Intrinsic value of Neogen - NEOG

Previous Close

$72.93

  Intrinsic Value

$18.51

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-75%

  Value-price divergence*

+20%

Previous close

$72.93

 
Intrinsic value

$18.51

 
Up/down potential

-75%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+20%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NEOG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.77
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  362
  398
  436
  475
  517
  559
  604
  650
  698
  748
  800
  854
  910
  968
  1,029
  1,092
  1,158
  1,227
  1,298
  1,373
  1,451
  1,532
  1,617
  1,706
  1,799
  1,896
  1,998
  2,104
  2,215
  2,332
  2,454
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  310
  339
  369
  399
  432
  465
  500
  536
  574
  613
  643
  685
  729
  775
  823
  872
  924
  978
  1,034
  1,093
  1,154
  1,218
  1,285
  1,355
  1,428
  1,504
  1,584
  1,668
  1,756
  1,848
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
Total operating expenses, $m
  297
  324
  354
  384
  414
  448
  481
  517
  553
  591
  631
  661
  704
  748
  795
  843
  893
  945
  1,000
  1,056
  1,116
  1,178
  1,242
  1,310
  1,380
  1,454
  1,531
  1,611
  1,696
  1,785
  1,877
Operating income, $m
  65
  74
  82
  92
  102
  112
  122
  133
  145
  157
  169
  193
  206
  220
  234
  250
  265
  282
  299
  317
  335
  355
  375
  397
  419
  442
  467
  492
  519
  547
  577
EBITDA, $m
  80
  93
  103
  113
  124
  135
  147
  159
  172
  185
  198
  212
  227
  242
  258
  275
  292
  310
  329
  349
  369
  390
  413
  436
  461
  486
  513
  541
  571
  601
  634
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
Earnings before tax, $m
  67
  74
  82
  91
  101
  111
  121
  132
  143
  155
  167
  190
  203
  217
  231
  246
  261
  277
  294
  312
  330
  349
  369
  390
  412
  435
  459
  484
  510
  537
  566
Tax expense, $m
  23
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  51
  55
  59
  62
  66
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
Net income, $m
  44
  54
  60
  67
  74
  81
  89
  96
  105
  113
  122
  139
  148
  158
  169
  180
  191
  203
  215
  228
  241
  255
  269
  285
  301
  317
  335
  353
  372
  392
  413

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  144
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  528
  422
  462
  504
  548
  593
  640
  689
  740
  793
  848
  906
  965
  1,027
  1,091
  1,158
  1,228
  1,301
  1,377
  1,456
  1,539
  1,625
  1,715
  1,809
  1,908
  2,011
  2,119
  2,231
  2,349
  2,473
  2,602
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  384
  422
  462
  504
  548
  593
  640
  689
  740
  793
  848
  906
  965
  1,027
  1,091
  1,158
  1,228
  1,301
  1,377
  1,456
  1,539
  1,625
  1,715
  1,809
  1,908
  2,011
  2,119
  2,231
  2,349
  2,473
  2,602
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.943
  0.943
  0.944
  0.942
  0.943
  0.943
  0.944
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
  0.943
Average production assets, $m
  123
  135
  147
  161
  175
  189
  204
  220
  236
  253
  270
  289
  308
  327
  348
  369
  391
  415
  439
  464
  490
  518
  547
  577
  608
  641
  675
  711
  749
  788
  829
Working capital, $m
  257
  124
  136
  148
  161
  175
  188
  203
  218
  233
  250
  266
  284
  302
  321
  341
  361
  383
  405
  428
  453
  478
  505
  532
  561
  592
  623
  656
  691
  728
  766
Total debt, $m
  0
  6
  12
  18
  24
  31
  37
  45
  52
  60
  68
  76
  85
  94
  103
  113
  123
  134
  145
  157
  169
  181
  194
  208
  223
  238
  253
  270
  287
  305
  324
Total liabilities, $m
  57
  62
  68
  74
  80
  87
  93
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  159
  169
  179
  190
  201
  213
  225
  237
  250
  264
  279
  294
  309
  326
  343
  361
  380
Total equity, $m
  472
  361
  395
  431
  468
  507
  547
  589
  632
  677
  724
  773
  824
  877
  932
  989
  1,049
  1,111
  1,176
  1,243
  1,314
  1,388
  1,465
  1,545
  1,629
  1,717
  1,809
  1,906
  2,006
  2,112
  2,223
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  529
  423
  463
  505
  548
  594
  640
  690
  740
  793
  848
  905
  965
  1,027
  1,091
  1,158
  1,228
  1,301
  1,377
  1,456
  1,539
  1,625
  1,715
  1,809
  1,908
  2,011
  2,118
  2,232
  2,349
  2,473
  2,603
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854
  0.854

