Intrinsic value of Navigant Consulting - NCI

Previous Close

$20.19

  Intrinsic Value

$37.82

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+87%

  Value-price divergence*

+31%

Previous close

$20.19

 
Intrinsic value

$37.82

 
Up/down potential

+87%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+31%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NCI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.51
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.01
Revenue, $m
  1,034
  1,089
  1,146
  1,206
  1,269
  1,335
  1,404
  1,477
  1,553
  1,632
  1,716
  1,803
  1,895
  1,992
  2,093
  2,199
  2,310
  2,427
  2,550
  2,678
  2,813
  2,955
  3,104
  3,260
  3,424
  3,596
  3,776
  3,966
  4,165
  4,373
  4,593
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  976
  1,024
  1,074
  1,127
  1,182
  1,240
  1,301
  1,365
  1,431
  1,501
  1,512
  1,589
  1,670
  1,755
  1,844
  1,937
  2,035
  2,138
  2,246
  2,359
  2,478
  2,603
  2,733
  2,871
  3,015
  3,166
  3,325
  3,492
  3,667
  3,851
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  938
  976
  1,024
  1,074
  1,127
  1,182
  1,240
  1,301
  1,365
  1,431
  1,501
  1,512
  1,589
  1,670
  1,755
  1,844
  1,937
  2,035
  2,138
  2,246
  2,359
  2,478
  2,603
  2,733
  2,871
  3,015
  3,166
  3,325
  3,492
  3,667
  3,851
Operating income, $m
  97
  113
  123
  132
  142
  153
  164
  176
  188
  201
  215
  291
  306
  322
  338
  355
  373
  392
  412
  432
  454
  477
  501
  526
  553
  580
  610
  640
  672
  706
  741
EBITDA, $m
  137
  182
  192
  202
  213
  224
  235
  247
  260
  273
  287
  302
  317
  334
  350
  368
  387
  406
  427
  448
  471
  495
  520
  546
  573
  602
  632
  664
  697
  732
  769
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
Earnings before tax, $m
  93
  109
  117
  126
  135
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  201
  277
  290
  305
  320
  335
  352
  369
  387
  406
  426
  447
  469
  492
  516
  542
  568
  596
  626
  657
  689
Tax expense, $m
  35
  29
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  75
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
Net income, $m
  58
  79
  85
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  138
  147
  202
  212
  222
  233
  245
  257
  269
  283
  296
  311
  326
  342
  359
  377
  395
  415
  435
  457
  479
  503

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,055
  1,102
  1,160
  1,221
  1,285
  1,351
  1,421
  1,495
  1,572
  1,652
  1,737
  1,825
  1,918
  2,016
  2,118
  2,226
  2,338
  2,456
  2,581
  2,711
  2,847
  2,991
  3,141
  3,299
  3,465
  3,639
  3,822
  4,014
  4,215
  4,427
  4,649
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,047
  1,102
  1,160
  1,221
  1,285
  1,351
  1,421
  1,495
  1,572
  1,652
  1,737
  1,825
  1,918
  2,016
  2,118
  2,226
  2,338
  2,456
  2,581
  2,711
  2,847
  2,991
  3,141
  3,299
  3,465
  3,639
  3,822
  4,014
  4,215
  4,427
  4,649
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
  0.988
Average production assets, $m
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
  172
  181
  190
  200
  210
  221
  232
  244
  256
  269
  283
  297
  312
  328
  344
  362
  380
  399
  419
  440
  462
  485
  510
Working capital, $m
  125
  123
  130
  136
  143
  151
  159
  167
  175
  184
  194
  204
  214
  225
  236
  248
  261
  274
  288
  303
  318
  334
  351
  368
  387
  406
  427
  448
  471
  494
  519
Total debt, $m
  135
  157
  180
  205
  230
  257
  285
  315
  346
  378
  412
  448
  485
  524
  566
  609
  654
  702
  751
  804
  859
  916
  977
  1,040
  1,107
  1,177
  1,250
  1,328
  1,408
  1,493
  1,583
Total liabilities, $m
  420
  443
  466
  491
  516
  543
  571
  601
  632
  664
  698
  734
  771
  810
  852
  895
  940
  988
  1,037
  1,090
  1,145
  1,202
  1,263
  1,326
  1,393
  1,463
  1,536
  1,614
  1,694
  1,779
  1,869
Total equity, $m
  634
  659
  694
  730
  768
  808
  850
  894
  940
  988
  1,039
  1,092
  1,147
  1,206
  1,267
  1,331
  1,398
  1,469
  1,543
  1,621
  1,703
  1,788
  1,878
  1,973
  2,072
  2,176
  2,286
  2,400
  2,521
  2,647
  2,780
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,054
  1,102
  1,160
  1,221
  1,284
  1,351
  1,421
  1,495
  1,572
  1,652
  1,737
  1,826
  1,918
  2,016
  2,119
  2,226
  2,338
  2,457
  2,580
  2,711
  2,848
  2,990
  3,141
  3,299
  3,465
  3,639
  3,822
  4,014
  4,215
  4,426
  4,649
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.213
  0.240
  0.260
  0.280
  0.300
  0.320
  0.340
  0.350
  0.370
  0.380
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598
  0.598

