Intrinsic value of Navigators Group - NAVG

Previous Close

$58.83

  Intrinsic Value

$118.36

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+101%

Previous close

$58.83

 
Intrinsic value

$118.36

 
Up/down potential

+101%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as NAVG.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NAVG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.91
  7.80
  7.52
  7.27
  7.04
  6.84
  6.65
  6.49
  6.34
  6.21
  6.08
  5.98
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
Revenue, $m
  0
  1,291
  1,389
  1,489
  1,594
  1,703
  1,817
  1,935
  2,057
  2,185
  2,318
  2,456
  2,601
  2,751
  2,908
  3,073
  3,244
  3,423
  3,610
  3,806
  4,010
  4,225
  4,449
  4,683
  4,929
  5,187
  5,456
  5,739
  6,035
  6,346
  6,672
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,130
  1,215
  1,303
  1,395
  1,490
  1,589
  1,692
  1,800
  1,911
  2,028
  2,148
  2,274
  2,406
  2,543
  2,687
  2,837
  2,993
  3,157
  3,328
  3,507
  3,694
  3,890
  4,096
  4,311
  4,536
  4,772
  5,019
  5,278
  5,550
  5,834
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,065
  1,130
  1,215
  1,303
  1,395
  1,490
  1,589
  1,692
  1,800
  1,911
  2,028
  2,148
  2,274
  2,406
  2,543
  2,687
  2,837
  2,993
  3,157
  3,328
  3,507
  3,694
  3,890
  4,096
  4,311
  4,536
  4,772
  5,019
  5,278
  5,550
  5,834
Operating income, $m
  133
  161
  174
  186
  199
  213
  227
  242
  258
  274
  290
  308
  326
  345
  365
  386
  407
  430
  453
  478
  503
  530
  558
  588
  619
  651
  685
  720
  757
  796
  837
EBITDA, $m
  138
  162
  174
  187
  200
  214
  228
  243
  258
  274
  291
  308
  326
  345
  365
  386
  407
  430
  453
  478
  503
  530
  558
  588
  619
  651
  685
  720
  757
  796
  837
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  15
  31
  48
  65
  83
  102
  122
  142
  163
  185
  208
  232
  257
  283
  310
  339
  368
  399
  432
  466
  501
  538
  577
  617
  660
  704
  751
  800
  851
  905
Earnings before tax, $m
  118
  146
  143
  139
  134
  130
  125
  120
  115
  110
  105
  100
  94
  88
  82
  75
  68
  61
  54
  46
  38
  29
  20
  11
  1
  -9
  -19
  -31
  -42
  -54
  -67
Tax expense, $m
  35
  40
  39
  37
  36
  35
  34
  33
  31
  30
  28
  27
  25
  24
  22
  20
  18
  17
  14
  12
  10
  8
  6
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  83
  107
  104
  101
  98
  95
  91
  88
  84
  80
  77
  73
  69
  64
  60
  55
  50
  45
  39
  34
  28
  21
  15
  8
  1
  -9
  -19
  -31
  -42
  -54
  -67

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,814
  5,187
  5,577
  5,982
  6,403
  6,841
  7,296
  7,769
  8,262
  8,775
  9,308
  9,865
  10,445
  11,049
  11,681
  12,339
  13,028
  13,747
  14,498
  15,284
  16,106
  16,966
  17,866
  18,809
  19,796
  20,830
  21,913
  23,049
  24,239
  25,486
  26,794
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,814
  5,187
  5,577
  5,982
  6,403
  6,841
  7,296
  7,769
  8,262
  8,775
  9,308
  9,865
  10,445
  11,049
  11,681
  12,339
  13,028
  13,747
  14,498
  15,284
  16,106
  16,966
  17,866
  18,809
  19,796
  20,830
  21,913
  23,049
  24,239
  25,486
  26,794
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
  0.249
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  264
  544
  838
  1,144
  1,462
  1,793
  2,136
  2,494
  2,866
  3,253
  3,656
  4,076
  4,514
  4,970
  5,447
  5,944
  6,464
  7,007
  7,574
  8,167
  8,788
  9,437
  10,117
  10,829
  11,574
  12,355
  13,173
  14,030
  14,928
  15,870
  16,857
Total liabilities, $m
  3,636
  3,916
  4,210
  4,516
  4,834
  5,165
  5,508
  5,866
  6,238
  6,625
  7,028
  7,448
  7,886
  8,342
  8,819
  9,316
  9,836
  10,379
  10,946
  11,539
  12,160
  12,809
  13,489
  14,201
  14,946
  15,727
  16,545
  17,402
  18,300
  19,242
  20,229
Total equity, $m
  1,178
  1,271
  1,366
  1,466
  1,569
  1,676
  1,788
  1,903
  2,024
  2,150
  2,281
  2,417
  2,559
  2,707
  2,862
  3,023
  3,192
  3,368
  3,552
  3,745
  3,946
  4,157
  4,377
  4,608
  4,850
  5,103
  5,369
  5,647
  5,938
  6,244
  6,565
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,814
  5,187
  5,576
  5,982
  6,403
  6,841
  7,296
  7,769
  8,262
  8,775
  9,309
  9,865
  10,445
  11,049
  11,681
  12,339
  13,028
  13,747
  14,498
  15,284
  16,106
  16,966
  17,866
  18,809
  19,796
  20,830
  21,914
  23,049
  24,238
  25,486
  26,794
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.224
  0.430
  0.610
  0.780
  0.930
  1.070
  1.200
  1.310
  1.420
  1.510
  1.600
  1.690
  1.760
  1.840
  1.900
  1.970
  2.030
  2.080
  2.130
  2.180
  2.230
  2.270
  2.310
  2.350
  2.390
  2.420
  2.450
  2.480
  2.510
  2.540
  2.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245
  0.245

