Intrinsic value of MYR Group - MYRG

Previous Close

$31.58

  Intrinsic Value

$38.11

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+21%

  Value-price divergence*

+1%

Previous close

$31.58

 
Intrinsic value

$38.11

 
Up/down potential

+21%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+1%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MYRG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.53
  18.10
  16.79
  15.61
  14.55
  13.59
  12.74
  11.96
  11.27
  10.64
  10.08
  9.57
  9.11
  8.70
  8.33
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.18
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
Revenue, $m
  1,142
  1,349
  1,575
  1,821
  2,086
  2,370
  2,671
  2,991
  3,328
  3,682
  4,053
  4,441
  4,845
  5,267
  5,705
  6,162
  6,636
  7,129
  7,641
  8,173
  8,727
  9,302
  9,900
  10,523
  11,172
  11,847
  12,551
  13,284
  14,050
  14,849
  15,683
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,291
  1,507
  1,742
  1,995
  2,265
  2,553
  2,858
  3,179
  3,517
  3,871
  4,236
  4,622
  5,024
  5,442
  5,878
  6,330
  6,800
  7,289
  7,796
  8,324
  8,873
  9,444
  10,038
  10,656
  11,301
  11,972
  12,672
  13,402
  14,164
  14,959
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,104
  1,291
  1,507
  1,742
  1,995
  2,265
  2,553
  2,858
  3,179
  3,517
  3,871
  4,236
  4,622
  5,024
  5,442
  5,878
  6,330
  6,800
  7,289
  7,796
  8,324
  8,873
  9,444
  10,038
  10,656
  11,301
  11,972
  12,672
  13,402
  14,164
  14,959
Operating income, $m
  39
  57
  68
  79
  91
  105
  118
  133
  149
  165
  182
  205
  223
  243
  263
  284
  306
  329
  352
  377
  402
  429
  457
  485
  515
  546
  579
  613
  648
  685
  723
EBITDA, $m
  78
  82
  96
  111
  127
  144
  163
  182
  203
  224
  247
  271
  295
  321
  348
  375
  404
  434
  465
  498
  532
  567
  603
  641
  681
  722
  765
  809
  856
  905
  955
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  2
  4
  6
  9
  11
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  30
  34
  37
  41
  46
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  91
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  133
Earnings before tax, $m
  38
  55
  64
  73
  83
  93
  105
  116
  129
  142
  156
  175
  190
  205
  222
  239
  256
  274
  293
  313
  333
  355
  377
  400
  424
  449
  475
  502
  530
  560
  591
Tax expense, $m
  17
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  47
  51
  55
  60
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  136
  143
  151
  159
Net income, $m
  21
  40
  47
  53
  60
  68
  76
  85
  94
  104
  114
  128
  139
  150
  162
  174
  187
  200
  214
  228
  243
  259
  275
  292
  309
  328
  347
  366
  387
  409
  431

