Intrinsic value of NCI - NCIT

Previous Close

$20.00

  Intrinsic Value

$16.04

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-20%

  Value-price divergence*

+149%

Previous close

$20.00

 
Intrinsic value

$16.04

 
Up/down potential

-20%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+149%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NCIT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.30
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  322
  328
  336
  345
  354
  365
  377
  390
  404
  419
  435
  452
  470
  490
  510
  532
  556
  580
  607
  634
  663
  694
  726
  761
  797
  835
  875
  917
  961
  1,007
  1,056
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  180
  184
  188
  193
  199
  206
  212
  220
  228
  237
  242
  252
  263
  274
  286
  298
  311
  325
  340
  356
  372
  390
  408
  427
  448
  469
  492
  515
  540
  567
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  136
  140
  143
  147
  150
  154
  158
  162
  166
  170
  175
  179
  183
  188
  193
  197
  202
  207
  213
  218
  223
  229
  235
  241
  247
  253
  259
  266
  272
  279
Total operating expenses, $m
  306
  316
  324
  331
  340
  349
  360
  370
  382
  394
  407
  417
  431
  446
  462
  479
  495
  513
  532
  553
  574
  595
  619
  643
  668
  695
  722
  751
  781
  812
  846
Operating income, $m
  17
  13
  13
  13
  14
  15
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  35
  39
  44
  49
  54
  60
  67
  74
  81
  90
  98
  108
  118
  129
  140
  153
  166
  180
  195
  211
EBITDA, $m
  24
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  43
  47
  53
  58
  64
  71
  78
  86
  95
  104
  113
  124
  135
  147
  159
  173
  187
  202
  219
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
Earnings before tax, $m
  16
  13
  13
  13
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  27
  34
  38
  43
  48
  53
  59
  66
  73
  80
  88
  97
  106
  116
  127
  138
  150
  163
  177
  192
  208
Tax expense, $m
  7
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
Net income, $m
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  25
  28
  31
  35
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  64
  71
  77
  85
  93
  101
  110
  119
  129
  140
  152

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  155
  157
  161
  165
  169
  175
  180
  186
  193
  200
  208
  216
  225
  234
  244
  255
  266
  278
  290
  303
  317
  332
  347
  364
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  482
  505
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  154
  157
  161
  165
  169
  175
  180
  186
  193
  200
  208
  216
  225
  234
  244
  255
  266
  278
  290
  303
  317
  332
  347
  364
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  482
  505
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.091
  2.089
  2.087
  2.091
  2.095
  2.086
  2.094
  2.097
  2.093
  2.095
  2.091
  2.093
  2.089
  2.094
  2.090
  2.086
  2.090
  2.086
  2.093
  2.092
  2.091
  2.090
  2.092
  2.091
  2.092
  2.093
  2.093
  2.094
  2.094
  2.089
  2.091
Average production assets, $m
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  45
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
Working capital, $m
  17
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
Total debt, $m
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  70
  76
  81
  87
  93
Total liabilities, $m
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
Total equity, $m
  114
  115
  118
  121
  124
  128
  132
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  337
  354
  371
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  155
  157
  161
  165
  169
  174
  180
  187
  193
  200
  208
  216
  225
  234
  244
  255
  266
  278
  290
  304
  317
  332
  347
  364
  381
  399
  418
  439
  459
  482
  505
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734
  0.734

