Intrinsic value of MicroVision - MVIS

Previous Close

$1.32

  Intrinsic Value

$0.02

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

Previous close

$1.32

 
Intrinsic value

$0.02

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of MVIS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  66.67
  50.00
  45.50
  41.45
  37.81
  34.52
  31.57
  28.91
  26.52
  24.37
  22.43
  20.69
  19.12
  17.71
  16.44
  15.29
  14.27
  13.34
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.36
  7.12
Revenue, $m
  15
  23
  33
  46
  64
  86
  113
  146
  184
  229
  281
  339
  403
  475
  553
  637
  728
  825
  929
  1,038
  1,153
  1,273
  1,400
  1,532
  1,669
  1,813
  1,962
  2,117
  2,278
  2,446
  2,620
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  27
  39
  56
  77
  103
  136
  175
  221
  275
  337
  406
  484
  570
  663
  765
  874
  990
  1,114
  1,245
  1,383
  1,528
  1,680
  1,838
  2,003
  2,175
  2,354
  2,541
  2,734
  2,935
  3,144
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
Total operating expenses, $m
  31
  40
  53
  70
  91
  118
  151
  190
  237
  291
  354
  423
  501
  588
  681
  784
  893
  1,010
  1,134
  1,266
  1,404
  1,550
  1,702
  1,861
  2,027
  2,199
  2,379
  2,566
  2,760
  2,962
  3,171
Operating income, $m
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -53
  -62
  -73
  -85
  -98
  -113
  -129
  -146
  -165
  -185
  -206
  -228
  -252
  -277
  -302
  -329
  -357
  -387
  -417
  -449
  -482
  -516
  -551
EBITDA, $m
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -53
  -62
  -73
  -85
  -98
  -113
  -129
  -146
  -165
  -185
  -206
  -228
  -252
  -277
  -302
  -329
  -357
  -387
  -417
  -449
  -482
  -516
  -551
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
Earnings before tax, $m
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -54
  -64
  -75
  -87
  -101
  -117
  -133
  -152
  -171
  -192
  -214
  -238
  -262
  -288
  -315
  -344
  -373
  -404
  -436
  -469
  -503
  -539
  -577
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -54
  -64
  -75
  -87
  -101
  -117
  -133
  -152
  -171
  -192
  -214
  -238
  -262
  -288
  -315
  -344
  -373
  -404
  -436
  -469
  -503
  -539
  -577

