Intrinsic value of Maxim Integrated Products - MXIM

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$45.75

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MXIM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 12.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.85
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
  7.04
  6.84
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.21
  6.08
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
Revenue, $m
  2,195
  2,366
  2,544
  2,729
  2,921
  3,121
  3,329
  3,545
  3,769
  4,003
  4,247
  4,501
  4,765
  5,041
  5,329
  5,630
  5,943
  6,271
  6,614
  6,973
  7,348
  7,740
  8,151
  8,581
  9,031
  9,503
  9,997
  10,515
  11,058
  11,627
  12,224
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,121
  2,277
  2,439
  2,607
  2,782
  2,964
  3,153
  3,350
  3,554
  3,768
  3,941
  4,172
  4,414
  4,666
  4,929
  5,204
  5,492
  5,792
  6,106
  6,434
  6,778
  7,137
  7,514
  7,908
  8,321
  8,754
  9,208
  9,683
  10,181
  10,704
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,931
  2,121
  2,277
  2,439
  2,607
  2,782
  2,964
  3,153
  3,350
  3,554
  3,768
  3,941
  4,172
  4,414
  4,666
  4,929
  5,204
  5,492
  5,792
  6,106
  6,434
  6,778
  7,137
  7,514
  7,908
  8,321
  8,754
  9,208
  9,683
  10,181
  10,704
Operating income, $m
  263
  245
  267
  290
  314
  339
  365
  392
  420
  449
  479
  560
  593
  627
  663
  700
  739
  780
  823
  867
  914
  963
  1,014
  1,067
  1,123
  1,182
  1,243
  1,308
  1,375
  1,446
  1,520
EBITDA, $m
  508
  476
  512
  549
  588
  628
  670
  713
  758
  805
  854
  905
  958
  1,014
  1,072
  1,132
  1,195
  1,261
  1,330
  1,403
  1,478
  1,557
  1,639
  1,726
  1,817
  1,911
  2,011
  2,115
  2,224
  2,339
  2,459
Interest expense (income), $m
  29
  35
  37
  42
  47
  53
  59
  65
  71
  77
  84
  91
  98
  106
  114
  122
  131
  140
  149
  159
  170
  180
  192
  203
  216
  229
  242
  257
  271
  287
  303
Earnings before tax, $m
  285
  211
  230
  248
  267
  286
  306
  327
  349
  371
  395
  469
  494
  521
  549
  578
  608
  640
  673
  708
  744
  782
  822
  864
  907
  953
  1,001
  1,051
  1,104
  1,159
  1,217
Tax expense, $m
  58
  57
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  88
  94
  100
  107
  127
  133
  141
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  191
  201
  211
  222
  233
  245
  257
  270
  284
  298
  313
  329
Net income, $m
  227
  154
  168
  181
  195
  209
  223
  239
  255
  271
  288
  342
  361
  380
  401
  422
  444
  467
  491
  517
  543
  571
  600
  631
  662
  696
  731
  767
  806
  846
  888

