Intrinsic value of Ingevity - NGVT

Previous Close

$73.32

  Intrinsic Value

$25.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-65%

Previous close

$73.32

 
Intrinsic value

$25.54

 
Up/down potential

-65%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NGVT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -6.20
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.17
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
Revenue, $m
  908
  963
  1,021
  1,081
  1,144
  1,209
  1,278
  1,349
  1,424
  1,502
  1,583
  1,668
  1,757
  1,851
  1,949
  2,051
  2,158
  2,270
  2,388
  2,511
  2,641
  2,776
  2,918
  3,067
  3,224
  3,388
  3,560
  3,740
  3,930
  4,129
  4,337
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  273
  289
  306
  323
  342
  361
  381
  402
  424
  447
  470
  495
  521
  549
  578
  608
  640
  673
  707
  744
  782
  822
  864
  908
  954
  1,003
  1,054
  1,107
  1,163
  1,222
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  586
  601
  616
  631
  647
  663
  680
  697
  714
  732
  751
  769
  789
  808
  828
  849
  870
  892
  914
  937
  961
  985
  1,009
  1,035
  1,060
  1,087
  1,114
  1,142
  1,171
  1,200
Total operating expenses, $m
  815
  859
  890
  922
  954
  989
  1,024
  1,061
  1,099
  1,138
  1,179
  1,221
  1,264
  1,310
  1,357
  1,406
  1,457
  1,510
  1,565
  1,621
  1,681
  1,743
  1,807
  1,873
  1,943
  2,014
  2,090
  2,168
  2,249
  2,334
  2,422
Operating income, $m
  93
  105
  131
  160
  189
  220
  253
  288
  325
  363
  404
  448
  493
  541
  591
  645
  701
  760
  823
  890
  960
  1,034
  1,112
  1,194
  1,281
  1,373
  1,470
  1,573
  1,681
  1,795
  1,916
EBITDA, $m
  132
  146
  175
  206
  238
  272
  308
  346
  385
  427
  471
  518
  567
  619
  673
  731
  792
  856
  923
  995
  1,070
  1,150
  1,234
  1,323
  1,416
  1,515
  1,620
  1,730
  1,846
  1,968
  2,098
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  118
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
Earnings before tax, $m
  87
  80
  104
  130
  157
  186
  216
  248
  282
  317
  355
  396
  438
  482
  529
  578
  630
  686
  744
  805
  870
  939
  1,012
  1,089
  1,170
  1,256
  1,346
  1,442
  1,543
  1,649
  1,762
Tax expense, $m
  43
  21
  28
  35
  42
  50
  58
  67
  76
  86
  96
  107
  118
  130
  143
  156
  170
  185
  201
  217
  235
  254
  273
  294
  316
  339
  363
  389
  417
  445
  476
Net income, $m
  35
  58
  76
  95
  115
  136
  158
  181
  206
  232
  259
  289
  320
  352
  386
  422
  460
  500
  543
  588
  635
  686
  739
  795
  854
  917
  983
  1,052
  1,126
  1,204
  1,286

