Intrinsic value of National General Holdings - NGHC

Previous Close

$20.02

  Intrinsic Value

$69.92

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+249%

Previous close

$20.02

 
Intrinsic value

$69.92

 
Up/down potential

+249%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as NGHC.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NGHC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  42.05
  17.00
  15.80
  14.72
  13.75
  12.87
  12.09
  11.38
  10.74
  10.17
  9.65
  9.18
  8.77
  8.39
  8.05
  7.75
  7.47
  7.22
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
Revenue, $m
  0
  4,127
  4,779
  5,482
  6,236
  7,038
  7,889
  8,787
  9,730
  10,719
  11,754
  12,833
  13,958
  15,129
  16,347
  17,613
  18,929
  20,296
  21,717
  23,194
  24,730
  26,327
  27,989
  29,720
  31,522
  33,399
  35,357
  37,399
  39,530
  41,755
  44,079
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,802
  4,400
  5,046
  5,737
  6,474
  7,255
  8,078
  8,944
  9,852
  10,801
  11,776
  12,808
  13,883
  15,000
  16,162
  17,369
  18,624
  19,928
  21,283
  22,692
  24,158
  25,683
  27,271
  28,924
  30,648
  32,444
  34,318
  36,273
  38,314
  40,447
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,276
  3,802
  4,400
  5,046
  5,737
  6,474
  7,255
  8,078
  8,944
  9,852
  10,801
  11,776
  12,808
  13,883
  15,000
  16,162
  17,369
  18,624
  19,928
  21,283
  22,692
  24,158
  25,683
  27,271
  28,924
  30,648
  32,444
  34,318
  36,273
  38,314
  40,447
Operating income, $m
  250
  325
  378
  436
  498
  564
  635
  708
  786
  868
  953
  1,057
  1,150
  1,247
  1,347
  1,451
  1,560
  1,672
  1,789
  1,911
  2,038
  2,169
  2,306
  2,449
  2,597
  2,752
  2,913
  3,081
  3,257
  3,440
  3,632
EBITDA, $m
  345
  428
  495
  568
  646
  729
  818
  911
  1,008
  1,111
  1,218
  1,330
  1,446
  1,568
  1,694
  1,825
  1,962
  2,103
  2,250
  2,404
  2,563
  2,728
  2,900
  3,080
  3,266
  3,461
  3,664
  3,876
  4,096
  4,327
  4,568
Interest expense (income), $m
  33
  39
  80
  126
  175
  228
  284
  343
  406
  472
  541
  613
  688
  767
  848
  933
  1,022
  1,114
  1,209
  1,308
  1,411
  1,519
  1,630
  1,746
  1,867
  1,993
  2,124
  2,260
  2,403
  2,552
  2,707
Earnings before tax, $m
  210
  286
  298
  310
  323
  337
  351
  365
  380
  396
  412
  445
  462
  480
  498
  518
  538
  559
  580
  603
  626
  651
  676
  703
  730
  759
  789
  821
  854
  889
  925
Tax expense, $m
  43
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  197
  205
  213
  222
  231
  240
  250
Net income, $m
  172
  209
  217
  226
  236
  246
  256
  267
  278
  289
  301
  325
  337
  350
  364
  378
  393
  408
  424
  440
  457
  475
  494
  513
  533
  554
  576
  599
  623
  649
  675

