Intrinsic value of MYR Group - MYRG

Previous Close

$37.82

  Intrinsic Value

$44.99

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+19%

Previous close

$37.82

 
Intrinsic value

$44.99

 
Up/down potential

+19%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of MYRG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.53
  22.80
  21.02
  19.42
  17.98
  16.68
  15.51
  14.46
  13.51
  12.66
  11.90
  11.21
  10.59
  10.03
  9.52
  9.07
  8.66
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
Revenue, $m
  1,142
  1,723
  2,085
  2,490
  2,937
  3,427
  3,959
  4,532
  5,144
  5,795
  6,485
  7,211
  7,975
  8,774
  9,610
  10,482
  11,390
  12,335
  13,318
  14,340
  15,402
  16,505
  17,652
  18,844
  20,083
  21,373
  22,715
  24,111
  25,567
  27,083
  28,664
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,663
  2,011
  2,401
  2,831
  3,303
  3,814
  4,365
  4,954
  5,580
  6,243
  6,936
  7,671
  8,440
  9,244
  10,082
  10,956
  11,865
  12,810
  13,793
  14,814
  15,876
  16,979
  18,125
  19,318
  20,558
  21,848
  23,192
  24,592
  26,050
  27,571
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,104
  1,663
  2,011
  2,401
  2,831
  3,303
  3,814
  4,365
  4,954
  5,580
  6,243
  6,936
  7,671
  8,440
  9,244
  10,082
  10,956
  11,865
  12,810
  13,793
  14,814
  15,876
  16,979
  18,125
  19,318
  20,558
  21,848
  23,192
  24,592
  26,050
  27,571
Operating income, $m
  39
  60
  74
  89
  106
  125
  145
  167
  190
  215
  241
  275
  304
  335
  366
  400
  434
  470
  508
  547
  587
  629
  673
  719
  766
  815
  866
  919
  975
  1,033
  1,093
EBITDA, $m
  78
  91
  111
  132
  156
  182
  210
  240
  273
  307
  344
  382
  423
  465
  510
  556
  604
  654
  706
  761
  817
  875
  936
  999
  1,065
  1,133
  1,205
  1,279
  1,356
  1,436
  1,520
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  4
  8
  13
  18
  23
  29
  36
  43
  50
  58
  66
  75
  85
  94
  105
  115
  126
  138
  150
  162
  175
  189
  203
  217
  232
  248
  264
  281
  299
  318
Earnings before tax, $m
  38
  55
  65
  76
  88
  102
  116
  131
  148
  165
  183
  209
  229
  250
  272
  295
  319
  344
  370
  397
  425
  454
  484
  516
  549
  583
  618
  655
  693
  734
  775
Tax expense, $m
  17
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  35
  40
  45
  50
  56
  62
  67
  73
  80
  86
  93
  100
  107
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
Net income, $m
  21
  40
  48
  56
  65
  74
  85
  96
  108
  121
  134
  152
  167
  182
  199
  215
  233
  251
  270
  290
  310
  332
  354
  377
  401
  425
  451
  478
  506
  535
  566

