Intrinsic value of Navistar International - NAV

Previous Close

$42.01

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

-213%

Previous close

$42.01

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-213%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NAV stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -20.01
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  8,111
  8,273
  8,464
  8,681
  8,925
  9,196
  9,493
  9,816
  10,166
  10,543
  10,948
  11,380
  11,842
  12,334
  12,857
  13,411
  13,999
  14,621
  15,279
  15,974
  16,708
  17,483
  18,299
  19,160
  20,067
  21,023
  22,029
  23,087
  24,201
  25,374
  26,606
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  8,091
  8,277
  8,490
  8,728
  8,993
  9,283
  9,599
  9,941
  10,310
  10,705
  11,125
  11,576
  12,057
  12,568
  13,110
  13,685
  14,293
  14,936
  15,615
  16,333
  17,090
  17,888
  18,730
  19,617
  20,550
  21,534
  22,569
  23,658
  24,803
  26,009
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,822
  8,091
  8,277
  8,490
  8,728
  8,993
  9,283
  9,599
  9,941
  10,310
  10,705
  11,125
  11,576
  12,057
  12,568
  13,110
  13,685
  14,293
  14,936
  15,615
  16,333
  17,090
  17,888
  18,730
  19,617
  20,550
  21,534
  22,569
  23,658
  24,803
  26,009
Operating income, $m
  289
  182
  186
  191
  197
  203
  209
  217
  225
  233
  242
  256
  266
  277
  289
  301
  315
  329
  343
  359
  375
  393
  411
  431
  451
  472
  495
  519
  544
  570
  598
EBITDA, $m
  514
  407
  417
  427
  440
  453
  467
  483
  501
  519
  539
  560
  583
  607
  633
  660
  689
  720
  752
  787
  823
  861
  901
  944
  988
  1,035
  1,085
  1,137
  1,192
  1,249
  1,310
Interest expense (income), $m
  291
  231
  -93
  -88
  -81
  -74
  -65
  -56
  -47
  -36
  -24
  -12
  1
  15
  30
  46
  63
  81
  99
  119
  141
  163
  186
  211
  237
  265
  294
  324
  357
  390
  426
Earnings before tax, $m
  -32
  -49
  280
  279
  278
  276
  275
  273
  271
  269
  267
  268
  265
  262
  259
  256
  252
  248
  244
  240
  235
  230
  225
  219
  214
  208
  201
  194
  187
  180
  172
Tax expense, $m
  33
  0
  76
  75
  75
  75
  74
  74
  73
  73
  72
  72
  72
  71
  70
  69
  68
  67
  66
  65
  63
  62
  61
  59
  58
  56
  54
  52
  51
  49
  46
Net income, $m
  -97
  -49
  204
  204
  203
  202
  201
  199
  198
  196
  195
  196
  194
  191
  189
  187
  184
  181
  178
  175
  171
  168
  164
  160
  156
  151
  147
  142
  137
  131
  125

