Intrinsic value of Mazor Robotics ADR - MZOR

Previous Close

$37.25

  Intrinsic Value

$0.68

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

  Value-price divergence*

-203%

Previous close

$37.25

 
Intrinsic value

$0.68

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-203%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of MZOR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  38.46
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  36
  58
  89
  133
  193
  272
  375
  503
  660
  849
  1,073
  1,332
  1,629
  1,963
  2,336
  2,747
  3,195
  3,680
  4,202
  4,759
  5,351
  5,976
  6,634
  7,325
  8,049
  8,804
  9,592
  10,413
  11,266
  12,154
  13,076
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  80
  124
  185
  268
  378
  520
  698
  917
  1,180
  1,490
  1,851
  2,263
  2,727
  3,245
  3,815
  4,438
  5,112
  5,837
  6,610
  7,432
  8,301
  9,215
  10,175
  11,180
  12,229
  13,324
  14,463
  15,649
  16,882
  18,163
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
Total operating expenses, $m
  55
  85
  129
  190
  274
  384
  526
  704
  923
  1,186
  1,496
  1,858
  2,270
  2,734
  3,252
  3,822
  4,445
  5,120
  5,845
  6,618
  7,440
  8,309
  9,224
  10,184
  11,189
  12,238
  13,334
  14,473
  15,659
  16,892
  18,173
Operating income, $m
  -19
  -28
  -40
  -57
  -81
  -112
  -151
  -202
  -263
  -337
  -424
  -525
  -640
  -771
  -916
  -1,076
  -1,250
  -1,439
  -1,642
  -1,859
  -2,090
  -2,333
  -2,589
  -2,858
  -3,140
  -3,434
  -3,741
  -4,060
  -4,393
  -4,738
  -5,097
EBITDA, $m
  -18
  -27
  -39
  -56
  -79
  -109
  -148
  -197
  -256
  -328
  -413
  -512
  -625
  -752
  -893
  -1,049
  -1,219
  -1,404
  -1,602
  -1,813
  -2,038
  -2,275
  -2,525
  -2,787
  -3,062
  -3,349
  -3,648
  -3,959
  -4,283
  -4,620
  -4,970
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  18
  23
  28
  34
  40
  47
  55
  64
  73
  83
  93
  104
  115
  128
  140
  153
  167
  182
  197
  212
Earnings before tax, $m
  -19
  -28
  -40
  -58
  -82
  -114
  -156
  -207
  -271
  -348
  -438
  -543
  -663
  -799
  -949
  -1,116
  -1,298
  -1,495
  -1,706
  -1,932
  -2,172
  -2,426
  -2,693
  -2,974
  -3,268
  -3,574
  -3,894
  -4,227
  -4,574
  -4,935
  -5,309
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -19
  -28
  -40
  -58
  -82
  -114
  -156
  -207
  -271
  -348
  -438
  -543
  -663
  -799
  -949
  -1,116
  -1,298
  -1,495
  -1,706
  -1,932
  -2,172
  -2,426
  -2,693
  -2,974
  -3,268
  -3,574
  -3,894
  -4,227
  -4,574
  -4,935
  -5,309