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  58
  79
  85
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  138
  147
  202
  212
  222
  233
  245
  257
  269
  283
  296
  311
  326
  342
  359
  377
  395
  415
  435
  457
  479
  503
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  40
  69
  69
  70
  70
  71
  71
  71
  72
  72
  73
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
Funds from operations, $m
  102
  148
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  213
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
  284
  298
  313
  328
  344
  361
  379
  397
  417
  438
  459
  482
  506
  531
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
Cash from operations, $m
  110
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  193
  201
  210
  203
  213
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
  284
  298
  313
  328
  344
  361
  379
  398
  417
  438
  459
  482
  506
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
New CAPEX, $m
  -29
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -52
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
Free cash flow, $m
  58
  130
  135
  141
  148
  154
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  183
  192
  201
  211
  222
  232
  244
  256
  268
  282
  295
  310
  325
  341
  358
  376
  394
  414
  434
  455
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -34
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -59
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  225
  219
  229
  241
  252
  265
  278
  291
  306
  321
  337
  353
  370
  389
  408
  428
  449
  471
  494
  519
  545
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -40
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -133
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  127
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  166
  174
  182
  191
  201
  210
  221
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  294
  309
  324
  340
  356
  374
  392
  412
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  121
  114
  113
  111
  109
  107
  104
  100
  96
  92
  79
  74
  69
  64
  59
  53
  48
  43
  37
  32
  28
  23
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Navigant Consulting, Inc. provides professional services to corporate executives and senior management, corporate counsel, law firms, corporate boards, special committees, and governmental agencies worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Healthcare; Energy; Financial Services Advisory and Compliance; and Disputes, Forensics & Legal Technology. The Healthcare segment provides consulting and business process management services to healthcare providers, payers, and life sciences companies. This segment helps clients respond to market legislative changes, such as the shift to an outcome and value-based reimbursements model, ongoing industry consolidation and reorganization, Medicaid expansion, and the implementation of a new electronic health records system. The Energy segment offers advisory services to utilities, governmental agencies, manufacturers, and investors. This segment provides its clients with advisory solutions in business strategy and planning, distributed energy resources and renewables, energy efficiency and demand response, and grid modernization, as well as various benchmarking and research services. The Financial Services Advisory and Compliance segment provides strategic, operational, valuation, risk management, investigative, and compliance advisory services to clients primarily in the financial services industry, including major financial and insurance institutions. This segment also offers anti-corruption solutions and anti-money laundering, litigation support, and tax compliance and valuation services. The Disputes, Forensics & Legal Technology segment offers professional services, including accounting, regulatory, construction, and computer forensic services, as well as valuation and economic analysis. Navigant Consulting, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Navigant Consulting (NCI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.4
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -27.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 21.3%
Total Debt to Equity 21.3%
Interest Coverage 24
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Return On Total Capital 7.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Equity 9.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29%
EBITDA Margin 13.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Operating Margin 9.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Net Profit Margin 5.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Effective Tax Rate 37.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Payout Ratio 0%

NCI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NCI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1034 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Navigant Consulting. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Navigant Consulting. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NCI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NCI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Navigant Consulting, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Navigant Consulting.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NCI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NCI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Navigant Consulting.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Navigant Consulting. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NCI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NCI are equal to 11.1%.

Life of production assets of 18.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Navigant Consulting operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NCI is equal to 11.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $634 million for Navigant Consulting - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 46.55 million for Navigant Consulting is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Navigant Consulting at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Navigant Consulting Stock Sank 10% Today   [May-03-17 04:35PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Navigant beats 1Q profit forecasts   [07:26AM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] New questions for Goldman-backed oil venture   [Apr-23-17 07:14AM  Financial Times]
▶ NCI seeks to recover $19M from alleged embezzler, CEO says in earnings call   [Apr-10-17 01:55PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ James Mapes to Lead Navigant Cymetrix   [Mar-08-17 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Navigant Announces Managing Director Promotions   [Dec-21-16 09:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ With Self-Driving Cars, We're All Cartographers   [Dec-19-16 01:13PM  at Forbes]
▶ Is Navigant Consulting, Inc. (NCI) Worthy of Your Portfolio?   [Dec-15-16 09:56AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ US Wind Generation Sets New Records Throughout 2016   [Dec-08-16 04:55PM  at Forbes]
▶ The Apple Car Was Always A Longshot   [Oct-19-16 09:15AM  at Forbes]
Stock chart of NCI Financial statements of NCI Annual reports of NCI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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