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  574
  741
  897
  1,071
  1,264
  1,475
  1,704
  1,950
  2,213
  2,494
  2,790
  3,103
  3,431
  3,776
  4,135
  4,510
  4,901
  5,308
  5,731
  6,170
  6,627
  7,102
  7,596
  8,108
  8,642
  9,197
  9,774
  10,375
  11,001
  11,654
  12,334
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  550
  741
  897
  1,071
  1,264
  1,475
  1,704
  1,950
  2,213
  2,494
  2,790
  3,103
  3,431
  3,776
  4,135
  4,510
  4,901
  5,308
  5,731
  6,170
  6,627
  7,102
  7,596
  8,108
  8,642
  9,197
  9,774
  10,375
  11,001
  11,654
  12,334
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.076
  2.325
  2.324
  2.325
  2.324
  2.323
  2.323
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
  2.324
Average production assets, $m
  169
  257
  311
  371
  438
  511
  590
  675
  766
  863
  966
  1,074
  1,188
  1,307
  1,432
  1,562
  1,697
  1,838
  1,984
  2,137
  2,295
  2,459
  2,630
  2,808
  2,992
  3,185
  3,384
  3,593
  3,809
  4,035
  4,271
Working capital, $m
  147
  -136
  -165
  -197
  -232
  -271
  -313
  -358
  -406
  -458
  -512
  -570
  -630
  -693
  -759
  -828
  -900
  -974
  -1,052
  -1,133
  -1,217
  -1,304
  -1,395
  -1,489
  -1,587
  -1,688
  -1,794
  -1,905
  -2,020
  -2,140
  -2,264
Total debt, $m
  64
  155
  237
  328
  429
  540
  660
  790
  928
  1,075
  1,231
  1,395
  1,567
  1,748
  1,937
  2,134
  2,339
  2,552
  2,775
  3,005
  3,245
  3,494
  3,754
  4,023
  4,303
  4,594
  4,897
  5,213
  5,541
  5,884
  6,241
Total liabilities, $m
  310
  389
  471
  562
  664
  774
  894
  1,024
  1,162
  1,309
  1,465
  1,629
  1,802
  1,982
  2,171
  2,368
  2,573
  2,787
  3,009
  3,239
  3,479
  3,729
  3,988
  4,257
  4,537
  4,828
  5,131
  5,447
  5,776
  6,118
  6,475
Total equity, $m
  263
  352
  426
  509
  600
  701
  809
  926
  1,051
  1,184
  1,325
  1,474
  1,630
  1,793
  1,964
  2,142
  2,328
  2,521
  2,722
  2,931
  3,148
  3,373
  3,608
  3,851
  4,105
  4,368
  4,643
  4,928
  5,226
  5,535
  5,859
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  573
  741
  897
  1,071
  1,264
  1,475
  1,703
  1,950
  2,213
  2,493
  2,790
  3,103
  3,432
  3,775
  4,135
  4,510
  4,901
  5,308
  5,731
  6,170
  6,627
  7,102
  7,596
  8,108
  8,642
  9,196
  9,774
  10,375
  11,002
  11,653
  12,334
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.243
  0.440
  0.560
  0.650
  0.720
  0.770
  0.820
  0.850
  0.880
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.435
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475
  0.475

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  21
  40
  48
  56
  65
  74
  85
  96
  108
  121
  134
  152
  167
  182
  199
  215
  233
  251
  270
  290
  310
  332
  354
  377
  401
  425
  451
  478
  506
  535
  566
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  39
  31
  37
  43
  50
  57
  65
  73
  82
  92
  102
  107
  119
  131
  143
  156
  170
  184
  198
  214
  229
  246
  263
  281
  299
  318
  338
  359
  381
  404
  427
Funds from operations, $m
  40
  72
  85
  99
  114
  131
  149
  169
  190
  213
  236
  260
  286
  313
  342
  372
  403
  435
  469
  503
  540
  577
  617
  657
  700
  744
  790
  837
  887
  939
  993
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  -25
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
Cash from operations, $m
  54
  97
  113
  131
  150
  170
  191
  214
  239
  264
  291
  317
  346
  376
  408
  440
  474
  510
  546
  584
  624
  665
  707
  752
  798
  846
  896
  948
  1,002
  1,059
  1,118
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -21
  -26
  -31
  -37
  -44
  -51
  -59
  -68
  -77
  -86
  -97
  -107
  -119
  -131
  -143
  -156
  -170
  -184
  -198
  -214
  -229
  -246
  -263
  -281
  -299
  -318
  -338
  -359
  -381
  -404
New CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -47
  -54
  -60
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -217
  -226
  -236
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -34
  -68
  -80
  -91
  -104
  -117
  -130
  -144
  -159
  -174
  -189
  -205
  -221
  -238
  -256
  -273
  -291
  -311
  -330
  -350
  -372
  -393
  -417
  -441
  -466
  -491
  -518
  -546
  -576
  -607
  -640
Free cash flow, $m
  20
  29
  34
  39
  46
  53
  61
  70
  80
  90
  102
  112
  125
  138
  153
  167
  183
  199
  216
  234
  252
  271
  290
  311
  332
  354
  377
  401
  426
  452
  479
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  58
  72
  82
  91
  101
  111
  120
  129
  138
  147
  156
  164
  172
  181
  189
  197
  205
  214
  222
  231
  240
  249
  259
  269
  280
  291
  303
  316
  329
  343
  357
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -95
  25
  26
  27
  27
  26
  24
  21
  17
  13
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -36
  97
  108
  118
  128
  137
  144
  150
  155
  160
  163
  164
  172
  181
  189
  197
  205
  214
  222
  231
  240
  249
  259
  269
  280
  291
  303
  316
  329
  343
  357
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -16
  126
  142
  158
  174
  190
  205
  221
  236
  250
  264
  276
  297
  319
  341
  364
  388
  413
  438
  464
  492
  520
  550
  580
  612
  646
  680
  717
  755
  795
  836
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  67
  -65
  -74
  -83
  -91
  -100
  -109
  -117
  -125
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -178
  -186
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -226
  -234
  -244
  -253
  -264
  -274
  -286
  -297
  -310
  -323
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  61
  68
  75
  82
  89
  97
  104
  110
  117
  124
  128
  141
  156
  171
  186
  202
  219
  237
  256
  275
  294
  315
  337
  359
  382
  406
  431
  457
  485
  513
Discount rate, %
 
