Intrinsic value of NextEra Energy Partners - NEP

Previous Close

$41.19

  Intrinsic Value

$37.86

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-8%

Previous close

$41.19

 
Intrinsic value

$37.86

 
Up/down potential

-8%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of NEP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  44.44
  8.50
  8.15
  7.83
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  715
  776
  839
  905
  973
  1,044
  1,118
  1,195
  1,274
  1,357
  1,443
  1,533
  1,627
  1,724
  1,826
  1,932
  2,042
  2,157
  2,278
  2,404
  2,535
  2,673
  2,817
  2,967
  3,125
  3,290
  3,463
  3,643
  3,833
  4,032
  4,240
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  435
  466
  497
  530
  564
  600
  636
  675
  714
  756
  736
  781
  828
  877
  927
  981
  1,036
  1,094
  1,154
  1,217
  1,283
  1,352
  1,425
  1,500
  1,580
  1,663
  1,749
  1,841
  1,936
  2,036
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  236
  435
  466
  497
  530
  564
  600
  636
  675
  714
  756
  736
  781
  828
  877
  927
  981
  1,036
  1,094
  1,154
  1,217
  1,283
  1,352
  1,425
  1,500
  1,580
  1,663
  1,749
  1,841
  1,936
  2,036
Operating income, $m
  479
  340
  373
  408
  443
  480
  518
  558
  600
  643
  688
  797
  846
  896
  949
  1,004
  1,062
  1,121
  1,184
  1,250
  1,318
  1,389
  1,464
  1,542
  1,624
  1,710
  1,800
  1,894
  1,993
  2,096
  2,204
EBITDA, $m
  684
  590
  638
  688
  740
  794
  850
  908
  969
  1,032
  1,097
  1,165
  1,236
  1,310
  1,388
  1,468
  1,552
  1,640
  1,731
  1,827
  1,927
  2,032
  2,141
  2,255
  2,375
  2,501
  2,632
  2,769
  2,914
  3,065
  3,223
Interest expense (income), $m
  166
  165
  187
  211
  235
  261
  287
  315
  344
  373
  404
  437
  470
  505
  541
  579
  619
  660
  703
  748
  795
  845
  896
  950
  1,006
  1,065
  1,126
  1,191
  1,259
  1,329
  1,404
Earnings before tax, $m
  401
  176
  186
  197
  208
  219
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  360
  375
  391
  408
  425
  443
  461
  481
  501
  523
  545
  568
  593
  618
  645
  674
  703
  734
  766
  801
Tax expense, $m
  56
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  76
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  119
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  207
  216
Net income, $m
  82
  128
  136
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
  263
  274
  286
  298
  310
  323
  337
  351
  366
  381
  398
  415
  433
  451
  471
  492
  513
  536
  560
  584

