Intrinsic value of NCI Building Systems - NCS

Previous Close

$15.75

  Intrinsic Value

$37.08

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+135%

  Value-price divergence*

-9%

Previous close

$15.75

 
Intrinsic value

$37.08

 
Up/down potential

+135%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-9%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NCS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.74
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.36
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
Revenue, $m
  1,685
  1,815
  1,950
  2,090
  2,235
  2,387
  2,544
  2,708
  2,878
  3,055
  3,240
  3,433
  3,633
  3,843
  4,061
  4,290
  4,528
  4,777
  5,037
  5,309
  5,594
  5,892
  6,204
  6,531
  6,873
  7,232
  7,607
  8,001
  8,414
  8,846
  9,300
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,004
  1,078
  1,154
  1,233
  1,316
  1,402
  1,491
  1,584
  1,680
  1,781
  1,870
  1,980
  2,094
  2,213
  2,337
  2,467
  2,603
  2,745
  2,893
  3,048
  3,211
  3,381
  3,559
  3,745
  3,940
  4,145
  4,359
  4,584
  4,820
  5,067
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  673
  690
  708
  725
  743
  762
  781
  800
  821
  841
  862
  884
  906
  928
  952
  975
  1,000
  1,025
  1,050
  1,077
  1,103
  1,131
  1,159
  1,188
  1,218
  1,248
  1,280
  1,312
  1,344
  1,378
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,574
  1,677
  1,768
  1,862
  1,958
  2,059
  2,164
  2,272
  2,384
  2,501
  2,622
  2,732
  2,864
  3,000
  3,141
  3,289
  3,442
  3,603
  3,770
  3,943
  4,125
  4,314
  4,512
  4,718
  4,933
  5,158
  5,393
  5,639
  5,896
  6,164
  6,445
Operating income, $m
  111
  137
  182
  228
  277
  328
  381
  436
  494
  555
  618
  700
  770
  843
  920
  1,001
  1,085
  1,174
  1,268
  1,366
  1,470
  1,578
  1,693
  1,813
  1,940
  2,073
  2,214
  2,362
  2,518
  2,682
  2,855
EBITDA, $m
  153
  182
  228
  277
  328
  381
  437
  495
  555
  619
  685
  755
  828
  905
  985
  1,069
  1,158
  1,251
  1,348
  1,451
  1,559
  1,672
  1,792
  1,917
  2,050
  2,189
  2,335
  2,490
  2,652
  2,823
  3,003
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  63
  68
  74
  80
  86
  93
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  185
  196
  208
  220
  232
  245
Earnings before tax, $m
  79
  111
  151
  194
  238
  284
  333
  383
  436
  492
  550
  626
  690
  757
  828
  902
  979
  1,061
  1,147
  1,237
  1,332
  1,432
  1,538
  1,649
  1,765
  1,888
  2,018
  2,154
  2,298
  2,450
  2,609
Tax expense, $m
  28
  30
  41
  52
  64
  77
  90
  103
  118
  133
  148
  169
  186
  204
  223
  243
  264
  286
  310
  334
  360
  387
  415
  445
  477
  510
  545
  582
  620
  661
  704
Net income, $m
  51
  81
  110
  141
  174
  207
  243
  280
  318
  359
  401
  457
  504
  553
  604
  658
  715
  775
  837
  903
  973
  1,046
  1,122
  1,203
  1,289
  1,378
  1,473
  1,573
  1,678
  1,788
  1,905

