Intrinsic value of Myriad Genetics - MYGN

Previous Close

$28.96

  Intrinsic Value

$21.33

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-26%

  Value-price divergence*

-13%

Previous close

$28.96

 
Intrinsic value

$21.33

 
Up/down potential

-26%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-13%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MYGN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.29
  3.10
  3.29
  3.46
  3.61
  3.75
  3.88
  3.99
  4.09
  4.18
  4.26
  4.34
  4.40
  4.46
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
Revenue, $m
  754
  777
  803
  831
  861
  893
  928
  965
  1,004
  1,046
  1,091
  1,138
  1,188
  1,241
  1,297
  1,357
  1,419
  1,485
  1,555
  1,628
  1,705
  1,786
  1,872
  1,962
  2,057
  2,157
  2,262
  2,372
  2,488
  2,610
  2,738
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  632
  652
  674
  698
  723
  751
  780
  811
  844
  879
  897
  936
  978
  1,022
  1,069
  1,118
  1,170
  1,225
  1,283
  1,344
  1,408
  1,475
  1,546
  1,621
  1,700
  1,782
  1,869
  1,961
  2,057
  2,158
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  587
  632
  652
  674
  698
  723
  751
  780
  811
  844
  879
  897
  936
  978
  1,022
  1,069
  1,118
  1,170
  1,225
  1,283
  1,344
  1,408
  1,475
  1,546
  1,621
  1,700
  1,782
  1,869
  1,961
  2,057
  2,158
Operating income, $m
  167
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  202
  212
  241
  252
  263
  275
  287
  301
  315
  329
  345
  361
  378
  397
  416
  436
  457
  479
  503
  527
  553
  580
EBITDA, $m
  194
  181
  187
  194
  201
  208
  216
  225
  234
  244
  254
  265
  277
  289
  303
  316
  331
  346
  363
  380
  398
  417
  437
  458
  480
  503
  527
  553
  580
  609
  639
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
Earnings before tax, $m
  169
  145
  150
  156
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  239
  249
  260
  272
  284
  297
  311
  325
  340
  356
  373
  390
  409
  428
  449
  470
  493
  517
  542
  569
Tax expense, $m
  44
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  65
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  154
Net income, $m
  125
  106
  110
  114
  119
  123
  129
  134
  140
  146
  153
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217
  227
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  298
  313
  328
  343
  360
  377
  396
  415

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  159
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  881
  745
  769
  796
  824
  855
  889
  924
  962
  1,002
  1,045
  1,090
  1,138
  1,189
  1,243
  1,299
  1,359
  1,422
  1,489
  1,559
  1,633
  1,711
  1,793
  1,879
  1,970
  2,066
  2,166
  2,272
  2,383
  2,500
  2,623
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  722
  745
  769
  796
  824
  855
  889
  924
  962
  1,002
  1,045
  1,090
  1,138
  1,189
  1,243
  1,299
  1,359
  1,422
  1,489
  1,559
  1,633
  1,711
  1,793
  1,879
  1,970
  2,066
  2,166
  2,272
  2,383
  2,500
  2,623
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.044
  1.043
  1.044
  1.044
  1.045
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
  1.043
  1.045
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
  1.044
Average production assets, $m
  274
  282
  291
  302
  312
  324
  337
  350
  365
  380
  396
  413
  431
  451
  471
  492
  515
  539
  564
  591
  619
  648
  680
  712
  747
  783
  821
  861
  903
  947
  994
Working capital, $m
  243
  86
  89
  92
  96
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  208
  218
  228
  239
  251
  263
  276
  290
  304
Total debt, $m
  0
  4
  9
  13
  19
  24
  31
  37
  44
  51
  59
  68
  76
  86
  96
  106
  117
  129
  141
  154
  168
  182
  197
  213
  230
  247
  266
  285
  305
  327
  350
Total liabilities, $m
  132
  137
  142
  146
  152
  157
  164
  170
  177
  184
  192
  201
  209
  219
  229
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  301
  315
  330
  346
  363
  380
  399
  418
  438
  460
  483
Total equity, $m
  748
  608
  628
  649
  673
  698
  725
  754
  785
  818
  853
  890
  929
  970
  1,014
  1,060
  1,109
  1,161
  1,215
  1,272
  1,333
  1,396
  1,463
  1,534
  1,608
  1,686
  1,768
  1,854
  1,945
  2,040
  2,140
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  880
  745
  770
  795
  825
  855
  889
  924
  962
  1,002
  1,045
  1,091
  1,138
  1,189
  1,243
  1,299
  1,359
  1,423
  1,489
  1,559
  1,634
  1,711
  1,793
  1,880
  1,971
  2,066
  2,167
  2,272
  2,383
  2,500
  2,623
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816
  0.816