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  20
  8
  11
  15
  21
  29
  38
  49
  61
  76
  94
  113
  134
  158
  184
  212
  243
  275
  310
  346
  384
  424
  467
  511
  556
  604
  654
  706
  759
  815
  873
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5
  8
  11
  15
  21
  29
  38
  49
  61
  76
  94
  113
  134
  158
  184
  212
  243
  275
  310
  346
  384
  424
  467
  511
  556
  604
  654
  706
  759
  815
  873
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.000
  2.875
  3.000
  3.067
  3.048
  2.966
  2.974
  2.980
  3.016
  3.013
  2.989
  3.000
  3.007
  3.006
  3.005
  3.005
  2.996
  3.000
  2.997
  3.000
  3.003
  3.002
  2.998
  2.998
  3.002
  3.002
  3.000
  2.999
  3.001
  3.001
  3.001
Average production assets, $m
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  10
  -7
  -11
  -15
  -21
  -29
  -38
  -48
  -61
  -76
  -93
  -113
  -134
  -158
  -184
  -212
  -242
  -275
  -309
  -346
  -384
  -424
  -466
  -510
  -556
  -604
  -653
  -705
  -759
  -815
  -873
Total debt, $m
  0
  -6
  -3
  1
  6
  13
  21
  31
  42
  56
  71
  89
  108
  129
  153
  178
  205
  235
  266
  298
  333
  369
  407
  447
  488
  531
  576
  622
  671
  721
  773
Total liabilities, $m
  13
  7
  10
  14
  19
  26
  34
  44
  55
  69
  84
  102
  121
  142
  166
  191
  218
  248
  279
  311
  346
  382
  420
  460
  501
  544
  589
  635
  684
  734
  786
Total equity, $m
  7
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  71
  76
  82
  87
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  20
  8
  11
  16
  21
  29
  38
  49
  61
  77
  93
  113
  134
  158
  184
  212
  242
  276
  310
  346
  384
  424
  467
  511
  557
  604
  654
  706
  760
  816
  873
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -8.330
  -2.910
  0.580
  2.890
  4.460
  5.550
  6.320
  6.880
  7.300
  7.610
  7.850
  8.030
  8.180
  8.290
  8.390
  8.460
  8.530
  8.580
  8.620
  8.660
  8.690
  8.720
  8.750
  8.770
  8.780
  8.800
  8.820
  8.830
  8.840
  8.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.600
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -54
  -64
  -75
  -87
  -101
  -117
  -133
  -152
  -171
  -192
  -214
  -238
  -262
  -288
  -315
  -344
  -373
  -404
  -436
  -469
  -503
  -539
  -577
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -54
  -64
  -75
  -87
  -101
  -117
  -133
  -152
  -171
  -192
  -214
  -238
  -262
  -288
  -315
  -344
  -373
  -404
  -436
  -469
  -503
  -539
  -577
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
Cash from operations, $m
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -41
  -49
  -58
  -68
  -80
  -93
  -107
  -123
  -141
  -160
  -180
  -201
  -224
  -248
  -273
  -300
  -327
  -356
  -386
  -417
  -450
  -483
  -519
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -16
  -18
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -41
  -49
  -58
  -68
  -80
  -93
  -107
  -123
  -141
  -160
  -180
  -201
  -224
  -248
  -273
  -300
  -327
  -356
  -386
  -417
  -450
  -483
  -519
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -6
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  23
  27
  20
  24
  28
  33
  39
  46
  55
  65
  76
  89
  103
  119
  136
  154
  174
  195
  218
  241
  266
  292
  319
  348
  378
  409
  441
  474
  509
  545
  582
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  23
  21
  23
  28
  33
  40
  47
  56
  67
  78
  91
  106
  122
  140
  159
  179
  201
  224
  249
  274
  300
  328
  357
  388
  419
  452
  486
  521
  557
  595
  634
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  3
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  30
  34
  39
  43
  48
  52
  56
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -7
  -27
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -39
  -46
  -55
  -65
  -76
  -89
  -103
  -119
  -136
  -154
  -174
  -195
  -218
  -241
  -266
  -292
  -319
  -348
  -378
  -409
  -441
  -474
  -509
  -545
  -582
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -9
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -35
  -42
  -51
  -60
  -71
  -84
  -98
  -114
  -131
  -149
  -169
  -190
  -212
  -235
  -260
  -286
  -313
  -341
  -371
  -401
  -433
  -466
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -9
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -28
  -27
  -26
  -24
  -22
  -20
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  13.5
  4.3
  1.5
  0.6
  0.3
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Microvision, Inc. is a developer of laser beam scanning (LBS) technology. The Company markets its technology under the brand name, PicoP. It has developed PicoP scanning technology that can be adopted by its customers to create high-resolution miniature projection, and three-dimensional sensing and image capture solutions that use laser diodes as the light source. The Company offers key components for inclusion in a scanning engine, including its Micro-Electrical Mechanical Systems (MEMS) and Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs). Its PicoP scanning technology incorporates its expertise in two-dimensional MEMS, lasers, optics and electronics to create a small form factor scanning engine with lower power needs. It licenses PicoP scanning technology to original design manufacturers (ODMs) or original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Its technology creates a platform that can support multiple applications and markets, including enterprise, medical, industrial and automotive.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MicroVision (MVIS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -5.6
Price to Sales 6
Price to Book 12.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -6
Price to Free Cash Flow -5.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 66.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -94.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -129.8%
Return On Total Capital -457.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -535.2%
Return On Equity -457.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -535.2%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.5%
EBITDA Margin -100%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -288.9%
Operating Margin -106.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -246.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -106.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -291.1%
Net Profit Margin -106.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -291.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

MVIS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MVIS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $15 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MicroVision. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of MicroVision. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MVIS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 50% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MVIS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MicroVision, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MicroVision.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MVIS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 120%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $13 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MVIS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for MicroVision.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MicroVision. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MVIS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MVIS are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of -3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MicroVision operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MVIS is equal to -33.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $7 million for MicroVision - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 80.521 million for MicroVision is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MicroVision at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Is There Now An Opportunity In MicroVision Inc (MVIS)?   [Nov-15-17 02:27PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ MicroVision reports 3Q loss   [Nov-02-17 09:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Penny Stocks to Watch for November 2017   [Oct-31-17 10:12AM  Investopedia]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MicroVision, Inc. : October 4, 2017   [Oct-04-17 10:51AM  Capital Cube]
▶ MicroVision Prices $10 Million Offering of Common Stock   [Aug-10-17 09:18AM  Business Wire]
▶ MicroVision reports 2Q loss   [Aug-03-17 02:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MicroVision, Inc. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:28PM  Capital Cube]
▶ MicroVision Terminating At-The-Market Facility   [Jun-13-17 04:16PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MicroVision, Inc. : June 6, 2017   [Jun-06-17 11:45AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MicroVision, Inc. : May 26, 2017   [May-26-17 01:18PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MicroVision, Inc. : May 15, 2017   [May-15-17 04:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MicroVision, Inc. : May 3, 2017   [May-03-17 04:07PM  Capital Cube]
▶ MicroVision reports 1Q loss   [Apr-27-17 09:26AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MicroVision, Inc. : April 19, 2017   [Apr-19-17 02:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MicroVision, Inc. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 05:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ MicroVision reports 4Q loss   [08:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Colonel Yalon Farhi Joins MicroVisions Board of Directors   [Sep-30-16 09:15AM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Lincoln Park to Acquire MicroVision Shares   [Sep-23-16 02:19PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Financial statements of MVIS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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