerals Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MTX is equal to 16.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1007 million for Minerals Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.379 million for Minerals Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Minerals Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Minerals Technologies Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend   [May-16-17 08:56AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Minerals Technologies beats 1Q profit forecasts   [May-04-17 07:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ Minerals Technologies beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-02-17 06:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Synaptics, Incorporated (SYNA) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-13-16 10:15AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Minerals Technologies Inc (MTX)?   [Dec-02-16 01:22PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of MTX Financial statements of MTX Annual reports of MTX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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