Intrinsic value of MYR Group - MYRG

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$41.17

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$41.17

 
Intrinsic value

$47.89

 
Up/down potential

+16%

 
Rating

hold

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MYRG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.53
  26.90
  24.71
  22.74
  20.97
  19.37
  17.93
  16.64
  15.47
  14.43
  13.48
  12.64
  11.87
  11.19
  10.57
  10.01
  9.51
  9.06
  8.65
  8.29
  7.96
  7.66
  7.40
  7.16
  6.94
  6.75
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.15
  6.03
Revenue, $m
  1,142
  1,449
  1,807
  2,218
  2,683
  3,203
  3,777
  4,406
  5,088
  5,822
  6,607
  7,442
  8,325
  9,256
  10,234
  11,259
  12,329
  13,446
  14,610
  15,820
  17,079
  18,388
  19,748
  21,161
  22,630
  24,157
  25,745
  27,396
  29,115
  30,904
  32,768
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,387
  1,729
  2,121
  2,564
  3,060
  3,608
  4,207
  4,858
  5,558
  6,307
  7,098
  7,941
  8,829
  9,762
  10,740
  11,761
  12,826
  13,936
  15,091
  16,292
  17,540
  18,837
  20,186
  21,587
  23,043
  24,557
  26,133
  27,772
  29,479
  31,257
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,104
  1,387
  1,729
  2,121
  2,564
  3,060
  3,608
  4,207
  4,858
  5,558
  6,307
  7,098
  7,941
  8,829
  9,762
  10,740
  11,761
  12,826
  13,936
  15,091
  16,292
  17,540
  18,837
  20,186
  21,587
  23,043
  24,557
  26,133
  27,772
  29,479
  31,257
Operating income, $m
  39
  62
  79
  98
  119
  143
  169
  198
  230
  264
  300
  343
  384
  427
  472
  519
  569
  620
  674
  730
  788
  848
  911
  976
  1,044
  1,114
  1,187
  1,263
  1,343
  1,425
  1,511
EBITDA, $m
  78
  106
  132
  162
  196
  234
  276
  322
  372
  425
  482
  543
  608
  676
  747
  822
  900
  982
  1,067
  1,155
  1,247
  1,343
  1,442
  1,545
  1,653
  1,764
  1,880
  2,001
  2,126
  2,257
  2,393
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  2
  5
  9
  12
  17
  22
  27
  33
  40
  47
  54
  62
  71
  79
  89
  98
  109
  119
  130
  142
  154
  166
  179
  193
  207
  221
  236
  252
  268
  285
Earnings before tax, $m
  38
  60
  74
  89
  107
  126
  148
  171
  197
  224
  253
  289
  322
  356
  393
  431
  470
  511
  555
  599
  646
  694
  744
  797
  851
  907
  966
  1,027
  1,091
  1,157
  1,226
Tax expense, $m
  17
  16
  20
  24
  29
  34
  40
  46
  53
  60
  68
  78
  87
  96
  106
  116
  127
  138
  150
  162
  174
  187
  201
  215
  230
  245
  261
  277
  295
  312
  331
Net income, $m
  21
  44
  54
  65
  78
  92
  108
  125
  144
  164
  185
  211
  235
  260
  287
  314
  343
  373
  405
  437
  471
  507
  543
  582
  621
  662
  705
  750
  796
  845
  895

