Intrinsic value of New Media Investment Group - NEWM

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$14.40

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$14.40

 
Intrinsic value

$17.92

 
Up/down potential

+24%

 
Rating

buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NEWM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.93
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,255
  1,280
  1,310
  1,343
  1,381
  1,423
  1,469
  1,519
  1,573
  1,631
  1,694
  1,761
  1,832
  1,908
  1,989
  2,075
  2,166
  2,262
  2,364
  2,472
  2,585
  2,705
  2,831
  2,965
  3,105
  3,253
  3,408
  3,572
  3,745
  3,926
  4,117
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,168
  1,195
  1,225
  1,259
  1,296
  1,337
  1,382
  1,430
  1,483
  1,539
  1,576
  1,640
  1,708
  1,780
  1,857
  1,938
  2,024
  2,115
  2,212
  2,313
  2,421
  2,534
  2,653
  2,778
  2,911
  3,050
  3,197
  3,351
  3,513
  3,684
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,194
  1,168
  1,195
  1,225
  1,259
  1,296
  1,337
  1,382
  1,430
  1,483
  1,539
  1,576
  1,640
  1,708
  1,780
  1,857
  1,938
  2,024
  2,115
  2,212
  2,313
  2,421
  2,534
  2,653
  2,778
  2,911
  3,050
  3,197
  3,351
  3,513
  3,684
Operating income, $m
  61
  112
  115
  118
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  185
  193
  201
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  284
  298
  312
  327
  342
  358
  376
  394
  413
  433
EBITDA, $m
  129
  189
  193
  198
  204
  210
  217
  224
  232
  240
  250
  260
  270
  281
  293
  306
  319
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
  417
  437
  458
  479
  502
  527
  552
  579
  607
Interest expense (income), $m
  27
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
Earnings before tax, $m
  29
  86
  88
  91
  93
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  144
  150
  155
  161
  168
  174
  181
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  290
  304
  318
Tax expense, $m
  -3
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
Net income, $m
  32
  63
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  105
  109
  113
  118
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  172
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,336
  1,187
  1,215
  1,246
  1,281
  1,320
  1,363
  1,409
  1,459
  1,513
  1,571
  1,633
  1,700
  1,770
  1,845
  1,925
  2,009
  2,099
  2,193
  2,293
  2,398
  2,509
  2,627
  2,750
  2,880
  3,017
  3,162
  3,314
  3,474
  3,642
  3,819
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,164
  1,187
  1,215
  1,246
  1,281
  1,320
  1,363
  1,409
  1,459
  1,513
  1,571
  1,633
  1,700
  1,770
  1,845
  1,925
  2,009
  2,099
  2,193
  2,293
  2,398
  2,509
  2,627
  2,750
  2,880
  3,017
  3,162
  3,314
  3,474
  3,642
  3,819
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
  1.078
Average production assets, $m
  711
  725
  741
  760
  782
  805
  831
  860
  890
  923
  959
  997
  1,037
  1,080
  1,126
  1,175
  1,226
  1,280
  1,338
  1,399
  1,463
  1,531
  1,603
  1,678
  1,757
  1,841
  1,929
  2,022
  2,119
  2,222
  2,330
Working capital, $m
  174
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
Total debt, $m
  366
  363
  377
  392
  409
  428
  449
  471
  496
  522
  550
  580
  613
  647
  684
  722
  764
  807
  853
  902
  953
  1,007
  1,064
  1,124
  1,188
  1,254
  1,325
  1,399
  1,477
  1,559
  1,645
Total liabilities, $m
  581
  578
  592
  607
  624
  643
  664
  686
  711
  737
  765
  795
  828
  862
  899
  937
  979
  1,022
  1,068
  1,117
  1,168
  1,222
  1,279
  1,339
  1,403
  1,469
  1,540
  1,614
  1,692
  1,774
  1,860
Total equity, $m
  755
  609
  623
  639
  657
  677
  699
  723
  749
  776
  806
  838
  872
  908
  947
  988
  1,031
  1,077
  1,125
  1,176
  1,230
  1,287
  1,347
  1,411
  1,478
  1,548
  1,622
  1,700
  1,782
  1,868
  1,959
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,336
  1,187
  1,215
  1,246
  1,281
  1,320
  1,363
  1,409
  1,460
  1,513
  1,571
  1,633
  1,700
  1,770
  1,846
  1,925
  2,010
  2,099
  2,193
  2,293
  2,398
  2,509
  2,626
  2,750
  2,881
  3,017
  3,162
  3,314
  3,474
  3,642
  3,819
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.485
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.501
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513
  0.513

