Intrinsic value of Maxwell Technologies - MXWL

Previous Close

$5.83

  Intrinsic Value

$5.99

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+3%

Previous close

$5.83

 
Intrinsic value

$5.99

 
Up/down potential

+3%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of MXWL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -27.54
  38.50
  35.15
  32.14
  29.42
  26.98
  24.78
  22.80
  21.02
  19.42
  17.98
  16.68
  15.51
  14.46
  13.52
  12.66
  11.90
  11.21
  10.59
  10.03
  9.53
  9.07
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
Revenue, $m
  121
  168
  226
  299
  387
  492
  614
  754
  912
  1,089
  1,285
  1,499
  1,732
  1,982
  2,250
  2,535
  2,837
  3,155
  3,489
  3,839
  4,205
  4,586
  4,983
  5,397
  5,827
  6,274
  6,739
  7,222
  7,723
  8,245
  8,787
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  134
  180
  237
  306
  387
  483
  592
  716
  855
  1,008
  1,174
  1,356
  1,552
  1,762
  1,985
  2,221
  2,470
  2,732
  3,006
  3,292
  3,591
  3,902
  4,226
  4,563
  4,913
  5,276
  5,654
  6,047
  6,456
  6,880
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  97
  99
  102
  104
  107
Total operating expenses, $m
  147
  186
  234
  292
  362
  445
  542
  653
  778
  919
  1,073
  1,241
  1,425
  1,622
  1,834
  2,059
  2,297
  2,548
  2,812
  3,088
  3,376
  3,677
  3,990
  4,316
  4,655
  5,008
  5,373
  5,753
  6,149
  6,560
  6,987
Operating income, $m
  -26
  -18
  -7
  8
  25
  47
  72
  101
  133
  170
  211
  258
  307
  360
  416
  476
  540
  607
  678
  752
  829
  910
  994
  1,081
  1,172
  1,267
  1,365
  1,468
  1,574
  1,685
  1,800
EBITDA, $m
  -16
  -8
  6
  24
  46
  72
  102
  138
  178
  223
  273
  327
  387
  451
  520
  593
  671
  752
  838
  928
  1,022
  1,121
  1,223
  1,330
  1,441
  1,556
  1,676
  1,800
  1,930
  2,064
  2,204
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  56
  61
  66
  71
  77
  82
  88
  94
Earnings before tax, $m
  -20
  -18
  -7
  7
  23
  44
  67
  95
  126
  161
  200
  245
  291
  341
  395
  452
  512
  576
  642
  713
  786
  862
  942
  1,025
  1,111
  1,201
  1,294
  1,391
  1,492
  1,597
  1,706
Tax expense, $m
  4
  0
  0
  2
  6
  12
  18
  26
  34
  44
  54
  66
  79
  92
  107
  122
  138
  155
  173
  192
  212
  233
  254
  277
  300
  324
  349
  376
  403
  431
  461
Net income, $m
  -24
  -18
  -7
  5
  17
  32
  49
  69
  92
  118
  146
  179
  213
  249
  288
  330
  374
  420
  469
  520
  574
  629
  688
  748
  811
  877
  945
  1,016
  1,089
  1,166
  1,245