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  574
  698
  871
  1,069
  1,293
  1,543
  1,820
  2,122
  2,451
  2,804
  3,182
  3,585
  4,010
  4,459
  4,930
  5,423
  5,939
  6,477
  7,037
  7,621
  8,227
  8,857
  9,513
  10,193
  10,901
  11,636
  12,401
  13,197
  14,025
  14,886
  15,784
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  550
  698
  871
  1,069
  1,293
  1,543
  1,820
  2,122
  2,451
  2,804
  3,182
  3,585
  4,010
  4,459
  4,930
  5,423
  5,939
  6,477
  7,037
  7,621
  8,227
  8,857
  9,513
  10,193
  10,901
  11,636
  12,401
  13,197
  14,025
  14,886
  15,784
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.076
  2.076
  2.075
  2.075
  2.075
  2.076
  2.075
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
  2.076
Average production assets, $m
  169
  214
  267
  328
  397
  474
  559
  652
  753
  862
  978
  1,101
  1,232
  1,370
  1,515
  1,666
  1,825
  1,990
  2,162
  2,341
  2,528
  2,721
  2,923
  3,132
  3,349
  3,575
  3,810
  4,055
  4,309
  4,574
  4,850
Working capital, $m
  130
  136
  170
  209
  252
  301
  355
  414
  478
  547
  621
  700
  783
  870
  962
  1,058
  1,159
  1,264
  1,373
  1,487
  1,605
  1,728
  1,856
  1,989
  2,127
  2,271
  2,420
  2,575
  2,737
  2,905
  3,080
Total debt, $m
  64
  147
  244
  356
  482
  623
  779
  950
  1,135
  1,335
  1,548
  1,775
  2,015
  2,268
  2,533
  2,812
  3,103
  3,406
  3,722
  4,051
  4,393
  4,749
  5,118
  5,502
  5,901
  6,316
  6,747
  7,196
  7,663
  8,149
  8,655
Total liabilities, $m
  310
  394
  491
  603
  729
  870
  1,026
  1,197
  1,382
  1,582
  1,795
  2,022
  2,262
  2,515
  2,780
  3,059
  3,350
  3,653
  3,969
  4,298
  4,640
  4,996
  5,365
  5,749
  6,148
  6,563
  6,994
  7,443
  7,910
  8,396
  8,902
Total equity, $m
  263
  304
  380
  466
  564
  673
  793
  925
  1,069
  1,223
  1,388
  1,563
  1,748
  1,944
  2,149
  2,365
  2,589
  2,824
  3,068
  3,323
  3,587
  3,862
  4,147
  4,444
  4,753
  5,073
  5,407
  5,754
  6,115
  6,491
  6,882
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  573
  698
  871
  1,069
  1,293
  1,543
  1,819
  2,122
  2,451
  2,805
  3,183
  3,585
  4,010
  4,459
  4,929
  5,424
  5,939
  6,477
  7,037
  7,621
  8,227
  8,858
  9,512
  10,193
  10,901
  11,636
  12,401
  13,197
  14,025
  14,887
  15,784
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.243
  0.480
  0.640
  0.760
  0.860
  0.930
  0.980
  1.030
  1.060
  1.090
  1.120
  1.140
  1.150
  1.170
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.435
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  21
  44
  54
  65
  78
  92
  108
  125
  144
  164
  185
  211
  235
  260
  287
  314
  343
  373
  405
  437
  471
  507
  543
  582
  621
  662
  705
  750
  796
  845
  895
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  39
  44
  53
  64
  77
  91
  106
  123
  142
  161
  182
  200
  224
  249
  275
  303
  332
  362
  393
  426
  460
  495
  531
  569
  609
  650
  693
  737
  783
  832
  882
Funds from operations, $m
  40
  87
  107
  129
  155
  183
  214
  248
  285
  325
  367
  411
  459
  509
  562
  617
  675
  735
  798
  863
  931
  1,002
  1,075
  1,151
  1,230
  1,313
  1,398
  1,487
  1,580
  1,676
  1,777
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  29
  34
  39
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
  149
  155
  162
  168
  175
Cash from operations, $m
  54
  57
  73
  91
  111
  134
  160
  189
  221
  256
  294
  333
  376
  422
  470
  521
  574
  630
  689
  749
  813
  879
  947
  1,018
  1,092
  1,169
  1,249
  1,332
  1,418
  1,508
  1,601
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -31
  -39
  -49
  -60
  -72
  -86
  -102
  -119
  -137
  -157
  -178
  -200
  -224
  -249
  -275
  -303
  -332
  -362
  -393
  -426
  -460
  -495
  -531
  -569
  -609
  -650
  -693
  -737
  -783
  -832
New CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -45
  -53
  -61
  -69
  -77
  -85
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -116
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -226
  -235
  -244
  -254
  -265
  -276
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -34
  -76
  -92
  -110
  -129
  -149
  -171
  -195
  -220
  -246
  -273
  -302
  -331
  -362
  -394
  -427
  -461
  -497
  -534
  -572
  -612
  -654
  -696
  -740
  -786
  -835
  -885
  -937
  -991
  -1,048
  -1,108
Free cash flow, $m
  20
  -20
  -19
  -19
  -18
  -15
  -11
  -6
  2
  10
  21
  31
  45
  60
  76
  94
  113
  133
  155
  177
  201
  225
  251
  278
  305
  334
  364
  395
  427
  460
  494
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  58
  84
  97
  112
  126
  141
  156
  171
  185
  199
  213
  227
  240
  253
  266
  278
  291
  303
  316
  329
  342
  356
  369
  384
  399
  415
  431
  449
  467
  486
  506
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -95
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -36
  84
  97
  112
  126
  141
  156
  171
  185
  199
  213
  227
  240
  253
  266
  278
  291
  303
  316
  329
  342
  356
  369
  384
  399
  415
  431
  449
  467
  486
  506
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -16
  64
  79
  93
  109
  126
  145
  165
  187
  210
  234
  258
  285
  313
  342
  372
  404
  437
  471
  506
  543
  581
  620
  662
  704
  749
  795
  843
  894
  946
  1,000
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  67
  -64
  -75
  -86
  -98
  -109
  -121
  -132
  -143
  -154
  -165
  -175
  -186
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -235
  -244
  -254
  -264
  -275
  -286
  -297
  -308
  -321
  -333
  -347
  -361
  -376
  -391
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  23
  3
  7
  11
  17
  24
  33
  44
  56
  69
  83
  99
  117
  137
  157
  179
  202
  226
  252
  278
  306
  335
  365
  396
  428
  462
  496
  533
  570
  609
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  22
  3
  6
  9
  13
  18
  22
  27
  32
  36
  39
  42
  45
  46
  46
  45
  44
  42
  39
  35
  32
  28
  24
  20
  17
  13
  11
  8
  6
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