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  125
  106
  110
  114
  119
  123
  129
  134
  140
  146
  153
  175
  182
  190
  198
  207
  217
  227
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  298
  313
  328
  343
  360
  377
  396
  415
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  27
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
Funds from operations, $m
  101
  142
  146
  151
  156
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  196
  199
  207
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
  325
  340
  357
  374
  392
  411
  431
  452
  474
Change in working capital, $m
  -65
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
Cash from operations, $m
  166
  139
  144
  148
  153
  158
  164
  170
  177
  184
  191
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  263
  275
  288
  301
  315
  330
  346
  363
  380
  398
  418
  438
  459
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -91
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -103
Free cash flow, $m
  75
  115
  118
  121
  124
  128
  132
  137
  142
  147
  152
  153
  159
  166
  173
  181
  188
  197
  206
  215
  225
  235
  246
  258
  270
  283
  296
  310
  325
  341
  357
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -68
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -68
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  119
  122
  126
  130
  134
  139
  143
  149
  154
  160
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  199
  208
  218
  228
  238
  250
  261
  274
  286
  300
  314
  330
  345
  362
  380
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -86
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  159
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  259
  102
  104
  106
  109
  111
  115
  118
  122
  125
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  248
  94
  91
  88
  84
  81
  77
  74
  70
  66
  59
  55
  51
  47
  42
  38
  34
  30
  26
  23
  19
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Myriad Genetics, Inc., a personalized medicine company, focuses on the development and marketing of predictive, personalized, and prognostic medicine tests worldwide. It operates through two segments, Diagnostics and Other. The Diagnostics segment primarily provides testing and collaborative development of testing that is designed to assess an individual’s risk for developing disease; identify a patient’s likelihood of responding to drug therapy; guide a patient’s dosing to ensure optimal treatment; and assess a patient’s risk of disease progression and disease recurrence. The Other segment provides testing products and services to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical research industries; and research and development, and clinical services for patients. Its molecular diagnostic DNA sequencing tests include myRisk Hereditary cancer, a test for hereditary cancers; BRACAnalysis and BART, which are tests for hereditary breast and ovarian cancers; BRACAnalysis CDx test for use in identifying ovarian cancer patients with suspected deleterious germline; and Tumor BRACAnalysis CDx test that is used to predict DNA damaging agents, such as platinum based chemotherapy agents and poly ADP ribose inhibitors. The company also provides COLARIS test for colorectal and uterine cancers; COLARIS AP test for colorectal cancer; Vectra DA protein detection test for assessing the disease activity of rheumatoid arthritis; Prolaris, a RNA expression test for prostate cancer; EndoPredict RNA expression test for breast cancer; myPath Melanoma RNA expression test for diagnosing melanoma; myChoice homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) test to measure three modes of HRD; and myPlan lung cancer, an RNA expression test for lung cancer. Myriad Genetics, Inc. has collaboration with AstraZeneca for the development of an indication for BRACAnalysis CDx. The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Myriad Genetics (MYGN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16
Price to Sales 2.7
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -79.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -14.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 15.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Return On Total Capital 17.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Return On Equity 17.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.9%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 79.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 81.6%
EBITDA Margin 26%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.6%
Operating Margin 22.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 22.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.6%
Net Profit Margin 16.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Effective Tax Rate 26%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

MYGN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MYGN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $754 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Myriad Genetics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Myriad Genetics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MYGN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MYGN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Myriad Genetics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Myriad Genetics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MYGN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MYGN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Myriad Genetics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Myriad Genetics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MYGN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MYGN are equal to 36.3%.

Life of production assets of 17 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Myriad Genetics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MYGN is equal to 11.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $748 million for Myriad Genetics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 68.966 million for Myriad Genetics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Myriad Genetics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Myriad beats Street 4Q forecasts   [Aug-08-17 10:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ The Best Stock in Utah: Myriad Genetics   [Jul-21-17 12:50PM  Kiplinger]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Myriad Genetics, Inc. : May 9, 2017   [May-09-17 04:51PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Dont Give Up on Buybacks Just Yet   [12:37AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ How Investors Can Profit From Some Stock Buybacks   [May-07-17 10:43PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Myriad tops Street 3Q forecasts   [May-02-17 05:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] FDA clears consumer genetic tests in victory for 23andMe   [Apr-06-17 01:42PM  Financial Times]
▶ Better Buy: Myriad Genetics, Inc. vs. Opko Health, Inc.   [Mar-11-17 12:04PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Bullish and Bearish Reversals in the Market   [Feb-27-17 02:33PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Myriad Genetics to Join S&P SmallCap 600   [Feb-10-17 05:47PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Myriad Genetics: Fairly Valued?   [11:05AM  at Barrons.com]
Stock chart of MYGN Financial statements of MYGN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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