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  141
  161
  217
  287
  371
  472
  588
  723
  874
  1,044
  1,232
  1,438
  1,661
  1,901
  2,158
  2,431
  2,720
  3,025
  3,345
  3,681
  4,031
  4,397
  4,778
  5,175
  5,587
  6,016
  6,461
  6,924
  7,405
  7,905
  8,425
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  116
  161
  217
  287
  371
  472
  588
  723
  874
  1,044
  1,232
  1,438
  1,661
  1,901
  2,158
  2,431
  2,720
  3,025
  3,345
  3,681
  4,031
  4,397
  4,778
  5,175
  5,587
  6,016
  6,461
  6,924
  7,405
  7,905
  8,425
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.043
  1.043
  1.041
  1.042
  1.043
  1.042
  1.044
  1.043
  1.043
  1.043
  1.043
  1.042
  1.043
  1.043
  1.043
  1.043
  1.043
  1.043
  1.043
  1.043
  1.043
  1.043
  1.043
  1.043
  1.043
  1.043
  1.043
  1.043
  1.043
  1.043
  1.043
Average production assets, $m
  30
  41
  55
  73
  95
  120
  150
  184
  223
  266
  314
  366
  423
  484
  549
  619
  692
  770
  851
  937
  1,026
  1,119
  1,216
  1,317
  1,422
  1,531
  1,644
  1,762
  1,884
  2,012
  2,144
Working capital, $m
  53
  39
  52
  69
  89
  114
  142
  174
  211
  252
  297
  346
  400
  458
  520
  586
  655
  729
  806
  887
  971
  1,059
  1,151
  1,247
  1,346
  1,449
  1,557
  1,668
  1,784
  1,905
  2,030
Total debt, $m
  0
  15
  35
  59
  88
  123
  163
  209
  262
  320
  385
  456
  533
  616
  704
  799
  898
  1,004
  1,114
  1,230
  1,351
  1,477
  1,608
  1,745
  1,887
  2,035
  2,189
  2,349
  2,515
  2,687
  2,867
Total liabilities, $m
  40
  55
  75
  99
  128
  163
  203
  249
  302
  360
  425
  496
  573
  656
  744
  839
  938
  1,044
  1,154
  1,270
  1,391
  1,517
  1,648
  1,785
  1,927
  2,075
  2,229
  2,389
  2,555
  2,727
  2,907
Total equity, $m
  101
  105
  142
  188
  243
  309
  385
  473
  573
  684
  807
  942
  1,088
  1,245
  1,413
  1,592
  1,782
  1,981
  2,191
  2,411
  2,640
  2,880
  3,130
  3,389
  3,659
  3,940
  4,232
  4,535
  4,850
  5,178
  5,518
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  141
  160
  217
  287
  371
  472
  588
  722
  875
  1,044
  1,232
  1,438
  1,661
  1,901
  2,157
  2,431
  2,720
  3,025
  3,345
  3,681
  4,031
  4,397
  4,778
  5,174
  5,586
  6,015
  6,461
  6,924
  7,405
  7,905
  8,425
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.150
  0.250
  0.310
  0.360
  0.400
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655
  0.655