MYR Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides electrical construction services in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments, Transmission and Distribution, and Commercial and Industrial. The Transmission and Distribution segment offers a range of services on electric transmission and distribution networks, and substation facilities, including design, engineering, procurement, construction, upgrade, maintenance, and repair services with primary focus on construction, maintenance, and repair to customers in the electric utility and the renewable energy industries. Its services comprise construction and maintenance of high voltage transmission lines, substations, and lower voltage underground and overhead distribution systems; and storm restoration services in response to hurricane, ice, or other storm related damages. This segment serves as a prime contractor to customers, such as investor-owned utilities, cooperatives, private developers, government-funded utilities, independent power producers, independent transmission companies, industrial facility owners, and other contractors. The Commercial and Industrial segment provides services, such as design, installation, maintenance, and repair of commercial and industrial wiring; and installation of traffic networks, bridge, roadway, and tunnel lighting. This segment offers its services for airports, hospitals, data centers, hotels, stadiums, convention centers, manufacturing plants, processing facilities, waste-water treatment facilities, mining facilities, and transportation control and management systems. It serves general contractors, commercial and industrial facility owners, local governments, and developers. MYR Group Inc. was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Rolling Meadows, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  MYR Group (MYRG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -46.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -10.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 24
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 24%
Total Debt to Equity 24.3%
Interest Coverage 39
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 6.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Return On Equity 7.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.1%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 11.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
EBITDA Margin 6.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Operating Margin 3.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Net Profit Margin 1.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Effective Tax Rate 44.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

MYRG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MYRG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1142 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by MYR Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of MYR Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MYRG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 26.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MYRG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of MYR Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of MYR Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MYRG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MYRG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for MYR Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for MYR Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MYRG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MYRG are equal to 14.8%.

Life of production assets of 5.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in MYR Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MYRG is equal to 9.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $263 million for MYR Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.401 million for MYR Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of MYR Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.


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Stock chart of MYRG Financial statements of MYRG
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