Intrinsic value of Noah Holdings ADR - NOAH

Previous Close

$50.85

  Intrinsic Value

$49.73

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-2%

Previous close

$50.85

 
Intrinsic value

$49.73

 
Up/down potential

-2%

 
Rating

hold

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as NOAH.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NOAH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.70
  13.20
  12.38
  11.64
  10.98
  10.38
  9.84
  9.36
  8.92
  8.53
  8.18
  7.86
  7.57
  7.32
  7.08
  6.88
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
Revenue, $m
  362
  410
  461
  514
  571
  630
  692
  757
  824
  894
  967
  1,043
  1,122
  1,205
  1,290
  1,379
  1,471
  1,567
  1,666
  1,770
  1,878
  1,991
  2,109
  2,231
  2,359
  2,492
  2,631
  2,777
  2,929
  3,088
  3,254
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  293
  329
  368
  408
  450
  495
  541
  589
  639
  692
  746
  803
  861
  922
  986
  1,052
  1,120
  1,192
  1,266
  1,343
  1,424
  1,508
  1,595
  1,686
  1,782
  1,881
  1,985
  2,094
  2,208
  2,327
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
Total operating expenses, $m
  266
  300
  336
  376
  416
  458
  503
  549
  598
  648
  701
  755
  812
  871
  932
  996
  1,062
  1,131
  1,203
  1,277
  1,354
  1,436
  1,520
  1,607
  1,699
  1,795
  1,894
  1,999
  2,108
  2,222
  2,342
Operating income, $m
  96
  110
  124
  139
  155
  172
  189
  207
  226
  246
  267
  288
  310
  334
  358
  383
  409
  436
  464
  493
  524
  556
  589
  623
  660
  697
  737
  778
  821
  866
  913
EBITDA, $m
  105
  117
  132
  148
  165
  183
  202
  221
  241
  262
  284
  307
  331
  356
  381
  408
  436
  464
  494
  526
  558
  592
  627
  664
  703
  743
  785
  828
  874
  922
  972
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  42
  46
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  84
  90
  95
  101
Earnings before tax, $m
  106
  107
  120
  134
  148
  162
  177
  193
  210
  227
  246
  264
  284
  304
  325
  347
  370
  394
  418
  444
  471
  499
  528
  558
  590
  623
  657
  693
  731
  771
  812
Tax expense, $m
  23
  29
  32
  36
  40
  44
  48
  52
  57
  61
  66
  71
  77
  82
  88
  94
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  142
  151
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  208
  219
Net income, $m
  93
  78
  88
  97
  108
  118
  130
  141
  153
  166
  179
  193
  207
  222
  237
  253
  270
  287
  305
  324
  344
  364
  385
  407
  431
  455
  480
  506
  534
  562
  593

