Intrinsic value of Ingevity - NGVT

Previous Close

$76.63

  Intrinsic Value

$20.07

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-74%

Previous close

$76.63

 
Intrinsic value

$20.07

 
Up/down potential

-74%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NGVT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -6.20
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
Revenue, $m
  908
  952
  997
  1,046
  1,096
  1,150
  1,206
  1,265
  1,327
  1,392
  1,461
  1,533
  1,608
  1,688
  1,772
  1,859
  1,952
  2,048
  2,150
  2,257
  2,369
  2,487
  2,611
  2,741
  2,877
  3,021
  3,172
  3,330
  3,496
  3,670
  3,853
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
  358
  375
  393
  413
  432
  453
  475
  499
  524
  550
  577
  606
  636
  667
  701
  735
  772
  811
  851
  893
  938
  985
  1,034
  1,085
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  586
  601
  616
  631
  647
  663
  680
  697
  714
  732
  751
  769
  789
  808
  828
  849
  870
  892
  914
  937
  961
  985
  1,009
  1,035
  1,060
  1,087
  1,114
  1,142
  1,171
  1,200
Total operating expenses, $m
  815
  855
  883
  912
  941
  972
  1,004
  1,038
  1,072
  1,107
  1,145
  1,183
  1,222
  1,264
  1,307
  1,352
  1,399
  1,447
  1,498
  1,550
  1,604
  1,662
  1,720
  1,781
  1,846
  1,911
  1,980
  2,052
  2,127
  2,205
  2,285
Operating income, $m
  93
  96
  114
  134
  155
  178
  202
  228
  255
  285
  316
  351
  386
  424
  464
  507
  553
  601
  652
  707
  765
  826
  891
  960
  1,032
  1,110
  1,191
  1,278
  1,369
  1,466
  1,568
EBITDA, $m
  132
  137
  157
  179
  202
  227
  254
  282
  312
  344
  378
  415
  454
  495
  539
  585
  635
  687
  743
  801
  864
  930
  1,000
  1,074
  1,153
  1,236
  1,324
  1,417
  1,516
  1,620
  1,730
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  122
  128
  135
Earnings before tax, $m
  87
  71
  88
  105
  125
  145
  167
  191
  216
  243
  272
  303
  336
  371
  408
  448
  490
  534
  582
  632
  686
  742
  803
  866
  934
  1,006
  1,082
  1,162
  1,247
  1,337
  1,433
Tax expense, $m
  43
  19
  24
  28
  34
  39
  45
  51
  58
  66
  73
  82
  91
  100
  110
  121
  132
  144
  157
  171
  185
  200
  217
  234
  252
  272
  292
  314
  337
  361
  387
Net income, $m
  35
  52
  64
  77
  91
  106
  122
  139
  158
  177
  198
  222
  245
  271
  298
  327
  357
  390
  425
  461
  501
  542
  586
  633
  682
  734
  790
  848
  911
  976
  1,046

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  833
  841
  881
  924
  969
  1,016
  1,065
  1,117
  1,172
  1,230
  1,290
  1,354
  1,421
  1,491
  1,565
  1,643
  1,724
  1,810
  1,899
  1,994
  2,093
  2,197
  2,306
  2,421
  2,542
  2,669
  2,802
  2,941
  3,088
  3,242
  3,404
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  802
  841
  881
  924
  969
  1,016
  1,065
  1,117
  1,172
  1,230
  1,290
  1,354
  1,421
  1,491
  1,565
  1,643
  1,724
  1,810
  1,899
  1,994
  2,093
  2,197
  2,306
  2,421
  2,542
  2,669
  2,802
  2,941
  3,088
  3,242
  3,404
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.131
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.133
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.131
  1.132
  1.131
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
  1.132
Average production assets, $m
  450
  471
  494
  518
  543
  569
  597
  626
  657
  689
  723
  759
  796
  836
  877
  920
  966
  1,014
  1,064
  1,117
  1,173
  1,231
  1,292
  1,357
  1,424
  1,495
  1,570
  1,648
  1,730
  1,817
  1,907
Working capital, $m
  158
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  180
  188
  198
  207
  218
  228
  240
  252
  264
  277
  291
  305
  320
  336
  353
  371
  389
  408
  429
  450
  473
  496
  521
  547
  574
Total debt, $m
  489
  514
  550
  587
  626
  667
  710
  755
  803
  853
  906
  961
  1,019
  1,080
  1,145
  1,212
  1,283
  1,357
  1,435
  1,518
  1,604
  1,694
  1,790
  1,890
  1,994
  2,105
  2,220
  2,342
  2,470
  2,604
  2,745
Total liabilities, $m
  706
  731
  767
  804
  843
  884
  927
  972
  1,020
  1,070
  1,123
  1,178
  1,236
  1,297
  1,362
  1,429
  1,500
  1,574
  1,652
  1,735
  1,821
  1,911
  2,007
  2,107
  2,211
  2,322
  2,437
  2,559
  2,687
  2,821
  2,962
Total equity, $m
  127
  109
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
  214
  224
  235
  247
  259
  272
  286
  300
  315
  330
  347
  364
  382
  401
  421
  443
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  833
  840
  882
  924
  969
  1,016
  1,065
  1,117
  1,172
  1,230
  1,291
  1,354
  1,421
  1,491
  1,565
  1,643
  1,724
  1,809
  1,899
  1,994
  2,093
  2,197
  2,307
  2,422
  2,541
  2,669
  2,801
  2,941
  3,088
  3,242
  3,405
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.850
  4.710
  4.800
  4.890
  4.970
  5.050
  5.130
  5.200
  5.270
  5.340
  5.400
  5.460
  5.520
  5.570
  5.630
  5.680
  5.720
  5.770
  5.810
  5.860
  5.890
  5.930
  5.970
  6.000
  6.040
  6.070
  6.100
  6.120
  6.150
  6.180
  6.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  35
  52
  64
  77
  91
  106
  122
  139
  158
  177
  198
  222
  245
  271
  298
  327
  357
  390
  425
  461
  501
  542
  586
  633
  682
  734
  790
  848
  911
  976
  1,046
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  162
Funds from operations, $m
  133
  93
  107
  122
  138
  155
  174
  193
  214
  237
  261
  286
  313
  342
  372
  405
  439
  476
  515
  556
  600
  646
  695
  747
  803
  861
  923
  988
  1,057
  1,130
  1,208
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
Cash from operations, $m
  128
  86
  100
  115
  131
  147
  165
  185
  205
  227
  250
  275
  302
  330
  360
  392
  426
  462
  500
  540
  583
  629
  677
  728
  782
  840
  900
  964
  1,032
  1,104
  1,180
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
New CAPEX, $m
  -57
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -126
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -151
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -245
Free cash flow, $m
  2
  27
  38
  49
  62
  75
  89
  105
  121
  139
  158
  178
  200
  223
  248
  274
  302
  332
  363
  397
  433
  471
  511
  554
  600
  648
  699
  753
  811
  871
  936
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  403
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -3
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -2
  60
  73
  86
  101
  116
  133
  150
  169
  189
  211
  234
  258
  284
  312
  341
  373
  406
  442
  479
  519
  562
  607
  654
  705
  758
  815
  875
  938
  1,005
  1,076
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  387
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  78
  68
  81
  95
  110
  126
  143
  162
  182
  203
  225
  249
  275
  302
  331
  362
  395
  430
  467
  506
  548
  592
  639
  689
  742
  797
  857
  919
  985
  1,055
Discount rate, %
 
