Intrinsic value of Nanometrics - NANO

Previous Close

$27.16

  Intrinsic Value

$93.13

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+243%

Previous close

$27.16

 
Intrinsic value

$93.13

 
Up/down potential

+243%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of NANO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.18
  18.20
  16.88
  15.69
  14.62
  13.66
  12.79
  12.02
  11.31
  10.68
  10.11
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.36
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
Revenue, $m
  221
  261
  305
  353
  405
  460
  519
  581
  647
  716
  789
  865
  944
  1,026
  1,112
  1,201
  1,293
  1,390
  1,490
  1,594
  1,702
  1,814
  1,931
  2,053
  2,180
  2,312
  2,449
  2,592
  2,742
  2,898
  3,061
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  77
  89
  103
  118
  134
  151
  169
  189
  209
  230
  251
  274
  297
  322
  348
  375
  403
  432
  462
  493
  526
  560
  595
  632
  670
  710
  752
  795
  840
  887
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  133
  137
  140
  143
  147
  151
  155
  158
  162
  166
  171
  175
  179
  184
  188
  193
  198
  203
  208
  213
  218
  224
  229
  235
  241
  247
  253
  260
  266
  273
Total operating expenses, $m
  192
  210
  226
  243
  261
  281
  302
  324
  347
  371
  396
  422
  449
  476
  506
  536
  568
  601
  635
  670
  706
  744
  784
  824
  867
  911
  957
  1,005
  1,055
  1,106
  1,160
Operating income, $m
  29
  51
  79
  110
  143
  179
  217
  257
  300
  345
  393
  443
  495
  549
  606
  664
  725
  789
  855
  924
  996
  1,070
  1,148
  1,228
  1,313
  1,400
  1,492
  1,588
  1,687
  1,792
  1,901
EBITDA, $m
  37
  60
  89
  121
  156
  194
  233
  276
  321
  368
  417
  469
  524
  580
  639
  701
  764
  831
  900
  972
  1,047
  1,125
  1,206
  1,290
  1,378
  1,470
  1,566
  1,666
  1,770
  1,879
  1,993
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  18
  19
Earnings before tax, $m
  29
  51
  79
  109
  142
  178
  215
  255
  298
  342
  389
  439
  491
  544
  600
  658
  719
  782
  847
  915
  986
  1,060
  1,137
  1,217
  1,300
  1,387
  1,477
  1,572
  1,671
  1,774
  1,882
Tax expense, $m
  -15
  14
  21
  30
  38
  48
  58
  69
  80
  92
  105
  119
  132
  147
  162
  178
  194
  211
  229
  247
  266
  286
  307
  328
  351
  374
  399
  424
  451
  479
  508
Net income, $m
  44
  37
  58
  80
  104
  130
  157
  186
  217
  250
  284
  321
  358
  397
  438
  480
  525
  571
  618
  668
  720
  774
  830
  888
  949
  1,012
  1,079
  1,148
  1,220
  1,295
  1,374

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  130
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  288
  187
  218
  252
  289
  329
  371
  416
  463
  512
  564
  618
  674
  733
  795
  858
  925
  993
  1,065
  1,139
  1,217
  1,297
  1,381
  1,467
  1,558
  1,652
  1,751
  1,853
  1,960
  2,071
  2,188
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  158
  187
  218
  252
  289
  329
  371
  416
  463
  512
  564
  618
  674
  733
  795
  858
  925
  993
  1,065
  1,139
  1,217
  1,297
  1,381
  1,467
  1,558
  1,652
  1,751
  1,853
  1,960
  2,071
  2,188
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.399
  1.396
  1.399
  1.401
  1.401
  1.398
  1.399
  1.397
  1.397
  1.398
  1.399
  1.400
  1.401
  1.400
  1.399
  1.400
  1.398
  1.400
  1.399
  1.399
  1.399
  1.399
  1.398
  1.399
  1.399
  1.400
  1.399
  1.399
  1.399
  1.399
  1.399
Average production assets, $m
  46
  54
  64
  73
  84
  96
  108
  121
  135
  149
  164
  180
  196
  213
  231
  250
  269
  289
  310
  332
  354
  377
  402
  427
  453
  481
  509
  539
  570
  603
  637
Working capital, $m
  174
  52
  61
  70
  81
  92
  103
  116
  129
  143
  157
  172
  188
  204
  221
  239
  257
  277
  296
  317
  339
  361
  384
  409
  434
  460
  487
  516
  546
  577
  609
Total debt, $m
  0
  8
  17
  26
  36
  47
  59
  72
  85
  98
  113
  128
  144
  160
  177
  195
  213
  232
  252
  273
  294
  317
  340
  364
  389
  415
  443
  471
  501
  532
  564
Total liabilities, $m
  44
  52
  61
  70
  80
  91
  103
  116
  129
  142
  157
  172
  188
  204
  221
  239
  257
  276
  296
  317
  338
  361
  384
  408
  433
  459
  487
  515
  545
  576
  608
Total equity, $m
  244
  135
  158
  182
  209
  237
  268
  300
  334
  370
  407
  446
  487
  529
  574
  620
  668
  717
  769
  823
  878
  936
  997
  1,060
  1,125
  1,193
  1,264
  1,338
  1,415
  1,496
  1,580
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  288
  187
  219
  252
  289
  328
  371
  416
  463
  512
  564
  618
  675
  733
  795
  859
  925
  993
  1,065
  1,140
  1,216
  1,297
  1,381
  1,468
  1,558
  1,652
  1,751
  1,853
  1,960
  2,072
  2,188
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.060
  0.110
  0.140
  0.170
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722
  0.722