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  473
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  858
  436
  490
  547
  607
  670
  736
  805
  877
  951
  1,029
  1,110
  1,194
  1,281
  1,372
  1,467
  1,565
  1,667
  1,773
  1,883
  1,998
  2,118
  2,243
  2,373
  2,509
  2,651
  2,799
  2,954
  3,116
  3,285
  3,462
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  385
  436
  490
  547
  607
  670
  736
  805
  877
  951
  1,029
  1,110
  1,194
  1,281
  1,372
  1,467
  1,565
  1,667
  1,773
  1,883
  1,998
  2,118
  2,243
  2,373
  2,509
  2,651
  2,799
  2,954
  3,116
  3,285
  3,462
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.940
  0.940
  0.941
  0.940
  0.941
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.941
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
  0.940
Average production assets, $m
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  57
  63
  69
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  110
  117
  125
  134
  143
  152
  161
  171
  181
  192
  203
  215
  227
  239
  253
  267
  281
  296
Working capital, $m
  455
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -163
Total debt, $m
  80
  94
  143
  194
  248
  305
  364
  426
  491
  558
  628
  701
  777
  855
  937
  1,022
  1,110
  1,202
  1,298
  1,397
  1,501
  1,608
  1,721
  1,838
  1,960
  2,088
  2,221
  2,361
  2,506
  2,659
  2,818
Total liabilities, $m
  378
  392
  441
  492
  546
  603
  662
  724
  789
  856
  926
  999
  1,075
  1,153
  1,235
  1,320
  1,408
  1,500
  1,596
  1,695
  1,799
  1,906
  2,019
  2,136
  2,258
  2,386
  2,519
  2,659
  2,804
  2,957
  3,116
Total equity, $m
  480
  44
  49
  55
  61
  67
  74
  80
  88
  95
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  147
  156
  167
  177
  188
  200
  212
  224
  237
  251
  265
  280
  295
  312
  329
  346
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  858
  436
  490
  547
  607
  670
  736
  804
  877
  951
  1,029
  1,110
  1,194
  1,281
  1,372
  1,467
  1,564
  1,667
  1,773
  1,883
  1,999
  2,118
  2,243
  2,373
  2,509
  2,651
  2,799
  2,954
  3,116
  3,286
  3,462
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.167
  2.160
  2.920
  3.550
  4.090
  4.550
  4.950
  5.300
  5.600
  5.870
  6.100
  6.320
  6.500
  6.670
  6.830
  6.970
  7.100
  7.210
  7.320
  7.420
  7.510
  7.590
  7.670
  7.740
  7.810
  7.880
  7.940
  7.990
  8.040
  8.090
  8.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.018
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  93
  78
  88
  97
  108
  118
  130
  141
  153
  166
  179
  193
  207
  222
  237
  253
  270
  287
  305
  324
  344
  364
  385
  407
  431
  455
  480
  506
  534
  562
  593
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
Funds from operations, $m
  78
  85
  96
  107
  118
  130
  142
  155
  168
  182
  197
  212
  228
  244
  261
  279
  297
  316
  336
  356
  378
  400
  424
  448
  473
  500
  528
  557
  587
  619
  652
Change in working capital, $m
  -21
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
Cash from operations, $m
  99
  88
  99
  110
  121
  133
  145
  158
  172
  186
  201
  216
  232
  248
  265
  283
  301
  321
  341
  362
  383
  406
  430
  454
  480
  507
  535
  564
  595
  627
  660
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -127
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -67
  -71
Free cash flow, $m
  -28
  77
  87
  96
  106
  117
  128
  140
  152
  164
  178
  191
  205
  220
  235
  251
  268
  285
  303
  322
  341
  361
  383
  405
  428
  452
  477
  503
  530
  559
  589
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  14
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  99
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  139
  146
  152
  159
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  143
  14
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  99
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  139
  146
  152
  159
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  122
  91
  135
  148
  160
  174
  187
  202
  216
  232
  248
  264
  281
  299
  317
  336
  356
  377
  399
  421
  445
  469
  495
  522
  550
  579
  610
  642
  676
  711
  748
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -102
  -37
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  473
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  528
  130
  142
  154
  167
  181
  195
  209
  224
  240
  256
  273
  290
  308
  327
  346
  367
  388
  410
  433
  457
  483
  509
  536
  565
  595
  627
  660
  694
  730
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  506
  119
  123
  127
  130
  131
  132
  131
  129
  126
  122
  116
  110
  103
  96
  88
  80
  71
  63
  55
  47
  40
  33
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  8
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Noah Holdings Limited is a wealth management service provider with a focus on global wealth investment and asset allocation services for high net worth individuals and enterprises in China. The Company operates through three segments: wealth management, asset management and Internet finance. It also provides Internet finance services to clients in China. It provides direct access to China's high net worth population. With approximately 1,100 relationship managers in over 130 branch offices, its coverage network includes China's regions where high net worth population is concentrated, including the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the Bohai Rim and other regions. Its product offerings consist primarily of over-the-counter (OTC) wealth management and OTC asset management products, mutual fund products and asset management plans originated in China and designed to cater to the needs of China's high net worth population.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Noah Holdings ADR (NOAH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.4
Price to Sales 4
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -28.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 16.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 16.7%
Total Debt to Equity 16.7%
Interest Coverage 36
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Return On Total Capital 18.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 22%
Return On Equity 21.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 32.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.1%
Operating Margin 26.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 29.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.9%
Net Profit Margin 25.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
Effective Tax Rate 21.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

NOAH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NOAH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $362 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Noah Holdings ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Noah Holdings ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NOAH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NOAH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Noah Holdings ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Noah Holdings ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NOAH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $7 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NOAH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.8% for Noah Holdings ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Noah Holdings ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NOAH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NOAH are equal to 9.1%.

Life of production assets of 3.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Noah Holdings ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NOAH is equal to -5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $480 million for Noah Holdings ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 56.18 million for Noah Holdings ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Noah Holdings ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 10 Chinese Stocks For Alpha Seekers   [Dec-20-17 08:43AM  Forbes]
▶ Noah Sees Its Composite Rating Rise To 96   [Dec-05-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Noah Holdings' Lam on China Corporate Debt, Economy   [Nov-27-17 09:50PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ Top Growth Stocks To Buy Now   [Nov-23-17 11:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Noah posts 3Q profit   [Nov-20-17 05:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ This investor says funds are bullish on Asia   [Nov-19-17 05:19PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ 3 Ways To Play China's Rate Decision   [Oct-09-17 01:35PM  Benzinga]
▶ Blackstone Earns Relative Strength Rating Upgrade   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Noah posts 2Q profit   [Aug-28-17 10:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Stock With 1,631% EPS Growth And 5.9% Dividend Tests Buy Zone   [Jul-28-17 04:16PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Noah Holdings Rated Investment Grade By S&P   [Jul-24-17 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Noah Holdings Ltd. : July 3, 2017   [Jul-03-17 03:32PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Noah Holdings Ltd. : June 1, 2017   [Jun-01-17 02:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Noah posts 1Q profit   [May-15-17 07:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Trumps Role in the Markets Current Guessing Game   [Apr-19-17 07:37AM  Market Realist]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Noah Holdings Ltd. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 05:09PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Noah posts 4Q profit   [Feb-27-17 05:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Noah Holdings (NOAH) Enters Oversold Territory   [Dec-13-16 09:28AM  Zacks]
▶ Is Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) a Good Stock to Invest in?   [Dec-05-16 03:37PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Tiger Pacific Capitals Bets on China Lead to Big Q3   [Nov-07-16 02:34PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of NOAH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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