Intrinsic value of Nicholas Financial - NICK

Previous Close

$8.87

  Intrinsic Value

$6.72

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-24%

  Value-price divergence*

-13%

Previous close

$8.87

 
Intrinsic value

$6.72

 
Up/down potential

-24%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-13%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as NICK.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NICK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.10
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  90
  92
  94
  96
  99
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  170
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
  295
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  230
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  82
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  230
Operating income, $m
  9
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
EBITDA, $m
  9
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
Earnings before tax, $m
  9
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
Tax expense, $m
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
Net income, $m
  5
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  334
  338
  345
  354
  364
  375
  387
  400
  415
  430
  447
  464
  483
  503
  524
  547
  571
  596
  623
  652
  682
  713
  747
  782
  819
  858
  899
  942
  987
  1,035
  1,085
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  331
  338
  345
  354
  364
  375
  387
  400
  415
  430
  447
  464
  483
  503
  524
  547
  571
  596
  623
  652
  682
  713
  747
  782
  819
  858
  899
  942
  987
  1,035
  1,085
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.271
  0.272
  0.272
  0.271
  0.273
  0.272
  0.272
  0.271
  0.272
  0.271
  0.272
  0.273
  0.272
  0.271
  0.272
  0.273
  0.271
  0.271
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.271
  0.272
  0.273
  0.272
  0.272
Average production assets, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Working capital, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Total debt, $m
  215
  217
  223
  229
  235
  243
  251
  260
  270
  280
  291
  303
  316
  329
  343
  359
  375
  392
  410
  429
  449
  471
  493
  517
  542
  568
  596
  625
  655
  688
  722
Total liabilities, $m
  225
  227
  233
  239
  245
  253
  261
  270
  280
  290
  301
  313
  326
  339
  353
  369
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
  481
  503
  527
  552
  578
  606
  635
  665
  698
  732
Total equity, $m
  109
  110
  113
  115
  119
  122
  126
  131
  135
  140
  146
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  233
  243
  255
  267
  280
  293
  307
  322
  337
  354
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  334
  337
  346
  354
  364
  375
  387
  401
  415
  430
  447
  464
  483
  503
  524
  547
  571
  596
  623
  651
  681
  714
  746
  782
  819
  858
  899
  942
  987
  1,035
  1,086
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.972
  1.980
  1.980
  1.980
  1.980
  1.990
  1.990
  1.990
  1.990
  2.000
  2.000
  2.000
  2.000
  2.010
  2.010
  2.010
  2.010
  2.020
  2.020
  2.020
  2.020
  2.020
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.040
  2.040
  2.040
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326
  0.326

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  5
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
Funds from operations, $m
  27
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  27
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -2
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -6
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  12
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
Discount rate, %
 
  10.10
  10.61
  11.14
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.05
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.31
  25.52
  26.80
  28.14
  29.55
  31.02
  32.57
  34.20
  35.91
  37.71
  39.59
  41.57
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  11
  9
  9
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Nicholas Financial, Inc. (Nicholas Financial-Canada) is a holding company. The Company's business activities are conducted through its subsidiary, Nicholas Financial, Inc. (Nicholas Financial). Nicholas Financial is a specialized consumer finance company engaged primarily in acquiring and servicing automobile finance installment contracts (Contracts) for purchases of new and used automobiles and light trucks. Nicholas Financial also originates direct consumer loans (Direct Loans) and sells consumer-finance related products. Another subsidiary, Nicholas Data Services, Inc. (NDS), acts as the interim holding company for Nicholas Financial. The Company is engaged in the business of providing financing programs, primarily on behalf of purchasers of new and used cars and light trucks. The Company originates Direct Loans in Florida and North Carolina. As of March 31, 2016, the Company's automobile finance programs were conducted in 18 states.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Nicholas Financial (NICK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.9
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 195.4%
Total Debt to Equity 197.2%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Total Capital 1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Equity 4.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 20%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.5%
Operating Margin 8.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 10%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
Net Profit Margin 5.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Effective Tax Rate 44.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

NICK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NICK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $90 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Nicholas Financial. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Nicholas Financial. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NICK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.1%, whose default value for NICK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Nicholas Financial, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Nicholas Financial.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NICK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NICK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for Nicholas Financial.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Nicholas Financial. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NICK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NICK are equal to 1.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Nicholas Financial operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NICK is equal to -1.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $109 million for Nicholas Financial - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12.726 million for Nicholas Financial is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Nicholas Financial at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
CACC Credit Accepta 282.30 398.94  buy
CPSS Consumer Portf 4.58 13.11  str.buy
SC Santander Cons 15.37 11.80  hold
ATLC Atlanticus Hol 2.30 0.11  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Nicholas Financial posts 1Q profit   [Aug-05-17 01:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Nicholas Financial Reports 1st Quarter Results   [Aug-03-17 05:37PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why there will be a change in leadership at a $91M Clearwater financial firm   [Jun-12-17 03:41PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Nicholas Financial reports 4Q loss   [May-17-17 06:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Clearwater finance firm draws hedge fund interest   [Mar-21-17 07:55AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Clearwater finance firm draws hedge fund interest   [07:55AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 7 Undervalued Stocks With Growing EPS   [Feb-23-17 04:38PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Nicholas Financial posts 3Q profit   [Feb-02-17 12:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ The Next Big Short: Subprime Auto (NICK)   [Oct-21-16 08:17AM  at Investopedia]
▶ Subprime Auto Delinquency Rates on the Rise (NICK, CPSS)   [Oct-06-16 07:35PM  Investopedia]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About SCYNEXIS Inc (SCYX)   [Nov-27  06:30AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Intevac, Inc. (IVAC) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-24  02:31PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 10-Q for Nicholas Financial, Inc.   [Aug-13  08:10PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Nicholas Financial, Inc.   [Jun-17  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Nicholas Financial, Inc.   [Feb-11  07:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Nicholas Financial, Inc.   [Nov-12  07:09PM  Company Spotlight]
▶ Nicholas Financial Reports 2nd Quarter Results   [Nov-04  09:51AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of NICK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

FREE DOWNLOAD
Follow us on:   twitter   twitter   twitter   twitter

VALUATION THEORY       ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2017. All rigths reserved.