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  850
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,653
  4,898
  5,011
  5,140
  5,284
  5,445
  5,620
  5,812
  6,019
  6,242
  6,482
  6,738
  7,011
  7,303
  7,612
  7,940
  8,288
  8,657
  9,046
  9,458
  9,892
  10,351
  10,834
  11,344
  11,881
  12,447
  13,042
  13,669
  14,329
  15,023
  15,753
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,803
  4,898
  5,011
  5,140
  5,284
  5,445
  5,620
  5,812
  6,019
  6,242
  6,482
  6,738
  7,011
  7,303
  7,612
  7,940
  8,288
  8,657
  9,046
  9,458
  9,892
  10,351
  10,834
  11,344
  11,881
  12,447
  13,042
  13,669
  14,329
  15,023
  15,753
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
  1.689
Average production assets, $m
  1,348
  1,373
  1,405
  1,441
  1,482
  1,527
  1,576
  1,629
  1,688
  1,750
  1,817
  1,889
  1,966
  2,047
  2,134
  2,226
  2,324
  2,427
  2,536
  2,652
  2,774
  2,902
  3,038
  3,181
  3,331
  3,490
  3,657
  3,833
  4,017
  4,212
  4,417
Working capital, $m
  556
  629
  643
  660
  678
  699
  721
  746
  773
  801
  832
  865
  900
  937
  977
  1,019
  1,064
  1,111
  1,161
  1,214
  1,270
  1,329
  1,391
  1,456
  1,525
  1,598
  1,674
  1,755
  1,839
  1,928
  2,022
Total debt, $m
  4,904
  -1,639
  -1,537
  -1,421
  -1,291
  -1,147
  -989
  -816
  -630
  -429
  -213
  17
  263
  525
  804
  1,099
  1,413
  1,744
  2,095
  2,465
  2,856
  3,269
  3,704
  4,163
  4,646
  5,155
  5,691
  6,255
  6,849
  7,474
  8,130
Total liabilities, $m
  10,951
  4,408
  4,510
  4,626
  4,756
  4,900
  5,058
  5,231
  5,417
  5,618
  5,834
  6,064
  6,310
  6,572
  6,851
  7,146
  7,460
  7,791
  8,142
  8,512
  8,903
  9,316
  9,751
  10,210
  10,693
  11,202
  11,738
  12,302
  12,896
  13,521
  14,177
Total equity, $m
  -5,298
  490
  501
  514
  528
  544
  562
  581
  602
  624
  648
  674
  701
  730
  761
  794
  829
  866
  905
  946
  989
  1,035
  1,083
  1,134
  1,188
  1,245
  1,304
  1,367
  1,433
  1,502
  1,575
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,653
  4,898
  5,011
  5,140
  5,284
  5,444
  5,620
  5,812
  6,019
  6,242
  6,482
  6,738
  7,011
  7,302
  7,612
  7,940
  8,289
  8,657
  9,047
  9,458
  9,892
  10,351
  10,834
  11,344
  11,881
  12,447
  13,042
  13,669
  14,329
  15,023
  15,752
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -0.926
  -3.350
  -3.070
  -2.770
  -2.440
  -2.110
  -1.760
  -1.400
  -1.050
  -0.690
  -0.330
  0.030
  0.380
  0.720
  1.060
  1.380
  1.700
  2.010
  2.320
  2.610
  2.890
  3.160
  3.420
  3.670
  3.910
  4.140
  4.360
  4.580
  4.780
  4.970
  5.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.280
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -97
  -49
  204
  204
  203
  202
  201
  199
  198
  196
  195
  196
  194
  191
  189
  187
  184
  181
  178
  175
  171
  168
  164
  160
  156
  151
  147
  142
  137
  131
  125
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  225
  225
  230
  236
  243
  250
  258
  267
  276
  286
  297
  305
  317
  330
  344
  359
  375
  391
  409
  428
  447
  468
  490
  513
  537
  563
  590
  618
  648
  679
  712
Funds from operations, $m
  294
  176
  435
  440
  446
  452
  459
  466
  474
  482
  492
  500
  511
  522
  533
  546
  559
  573
  587
  603
  619
  636
  654
  673
  693
  714
  737
  760
  785
  811
  838
Change in working capital, $m
  27
  12
  14
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
Cash from operations, $m
  267
  164
  420
  423
  427
  431
  436
  441
  447
  454
  461
  467
  475
  484
  494
  503
  514
  525
  537
  550
  563
  577
  592
  608
  624
  642
  660
  680
  700
  721
  744
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -217
  -222
  -227
  -232
  -239
  -246
  -254
  -263
  -272
  -282
  -293
  -305
  -317
  -330
  -344
  -359
  -375
  -391
  -409
  -428
  -447
  -468
  -490
  -513
  -537
  -563
  -590
  -618
  -648
  -679
New CAPEX, $m
  -248
  -25
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -54
  -58
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -67
  -242
  -254
  -263
  -273
  -284
  -295
  -308
  -321
  -335
  -349
  -365
  -382
  -399
  -417
  -436
  -457
  -478
  -500
  -524
  -550
  -576
  -604
  -633
  -664
  -696
  -730
  -766
  -803
  -843
  -884
Free cash flow, $m
  200
  -79
  167
  161
  154
  147
  141
  134
  126
  119
  111
  102
  94
  86
  77
  67
  57
  47
  36
  25
  14
  1
  -12
  -25
  -39
  -54
  -70
  -86
  -103
  -121
  -140
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -304
  -5,693
  101
  116
  130
  144
  158
  172
  186
  201
  216
  231
  246
  262
  278
  296
  313
  332
  351
  370
  391
  413
  435
  459
  483
  509
  536
  564
  594
  625
  657
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  5,837
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -353
  144
  101
  116
  130
  144
  158
  172
  186
  201
  216
  231
  246
  262
  278
  296
  313
  332
  351
  370
  391
  413
  435
  459
  483
  509
  536
  564
  594
  625
  657
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -108
  66
  268
  276
  284
  292
  299
  306
  313
  320
  327
  333
  340
  348
  355
  363
  371
  379
  387
  396
  405
  414
  424
  434
  444
  455
  466
  478
  491
  503
  517
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  131
  -5,837
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -5,771
  257
  264
  270
  276
  281
  287
  292
  298
  303
  307
  313
  318
  324
  330
  336
  342
  348
  354
  361
  368
  375
  383
  390
  398
  407
  415
  425
  434
  444
Discount rate, %
 