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  574
  650
  759
  877
  1,005
  1,141
  1,287
  1,441
  1,603
  1,774
  1,952
  2,139
  2,334
  2,537
  2,748
  2,968
  3,197
  3,434
  3,681
  3,937
  4,204
  4,481
  4,769
  5,069
  5,381
  5,707
  6,046
  6,399
  6,768
  7,153
  7,554
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  550
  650
  759
  877
  1,005
  1,141
  1,287
  1,441
  1,603
  1,774
  1,952
  2,139
  2,334
  2,537
  2,748
  2,968
  3,197
  3,434
  3,681
  3,937
  4,204
  4,481
  4,769
  5,069
  5,381
  5,707
  6,046
  6,399
  6,768
  7,153
  7,554
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.076
  2.075
  2.075
  2.076
  2.076
  2.077
  2.075
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
Average production assets, $m
  169
  200
  233
  270
  309
  351
  395
  443
  493
  545
  600
  657
  717
  779
  844
  912
  982
  1,055
  1,131
  1,210
  1,292
  1,377
  1,465
  1,557
  1,653
  1,753
  1,857
  1,966
  2,079
  2,198
  2,321
Working capital, $m
  130
  127
  148
  171
  196
  223
  251
  281
  313
  346
  381
  417
  455
  495
  536
  579
  624
  670
  718
  768
  820
  874
  931
  989
  1,050
  1,114
  1,180
  1,249
  1,321
  1,396
  1,474
Total debt, $m
  64
  119
  181
  248
  320
  397
  479
  566
  657
  753
  854
  959
  1,069
  1,184
  1,303
  1,427
  1,556
  1,690
  1,829
  1,974
  2,124
  2,280
  2,443
  2,612
  2,788
  2,972
  3,163
  3,362
  3,570
  3,787
  4,014
Total liabilities, $m
  310
  366
  428
  495
  567
  644
  726
  813
  904
  1,000
  1,101
  1,206
  1,316
  1,431
  1,550
  1,674
  1,803
  1,937
  2,076
  2,221
  2,371
  2,527
  2,690
  2,859
  3,035
  3,219
  3,410
  3,609
  3,817
  4,034
  4,261
Total equity, $m
  263
  283
  331
  382
  438
  498
  561
  628
  699
  773
  851
  933
  1,018
  1,106
  1,198
  1,294
  1,394
  1,497
  1,605
  1,717
  1,833
  1,954
  2,079
  2,210
  2,346
  2,488
  2,636
  2,790
  2,951
  3,118
  3,294
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  573
  649
  759
  877
  1,005
  1,142
  1,287
  1,441
  1,603
  1,773
  1,952
  2,139
  2,334
  2,537
  2,748
  2,968
  3,197
  3,434
  3,681
  3,938
  4,204
  4,481
  4,769
  5,069
  5,381
  5,707
  6,046
  6,399
  6,768
  7,152
  7,555
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.243
  0.420
  0.550
  0.650
  0.730
  0.800
  0.850
  0.900
  0.940
  0.970
  1.000
  1.030
  1.050
  1.070
  1.090
  1.100
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.435
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  21
  40
  47
  53
  60
  68
  76
  85
  94
  104
  114
  128
  139
  150
  162
  174
  187
  200
  214
  228
  243
  259
  275
  292
  309
  328
  347
  366
  387
  409
  431
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  39
  25
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  65
  66
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  106
  113
  121
  129
  138
  147
  156
  165
  175
  186
  197
  208
  220
  232
Funds from operations, $m
  40
  65
  75
  85
  96
  108
  121
  134
  148
  163
  178
  193
  210
  228
  246
  265
  285
  306
  327
  349
  373
  397
  422
  448
  475
  503
  532
  563
  595
  628
  663
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
Cash from operations, $m
  54
  46
  53
  62
  71
  81
  92
  104
  116
  130
  144
  157
  172
  188
  205
  222
  241
  259
  279
  299
  320
  342
  365
  389
  414
  439
  466
  494
  523
  553
  585
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -44
  -49
  -54
  -60
  -66
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -91
  -98
  -106
  -113
  -121
  -129
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -175
  -186
  -197
  -208
  -220
New CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -34
  -48
  -54
  -59
  -66
  -73
  -80
  -87
  -94
  -101
  -109
  -117
  -126
  -134
  -143
  -152
  -161
  -171
  -182
  -192
  -203
  -214
  -227
  -239
  -252
  -265
  -279
  -295
  -310
  -326
  -343
Free cash flow, $m
  20
  -2
  0
  2
  5
  8
  12
  17
  22
  28
  34
  40
  47
  54
  62
  70
  79
  88
  98
  107
  118
  128
  139
  150
  162
  174
  187
  200
  213
  227
  242
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  58
  56
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  150
  156
  163
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  227
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -95
  3
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -36
  59
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  150
  156
  163
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  227
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -16
  57
  62
  69
  77
  85
  94
  104
  114
  124
  135
  145
  157
  169
  181
  194
  208
  222
  237
  252
  268
  284
  302
  320
  338
  358
  378
  399
  421
  444
  468
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  67
  -43
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -175
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  37
  15
  17
  21
  26
  31
  37
  43
  50
  57
  63
  72
  80
  89
  99
  108
  119
  129
  140
  152
  164
  176
  189
  202
  216
  230
  245
  260
  276
  293
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  36
  14
  15
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  29
  30
  30
  31
  30
  30
  29
  28
  26
  24
  22
  19
  17
  15
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.4
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2
  99.2

MYR Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides electrical construction services in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments, Transmission and Distribution, and Commercial and Industrial. The Transmission and Distribution segment offers a range of services on electric transmission and distribution networks, and substation facilities, including design, engineering, procurement, construction, upgrade, maintenance, and repair services with primary focus on construction, maintenance, and repair to customers in the electric utility and the renewable energy industries. Its services comprise construction and maintenance of high voltage transmission lines, substations, and lower voltage underground and overhead distribution systems; and storm restoration services in response to hurricane, ice, or other storm related damages. This segment serves as a prime contractor to customers, such as investor-owned utilities, cooperatives, private developers, government-funded utilities, independent power producers, independent transmission companies, industrial facility owners, and other contractors. The Commercial and Industrial segment provides services, such as design, installation, maintenance, and repair of commercial and industrial wiring; and installation of traffic networks, bridge, roadway, and tunnel lighting. This segment offers its services for airports, hospitals, data centers, hotels, stadiums, convention centers, manufacturing plants, processing facilities, waste-water treatment facilities, mining facilities, and transportation control and management systems. It serves general contractors, commercial and industrial facility owners, local governments, and developers. MYR Group Inc. was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MYR Group (MYRG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.6
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -46.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -10.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 24
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 24%
Total Debt to Equity 24.3%
Interest Coverage 39
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 6.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Return On Equity 7.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
EBITDA Margin 6.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Operating Margin 3.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Net Profit Margin 1.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Effective Tax Rate 44.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

MYRG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MYRG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1142 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MYR Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of MYR Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MYRG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MYRG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MYR Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MYR Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MYRG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MYRG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for MYR Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MYR Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MYRG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MYRG are equal to 14.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MYR Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MYRG is equal to 9.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $263 million for MYR Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15.388 million for MYR Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MYR Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to MYR Group, Inc. : June 19, 2017   [Jun-19-17 03:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why MYR Group Inc.'s Shares Plunged 20% Today   [May-04-17 02:49PM  Motley Fool]
▶ MYR misses Street 1Q forecasts   [May-03-17 05:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is MYR Group Inc (MYRG) A Good Investment?   [Dec-08-16 04:29PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Three Picks to Play Oil Pipelines   [Aug-04-16 11:14AM  at Barrons.com]
Stock chart of MYRG Financial statements of MYRG Annual reports of MYRG
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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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