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  32
  63
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  105
  109
  113
  118
  122
  127
  132
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  68
  77
  78
  80
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  92
  94
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  91
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
Funds from operations, $m
  93
  139
  142
  146
  149
  153
  158
  163
  168
  174
  180
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  248
  259
  270
  283
  295
  309
  323
  338
  354
  370
  387
  406
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  98
  161
  142
  145
  149
  153
  157
  162
  167
  173
  179
  179
  186
  193
  201
  209
  218
  227
  236
  247
  257
  269
  281
  294
  307
  321
  336
  351
  368
  385
  403
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -145
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -215
  -225
  -237
  -249
  -261
  -274
Free cash flow, $m
  -47
  94
  71
  71
  71
  71
  71
  72
  72
  73
  74
  70
  71
  73
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  89
  92
  95
  99
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  129
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -4
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  135
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  132
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  86
  105
  85
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  97
  100
  103
  100
  103
  107
  111
  115
  120
  124
  129
  135
  140
  146
  152
  159
  166
  173
  181
  189
  197
  206
  216
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -108
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  158
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  251
  71
  70
  70
  70
  70
  70
  71
  72
  73
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  89
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  115
  120
  125
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  240
  65
  61
  57
  54
  51
  48
  44
  41
  38
  32
  30
  27
  24
  22
  19
  17
  15
  13
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

New Media Investment Group Inc. invests in, owns, and operates local media assets in the United States. The company’s principal products include 125 daily newspapers with total paid circulation of approximately 1.4 million; 314 weekly newspapers with total paid circulation of approximately 315,000 and total free circulation of approximately 1.9 million; 124 shoppers with total circulation of approximately 3.0 million; and 538 locally-focused Websites, including Internet and mobile devices with approximately 224 million page views per month. Its principal products also comprise 2 yellow page directories with a total distribution of approximately 230,000 that cover a population of approximately 411,000 people; 68 business publications; and Propel digital marketing and business services. In addition, the company also produces niche publications that address specific local market interests, such as recreation, sports, healthcare, and real estate. Further, it provides print and online products that offer local market news and information on various topics comprising local news and politics, community and regional events, youth sports, opinion and editorial pages, local schools, obituaries, weddings, and police reports, as well as print and digital advertising products, as well as commercial printing and regional business-oriented publications services. The company reaches approximately 20 million people per week; and serves approximately 220,000 business customers. New Media Investment Group Inc. was founded in 1997 and is based in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  New Media Investment Group (NEWM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.1
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 10%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 17.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 12
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 46.6%
Total Debt to Equity 48.5%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Total Capital 3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Equity 4.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 9.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Operating Margin 4.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Net Profit Margin 2.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Effective Tax Rate -10.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Payout Ratio 187.5%

NEWM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NEWM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1255 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by New Media Investment Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of New Media Investment Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NEWM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NEWM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of New Media Investment Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of New Media Investment Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NEWM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NEWM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.4% for New Media Investment Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for New Media Investment Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NEWM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NEWM are equal to 56.6%.

Life of production assets of 13.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in New Media Investment Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NEWM is equal to 1.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $755 million for New Media Investment Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 53.21 million for New Media Investment Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of New Media Investment Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ GateHouse Media to cut dozens of jobs in Framingham   [Mar-29-17 04:45PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ KC-area newspapers may get a new owner SoftBank   [Mar-01-17 04:59PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ New Media Investment posts 4Q profit   [07:11AM  Associated Press]
▶ Japanese firm to buy GateHouse Media's parent company for $3.3B   [Feb-17-17 01:04PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Is Renren Inc (RENN) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-16-16 07:38PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Are Hedge Funds Right To Grow More Bullish On AAR Corp. (AIR)?   [Dec-02-16 11:52AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ New Media Announces Public Offering of Common Stock   [Nov-17-16 04:04PM  Business Wire]
▶ Columbia Daily Tribune bought by New York publisher   [Sep-23-16 01:10PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ SEC charges Leon Cooperman with insider trading   [Sep-21-16 01:16PM  at MarketWatch]
▶ Dispatch parent company wants to add more business publications   [Aug-01-16 11:55AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Hedge Funds Arent Overly Bullish on Publishing Stocks   [Jun-03-16 01:03PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of NEWM Financial statements of NEWM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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