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  44
  54
  60
  67
  74
  81
  89
  96
  105
  113
  122
  139
  148
  158
  169
  180
  191
  203
  215
  228
  241
  255
  269
  285
  301
  317
  335
  353
  372
  392
  413
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
Funds from operations, $m
  61
  73
  81
  88
  96
  104
  113
  122
  131
  141
  151
  159
  169
  181
  193
  205
  218
  231
  245
  259
  274
  290
  307
  324
  342
  361
  381
  402
  423
  446
  470
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
Cash from operations, $m
  60
  62
  69
  76
  83
  91
  99
  108
  116
  125
  135
  142
  152
  163
  174
  185
  197
  209
  222
  236
  250
  265
  280
  296
  313
  331
  349
  369
  389
  410
  432
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -62
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -90
  -95
Free cash flow, $m
  -2
  42
  47
  53
  58
  65
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  105
  113
  122
  131
  140
  149
  159
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  242
  256
  271
  286
  302
  319
  337
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  25
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  22
  47
  53
  59
  65
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  108
  113
  122
  131
  140
  150
  160
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  243
  257
  271
  287
  303
  320
  337
  356
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -68
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  144
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  159
  18
  23
  28
  33
  38
  43
  49
  55
  61
  65
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  108
  116
  125
  134
  143
  152
  162
  173
  183
  195
  207
  219
  232
  245
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  152
  17
  20
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  32
  32
  31
  30
  30
  29
  27
  25
  23
  21
  19
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Neogen Corporation develops, manufactures and markets a range of products and services dedicated to food and animal safety. The Company operates through two segments: Food Safety and Animal Safety. The Food Safety segment produces and markets diagnostic test kits and related products used by food producers and processors to detect harmful natural toxins, foodborne bacteria, allergens and levels of general sanitation. The Animal Safety segment is primarily engaged in the production and marketing of products dedicated to animal health, including a range of consumable products marketed to veterinarians and animal health product distributors. The Animal Safety segment also provides genetic identification services. Additionally, the Animal Safety segment produces and markets rodenticides, disinfectants and insecticides to assist in the control of rodents and disease in and around agricultural, food production and other facilities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Neogen (NEOG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 63.3
Price to Sales 7.7
Price to Book 5.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 46.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 61.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 7.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Return On Total Capital 10%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Return On Equity 10%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 47.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.2%
EBITDA Margin 22.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.1%
Operating Margin 18%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Net Profit Margin 12.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.9%
Effective Tax Rate 34.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

NEOG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NEOG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $362 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Neogen. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Neogen. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NEOG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NEOG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Neogen, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Neogen.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NEOG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $14 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NEOG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Neogen.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Neogen. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NEOG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NEOG are equal to 33.8%.

Life of production assets of 14.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Neogen operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NEOG is equal to 31.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $472 million for Neogen - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.698 million for Neogen is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Neogen at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Neogen Corp. : September 22, 2017   [Sep-22-17 11:15AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Neogen announces management change   [08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Neogen beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Sep-19-17 11:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ Neogen reports 21% net income increase   [08:45AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Neogen Corp. : August 15, 2017   [Aug-15-17 04:40PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Neogen meets 4Q profit forecasts   [Jul-18-17 07:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ Neogen names new CEO   [08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Neogen develops fastest Listeria test with no enrichment   [Jul-10-17 08:45AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Neogen Corp. : July 7, 2017   [Jul-07-17 03:14PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Neogen expands food safety genomic testing   [Jun-19-17 08:45AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Which Companies Are Now Outperforming 95% Of All Stocks?   [Jun-13-17 11:25AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Thinly Traded Medical Stock Nears Buy Zone, Gets Rating Upgrade   [Jun-12-17 11:03AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Neogen launches sesame food allergen test kit   [Jun-05-17 08:45AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Diagnostic Kit Maker Tests Resistance In Base; Gets Rating Upgrade   [Apr-28-17 11:29AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Neogen Corp. : April 27, 2017   [Apr-27-17 04:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Neogen Corp. : April 17, 2017   [Apr-17-17 01:01PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Lansing City Council reconsiders sanctuary city status   [Apr-13-17 06:23PM  Fox Business Videos]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Neogen Corp. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:09PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Neogen meets 3Q profit forecasts   [08:52AM  Associated Press]
▶ Neogen reports 24% increase in net income   [08:45AM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of NEOG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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