Intrinsic value of New Jersey Resources - NJR

Previous Close

$43.85

  Intrinsic Value

$37.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-14%

  Value-price divergence*

+60%

Previous close

$43.85

 
Intrinsic value

$37.54

 
Up/down potential

-14%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+60%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NJR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -31.20
  16.50
  15.35
  14.32
  13.38
  12.55
  11.79
  11.11
  10.50
  9.95
  9.46
  9.01
  8.61
  8.25
  7.92
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
Revenue, $m
  594
  2,191
  2,528
  2,890
  3,276
  3,687
  4,122
  4,580
  5,061
  5,565
  6,091
  6,640
  7,211
  7,806
  8,424
  9,067
  9,735
  10,430
  11,151
  11,901
  12,681
  13,492
  14,337
  15,216
  16,132
  17,086
  18,082
  19,120
  20,204
  21,336
  22,518
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,985
  2,290
  2,618
  2,968
  3,341
  3,735
  4,150
  4,585
  5,042
  5,518
  6,015
  6,533
  7,072
  7,633
  8,215
  8,820
  9,449
  10,103
  10,782
  11,489
  12,224
  12,989
  13,786
  14,615
  15,480
  16,382
  17,323
  18,305
  19,330
  20,402
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,713
  1,993
  2,298
  2,627
  2,977
  3,350
  3,744
  4,160
  4,595
  5,052
  5,528
  6,025
  6,544
  7,083
  7,644
  8,227
  8,832
  9,461
  10,115
  10,795
  11,502
  12,237
  13,003
  13,800
  14,629
  15,495
  16,397
  17,339
  18,321
  19,346
  20,419
Operating income, $m
  168
  198
  229
  263
  299
  338
  378
  421
  466
  513
  562
  614
  667
  723
  781
  841
  903
  968
  1,036
  1,106
  1,179
  1,255
  1,334
  1,416
  1,502
  1,591
  1,684
  1,782
  1,883
  1,989
  2,100
EBITDA, $m
  241
  258
  299
  343
  390
  439
  492
  547
  606
  667
  730
  797
  866
  938
  1,013
  1,091
  1,172
  1,256
  1,343
  1,434
  1,529
  1,627
  1,730
  1,836
  1,947
  2,063
  2,184
  2,309
  2,441
  2,578
  2,721
Interest expense (income), $m
  32
  42
  57
  72
  89
  107
  127
  147
  168
  191
  214
  239
  265
  291
  319
  348
  378
  409
  442
  476
  511
  547
  585
  625
  666
  709
  753
  800
  848
  899
  952
Earnings before tax, $m
  146
  156
  173
  191
  210
  230
  252
  274
  298
  322
  348
  375
  402
  431
  461
  493
  525
  559
  594
  630
  668
  708
  749
  791
  836
  883
  931
  982
  1,035
  1,090
  1,148
Tax expense, $m
  24
  42
  47
  52
  57
  62
  68
  74
  80
  87
  94
  101
  109
  116
  125
  133
  142
  151
  160
  170
  180
  191
  202
  214
  226
  238
  251
  265
  279
  294
  310
Net income, $m
  132
  114
  126
  139
  153
  168
  184
  200
  217
  235
  254
  274
  294
  315
  337
  360
  383
  408
  433
  460
  488
  517
  547
  578
  610
  644
  680
  717
  755
  796
  838

