Intrinsic value of Mueller Water Products - MWA

Previous Close

$11.68

  Intrinsic Value

$3.83

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-67%

  Value-price divergence*

+10%

Previous close

$11.68

 
Intrinsic value

$3.83

 
Up/down potential

-67%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+10%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MWA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.23
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,139
  1,162
  1,189
  1,219
  1,253
  1,291
  1,333
  1,378
  1,428
  1,481
  1,537
  1,598
  1,663
  1,732
  1,805
  1,883
  1,966
  2,053
  2,146
  2,243
  2,346
  2,455
  2,570
  2,691
  2,818
  2,952
  3,093
  3,242
  3,399
  3,563
  3,736
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,083
  1,108
  1,136
  1,168
  1,203
  1,242
  1,285
  1,330
  1,380
  1,433
  1,489
  1,549
  1,613
  1,682
  1,754
  1,831
  1,913
  1,999
  2,090
  2,186
  2,287
  2,394
  2,506
  2,625
  2,750
  2,882
  3,020
  3,166
  3,319
  3,481
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,018
  1,083
  1,108
  1,136
  1,168
  1,203
  1,242
  1,285
  1,330
  1,380
  1,433
  1,489
  1,549
  1,613
  1,682
  1,754
  1,831
  1,913
  1,999
  2,090
  2,186
  2,287
  2,394
  2,506
  2,625
  2,750
  2,882
  3,020
  3,166
  3,319
  3,481
Operating income, $m
  121
  79
  81
  83
  85
  88
  91
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
EBITDA, $m
  173
  132
  135
  139
  142
  147
  151
  157
  162
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  279
  292
  306
  320
  335
  352
  368
  386
  405
  425
Interest expense (income), $m
  21
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
Earnings before tax, $m
  97
  58
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  150
  157
Tax expense, $m
  33
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
Net income, $m
  64
  43
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  195
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,281
  1,108
  1,133
  1,162
  1,195
  1,231
  1,271
  1,314
  1,361
  1,411
  1,466
  1,523
  1,585
  1,651
  1,721
  1,795
  1,874
  1,957
  2,045
  2,138
  2,237
  2,340
  2,450
  2,565
  2,686
  2,814
  2,949
  3,091
  3,240
  3,397
  3,562
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,086
  1,108
  1,133
  1,162
  1,195
  1,231
  1,271
  1,314
  1,361
  1,411
  1,466
  1,523
  1,585
  1,651
  1,721
  1,795
  1,874
  1,957
  2,045
  2,138
  2,237
  2,340
  2,450
  2,565
  2,686
  2,814
  2,949
  3,091
  3,240
  3,397
  3,562
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.050
  1.048
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
  1.049
Average production assets, $m
  644
  656
  672
  689
  708
  730
  753
  779
  807
  836
  869
  903
  940
  979
  1,020
  1,064
  1,111
  1,160
  1,212
  1,267
  1,326
  1,387
  1,452
  1,520
  1,592
  1,668
  1,748
  1,832
  1,920
  2,013
  2,111
Working capital, $m
  426
  242
  247
  254
  261
  269
  277
  287
  297
  308
  320
  332
  346
  360
  376
  392
  409
  427
  446
  467
  488
  511
  535
  560
  586
  614
  643
  674
  707
  741
  777
Total debt, $m
  485
  496
  516
  539
  565
  593
  625
  659
  696
  736
  778
  824
  873
  925
  980
  1,039
  1,101
  1,166
  1,236
  1,309
  1,387
  1,469
  1,555
  1,646
  1,742
  1,842
  1,949
  2,061
  2,178
  2,302
  2,432
Total liabilities, $m
  862
  874
  894
  917
  943
  971
  1,003
  1,037
  1,074
  1,114
  1,156
  1,202
  1,251
  1,303
  1,358
  1,417
  1,479
  1,544
  1,614
  1,687
  1,765
  1,847
  1,933
  2,024
  2,120
  2,220
  2,327
  2,439
  2,556
  2,680
  2,810
Total equity, $m
  418
  234
  239
  245
  252
  260
  268
  277
  287
  298
  309
  321
  334
  348
  363
  379
  395
  413
  432
  451
  472
  494
  517
  541
  567
  594
  622
  652
  684
  717
  752
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,280
  1,108
  1,133
  1,162
  1,195
  1,231
  1,271
  1,314
  1,361
  1,412
  1,465
  1,523
  1,585
  1,651
  1,721
  1,796
  1,874
  1,957
  2,046
  2,138
  2,237
  2,341
  2,450
  2,565
  2,687
  2,814
  2,949
  3,091
  3,240
  3,397
  3,562
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.160
  2.120
  2.160
  2.200
  2.240
  2.280
  2.330
  2.380
  2.420
  2.470
  2.520
  2.560
  2.610
  2.650
  2.700
  2.740
  2.780
  2.820
  2.860
  2.900
  2.940
  2.970
  3.010
  3.040
  3.070
  3.100
  3.130
  3.160
  3.190
  3.210
  3.240
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.205
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  64
  43
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
Funds from operations, $m
  151
  96
  98
  100
  102
  105
  108
  112
  115
  119
  123
  128
  132
  137
  143
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217
  226
  237
  247
  259
  271
  283
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
Cash from operations, $m
  145
  91
  92
  94
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  108
  112
  115
  119
  123
  128
  132
  137
  143
  148
  154
  161
  167
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
  226
  236
  247
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
New CAPEX, $m
  -39
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -39
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -184
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
Free cash flow, $m
  106
  27
  25
  23
  21
  19
  18
  16
  15
  14
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  -1
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -8
  17
  20
  23
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  130
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  98
  43
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  54
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -52
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  189
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  228
  39
  39
  40
  40
  41
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  77
  81
  84
Discount rate, %
 