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  53
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  83
  48
  74
  111
  161
  227
  312
  419
  550
  708
  894
  1,110
  1,357
  1,636
  1,947
  2,289
  2,663
  3,067
  3,502
  3,966
  4,459
  4,980
  5,529
  6,105
  6,707
  7,337
  7,993
  8,677
  9,389
  10,128
  10,897
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  30
  48
  74
  111
  161
  227
  312
  419
  550
  708
  894
  1,110
  1,357
  1,636
  1,947
  2,289
  2,663
  3,067
  3,502
  3,966
  4,459
  4,980
  5,529
  6,105
  6,707
  7,337
  7,993
  8,677
  9,389
  10,128
  10,897
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.200
  1.208
  1.203
  1.198
  1.199
  1.198
  1.202
  1.200
  1.200
  1.199
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
Average production assets, $m
  4
  6
  9
  13
  19
  26
  36
  49
  64
  82
  104
  129
  158
  190
  227
  266
  310
  357
  408
  462
  519
  580
  644
  711
  781
  854
  930
  1,010
  1,093
  1,179
  1,268
Working capital, $m
  49
  -6
  -9
  -13
  -19
  -27
  -37
  -50
  -66
  -85
  -107
  -133
  -163
  -196
  -234
  -275
  -320
  -368
  -420
  -476
  -535
  -598
  -663
  -733
  -805
  -880
  -959
  -1,041
  -1,127
  -1,215
  -1,308
Total debt, $m
  0
  11
  26
  49
  79
  118
  169
  233
  312
  407
  518
  648
  796
  964
  1,150
  1,355
  1,580
  1,822
  2,083
  2,362
  2,657
  2,970
  3,299
  3,645
  4,006
  4,384
  4,778
  5,188
  5,615
  6,059
  6,520
Total liabilities, $m
  18
  29
  44
  67
  97
  136
  187
  251
  330
  425
  536
  666
  814
  982
  1,168
  1,373
  1,598
  1,840
  2,101
  2,380
  2,675
  2,988
  3,317
  3,663
  4,024
  4,402
  4,796
  5,206
  5,633
  6,077
  6,538
Total equity, $m
  65
  19
  30
  44
  64
  91
  125
  168
  220
  283
  358
  444
  543
  654
  779
  916
  1,065
  1,227
  1,401
  1,586
  1,784
  1,992
  2,211
  2,442
  2,683
  2,935
  3,197
  3,471
  3,755
  4,051
  4,359
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  83
  48
  74
  111
  161
  227
  312
  419
  550
  708
  894
  1,110
  1,357
  1,636
  1,947
  2,289
  2,663
  3,067
  3,502
  3,966
  4,459
  4,980
  5,528
  6,105
  6,707
  7,337
  7,993
  8,677
  9,388
  10,128
  10,897
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.560
  0.890
  1.090
  1.220
  1.300
  1.360
  1.390
  1.420
  1.440
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.470
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -19
  -28
  -40
  -58
  -82
  -114
  -156
  -207
  -271
  -348
  -438
  -543
  -663
  -799
  -949
  -1,116
  -1,298
  -1,495
  -1,706
  -1,932
  -2,172
  -2,426
  -2,693
  -2,974
  -3,268
  -3,574
  -3,894
  -4,227
  -4,574
  -4,935
  -5,309
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  23
  27
  31
  36
  41
  46
  52
  58
  64
  71
  78
  85
  93
  101
  109
  118
  127
Funds from operations, $m
  -6
  -27
  -39
  -57
  -80
  -112
  -152
  -203
  -265
  -339
  -428
  -530
  -647
  -779
  -927
  -1,089
  -1,267
  -1,459
  -1,665
  -1,886
  -2,120
  -2,368
  -2,629
  -2,903
  -3,190
  -3,489
  -3,801
  -4,126
  -4,465
  -4,817
  -5,182
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
Cash from operations, $m
  -10
  -25
  -36
  -52
  -74
  -104
  -142
  -190
  -249
  -320
  -405
  -504
  -618
  -746
  -890
  -1,048
  -1,222
  -1,410
  -1,613
  -1,830
  -2,061
  -2,306
  -2,563
  -2,834
  -3,117
  -3,413
  -3,722
  -4,044
  -4,380
  -4,728
  -5,090
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -52
  -58
  -64
  -71
  -78
  -85
  -93
  -101
  -109
  -118
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -24
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -24
  -30
  -35
  -42
  -48
  -55
  -63
  -70
  -78
  -87
  -95
  -103
  -113
  -122
  -131
  -141
  -151
  -161
  -173
  -184
  -195
  -207
Free cash flow, $m
  -34
  -27
  -40
  -58
  -82
  -113
  -154
  -206
  -269
  -345
  -435
  -540
  -659
  -794
  -945
  -1,111
  -1,292
  -1,488
  -1,700
  -1,925
  -2,165
  -2,418
  -2,685
  -2,965
  -3,258
  -3,565
  -3,884
  -4,217
  -4,563
  -4,923
  -5,298
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  11
  16
  22
  30
  40
  51
  64
  79
  95
  112
  130
  148
  167
  186
  205
  224
  243
  261
  278
  296
  313
  329
  346
  362
  378
  394
  410
  427
  444
  461
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  35
  51
  73
  102
  141
  190
  250
  324
  411
  512
  629
  762
  910
  1,074
  1,253
  1,447
  1,656
  1,880
  2,118
  2,369
  2,634
  2,913
  3,204
  3,509
  3,826
  4,157
  4,501
  4,859
  5,230
  5,617
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  36
  46
  67
  95
  132
  181
  241
  314
  403
  506
  624
  759
  910
  1,077
  1,260
  1,458
  1,671
  1,899
  2,141
  2,396
  2,665
  2,947
  3,242
  3,550
  3,871
  4,204
  4,551
  4,911
  5,286
  5,674
  6,078
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  18
  27
  37
  51
  67
  86
  108
  133
  160
  189
  219
  251
  283
  315
  347
  379
  411
  441
  471
  500
  529
  557
  585
  612
  639
  667
  694
  722
  751
  781
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -23
  -35
  -51
  -73
  -102
  -141
  -190
  -250
  -324
  -411
  -512
  -629
  -762
  -910
  -1,074
  -1,253
  -1,447
  -1,656
  -1,880
  -2,118
  -2,369
  -2,634
  -2,913
  -3,204
  -3,509
  -3,826
  -4,157
  -4,501
  -4,859
  -5,230
  -5,617
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  53
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  37
  -24
  -35
  -52
  -74
  -103
  -142
  -190
  -251
  -323
  -410
  -511
  -627
  -758
  -905
  -1,068
  -1,246
  -1,439
  -1,647
  -1,869
  -2,105
  -2,356
  -2,620
  -2,897
  -3,187
  -3,490
  -3,807
  -4,136
  -4,480
  -4,836
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  35
  -22
  -31
  -42
  -57
  -75
  -96
  -119
  -144
  -170
  -195
  -218
  -238
  -255
  -266
  -271
  -271
  -265
  -254
  -237
  -218
  -195
  -172
  -148
  -124
  -102
  -82
  -64
  -49
  -36
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  77.6
  61.3
  49.3
  40.0
  32.8
  27.2
  22.6
  19.0
  16.0
  13.5
  11.5
  9.8
  8.4
  7.2
  6.2
  5.4
  4.7
  4.0
  3.5
  3.0
  2.7
  2.3
  2.0
  1.8
  1.5
  1.4
  1.2
  1.0
  0.9
  0.8