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2,231
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,235
  2,161
  2,323
  2,492
  2,668
  2,850
  3,040
  3,237
  3,442
  3,656
  3,878
  4,110
  4,352
  4,604
  4,867
  5,141
  5,428
  5,727
  6,040
  6,368
  6,710
  7,069
  7,444
  7,837
  8,248
  8,679
  9,130
  9,603
  10,099
  10,619
  11,164
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,004
  2,161
  2,323
  2,492
  2,668
  2,850
  3,040
  3,237
  3,442
  3,656
  3,878
  4,110
  4,352
  4,604
  4,867
  5,141
  5,428
  5,727
  6,040
  6,368
  6,710
  7,069
  7,444
  7,837
  8,248
  8,679
  9,130
  9,603
  10,099
  10,619
  11,164
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
  1.095
Average production assets, $m
  1,096
  1,181
  1,270
  1,362
  1,458
  1,557
  1,661
  1,769
  1,881
  1,998
  2,119
  2,246
  2,378
  2,515
  2,659
  2,809
  2,966
  3,129
  3,301
  3,479
  3,667
  3,862
  4,067
  4,282
  4,507
  4,742
  4,989
  5,247
  5,518
  5,802
  6,100
Working capital, $m
  2,198
  234
  252
  270
  289
  309
  330
  351
  373
  396
  420
  446
  472
  499
  528
  557
  588
  621
  655
  690
  727
  766
  807
  850
  894
  941
  990
  1,041
  1,095
  1,151
  1,210
Total debt, $m
  1,240
  1,058
  1,204
  1,356
  1,514
  1,678
  1,849
  2,026
  2,211
  2,403
  2,603
  2,812
  3,030
  3,256
  3,493
  3,740
  3,998
  4,268
  4,549
  4,844
  5,152
  5,475
  5,812
  6,166
  6,536
  6,924
  7,330
  7,756
  8,202
  8,670
  9,160
Total liabilities, $m
  2,127
  1,945
  2,091
  2,243
  2,401
  2,565
  2,736
  2,913
  3,098
  3,290
  3,490
  3,699
  3,917
  4,143
  4,380
  4,627
  4,885
  5,155
  5,436
  5,731
  6,039
  6,362
  6,699
  7,053
  7,423
  7,811
  8,217
  8,643
  9,089
  9,557
  10,047
Total equity, $m
  2,108
  216
  232
  249
  267
  285
  304
  324
  344
  366
  388
  411
  435
  460
  487
  514
  543
  573
  604
  637
  671
  707
  744
  784
  825
  868
  913
  960
  1,010
  1,062
  1,116
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,235
  2,161
  2,323
  2,492
  2,668
  2,850
  3,040
  3,237
  3,442
  3,656
  3,878
  4,110
  4,352
  4,603
  4,867
  5,141
  5,428
  5,728
  6,040
  6,368
  6,710
  7,069
  7,443
  7,837
  8,248
  8,679
  9,130
  9,603
  10,099
  10,619
  11,163
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.588
  4.900
  5.180
  5.440
  5.680
  5.890
  6.080
  6.260
  6.420
  6.570
  6.710
  6.840
  6.960
  7.070
  7.180
  7.270
  7.370
  7.450
  7.530
  7.610
  7.680
  7.750
  7.810
  7.870
  7.920
  7.980
  8.030
  8.080
  8.120
  8.160
  8.210
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.063
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  227
  154
  168
  181
  195
  209
  223
  239
  255
  271
  288
  342
  361
  380
  401
  422
  444
  467
  491
  517
  543
  571
  600
  631
  662
  696
  731
  767
  806
  846
  888
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  245
  231
  244
  259
  273
  289
  305
  321
  338
  356
  375
  346
  366
  387
  409
  432
  456
  481
  508
  535
  564
  594
  626
  659
  693
  730
  767
  807
  849
  893
  938
Funds from operations, $m
  821
  384
  413
  440
  468
  498
  528
  560
  593
  628
  663
  688
  727
  767
  810
  854
  900
  949
  999
  1,052
  1,107
  1,165
  1,226
  1,289
  1,356
  1,425
  1,498
  1,575
  1,655
  1,739
  1,827
Change in working capital, $m
  99
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
Cash from operations, $m
  722
  111
  395
  421
  449
  478
  508
  539
  571
  604
  639
  662
  700
  740
  781
  824
  869
  916
  965
  1,017
  1,070
  1,126
  1,185
  1,247
  1,311
  1,379
  1,449
  1,523
  1,601
  1,682
  1,768
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -169
  -182
  -195
  -210
  -224
  -240
  -256
  -272
  -289
  -307
  -326
  -346
  -366
  -387
  -409
  -432
  -456
  -481
  -508
  -535
  -564
  -594
  -626
  -659
  -693
  -730
  -767
  -807
  -849
  -893
New CAPEX, $m
  -69
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -235
  -247
  -258
  -271
  -284
  -298
Cash from investing activities, $m
  63
  -254
  -271
  -287
  -306
  -324
  -344
  -364
  -384
  -406
  -429
  -453
  -478
  -504
  -531
  -559
  -589
  -620
  -652
  -687
  -722
  -760
  -799
  -841
  -884
  -928
  -977
  -1,025
  -1,078
  -1,133
  -1,191
Free cash flow, $m
  785
  -142
  124
  134
  144
  154
  164
  175
  187
  198
  210
  210
  223
  236
  251
  265
  280
  296
  313
  330
  348
  367
  386
  406
  428
  450
  473
  497
  523
  549
  577
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  250
  68
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  192
  200
  209
  217
  227
  237
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
  308
  323
  338
  353
  370
  388
  406
  426
  446
  468
  490
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -148
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  112
  68
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  192
  200
  209
  217
  227
  237
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
  308
  323
  338
  353
  370
  388
  406
  426
  446
  468
  490
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  896
  -74
  271
  286
  302
  318
  335
  353
  371
  391
  411
  418
  440
  463
  487
  512
  538
  566
  595
  625
  656
  689
  724
  760
  798
  838
  879
  923
  969
  1,017
  1,068
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  182
  -89
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,981
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,818
  254
  269
  284
  300
  316
  333
  351
  369
  388
  395
  416
  438
  461
  485
  510
  536
  563
  592
  622
  653
  686
  721
  757
  795
  834
  876
  919
  965
  1,013
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,743
  233
  234
  234
  232
  229
  225
  219
  212
  204
  188
  178
  167
  155
  142
  130
  117
  104
  91
  79
  68
  57
  47
  39
  31
  24
  19
  14
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Maxim Integrated Products, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and markets various linear and mixed-signal integrated circuits in the United States, China, other countries in Asia, Europe, and internationally. It also provides a range of high-frequency process technologies and capabilities for use in custom designs. The company serves automotive, communications and data center, computing, consumer, and industrial markets. It markets its products through a direct-sales and applications organization, as well as through its own and other unaffiliated distribution channels. Maxim Integrated Products, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 57.2
Price to Sales 5.9
Price to Book 6.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -9.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -20.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 9
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 47%
Total Debt to Equity 58.8%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Return On Total Capital 6.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Equity 10.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.1%
EBITDA Margin 25.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26%
Operating Margin 12%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 13%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Net Profit Margin 10.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Effective Tax Rate 20.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Payout Ratio 150.7%

MXIM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MXIM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2195 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Maxim Integrated Products. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Maxim Integrated Products. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MXIM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MXIM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Maxim Integrated Products, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Maxim Integrated Products.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MXIM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MXIM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Maxim Integrated Products.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Maxim Integrated Products. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MXIM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MXIM are equal to 49.9%.

Life of production assets of 6.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Maxim Integrated Products operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MXIM is equal to 9.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2108 million for Maxim Integrated Products - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 278.45 million for Maxim Integrated Products is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Maxim Integrated Products at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $12.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Maxim Integrated To Issue $500 Million Of Senior Notes   [Jun-08-17 04:05PM  PR Newswire]
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▶ Trouble for Maxim Integrated Means Trouble for Semis   [Apr-20-17 09:39PM  Investopedia]
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▶ Is Maxim Integrated Products in the Chips?   [Feb-03-17 01:18PM  at TheStreet]
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Stock chart of MXIM Financial statements of MXIM Annual reports of MXIM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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