Intrinsic value of Nektar Therapeutics - NKTR

Previous Close

$44.99

  Intrinsic Value

$0.02

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$44.99

 
Intrinsic value

$0.02

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NKTR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -28.57
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.17
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
Revenue, $m
  165
  175
  186
  196
  208
  220
  232
  245
  259
  273
  288
  303
  319
  336
  354
  373
  392
  413
  434
  456
  480
  504
  530
  557
  586
  616
  647
  680
  714
  750
  788
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  208
  219
  232
  245
  259
  273
  288
  303
  319
  336
  346
  365
  384
  404
  425
  448
  471
  495
  521
  548
  576
  605
  636
  669
  703
  738
  776
  815
  856
  900
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  278
  208
  219
  232
  245
  259
  273
  288
  303
  319
  336
  346
  365
  384
  404
  425
  448
  471
  495
  521
  548
  576
  605
  636
  669
  703
  738
  776
  815
  856
  900
Operating income, $m
  -113
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
EBITDA, $m
  -98
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
Interest expense (income), $m
  21
  21
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
Earnings before tax, $m
  -153
  -53
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -154
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -154
  -53
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -154

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  389
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  569
  191
  202
  214
  227
  240
  253
  267
  282
  298
  314
  331
  348
  367
  386
  406
  428
  450
  473
  498
  523
  550
  578
  608
  639
  671
  705
  741
  779
  818
  859
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  180
  191
  202
  214
  227
  240
  253
  267
  282
  298
  314
  331
  348
  367
  386
  406
  428
  450
  473
  498
  523
  550
  578
  608
  639
  671
  705
  741
  779
  818
  859
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.917
  0.916
  0.921
  0.916
  0.916
  0.917
  0.917
  0.918
  0.918
  0.916
  0.917
  0.915
  0.917
  0.916
  0.917
  0.919
  0.916
  0.918
  0.918
  0.916
  0.918
  0.916
  0.917
  0.916
  0.917
  0.918
  0.918
  0.918
  0.917
  0.917
  0.917
Average production assets, $m
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  199
  209
  220
  231
  243
  255
  268
  282
  296
  311
  327
Working capital, $m
  354
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
Total debt, $m
  249
  -60
  -50
  -39
  -28
  -16
  -4
  9
  22
  36
  50
  66
  81
  98
  116
  134
  153
  173
  194
  216
  239
  263
  288
  315
  343
  372
  403
  435
  469
  504
  542
Total liabilities, $m
  481
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  282
  298
  313
  330
  348
  366
  385
  405
  426
  448
  471
  495
  520
  547
  575
  604
  635
  667
  701
  736
  774
Total equity, $m
  88
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  569
  191
  202
  214
  227
  240
  253
  268
  282
  298
  313
  331
  348
  367
  387
  407
  428
  450
  473
  498
  523
  550
  578
  608
  639
  671
  706
  741
  779
  818
  860
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.830
  -3.150
  -2.470
  -1.830
  -1.230
  -0.680
  -0.160
  0.320
  0.780
  1.200
  1.600
  1.980
  2.340
  2.670
  2.990
  3.290
  3.580
  3.840
  4.100
  4.340
  4.570
  4.780
  4.990
  5.180
  5.370
  5.540
  5.710
  5.870
  6.020
  6.160
  6.300
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.672
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -154
  -53
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -81
  -86
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -154
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
Funds from operations, $m
  -122
  -38
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -114
  -121
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  -117
  -36
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -82
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -43
  -46
  -48
Free cash flow, $m
  -199
  -47
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -115
  -121
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -161
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -6
  -306
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  210
  370
  30
  32
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  49
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  89
  94
  100
  106
  113
  119
  126
  134
  142
  150
  158
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  204
  64
  40
  43
  46
  50
  52
  56
  59
  64
  68
  64
  68
  73
  77
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  112
  118
  125
  133
  141
  148
  157
  166
  176
  185
  195
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -82
  -370
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -134
  -142
  -150
  -158
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  386
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  32
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -124
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  31
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  43.2
  37.3
  32.0
  27.5
  23.5
  20.1
  17.1
  14.5
  12.3
  10.7
  9.2
  7.9
  6.8
  5.8
  5.0
  4.3
  3.6
  3.1
  2.6
  2.2
  1.9
  1.6
  1.3
  1.1
  0.9
  0.8
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5

Nektar Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers and develops medicines in areas of high unmet medical need. The Company's research and development pipeline of new investigational drugs includes treatments for cancer, auto-immune disease and chronic pain. It leverages its chemistry platform to discover and design new drug candidates. These drug candidates utilize its polymer conjugate technology platforms, which are designed to enable the development of new molecular entities that target known mechanisms of action. Its programs include Immuno-oncology (I-O), Immunology, Pain-NKTR-181 and Oncology-ONZEALD. It is developing medicines designed to directly or indirectly modulate the activity of key immune cells, such as cytotoxic T cells and Natural Killer (NK) cells, to increase their numbers and improve their function to recognize and attack cancer cells.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -44.8
Price to Sales 41.8
Price to Book 78.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -58.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -56
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -28.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -45.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 130
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 279.5%
Total Debt to Equity 283%
Interest Coverage -6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -24.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.4%
Return On Total Capital -52.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -42.8%
Return On Equity -327.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -171.1%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 81.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 84.2%
EBITDA Margin -70.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -34.5%
Operating Margin -68.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -92.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -51.6%
Net Profit Margin -93.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -51.8%
Effective Tax Rate -0.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

NKTR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NKTR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $165 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Nektar Therapeutics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Nektar Therapeutics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NKTR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NKTR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Nektar Therapeutics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Nektar Therapeutics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NKTR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 118.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NKTR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.5% for Nektar Therapeutics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Nektar Therapeutics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NKTR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NKTR are equal to 41.5%.

Life of production assets of 9.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Nektar Therapeutics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NKTR is equal to -19.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $88 million for Nektar Therapeutics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 156.457 million for Nektar Therapeutics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Nektar Therapeutics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 Biotech Stocks That Soared: Are They Buys?   [Nov-18-17 05:47PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Whats Next for Nektar Therapeutics?   [12:40PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Harry Boxer on four stocks rallying today   [Nov-16-17 02:03PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Company News For Nov 14, 2017   [Nov-14-17 10:32AM  Zacks]
▶ Why Roku, GGP, and Nektar Therapeutics Jumped Today   [Nov-13-17 04:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Nektar Therapeutics Shares Are Soaring 13% Higher   [Nov-08-17 03:20PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Nektar tops Street 3Q forecasts   [06:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ Nektar Rockets To 16-Year High As Analyst Pegs It For Success   [05:10PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Should You Buy Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) Now?   [03:15PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Nektar reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 06:48PM  Associated Press]
▶ Eli Lilly CEO: Strong quarter driven by new products   [Jul-25-17 07:19AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Could This Small Biotech Break Out On A Tie-Up With Eli Lilly?   [Jul-24-17 04:29PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ How This Biotech Could Dethrone Oxycodone In Treating Pain   [Jul-18-17 05:00PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Is This Small Biotech Headed For $1 Billion Market Cap Or A Pitfall?   [Jun-28-17 04:10PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Nektar Therapeutics : June 9, 2017   [Jun-09-17 01:48PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Top Gainers in the Healthcare Sector: May 2226, 2017   [May-31-17 12:01PM  Market Realist]
▶ Bristol-Incyte Match Beats Dow's Merck In Combination Trials   [May-19-17 04:26PM  Investor's Business Daily]
Financial statements of NKTR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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