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  83
  107
  104
  101
  98
  95
  91
  88
  84
  80
  77
  73
  69
  64
  60
  55
  50
  45
  39
  34
  28
  21
  15
  8
  1
  -9
  -19
  -31
  -42
  -54
  -67
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  350
  107
  105
  102
  99
  95
  92
  89
  85
  81
  77
  73
  69
  64
  60
  55
  50
  45
  39
  34
  28
  21
  15
  8
  1
  -9
  -19
  -31
  -42
  -54
  -67
Change in working capital, $m
  126
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  224
  107
  105
  102
  99
  95
  92
  89
  85
  81
  77
  73
  69
  64
  60
  55
  50
  45
  39
  34
  28
  21
  15
  8
  1
  -9
  -19
  -31
  -42
  -54
  -67
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -211
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  13
  107
  105
  102
  99
  95
  92
  89
  85
  81
  77
  73
  69
  64
  60
  55
  50
  45
  39
  34
  28
  21
  15
  8
  1
  -9
  -19
  -31
  -42
  -54
  -67
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  280
  294
  306
  318
  331
  344
  357
  372
  387
  403
  420
  438
  457
  476
  497
  520
  543
  567
  593
  621
  649
  680
  712
  745
  781
  818
  857
  898
  942
  987
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  5
  12
  20
  28
  36
  45
  54
  63
  73
  84
  95
  107
  119
  132
  145
  159
  174
  189
  206
  223
  241
  262
  285
  309
  334
  360
  388
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  280
  294
  306
  323
  343
  364
  385
  408
  432
  457
  483
  511
  541
  571
  604
  639
  675
  712
  752
  795
  838
  886
  935
  986
  1,043
  1,103
  1,166
  1,232
  1,302
  1,375
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  387
  399
  408
  422
  438
  456
  474
  493
  513
  535
  556
  580
  605
  631
  659
  688
  719
  752
  786
  822
  860
  900
  943
  987
  1,034
  1,083
  1,135
  1,190
  1,247
  1,308
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -82
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -161
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -231
  -242
  -262
  -285
  -309
  -334
  -360
  -388
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  295
  304
  308
  319
  331
  344
  358
  372
  388
  404
  420
  438
  457
  476
  497
  520
  543
  567
  593
  621
  649
  680
  712
  745
  772
  799
  827
  856
  887
  920
Discount rate, %
 
  4.90
  5.15
  5.40
  5.67
  5.96
  6.25
  6.57
  6.89
  7.24
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  281
  275
  263
  256
  248
  239
  229
  218
  207
  194
  180
  167
  153
  138
  124
  110
  96
  84
  71
  60
  50
  41
  33
  26
  20
  15
  11
  8
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.8
  99.2
  98.4
  97.4
  96.1
  94.7
  93.1
  91.4
  89.6
  87.6
  85.6
  83.5
  81.3
  79.1
  76.9
  74.6
  72.3
  70.1
  67.8
  65.5
  63.3
  61.1
  58.8
  56.6
  54.5
  52.3
  50.2

The Navigators Group, Inc. is an insurance holding company. The Company is an international insurance company focused on marine insurance. The Company's segments include U.S. Insurance, International Insurance (Int'l Insurance), Global Reinsurance (GlobalRe) and Corporate. The Company's Property and Casualty (P&C) insurance business primarily offers general liability coverage, and umbrella and excess liability coverage to commercial enterprises through its U.S. Insurance and Int'l Insurance segments. It also offers reinsurance products through its GlobalRe segment. It distributes its products through international, national and regional, retail and wholesale insurance brokers. The Company's U.S. Insurance and Int'l Insurance segments consists of three segments, such as Marine, Property and Casualty (P&C) and Professional Liability. Its GlobalRe products include accident & health (A&H), marine, P&C and professional liability.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Navigators Group (NAVG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.6
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -16.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 22.4%
Total Debt to Equity 22.4%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Total Capital 5.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Return On Equity 7.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 11.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Operating Margin 11.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Net Profit Margin 6.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Effective Tax Rate 29.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31%
Payout Ratio 4.8%

NAVG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NAVG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1198 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Navigators Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Navigators Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NAVG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.9%, whose default value for NAVG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Navigators Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Navigators Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NAVG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NAVG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.7% for Navigators Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Navigators Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NAVG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NAVG are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 1.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Navigators Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NAVG is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1178 million for Navigators Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.577 million for Navigators Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Navigators Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Navigators Hires Jim Rhyner to Run Navigators Pro   [Aug-15-17 09:20AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Navigators Promotes Pat Milner to President of NavTech   [Aug-10-17 04:02PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Navigators Reports Second Quarter 2017 Earnings   [Aug-03-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Navigators Announces Second Quarter 2017 Dividend   [May-25-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Navigators posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 07:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for March 14th   [Mar-14-17 10:45AM  Zacks]
▶ Navigators posts 4Q profit   [Feb-16-17 04:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Navigators Appoints Jacob Ingerslev as Global Cyber Leader   [Feb-01-17 09:02AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Navigators Appoints Asia Leadership Team   [Jan-04-17 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Navigators Names Meryl D. Hartzband to Board of Directors   [Dec-07-16 04:14PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Navigators Group's board OKs stock split   [Dec-06-16 04:25PM  at MarketWatch]
▶ Navigators Announces Two-for-One Stock Split   [04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Navigators Reports Third Quarter 2016 Earnings   [Nov-03-16 05:23PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Navigators Announces Global Claims Leadership   [Aug-25-16 11:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of NAVG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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