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,245
  8,473
  9,812
  11,257
  12,804
  14,453
  16,199
  18,042
  19,980
  22,011
  24,135
  26,352
  28,661
  31,066
  33,567
  36,167
  38,868
  41,676
  44,594
  47,627
  50,780
  54,060
  57,473
  61,026
  64,726
  68,582
  72,602
  76,795
  81,171
  85,739
  90,510
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,245
  8,473
  9,812
  11,257
  12,804
  14,453
  16,199
  18,042
  19,980
  22,011
  24,135
  26,352
  28,661
  31,066
  33,567
  36,167
  38,868
  41,676
  44,594
  47,627
  50,780
  54,060
  57,473
  61,026
  64,726
  68,582
  72,602
  76,795
  81,171
  85,739
  90,510
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
  0.487
Average production assets, $m
  487
  569
  659
  757
  861
  971
  1,089
  1,213
  1,343
  1,479
  1,622
  1,771
  1,926
  2,088
  2,256
  2,431
  2,612
  2,801
  2,997
  3,201
  3,413
  3,633
  3,863
  4,101
  4,350
  4,609
  4,879
  5,161
  5,455
  5,762
  6,083
Working capital, $m
  0
  99
  115
  132
  150
  169
  189
  211
  234
  257
  282
  308
  335
  363
  392
  423
  454
  487
  521
  557
  594
  632
  672
  713
  757
  802
  849
  898
  949
  1,002
  1,058
Total debt, $m
  838
  1,749
  2,738
  3,806
  4,949
  6,167
  7,458
  8,820
  10,252
  11,753
  13,323
  14,961
  16,668
  18,445
  20,293
  22,214
  24,211
  26,286
  28,442
  30,683
  33,014
  35,437
  37,960
  40,585
  43,320
  46,169
  49,140
  52,238
  55,472
  58,848
  62,374
Total liabilities, $m
  5,351
  6,262
  7,251
  8,319
  9,462
  10,680
  11,971
  13,333
  14,765
  16,266
  17,836
  19,474
  21,181
  22,958
  24,806
  26,727
  28,724
  30,799
  32,955
  35,196
  37,527
  39,950
  42,473
  45,098
  47,833
  50,682
  53,653
  56,751
  59,985
  63,361
  66,887
Total equity, $m
  1,894
  2,212
  2,561
  2,938
  3,342
  3,772
  4,228
  4,709
  5,215
  5,745
  6,299
  6,878
  7,481
  8,108
  8,761
  9,439
  10,145
  10,877
  11,639
  12,431
  13,254
  14,110
  15,000
  15,928
  16,894
  17,900
  18,949
  20,043
  21,186
  22,378
  23,623
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,245
  8,474
  9,812
  11,257
  12,804
  14,452
  16,199
  18,042
  19,980
  22,011
  24,135
  26,352
  28,662
  31,066
  33,567
  36,166
  38,869
  41,676
  44,594
  47,627
  50,781
  54,060
  57,473
  61,026
  64,727
  68,582
  72,602
  76,794
  81,171
  85,739
  90,510
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.442
  0.790
  1.070
  1.300
  1.480
  1.640
  1.760
  1.870
  1.970
  2.050
  2.110
  2.180
  2.230
  2.270
  2.320
  2.350
  2.390
  2.420
  2.440
  2.470
  2.490
  2.510
  2.530
  2.550
  2.560
  2.580
  2.590
  2.610
  2.620
  2.630
  2.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261
  0.261