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  147
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,532
  7,998
  8,649
  9,327
  10,032
  10,763
  11,524
  12,315
  13,137
  13,991
  14,881
  15,806
  16,770
  17,774
  18,821
  19,913
  21,052
  22,241
  23,483
  24,781
  26,137
  27,555
  29,038
  30,590
  32,215
  33,915
  35,696
  37,562
  39,516
  41,564
  43,711
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,385
  7,998
  8,649
  9,327
  10,032
  10,763
  11,524
  12,315
  13,137
  13,991
  14,881
  15,806
  16,770
  17,774
  18,821
  19,913
  21,052
  22,241
  23,483
  24,781
  26,137
  27,555
  29,038
  30,590
  32,215
  33,915
  35,696
  37,562
  39,516
  41,564
  43,711
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
  0.097
Average production assets, $m
  3,247
  3,523
  3,810
  4,108
  4,419
  4,741
  5,076
  5,424
  5,786
  6,163
  6,555
  6,962
  7,387
  7,829
  8,290
  8,771
  9,273
  9,797
  10,344
  10,915
  11,513
  12,137
  12,791
  13,474
  14,190
  14,939
  15,723
  16,545
  17,406
  18,308
  19,254
Working capital, $m
  -39
  -95
  -103
  -111
  -120
  -128
  -137
  -147
  -157
  -167
  -178
  -189
  -200
  -212
  -225
  -238
  -251
  -265
  -280
  -296
  -312
  -329
  -346
  -365
  -384
  -405
  -426
  -448
  -471
  -496
  -522
Total debt, $m
  3,606
  3,983
  4,486
  5,008
  5,551
  6,116
  6,702
  7,312
  7,945
  8,604
  9,290
  10,004
  10,747
  11,521
  12,328
  13,170
  14,048
  14,965
  15,923
  16,923
  17,969
  19,062
  20,205
  21,402
  22,654
  23,966
  25,339
  26,777
  28,284
  29,863
  31,518
Total liabilities, $m
  5,789
  6,166
  6,669
  7,191
  7,734
  8,299
  8,885
  9,495
  10,128
  10,787
  11,473
  12,187
  12,930
  13,704
  14,511
  15,353
  16,231
  17,148
  18,106
  19,106
  20,152
  21,245
  22,388
  23,585
  24,837
  26,149
  27,522
  28,960
  30,467
  32,046
  33,701
Total equity, $m
  1,743
  1,831
  1,981
  2,136
  2,297
  2,465
  2,639
  2,820
  3,008
  3,204
  3,408
  3,620
  3,840
  4,070
  4,310
  4,560
  4,821
  5,093
  5,378
  5,675
  5,985
  6,310
  6,650
  7,005
  7,377
  7,767
  8,174
  8,602
  9,049
  9,518
  10,010
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,532
  7,997
  8,650
  9,327
  10,031
  10,764
  11,524
  12,315
  13,136
  13,991
  14,881
  15,807
  16,770
  17,774
  18,821
  19,913
  21,052
  22,241
  23,484
  24,781
  26,137
  27,555
  29,038
  30,590
  32,214
  33,916
  35,696
  37,562
  39,516
  41,564
  43,711
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.069
  2.170
  2.260
  2.340
  2.420
  2.480
  2.540
  2.590
  2.640
  2.690
  2.730
  2.760
  2.800
  2.830
  2.860
  2.890
  2.910
  2.940
  2.960
  2.980
  3.000
  3.020
  3.040
  3.060
  3.070
  3.090
  3.100
  3.110
  3.130
  3.140
  3.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.219
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  82
  128
  136
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
  263
  274
  286
  298
  310
  323
  337
  351
  366
  381
  398
  415
  433
  451
  471
  492
  513
  536
  560
  584
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  205
  249
  264
  280
  297
  314
  331
  350
  369
  389
  410
  368
  391
  414
  439
  464
  491
  518
  547
  578
  609
  642
  677
  713
  751
  790
  832
  875
  921
  969
  1,019
Funds from operations, $m
  318
  377
  400
  424
  448
  474
  500
  527
  556
  585
  616
  631
  665
  700
  736
  774
  814
  855
  898
  943
  991
  1,040
  1,092
  1,146
  1,202
  1,262
  1,324
  1,389
  1,457
  1,528
  1,603
Change in working capital, $m
  -10
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
Cash from operations, $m
  328
  385
  408
  432
  457
  482
  509
  537
  566
  596
  627
  642
  676
  712
  749
  787
  827
  869
  913
  959
  1,007
  1,057
  1,109
  1,164
  1,222
  1,282
  1,345
  1,411
  1,480
  1,553
  1,629
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -172
  -186
  -202
  -217
  -234
  -251
  -269
  -287
  -306
  -326
  -347
  -368
  -391
  -414
  -439
  -464
  -491
  -518
  -547
  -578
  -609
  -642
  -677
  -713
  -751
  -790
  -832
  -875
  -921
  -969
New CAPEX, $m
  -283
  -276
  -287
  -299
  -310
  -322
  -335
  -348
  -362
  -376
  -392
  -408
  -425
  -442
  -461
  -481
  -502
  -524
  -547
  -572
  -597
  -625
  -653
  -684
  -716
  -749
  -784
  -822
  -861
  -902
  -946
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,156
  -448
  -473
  -501
  -527
  -556
  -586
  -617
  -649
  -682
  -718
  -755
  -793
  -833
  -875
  -920
  -966
  -1,015
  -1,065
  -1,119
  -1,175
  -1,234
  -1,295
  -1,361
  -1,429
  -1,500
  -1,574
  -1,654
  -1,736
  -1,823
  -1,915
Free cash flow, $m
  -828
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -112
  -117
  -121
  -127
  -132
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -270
  -286
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  123
  475
  503
  522
  543
  564
  586
  610
  634
  659
  686
  714
  743
  774
  807
  842
  878
  917
  957
  1,000
  1,046
  1,093
  1,144
  1,197
  1,252
  1,311
  1,373
  1,438
  1,507
  1,579
  1,655
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  900
  9
  13
  12
  10
  8
  6
  4
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  807
  484
  516
  534
  553
  572
  592
  614
  635
  659
  686
  714
  743
  774
  807
  842
  878
  917
  957
  1,000
  1,046
  1,093
  1,144
  1,197
  1,252
  1,311
  1,373
  1,438
  1,507
  1,579
  1,655
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -17
  421
  450
  466
  482
  498
  515
  533
  552
  572
  595
  602
  627
  653
  680
  709
  740
  772
  805
  840
  877
  916
  957
  1,000
  1,046
  1,093
  1,143
  1,196
  1,251
  1,309
  1,370
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -814
  -137
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -221
  -230
  -240
  -250
  -261
  -272
  -284
  -297
  -311
  -325
  -340
  -355
  -372
  -389
  -408
  -427
  -448
  -469
  -492
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  49
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  333
  301
  311
  320
  331
  341
  352
  363
  376
  391
  390
  406
  423
  441
  459
  479
  499
  521
  543
  567
  592
  618
  645
  674
  704
  735
  768
  803
  840
  878
Discount rate, %
 