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  71
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,050
  1,054
  1,133
  1,214
  1,299
  1,387
  1,478
  1,573
  1,672
  1,775
  1,883
  1,995
  2,111
  2,233
  2,360
  2,492
  2,631
  2,776
  2,927
  3,085
  3,251
  3,424
  3,605
  3,795
  3,994
  4,202
  4,420
  4,649
  4,889
  5,140
  5,404
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  979
  1,054
  1,133
  1,214
  1,299
  1,387
  1,478
  1,573
  1,672
  1,775
  1,883
  1,995
  2,111
  2,233
  2,360
  2,492
  2,631
  2,776
  2,927
  3,085
  3,251
  3,424
  3,605
  3,795
  3,994
  4,202
  4,420
  4,649
  4,889
  5,140
  5,404
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.721
  1.722
  1.721
  1.722
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.722
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.722
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
  1.721
Average production assets, $m
  281
  301
  324
  347
  371
  396
  422
  449
  478
  507
  538
  570
  603
  638
  674
  712
  752
  793
  836
  881
  929
  978
  1,030
  1,084
  1,141
  1,200
  1,263
  1,328
  1,397
  1,468
  1,544
Working capital, $m
  178
  116
  125
  134
  143
  153
  163
  173
  184
  196
  207
  220
  233
  246
  260
  275
  290
  306
  322
  340
  358
  377
  397
  418
  440
  463
  487
  512
  538
  566
  595
Total debt, $m
  397
  456
  517
  581
  648
  717
  788
  863
  941
  1,022
  1,106
  1,194
  1,285
  1,381
  1,481
  1,585
  1,693
  1,807
  1,926
  2,050
  2,180
  2,316
  2,458
  2,607
  2,763
  2,927
  3,098
  3,278
  3,466
  3,663
  3,870
Total liabilities, $m
  769
  828
  889
  953
  1,020
  1,089
  1,160
  1,235
  1,313
  1,394
  1,478
  1,566
  1,657
  1,753
  1,853
  1,957
  2,065
  2,179
  2,298
  2,422
  2,552
  2,688
  2,830
  2,979
  3,135
  3,299
  3,470
  3,650
  3,838
  4,035
  4,242
Total equity, $m
  281
  227
  244
  261
  279
  298
  318
  338
  360
  382
  405
  429
  454
  480
  507
  536
  566
  597
  629
  663
  699
  736
  775
  816
  859
  903
  950
  1,000
  1,051
  1,105
  1,162
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,050
  1,055
  1,133
  1,214
  1,299
  1,387
  1,478
  1,573
  1,673
  1,776
  1,883
  1,995
  2,111
  2,233
  2,360
  2,493
  2,631
  2,776
  2,927
  3,085
  3,251
  3,424
  3,605
  3,795
  3,994
  4,202
  4,420
  4,650
  4,889
  5,140
  5,404
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.413
  2.010
  2.120
  2.230
  2.320
  2.400
  2.480
  2.550
  2.620
  2.680
  2.730
  2.780
  2.830
  2.880
  2.920
  2.960
  2.990
  3.030
  3.060
  3.090
  3.120
  3.150
  3.170
  3.200
  3.220
  3.240
  3.260
  3.280
  3.300
  3.310
  3.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  51
  81
  110
  141
  174
  207
  243
  280
  318
  359
  401
  457
  504
  553
  604
  658
  715
  775
  837
  903
  973
  1,046
  1,122
  1,203
  1,289
  1,378
  1,473
  1,573
  1,678
  1,788
  1,905
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  128
  134
  141
  148
Funds from operations, $m
  32
  125
  157
  190
  225
  261
  299
  338
  380
  423
  469
  512
  562
  614
  669
  727
  787
  851
  918
  988
  1,062
  1,140
  1,222
  1,308
  1,398
  1,494
  1,594
  1,700
  1,812
  1,929
  2,053
Change in working capital, $m
  -37
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
Cash from operations, $m
  69
  117
  148
  181
  215
  251
  289
  328
  369
  412
  457
  500
  549
  601
  655
  712
  772
  835
  901
  971
  1,044
  1,121
  1,202
  1,287
  1,377
  1,471
  1,570
  1,675
  1,786
  1,902
  2,024
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -141
New CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -10
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -216
Free cash flow, $m
  59
  69
  97
  127
  158
  190
  224
  260
  297
  336
  377
  416
  461
  508
  557
  609
  664
  721
  781
  845
  912
  982
  1,056
  1,134
  1,215
  1,302
  1,393
  1,488
  1,589
  1,696
  1,808
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -41
  59
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  171
  180
  188
  197
  207
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -93
  59
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  171
  180
  188
  197
  207
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -34
  128
  158
  191
  224
  259
  296
  335
  375
  417
  462
  504
  552
  603
  657
  713
  773
  835
  900
  969
  1,042
  1,118
  1,198
  1,283
  1,372
  1,465
  1,564
  1,668
  1,778
  1,893
  2,015
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -9
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  71
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  182
  142
  173
  206
  241
  277
  314
  354
  395
  438
  480
  527
  577
  630
  685
  743
  804
  868
  935
  1,006
  1,081
  1,159
  1,242
  1,329
  1,420
  1,517
  1,619
  1,726
  1,839
  1,958
Discount rate, %
 
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  170
  123
  139
  152
  161
  167
  169
  169
  165
  159
  149
  138
  126
  114
  100
  87
  74
  62
  50
  40
  32
  24
  18
  13
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

NCI Building Systems, Inc. is a manufacturer and marketer of metal products in North America. The Company's operating segments include Engineered building systems, Metal components and Metal coil coating. The Engineered building systems segment is engaged in the manufacturing of main frames and long bay systems, and engineering and drafting. The Metal components segment's products include metal roof and wall panels, doors, metal partitions, metal trim, insulated metal panel (IMP) products and other related accessories. The Company manufactures and distributes a range of metal products for the non-residential construction market. It operates in the United States, Mexico, Canada and China. The Company provides metal coil coating services, and designs, engineers, manufactures and markets metal components and engineered building systems. It also provides metal coil coating services for commercial and construction applications, servicing both internal and external customers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  NCI Building Systems (NCS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.9
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 141.3%
Total Debt to Equity 141.3%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Total Capital 7.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Equity 18.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.5%
EBITDA Margin 8.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Operating Margin 6.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Net Profit Margin 3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Effective Tax Rate 35.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

NCS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NCS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1685 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by NCI Building Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of NCI Building Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NCS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for NCS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of NCI Building Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of NCI Building Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NCS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 55.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $657 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NCS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.7% for NCI Building Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for NCI Building Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NCS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NCS are equal to 16.6%.

Life of production assets of 10.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in NCI Building Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NCS is equal to 6.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $281 million for NCI Building Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 70.871 million for NCI Building Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of NCI Building Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ NCI Building Systems Announces Board Succession Plan   [Sep-29-17 12:38PM  PR Newswire]
▶ NCI Building Systems to Attend Two Investor Conferences   [Sep-11-17 04:36PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Why NCI Building Systems Inc's Shares Plunged 22% Today   [Sep-07-17 02:37PM  Motley Fool]
▶ NCI Building posts 3Q profit   [Sep-06-17 11:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ NCI Building posts 2Q profit   [04:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ 5 Stocks Set to Pop on New Analyst Coverage   [Apr-28-17 09:09AM  Zacks]
▶ NCI Building posts 1Q profit   [04:29PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of NCS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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