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  25
  28
  31
  35
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  64
  71
  77
  85
  93
  101
  110
  119
  129
  140
  152
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Funds from operations, $m
  18
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  58
  63
  69
  76
  83
  90
  99
  107
  116
  126
  137
  148
  159
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  16
  15
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  56
  62
  68
  74
  81
  89
  97
  105
  114
  124
  134
  145
  157
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -12
Free cash flow, $m
  13
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  22
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  41
  45
  50
  55
  61
  67
  74
  81
  88
  96
  105
  114
  124
  135
  146
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -10
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -11
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  21
  24
  25
  28
  32
  35
  39
  43
  48
  53
  59
  65
  71
  78
  85
  93
  101
  110
  120
  130
  141
  152
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -7
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  11
  10
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  40
  44
  49
  54
  60
  66
  73
  80
  88
  96
  105
  114
  124
  135
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  11
  9
  9
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  8
  8
  7
  6
  6
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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NCI, Inc. provides information technology (IT) and professional services and solutions to defense, intelligence, healthcare, and civilian government agencies worldwide. The company offers cloud computing and IT infrastructure optimization services; and cyber security and information assurance services, including policy and planning, compliance, identity and access management, training, education, awareness, and enterprise security operations. It also provides engineering and logistics support services, such as Department of Defense weapons systems lifecycle support efforts in diminishing manufacturing sources and material shortages analysis, and engineering solutions in support of modernization and technology insertion, as well as solutions to mitigating weapons system obsolescence. In addition, the company offers enterprise information management and advanced analytics services that support relevant discovery, anticipatory intelligence, focused analysis, and persistent surveillance across various customer domains and operational disciplines. Further, it provides health IT and medical support services, which include cyber security/information assurance, Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act and Federal Information Security Management Act compliance, data analysis/management, and case management to support healthcare benefit programs and enhance the quality of healthcare services provided by health and medical personnel. Additionally, the company offers IT service management services, including design, installation, and management of complex mission-critical enterprise systems for its customers, as well as management and IT enterprise network services; provides modeling, simulation, training, and exercise support; and operates, maintains, and enhances the IT application portfolio. NCI, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  NCI (NCIT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 30.2
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Total Capital 7.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Return On Equity 8.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
EBITDA Margin 7.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Operating Margin 5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Net Profit Margin 2.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Effective Tax Rate 43.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.2%
Payout Ratio 22.2%

NCIT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NCIT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $322 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by NCI. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of NCI. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NCIT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NCIT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of NCI, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of NCI.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NCIT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 54.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $133 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NCIT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for NCI.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for NCI. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NCIT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NCIT are equal to 7.5%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in NCI operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NCIT is equal to 5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $114 million for NCI - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13.222 million for NCI is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of NCI at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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SAIC Science Applic 71.81 69.41  hold
EGOV NIC 15.85 21.68  hold
CSRA CSRA 32.14 16.91  sell
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NOC Northrop Grumm 269.99 368.54  buy

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Private equity group completes NCI purchase   [Aug-16-17 01:19PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Health IT and Cybersecurity Expert Joins NCI   [Jul-24-17 08:05AM  Business Wire]
▶ Harwood Feffer LLP Announces Investigation of NCI, Inc.   [Jul-10-17 07:48PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Private equity group to buy NCI   [Jul-03-17 12:51PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [11:35AM  Briefing.com]
▶ NCI to Be Acquired by H.I.G. Capital, LLC   [08:05AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to NCI, Inc. : June 27, 2017   [Jun-27-17 03:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ NCI's 'rebuilding year' picks up steam   [May-11-17 02:15PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ NCI reports 1Q loss   [May-09-17 06:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ NCI's CEO has changed, but its M&A strategy hasn't. It's hungry for deals.   [Apr-12-17 04:28PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ NCI seeks to recover $19M from alleged embezzler, CEO says in earnings call   [Apr-10-17 04:12PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ETFs with exposure to NCI, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ NCI misses 4Q revenue forecasts   [Mar-31-17 05:50PM  Associated Press]
▶ Nasdaq threatens Reston contractor with delisting   [Mar-27-17 03:30PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Nasdaq threatens Reston contractor with delisting   [03:30PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ NCI Announces Filing of Form 12b-25   [Mar-16-17 09:15AM  Business Wire]
▶ NCI accuses employee of embezzling millions   [10:49AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ NCI Announces Internal Investigation   [08:05AM  Business Wire]
▶ NCI Wins $43M Agile Development Task Order to Support USCIS   [Dec-13-16 08:05AM  Business Wire]
▶ NCI Awarded $10 Million New Task Order from U.S. Army   [Nov-08-16 08:05AM  Business Wire]
▶ NCI makes abrupt change at the top   [Nov-01-16 01:25PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ NCI Announces CEO Transition   [09:20AM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of NCIT Financial statements of NCIT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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