  10.30
  10.82
  11.36
  11.92
  12.52
  13.15
  13.80
  14.49
  15.22
  15.98
  16.78
  17.62
  18.50
  19.42
  20.39
  21.41
  22.48
  23.61
  24.79
  26.03
  27.33
  28.70
  30.13
  31.64
  33.22
  34.88
  36.62
  38.45
  40.38
  42.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  302
  245
  225
  204
  183
  163
  142
  123
  105
  89
  71
  58
  47
  37
  28
  21
  16
  11
  8
  6
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.6
  99.0
  98.6
  98.2
  98.0
  97.8
  97.7
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6
  97.6

Nextera Energy Partners, LP is a limited partnership formed to acquire, manage and own contracted clean energy projects. The Company, through its limited partnership interest in NextEra Energy Operating Partners, LP (NEP OpCo), owns a portfolio of contracted renewable generation assets consisting of wind and solar projects, as well as contracted natural gas pipeline assets. The Company's primary business objective is to invest in contracted clean energy projects. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's project portfolio of clean, contracted renewable energy assets (initial portfolio) included approximately 989 megawatts (MW) of wind and solar energy generating facilities located in the United States and Canada. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's portfolio included Genesis, Northern Colorado, Tuscola Bay, Elk City, Perrin Ranch, Bluewater, Moore, Sombra, Shafter, Palo Duro, Stateline, Mammoth Plains, Jericho, Cedar Bluff Wind and Golden Hills Wind.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  NextEra Energy Partners (NEP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.2
Price to Sales 3.1
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 49.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 44.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 64.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -15.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 201.3%
Total Debt to Equity 206.9%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Total Capital 1.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Equity 6.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 108%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 86.3%
Operating Margin 67%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 56.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35%
Net Profit Margin 11.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Effective Tax Rate 14%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

NEP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NEP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $715 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by NextEra Energy Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of NextEra Energy Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NEP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.3%, whose default value for NEP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of NextEra Energy Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of NextEra Energy Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NEP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 56.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NEP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for NextEra Energy Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for NextEra Energy Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NEP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NEP are equal to 454.1%.

Life of production assets of 18.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in NextEra Energy Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NEP is equal to -12.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1743 million for NextEra Energy Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 54.361 million for NextEra Energy Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of NextEra Energy Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.

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Financial statements of NEP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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