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  44
  37
  58
  80
  104
  130
  157
  186
  217
  250
  284
  321
  358
  397
  438
  480
  525
  571
  618
  668
  720
  774
  830
  888
  949
  1,012
  1,079
  1,148
  1,220
  1,295
  1,374
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  25
  26
  28
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
Funds from operations, $m
  46
  46
  68
  91
  117
  144
  174
  205
  238
  272
  309
  347
  387
  428
  472
  517
  564
  612
  663
  716
  771
  828
  888
  950
  1,015
  1,082
  1,152
  1,226
  1,302
  1,383
  1,466
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  32
Cash from operations, $m
  46
  38
  59
  82
  107
  133
  162
  192
  225
  259
  294
  332
  371
  412
  455
  499
  545
  593
  643
  695
  750
  806
  865
  926
  989
  1,056
  1,125
  1,197
  1,273
  1,352
  1,434
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -42
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
Free cash flow, $m
  4
  23
  42
  63
  85
  110
  136
  164
  193
  225
  258
  292
  328
  366
  406
  447
  490
  534
  581
  629
  679
  731
  786
  842
  901
  963
  1,027
  1,094
  1,163
  1,236
  1,313
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  5
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  9
  31
  51
  72
  95
  121
  148
  176
  207
  239
  272
  307
  344
  383
  423
  465
  508
  553
  601
  650
  701
  754
  809
  866
  926
  989
  1,054
  1,122
  1,193
  1,267
  1,345
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -57
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  130
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  140
  28
  47
  69
  92
  117
  144
  173
  203
  235
  268
  303
  340
  379
  419
  460
  504
  549
  596
  645
  696
  748
  804
  861
  921
  983
  1,048
  1,116
  1,187
  1,261
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  135
  26
  41
  57
  71
  85
  97
  108
  117
  123
  127
  129
  129
  127
  123
  117
  110
  101
  92
  82
  72
  62
  53
  44
  36
  29
  22
  17
  13
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Nanometrics Incorporated is a provider of process control metrology and inspection systems used primarily in the fabrication of semiconductors and other solid-state devices, including sensors, optoelectronic devices, high-brightness (HB) light emitting diodes (LEDs), discretes and data storages components. The Company's automated and integrated metrology systems measure critical dimensions, device structures, topography and various thin film properties, including three-dimensional features and film thickness, as well as optical, electrical and material properties. The Company's process control solutions are deployed throughout the fabrication process, from front-end-of-line substrate manufacturing, to production of semiconductors and other devices, to three-dimensional wafer-level packaging applications. The Company's automated systems primarily consist of automated metrology systems that are employed in semiconductor production environments.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Nanometrics (NANO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.5
Price to Sales 3.1
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 18.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 16.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Return On Total Capital 20.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Equity 20.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 51.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.5%
EBITDA Margin 16.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Operating Margin 13.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Net Profit Margin 19.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Effective Tax Rate -51.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

NANO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NANO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $221 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Nanometrics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Nanometrics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NANO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 18.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NANO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Nanometrics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Nanometrics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NANO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 29.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $130 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NANO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Nanometrics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Nanometrics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NANO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NANO are equal to 20.8%.

Life of production assets of 6.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Nanometrics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NANO is equal to 19.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $244 million for Nanometrics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.495 million for Nanometrics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Nanometrics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Nanometrics Announces $50 Million Share Repurchase Program   [Nov-15-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Nanometrics beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Nov-06-17 05:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ Nanometrics Reports Third Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Nov-02-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Company News For Oct 13, 2017   [Oct-13-17 10:15AM  Zacks]
▶ Nanometrics Announces Upcoming Investor Events   [Aug-02-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Nanometrics misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-01-17 11:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ Nanometrics Introduces SpectraProbe Analysis Software   [Jul-11-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Nanometrics Releases NanoDiffract 4   [Jul-10-17 05:10PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Nanometrics, Inc. : June 13, 2017   [Jun-13-17 12:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Analyst: Tech stocks suffering from 'healthy correction'   [Jun-12-17 02:05PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Nanometrics, Inc. : May 29, 2017   [May-29-17 12:50PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Nanometrics, Inc. : May 18, 2017   [May-18-17 01:54PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Nanometrics Announces Upcoming Investor Events   [May-04-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why Nanometrics Incorporated Stock Plunged Today   [May-03-17 03:25PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Nanometrics posts 1Q profit   [May-02-17 07:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Nanometrics, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Nanometrics beats 4Q profit forecasts   [06:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Activist Investor Presses Rudolph Technologies, Nanometrics to Merge   [Jan-19-17 11:03AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Dumping Nanometrics Incorporated (NANO)   [Dec-05-16 03:53AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Nanometrics, Inc. : August 23, 2016   [Aug-23-16 12:11PM  Capital Cube]
Financial statements of NANO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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