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  833
  851
  902
  955
  1,011
  1,068
  1,129
  1,192
  1,258
  1,327
  1,398
  1,474
  1,553
  1,635
  1,721
  1,812
  1,906
  2,006
  2,110
  2,219
  2,333
  2,453
  2,578
  2,710
  2,848
  2,993
  3,145
  3,304
  3,472
  3,647
  3,831
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  802
  851
  902
  955
  1,011
  1,068
  1,129
  1,192
  1,258
  1,327
  1,398
  1,474
  1,553
  1,635
  1,721
  1,812
  1,906
  2,006
  2,110
  2,219
  2,333
  2,453
  2,578
  2,710
  2,848
  2,993
  3,145
  3,304
  3,472
  3,647
  3,831
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.131
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
Average production assets, $m
  450
  477
  505
  535
  566
  599
  632
  668
  705
  743
  784
  826
  870
  916
  965
  1,015
  1,068
  1,124
  1,182
  1,243
  1,307
  1,374
  1,445
  1,518
  1,596
  1,677
  1,762
  1,852
  1,945
  2,044
  2,147
Working capital, $m
  158
  144
  152
  161
  170
  180
  190
  201
  212
  224
  236
  249
  262
  276
  290
  306
  322
  338
  356
  374
  393
  414
  435
  457
  480
  505
  530
  557
  586
  615
  646
Total debt, $m
  489
  523
  568
  614
  662
  713
  765
  820
  877
  937
  1,000
  1,065
  1,134
  1,205
  1,281
  1,359
  1,442
  1,528
  1,618
  1,713
  1,812
  1,917
  2,026
  2,141
  2,261
  2,387
  2,519
  2,658
  2,803
  2,956
  3,116
Total liabilities, $m
  706
  740
  785
  831
  879
  930
  982
  1,037
  1,094
  1,154
  1,217
  1,282
  1,351
  1,422
  1,498
  1,576
  1,659
  1,745
  1,835
  1,930
  2,029
  2,134
  2,243
  2,358
  2,478
  2,604
  2,736
  2,875
  3,020
  3,173
  3,333
Total equity, $m
  127
  111
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  182
  192
  202
  213
  224
  236
  248
  261
  274
  288
  303
  319
  335
  352
  370
  389
  409
  430
  451
  474
  498
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  833
  851
  902
  955
  1,010
  1,069
  1,129
  1,192
  1,257
  1,326
  1,399
  1,474
  1,553
  1,635
  1,722
  1,812
  1,907
  2,006
  2,109
  2,218
  2,332
  2,453
  2,578
  2,710
  2,848
  2,993
  3,145
  3,305
  3,471
  3,647
  3,831
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.850
  4.730
  4.840
  4.940
  5.040
  5.130
  5.210
  5.290
  5.370
  5.430
  5.500
  5.560
  5.620
  5.670
  5.720
  5.770
  5.820
  5.860
  5.900
  5.940
  5.980
  6.010
  6.040
  6.080
  6.110
  6.130
  6.160
  6.190
  6.210
  6.230
  6.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  35
  58
  76
  95
  115
  136
  158
  181
  206
  232
  259
  289
  320
  352
  386
  422
  460
  500
  543
  588
  635
  686
  739
  795
  854
  917
  983
  1,052
  1,126
  1,204
  1,286
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  129
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
Funds from operations, $m
  133
  100
  120
  141
  164
  188
  213
  239
  267
  296
  327
  359
  393
  430
  468
  508
  551
  596
  643
  693
  746
  802
  861
  923
  989
  1,059
  1,132
  1,209
  1,291
  1,377
  1,468
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
Cash from operations, $m
  128
  91
  111
  132
  155
  178
  202
  228
  256
  284
  315
  346
  380
  416
  453
  493
  535
  579
  626
  675
  727
  782
  840
  901
  966
  1,034
  1,106
  1,182
  1,263
  1,348
  1,437
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -173
New CAPEX, $m
  -57
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -126
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -147
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -251
  -263
  -276
Free cash flow, $m
  2
  26
  42
  60
  78
  98
  118
  139
  162
  186
  211
  238
  266
  296
  327
  360
  396
  433
  472
  514
  558
  604
  653
  705
  760
  818
  879
  944
  1,012
  1,084
  1,161
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  403
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
  160
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -3
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
  160
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -2
  68
  87
  106
  126
  148
  170
  194
  219
  246
  274
  303
  334
  367
  402
  439
  478
  519
  563
  608
  657
  708
  762
  820
  880
  944
  1,011
  1,083
  1,158
  1,237
  1,321
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  387
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  85
  80
  99
  119
  140
  163
  186
  211
  237
  265
  293
  324
  357
  391
  427
  466
  506
  549
  594
  642
  693
  746
  802
  862
  925
  992
  1,062
  1,136
  1,214
  1,297
Discount rate, %
 
  9.60
  10.08
  10.58
  11.11
  11.67
  12.25
  12.86
  13.51
  14.18
  14.89
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.10
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.00
  23.10
  24.26
  25.47
  26.75
  28.08
  29.49
  30.96
  32.51
  34.13
  35.84
  37.63
  39.51
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  77
  66
  73
  78
  81
  81
  80
  77
  72
  66
  59
  52
  45
  38
  31
  25
  20
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ingevity Corporation is a manufacturer of specialty chemicals and high performance carbon materials. The Company is also a manufacturer of activated carbon used in gasoline vapor emission control systems in cars, trucks, motorcycles and boats. The Company operates through two segments: Performance Materials and Performance Chemicals. The Performance Materials segment primarily produces automotive carbon products used in gasoline vapor emission control systems in cars, trucks, motorcycles and boats. The Performance Chemicals segment develops, manufactures and sells a range of specialty chemicals primarily derived from co-products of the Kraft pulping process. Its products are used in a range of applications, including asphalt paving, oil exploration and production, agrochemicals, adhesives, lubricants, publication inks and automotive components that reduce gasoline vapor emissions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ingevity (NGVT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 88.2
Price to Sales 3.4
Price to Book 24.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 43.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -44.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 378.7%
Total Debt to Equity 385%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Return On Total Capital 5.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Return On Equity 10.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
EBITDA Margin 15.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.2%
Operating Margin 10.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Net Profit Margin 3.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Effective Tax Rate 49.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

NGVT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NGVT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $908 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ingevity. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ingevity. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NGVT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.6%, whose default value for NGVT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ingevity, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ingevity.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NGVT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 28.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $572 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NGVT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.2% for Ingevity.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ingevity. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NGVT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NGVT are equal to 49.5%.

Life of production assets of 11.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ingevity operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NGVT is equal to 14.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $127 million for Ingevity - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.092 million for Ingevity is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ingevity at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ingevity reports third quarter 2017 financial results   [Nov-01-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Stocks Showing Rising Market Leadership: Ingevity Earns 83 RS Rating   [Oct-03-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Ingevity Sees RS Rating Climb To 71   [Sep-21-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Ingevity CEO: Oilfield business coming back   [Aug-31-17 07:32PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Ingevity reports second quarter 2017 financial results   [Aug-02-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingevity Corp. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 04:19PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingevity Corp. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingevity Corp. : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 02:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ingevity Corp. Value Analysis (NYSE:NGVT) : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 06:03PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ingevity reports first quarter 2017 financial results   [May-03-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingevity Corp. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ The Top 15 Spin-Offs Of 2016   [03:48PM  at Forbes]
▶ Ingevity Reports Third Quarter 2016 Financial Results   [Nov-02-16 06:22PM  Business Wire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Betting Big on These Q2 IPOs   [Aug-24-16 09:15AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Ingevity Reports Second Quarter 2016 Financial Results   [Aug-03-16 04:15PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of NGVT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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