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -24
  -18
  -7
  5
  17
  32
  49
  69
  92
  118
  146
  179
  213
  249
  288
  330
  374
  420
  469
  520
  574
  629
  688
  748
  811
  877
  945
  1,016
  1,089
  1,166
  1,245
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  10
  10
  13
  16
  20
  25
  31
  37
  44
  52
  61
  69
  80
  91
  104
  117
  131
  145
  161
  177
  194
  211
  229
  248
  268
  289
  310
  332
  356
  380
  405
Funds from operations, $m
  -16
  -8
  5
  21
  37
  57
  80
  106
  136
  170
  208
  248
  292
  340
  392
  446
  504
  565
  630
  697
  767
  841
  917
  997
  1,079
  1,166
  1,255
  1,348
  1,445
  1,545
  1,650
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  37
  41
  45
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
  120
  125
Cash from operations, $m
  -14
  -19
  -8
  4
  17
  33
  52
  74
  100
  129
  162
  198
  239
  283
  330
  381
  435
  492
  552
  616
  683
  752
  825
  901
  980
  1,062
  1,148
  1,237
  1,329
  1,425
  1,525
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -14
  -18
  -23
  -28
  -35
  -42
  -50
  -59
  -69
  -80
  -91
  -104
  -117
  -131
  -145
  -161
  -177
  -194
  -211
  -229
  -248
  -268
  -289
  -310
  -332
  -356
  -380
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -11
  -14
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -52
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -132
Cash from investing activities, $m
  15
  -17
  -22
  -28
  -35
  -43
  -53
  -62
  -74
  -85
  -98
  -111
  -126
  -141
  -156
  -174
  -191
  -209
  -226
  -246
  -266
  -287
  -308
  -330
  -353
  -377
  -402
  -428
  -454
  -483
  -512
Free cash flow, $m
  1
  -36
  -30
  -24
  -18
  -11
  -1
  12
  26
  44
  64
  87
  113
  142
  173
  207
  244
  284
  326
  370
  417
  466
  517
  571
  627
  685
  745
  808
  874
  942
  1,013
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  15
  19
  24
  29
  35
  40
  46
  52
  59
  65
  71
  77
  83
  89
  94
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  179
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  47
  44
  41
  38
  34
  27
  19
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  62
  63
  65
  67
  69
  67
  65
  59
  59
  65
  71
  77
  83
  89
  94
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  166
  173
  179
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  27
  34
  41
  49
  58
  67
  76
  86
  103
  129
  158
  190
  225
  262
  302
  344
  389
  436
  486
  538
  592
  649
  708
  769
  833
  899
  968
  1,040
  1,114
  1,192
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  18
  -47
  -44
  -46
  -55
  -66
  -77
  -88
  -99
  -111
  -123
  -135
  -146
  -157
  -168
  -179
  -189
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -240
  -250
  -260
  -270
  -281
  -292
  -303
  -315
  -328
  -341
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  25
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  5
  -11
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -9
  6
  23
  44
  67
  94
  123
  155
  189
  226
  266
  308
  352
  399
  448
  499
  552
  607
  665
  725
  787
  851
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  4
  -10
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -5
  3
  11
  19
  26
  31
  36
  39
  41
  42
  41
  39
  36
  33
  29
  25
  21
  18
  14
  11
  9
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  78.2
  65.8
  58.3
  53.5
  50.4
  48.5
  47.4
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1
  47.1

Maxwell Technologies, Inc. develops, manufactures and markets energy storage and power delivery products for transportation, industrial, information technology and other applications and microelectronic products for space and satellite applications. The Company offers three product lines: Ultracapacitors, High-Voltage Capacitors and Radiation-Hardened Microelectronic Products. The Company's ultracapacitor cells and multi-cell packs, and modules provide energy storage and power delivery solutions for applications in multiple industries. The Company offers ultracapacitor cells with capacitances ranging from 1 to 3,400 farads. It designs and manufactures CONDIS high-voltage capacitors. These products include grading and coupling capacitors and electric voltage transformers. The Company's radiation-hardened microelectronic products for satellites and spacecraft include single board computers and components, such as high-density memory and data conversion modules.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Maxwell Technologies (MXWL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -7.8
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -13.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -9.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -27.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -18.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -15.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.3%
Return On Total Capital -21.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.2%
Return On Equity -21.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.7%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
EBITDA Margin -8.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.5%
Operating Margin -21.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -16.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.5%
Net Profit Margin -19.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.1%
Effective Tax Rate -20%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -80.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

MXWL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MXWL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $121 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Maxwell Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Maxwell Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MXWL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 38.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MXWL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Maxwell Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Maxwell Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MXWL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $51 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MXWL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Maxwell Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Maxwell Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MXWL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MXWL are equal to 24.4%.

Life of production assets of 5.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Maxwell Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MXWL is equal to 23.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $101 million for Maxwell Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.814 million for Maxwell Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Maxwell Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Maxwell reports 3Q loss   [Nov-08-17 05:45PM  Associated Press]
▶ Maxwell reports 2Q loss   [Aug-07-17 07:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Maxwell Chairman of the Board Transition   [08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Maxwell reports 1Q loss   [May-09-17 06:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ Maxwell Completes Acquisition of Nesscap Energy Business   [Apr-28-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Maxwell reports 4Q loss   [04:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ LD Micro Index Reconstitution as of February 1, 2017   [Feb-01-17 09:45AM  Accesswire]
▶ Maxwell misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-02-16 06:55PM  AP]
Financial statements of MXWL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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