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  38
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,719
  4,288
  4,947
  5,655
  6,412
  7,216
  8,067
  8,963
  9,904
  10,890
  11,919
  12,993
  14,112
  15,276
  16,486
  17,744
  19,051
  20,410
  21,822
  23,290
  24,816
  26,404
  28,056
  29,777
  31,569
  33,437
  35,385
  37,417
  39,538
  41,753
  44,067
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,681
  4,288
  4,947
  5,655
  6,412
  7,216
  8,067
  8,963
  9,904
  10,890
  11,919
  12,993
  14,112
  15,276
  16,486
  17,744
  19,051
  20,410
  21,822
  23,290
  24,816
  26,404
  28,056
  29,777
  31,569
  33,437
  35,385
  37,417
  39,538
  41,753
  44,067
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.161
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
  0.511
Average production assets, $m
  261
  302
  349
  399
  452
  509
  569
  632
  698
  768
  841
  916
  995
  1,077
  1,163
  1,251
  1,343
  1,439
  1,539
  1,642
  1,750
  1,862
  1,978
  2,100
  2,226
  2,358
  2,495
  2,639
  2,788
  2,944
  3,108
Working capital, $m
  35
  210
  243
  277
  315
  354
  396
  440
  486
  534
  585
  637
  692
  749
  809
  870
  935
  1,001
  1,070
  1,143
  1,217
  1,295
  1,376
  1,461
  1,549
  1,640
  1,736
  1,836
  1,940
  2,048
  2,162
Total debt, $m
  1,238
  1,615
  2,065
  2,548
  3,065
  3,614
  4,196
  4,808
  5,451
  6,124
  6,827
  7,560
  8,324
  9,119
  9,946
  10,805
  11,698
  12,626
  13,590
  14,593
  15,635
  16,720
  17,848
  19,024
  20,248
  21,524
  22,854
  24,242
  25,691
  27,203
  28,784
Total liabilities, $m
  2,552
  2,929
  3,379
  3,862
  4,379
  4,928
  5,510
  6,122
  6,765
  7,438
  8,141
  8,874
  9,638
  10,433
  11,260
  12,119
  13,012
  13,940
  14,904
  15,907
  16,949
  18,034
  19,162
  20,338
  21,562
  22,838
  24,168
  25,556
  27,005
  28,517
  30,098
Total equity, $m
  1,167
  1,359
  1,568
  1,793
  2,032
  2,287
  2,557
  2,841
  3,140
  3,452
  3,778
  4,119
  4,473
  4,842
  5,226
  5,625
  6,039
  6,470
  6,918
  7,383
  7,867
  8,370
  8,894
  9,439
  10,007
  10,600
  11,217
  11,861
  12,534
  13,236
  13,969
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,719
  4,288
  4,947
  5,655
  6,411
  7,215
  8,067
  8,963
  9,905
  10,890
  11,919
  12,993
  14,111
  15,275
  16,486
  17,744
  19,051
  20,410
  21,822
  23,290
  24,816
  26,404
  28,056
  29,777
  31,569
  33,438
  35,385
  37,417
  39,539
  41,753
  44,067
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.061
  1.190
  1.320
  1.420
  1.510
  1.580
  1.640
  1.690
  1.740
  1.770
  1.810
  1.840
  1.860
  1.880
  1.900
  1.920
  1.940
  1.950
  1.960
  1.980
  1.990
  2.000
  2.010
  2.020
  2.020
  2.030
  2.040
  2.040
  2.050
  2.060
  2.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317
  0.317

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  132
  114
  126
  139
  153
  168
  184
  200
  217
  235
  254
  274
  294
  315
  337
  360
  383
  408
  433
  460
  488
  517
  547
  578
  610
  644
  680
  717
  755
  796
  838
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  73
  60
  70
  80
  90
  102
  114
  126
  140
  154
  168
  183
  199
  215
  233
  250
  269
  288
  308
  328
  350
  372
  396
  420
  445
  472
  499
  528
  558
  589
  622
Funds from operations, $m
  45
  174
  196
  219
  244
  270
  298
  327
  357
  389
  422
  457
  493
  530
  569
  610
  652
  696
  741
  789
  838
  889
  942
  998
  1,056
  1,116
  1,179
  1,244
  1,313
  1,385
  1,459
Change in working capital, $m
  -98
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
Cash from operations, $m
  143
  144
  164
  184
  207
  230
  256
  283
  311
  341
  372
  404
  438
  473
  510
  548
  588
  629
  672
  717
  763
  811
  861
  913
  968
  1,024
  1,083
  1,145
  1,209
  1,276
  1,346
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -52
  -60
  -70
  -80
  -90
  -102
  -114
  -126
  -140
  -154
  -168
  -183
  -199
  -215
  -233
  -250
  -269
  -288
  -308
  -328
  -350
  -372
  -396
  -420
  -445
  -472
  -499
  -528
  -558
  -589
New CAPEX, $m
  -327
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -156
  -163
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -363
  -94
  -106
  -120
  -133
  -147
  -162
  -177
  -192
  -209
  -227
  -244
  -262
  -281
  -300
  -322
  -342
  -365
  -388
  -412
  -436
  -462
  -489
  -517
  -546
  -577
  -609
  -642
  -678
  -714
  -752
Free cash flow, $m
  -220
  50
  57
  65
  73
  83
  94
  106
  118
  131
  145
  160
  176
  192
  209
  227
  245
  265
  285
  305
  327
  349
  372
  396
  421
  447
  474
  502
  532
  562
  594
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  324
  415
  450
  484
  517
  549
  581
  612
  643
  673
  703
  733
  764
  795
  827
  859
  893
  928
  964
  1,002
  1,042
  1,084
  1,129
  1,175
  1,224
  1,276
  1,330
  1,388
  1,449
  1,513
  1,580
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  15
  79
  83
  85
  87
  87
  86
  84
  81
  77
  72
  67
  61
  54
  47
  39
  31
  23
  14
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  335
  494
  533
  569
  604
  636
  667
  696
  724
  750
  775
  800
  825
  849
  874
  898
  924
  951
  978
  1,007
  1,042
  1,084
  1,129
  1,175
  1,224
  1,276
  1,330
  1,388
  1,449
  1,513
  1,580
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  115
  544
  589
  633
  677
  720
  761
  802
  842
  882
  921
  961
  1,001
  1,041
  1,083
  1,125
  1,169
  1,215
  1,263
  1,313
  1,369
  1,434
  1,501
  1,571
  1,645
  1,723
  1,805
  1,890
  1,980
  2,075
  2,174
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -60
  -192
  -209
  -224
  -240
  -255
  -270
  -284
  -298
  -312
  -326
  -340
  -355
  -369
  -384
  -399
  -414
  -431
  -448
  -465
  -484
  -503
  -524
  -545
  -568
  -592
  -617
  -644
  -672
  -702
  -733
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  352
  380
  409
  437
  465
  491
  518
  544
  569
  595
  620
  646
  672
  699
  727
  755
  785
  815
  848
  885
  930
  977
  1,026
  1,077
  1,131
  1,187
  1,246
  1,308
  1,373
  1,441
Discount rate, %
 