  5.10
  5.36
  5.62
  5.90
  6.20
  6.51
  6.83
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.27
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.66
  16.45
  17.27
  18.13
  19.04
  19.99
  20.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  217
  35
  33
  32
  30
  28
  26
  24
  22
  20
  19
  17
  15
  13
  12
  10
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Mueller Water Products, Inc. manufactures and markets products and services for the use in transmission, distribution, and measurement of water in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Mueller Co., Anvil, and Mueller Technologies. The Mueller Co. segment offers valves for water and gas systems, including iron gate, butterfly, tapping, check, knife, plug, and ball valves; dry-barrel and wet-barrel fire hydrants; pipe repair products, such as clamps and couplings used to repair leaks under the Mueller and Jones brand names; small valves, meter bars, and line stopper fittings for use in gas systems; and machines and tools for tapping, drilling, extracting, installing, and stopping-off. This segment sells its products primarily through waterworks distributors to various end user customers, including municipalities, water and wastewater utilities, gas utilities, and fire protection and construction contractors. The Anvil segment offers a range of products, including various fittings, couplings, hangers, valves, and related piping component system products for use in non-residential construction for HVAC, fire protection, industrial, power, and oil and gas end markets. This segment sells its products principally through distributors to various end users, including commercial contractors. The Mueller Technologies segment provides residential and commercial water metering products and systems; and leak detection and pipe condition assessment products and services primarily to municipalities and waterworks distributors, as well as to end users. Mueller Water Products, Inc. is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Mueller Water Products (MWA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.5
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 4.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 2.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 33
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 114.6%
Total Debt to Equity 116%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Total Capital 7.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Return On Equity 16.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.4%
EBITDA Margin 14.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.2%
Operating Margin 10.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Net Profit Margin 5.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Effective Tax Rate 34%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.5%
Payout Ratio 25%

MWA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MWA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1139 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Mueller Water Products. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Mueller Water Products. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MWA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.1%, whose default value for MWA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Mueller Water Products, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Mueller Water Products.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MWA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MWA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.3% for Mueller Water Products.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Mueller Water Products. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MWA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MWA are equal to 56.5%.

Life of production assets of 12.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Mueller Water Products operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MWA is equal to 20.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $418 million for Mueller Water Products - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 156.151 million for Mueller Water Products is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Mueller Water Products at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Mueller Water Products meets 3Q profit forecasts   [Aug-03-17 05:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mueller Water Products Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Aug-01-17 10:40AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Mueller Water Products meets 2Q profit forecasts   [Apr-27-17 07:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mueller Water Products misses 1Q profit forecasts   [Feb-02-17 06:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Mueller Water Products to Acquire Singer Valve   [Jan-30-17 08:33AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ [$$] One Equity Backs Pipe-Products Producer   [Jan-09-17 03:56PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Mueller Water Products names new CEO, sells Anvil   [10:40AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Is ICU Medical, Incorporated (ICUI) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-10-16 04:06PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Mueller Water Products Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Oct-31-16 05:37PM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of MWA Financial statements of MWA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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