  9.60
  10.08
  10.58
  11.11
  11.67
  12.25
  12.86
  13.51
  14.18
  14.89
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.10
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.00
  23.10
  24.26
  25.47
  26.75
  28.08
  29.49
  30.96
  32.51
  34.13
  35.84
  37.63
  39.51
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  71
  56
  60
  62
  63
  63
  61
  59
  55
  51
  46
  40
  35
  29
  24
  20
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ingevity Corporation is a manufacturer of specialty chemicals and high performance carbon materials. The Company is also a manufacturer of activated carbon used in gasoline vapor emission control systems in cars, trucks, motorcycles and boats. The Company operates through two segments: Performance Materials and Performance Chemicals. The Performance Materials segment primarily produces automotive carbon products used in gasoline vapor emission control systems in cars, trucks, motorcycles and boats. The Performance Chemicals segment develops, manufactures and sells a range of specialty chemicals primarily derived from co-products of the Kraft pulping process. Its products are used in a range of applications, including asphalt paving, oil exploration and production, agrochemicals, adhesives, lubricants, publication inks and automotive components that reduce gasoline vapor emissions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ingevity (NGVT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 92.2
Price to Sales 3.6
Price to Book 25.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 45.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -44.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 378.7%
Total Debt to Equity 385%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Return On Total Capital 5.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.1%
Return On Equity 10.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.9%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
EBITDA Margin 15.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.2%
Operating Margin 10.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Net Profit Margin 3.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Effective Tax Rate 49.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

NGVT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NGVT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $908 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ingevity. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ingevity. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NGVT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.6%, whose default value for NGVT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ingevity, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ingevity.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NGVT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 28.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $572 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NGVT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.2% for Ingevity.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ingevity. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NGVT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NGVT are equal to 49.5%.

Life of production assets of 11.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ingevity operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NGVT is equal to 14.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $127 million for Ingevity - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.429 million for Ingevity is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ingevity at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ingevity prices $300 million senior notes offering   [Jan-09-18 05:59PM  Business Wire]
▶ Stocks Showing Rising Market Leadership: Ingevity Earns 84 RS Rating   [Jan-05-18 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Ingevity reports third quarter 2017 financial results   [Nov-01-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Stocks Showing Rising Market Leadership: Ingevity Earns 83 RS Rating   [Oct-03-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Ingevity Sees RS Rating Climb To 71   [Sep-21-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Ingevity CEO: Oilfield business coming back   [Aug-31-17 07:32PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Ingevity reports second quarter 2017 financial results   [Aug-02-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingevity Corp. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 04:19PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingevity Corp. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingevity Corp. : June 15, 2017   [Jun-15-17 02:46PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ingevity Corp. Value Analysis (NYSE:NGVT) : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 06:03PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Ingevity reports first quarter 2017 financial results   [May-03-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Ingevity Corp. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ The Top 15 Spin-Offs Of 2016   [03:48PM  at Forbes]
▶ Ingevity Reports Third Quarter 2016 Financial Results   [Nov-02-16 06:22PM  Business Wire]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Betting Big on These Q2 IPOs   [Aug-24-16 09:15AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Ingevity Reports Second Quarter 2016 Financial Results   [Aug-03-16 04:15PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of NGVT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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