  8.00
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  326
  324
  317
  307
  292
  274
  254
  232
  208
  185
  161
  139
  117
  98
  80
  64
  51
  39
  30
  22
  16
  12
  8
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.0
  96.2
  94.6
  93.2
  92.0
  91.0
  90.1
  89.3
  88.6
  88.0
  87.6
  87.2
  86.9
  86.6
  86.4
  86.2
  86.1
  86.1
  86.1
  86.1
  86.1
  86.1
  86.1
  86.1
  86.1
  86.1
  86.1
  86.1
  86.1
  86.1

New Jersey Resources Corporation is an energy services holding company. The Company's business is the distribution of natural gas through a regulated utility, which provides other retail and wholesale energy services to customers and investing in clean energy projects and midstream assets. It operates in four business segments: Natural Gas Distribution, Clean Energy Ventures, Energy Services and Midstream. The Natural Gas Distribution segment consists of regulated natural gas services, off-system sales, capacity and storage management operations. The Energy Services segment consists of unregulated wholesale energy operations. The Clean Energy Ventures segment consists of capital investments in clean energy projects. The Midstream segment consists of investments in the midstream natural gas market, such as natural gas transportation and storage facilities. The Home Services and Other operations consist of heating, cooling and water appliance sales and installations, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  New Jersey Resources (NJR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.6
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 26.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -20.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -31.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 12%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 90.4%
Total Debt to Equity 106.1%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Total Capital 6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Return On Equity 11.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 13.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Operating Margin 8.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Net Profit Margin 7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Effective Tax Rate 16.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.6%
Payout Ratio 62.1%

NJR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NJR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1881 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by New Jersey Resources. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of New Jersey Resources. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NJR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8%, whose default value for NJR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of New Jersey Resources, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of New Jersey Resources.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NJR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $8 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NJR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for New Jersey Resources.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for New Jersey Resources. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NJR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NJR are equal to 13.8%.

Life of production assets of 3.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in New Jersey Resources operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NJR is equal to 9.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1167 million for New Jersey Resources - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 86.758 million for New Jersey Resources is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of New Jersey Resources at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ New Jersey Resources beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Aug-02-17 10:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Are ETF Inflows Affecting Small Cap Stocks?   [Jun-08-17 03:29PM  Barrons.com]
▶ New Jersey Resources beats 2Q profit forecasts   [06:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Jersey Resources misses 1Q profit forecasts   [07:07AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Jersey Resources Corp (NJR) Hedge Funds Are Snapping Up   [Dec-10-16 08:34AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of NJR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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