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  172
  209
  217
  226
  236
  246
  256
  267
  278
  289
  301
  325
  337
  350
  364
  378
  393
  408
  424
  440
  457
  475
  494
  513
  533
  554
  576
  599
  623
  649
  675
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  95
  103
  117
  132
  148
  165
  183
  202
  222
  243
  265
  272
  296
  321
  347
  374
  402
  431
  461
  492
  525
  559
  594
  631
  669
  709
  751
  794
  839
  886
  936
Funds from operations, $m
  423
  312
  334
  358
  384
  411
  439
  469
  500
  532
  566
  597
  634
  671
  711
  752
  794
  839
  885
  932
  982
  1,034
  1,088
  1,144
  1,202
  1,263
  1,327
  1,393
  1,463
  1,535
  1,611
Change in working capital, $m
  108
  14
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
Cash from operations, $m
  315
  297
  319
  341
  366
  391
  419
  447
  477
  509
  541
  571
  607
  643
  682
  722
  763
  806
  851
  897
  945
  996
  1,048
  1,102
  1,159
  1,218
  1,280
  1,344
  1,412
  1,482
  1,555
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -75
  -88
  -101
  -116
  -132
  -149
  -167
  -187
  -207
  -228
  -250
  -272
  -296
  -321
  -347
  -374
  -402
  -431
  -461
  -492
  -525
  -559
  -594
  -631
  -669
  -709
  -751
  -794
  -839
  -886
New CAPEX, $m
  -35
  -82
  -90
  -97
  -104
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -196
  -204
  -212
  -220
  -229
  -239
  -249
  -259
  -270
  -282
  -294
  -307
  -321
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -462
  -157
  -178
  -198
  -220
  -243
  -266
  -291
  -317
  -344
  -371
  -399
  -427
  -458
  -489
  -522
  -556
  -591
  -627
  -665
  -704
  -745
  -788
  -833
  -880
  -928
  -979
  -1,033
  -1,088
  -1,146
  -1,207
Free cash flow, $m
  -147
  140
  141
  143
  145
  148
  152
  156
  160
  165
  171
  173
  179
  185
  192
  200
  207
  215
  224
  232
  241
  250
  260
  269
  279
  290
  301
  312
  324
  336
  348
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  32
  911
  989
  1,067
  1,144
  1,218
  1,291
  1,362
  1,432
  1,501
  1,570
  1,638
  1,707
  1,777
  1,848
  1,921
  1,997
  2,075
  2,156
  2,241
  2,330
  2,424
  2,522
  2,626
  2,735
  2,849
  2,971
  3,099
  3,234
  3,376
  3,526
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  204
  109
  132
  151
  168
  184
  200
  214
  228
  241
  253
  254
  266
  277
  289
  301
  313
  325
  338
  352
  366
  381
  397
  414
  433
  452
  473
  495
  519
  544
  570
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  189
  1,020
  1,121
  1,218
  1,312
  1,402
  1,491
  1,576
  1,660
  1,742
  1,823
  1,892
  1,973
  2,054
  2,137
  2,222
  2,310
  2,400
  2,494
  2,593
  2,696
  2,805
  2,919
  3,040
  3,168
  3,301
  3,444
  3,594
  3,753
  3,920
  4,096
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  38
  1,160
  1,263
  1,361
  1,457
  1,551
  1,642
  1,732
  1,820
  1,907
  1,994
  2,065
  2,152
  2,240
  2,329
  2,422
  2,517
  2,615
  2,718
  2,825
  2,937
  3,055
  3,179
  3,309
  3,447
  3,592
  3,744
  3,906
  4,076
  4,255
  4,444
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -380
  -318
  -349
  -377
  -404
  -430
  -456
  -481
  -506
  -530
  -554
  -579
  -603
  -628
  -653
  -679
  -705
  -733
  -762
  -792
  -823
  -856
  -891
  -927
  -966
  -1,006
  -1,049
  -1,094
  -1,142
  -1,192
  -1,245
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  842
  913
  984
  1,053
  1,121
  1,187
  1,251
  1,315
  1,377
  1,439
  1,486
  1,549
  1,612
  1,677
  1,743
  1,811
  1,882
  1,956
  2,033
  2,114
  2,199
  2,288
  2,382
  2,481
  2,585
  2,695
  2,811
  2,934
  3,063
  3,199
Discount rate, %
 
  6.20
  6.51
  6.84
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.04
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.30
  25.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  793
  805
  807
  798
  779
  751
  716
  673
  626
  575
  516
  462
  409
  357
  307
  260
  218
  179
  145
  115
  90
  69
  52
  38
  27
  19
  13
  9
  6
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.2
  90.5
  86.0
  81.9
  78.2
  74.7
  71.5
  68.6
  65.9
  63.5
  61.3
  59.3
  57.4
  55.7
  54.1
  52.5
  51.1
  49.8
  48.5
  47.3
  46.1
  45.0
  43.9
  42.9
  41.9
  41.0
  40.0
  39.2
  38.3
  37.5

National General Holdings Corp. is a specialty personal lines insurance holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides a range of insurance products, including personal and commercial automobile, homeowners, umbrella, recreational vehicle, supplemental health, lender-placed and other niche products. It operates through two segments: Property and Casualty (P&C) and Accident and Health (A&H). Its P&C segment offers its P&C insurance products through a network of agents, a number of affinity partners and through direct-response marketing programs. Its A&H segment provides accident and non-major medical health insurance products targeting its existing P&C policyholders and the anticipated market of employed persons who are uninsured or underinsured. The P&C segment operates its business through three distribution channels: agency, affinity and direct. The A&H segment provides supplemental accident and health insurance products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  National General Holdings (NGHC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.4
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 42%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 52.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 26%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 39.7%
Total Debt to Equity 44.2%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Total Capital 7.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Return On Equity 10.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 9.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Operating Margin 7.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Net Profit Margin 4.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Effective Tax Rate 20.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.7%
Payout Ratio 19.8%

NGHC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NGHC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3527 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by National General Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of National General Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NGHC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.2%, whose default value for NGHC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of National General Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of National General Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NGHC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NGHC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.6% for National General Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for National General Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NGHC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NGHC are equal to 13.8%.

Life of production assets of 6.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in National General Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NGHC is equal to 2.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1894 million for National General Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 107.943 million for National General Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of National General Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.

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Financial statements of NGHC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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