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  57
  59
  60
  60
  60
  58
  56
  53
  49
  45
  40
  37
  34
  31
  27
  24
  20
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.1
  92.8
  90.1
  87.9
  86.1
  84.7
  83.7
  83.0
  82.5
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3
  82.3

MYR Group Inc. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides specialty electrical construction services. The Company performs construction services in two segments: Transmission and Distribution (T&D), and Commercial and Industrial (C&I). The Company provides C&I electrical contracting services to general contractors, commercial and industrial facility owners, local governments and developers in the western and northeastern United States and western Canada. The Company's T&D segment serves the T&D sector of the electric utility industry. The Company provides a range of services on electric transmission and distribution networks and substation facilities, such as design, engineering, procurement, construction and upgrade. The Company's C&I segment provides services, such as the design, installation, maintenance and repair of commercial and industrial wiring, installation of traffic networks and the installation of bridge, roadway and tunnel lighting.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MYR Group (MYRG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.4
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -46.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -10.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 24
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 24%
Total Debt to Equity 24.3%
Interest Coverage 39
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 6.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Return On Equity 7.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
EBITDA Margin 6.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Operating Margin 3.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Net Profit Margin 1.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Effective Tax Rate 44.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

MYRG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MYRG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1403 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MYR Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of MYR Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MYRG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 22.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for MYRG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MYR Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MYR Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MYRG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MYRG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for MYR Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MYR Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MYRG stock is equal to 0.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MYRG are equal to 14.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MYR Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MYRG is equal to -7.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $287 million for MYR Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16 million for MYR Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MYR Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ MYR Group Acquires The Huen Electric Companies   [Jul-03-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ MYR: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-02-18 05:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ MYR Group Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [08:55AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ MYR tops 4Q profit forecasts   [Mar-07-18 04:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MYR Group, Inc. : November 27, 2017   [Nov-27-17 02:56PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MYR Group, Inc. : November 8, 2017   [Nov-08-17 06:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for November 3rd   [Nov-03-17 07:20AM  Zacks]
▶ MYR Group Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-02-17 08:35AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ MYR misses 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-01-17 05:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ Investor Network: MYR Group Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-03-17 08:35AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ MYR misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-02-17 10:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to MYR Group, Inc. : June 19, 2017   [Jun-19-17 03:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why MYR Group Inc.'s Shares Plunged 20% Today   [May-04-17 02:49PM  Motley Fool]
▶ MYR misses Street 1Q forecasts   [May-03-17 05:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is MYR Group Inc (MYRG) A Good Investment?   [Dec-08-16 04:29PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of MYRG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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