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -5,465
  229
  220
  210
  198
  186
  173
  159
  146
  132
  118
  104
  92
  79
  68
  58
  48
  40
  32
  26
  20
  15
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Navistar International Corporation is a holding company whose principal operating entities are Navistar, Inc. and Navistar Financial Corporation (NFC). The Company's segments include Truck, Parts, Global Operations (collectively, Manufacturing operations) and Financial Services, which consists of NFC and its foreign finance operations (collectively, Financial Services operations). The Truck segment manufactures and distributes Class 4 through 8 trucks, buses and military vehicles under the International and IC Bus brands, along with production of engines. The Parts segment supports its brands of International commercial trucks, IC buses and engines. The Global Operations segment includes operations of its subsidiary, International Industria de Motores da America do Sul Ltda. (IIAA). The Financial Services segment provides and manages retail, wholesale and lease financing of products sold by the Truck and Parts segments and their dealers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Navistar International (NAV)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -35.3
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book -0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 180.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -20%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 22.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -16.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -75.4%
Total Debt to Equity -92.6%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital 63.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -18%
Return On Equity 1.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 16%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
EBITDA Margin 6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Operating Margin 3.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.2%
Net Profit Margin -1.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.9%
Effective Tax Rate -103.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -52.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

NAV stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NAV stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8111 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Navistar International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Navistar International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NAV stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for NAV is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Navistar International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Navistar International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NAV stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NAV stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.7% for Navistar International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Navistar International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NAV stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NAV are equal to 16.6%.

Life of production assets of 6.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Navistar International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NAV is equal to 7.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-5298 million for Navistar International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 99.134 million for Navistar International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Navistar International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Navistar - Volkswagen Truck & Bus Alliance Update   [Sep-25-17 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Makers of Fuel-Guzzling Big Rigs Try to Go Green   [Sep-22-17 11:00PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Makers of Fuel-Guzzling Big Rigs Try to Go Green   [Sep-21-17 09:51AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Should You Buy Navistar International Corporation (NAV)?   [Sep-20-17 03:51PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Company News For Sep 7, 2017   [Sep-07-17 10:23AM  Zacks]
▶ Navistar beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Sep-06-17 11:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ IC Bus Launches Environmentally Friendly Grant Program   [Aug-24-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] Navistar Ordered to Pay $31 Million Over Faulty Engines   [Aug-14-17 08:41PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Company News for June 08, 2017   [09:31AM  Zacks]
▶ New Navistar line hits full production in Springfield   [Jun-07-17 11:40AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [09:51AM  Briefing.com]
Financial statements of NAV
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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