Mazor Robotics Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, production, marketing, and servicing of medical devices for supporting surgical procedures in the fields of orthopedics and neurosurgery in the United States and internationally. The company operates in the field of image guided surgery and computer assisted surgery that enables the use of surgical instruments with high precision and minimal invasiveness. It offers Renaissance surgical guidance system that transforms spine surgery from freehand procedures to guided procedures. The company was formerly known as Mazor Surgical Technologies Ltd. and changed its name to Mazor Robotics Ltd. in 2010. Mazor Robotics Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is based in Caesarea, Israel.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Mazor Robotics ADR (MZOR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -93.4
Price to Sales 49.3
Price to Book 27.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -177.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -126.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 38.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 300%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -28.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -26%
Return On Total Capital -35.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -30.7%
Return On Equity -35.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -30.7%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71%
EBITDA Margin -50%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -56.8%
Operating Margin -52.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -60.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -52.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -60.6%
Net Profit Margin -52.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -60.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

MZOR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the MZOR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $36 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Mazor Robotics ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Mazor Robotics ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our MZOR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for MZOR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Mazor Robotics ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Mazor Robotics ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of MZOR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 138.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $5 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for MZOR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Mazor Robotics ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Mazor Robotics ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the MZOR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for MZOR are equal to 9.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Mazor Robotics ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for MZOR is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $65 million for Mazor Robotics ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.769 million for Mazor Robotics ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Mazor Robotics ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Why Mazor Robotics Dropped 15.6% in June   [Jul-10-17 09:44AM  Motley Fool]
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Stock chart of MZOR Financial statements of MZOR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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