Intrinsic value of Northern Oil&Gas - NOG

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$1.45

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NOG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -47.27
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  145
  281
  287
  294
  303
  312
  322
  333
  345
  357
  371
  386
  402
  418
  436
  455
  475
  496
  518
  542
  566
  593
  620
  650
  680
  713
  747
  783
  821
  860
  902
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  137
  140
  143
  147
  152
  157
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  347
  364
  381
  400
  419
  439
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  374
  137
  140
  143
  147
  152
  157
  162
  168
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  212
  221
  231
  241
  252
  264
  276
  289
  302
  316
  331
  347
  364
  381
  400
  419
  439
Operating income, $m
  -229
  144
  147
  151
  155
  160
  165
  171
  177
  183
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  349
  366
  383
  402
  421
  441
  463
EBITDA, $m
  -168
  285
  292
  299
  307
  317
  327
  338
  350
  363
  377
  392
  408
  425
  443
  462
  482
  504
  526
  550
  576
  602
  630
  660
  691
  724
  759
  795
  834
  874
  917
Interest expense (income), $m
  60
  56
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
Earnings before tax, $m
  -295
  88
  109
  111
  115
  118
  122
  126
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
  178
  185
  193
  202
  211
  221
  231
  241
  252
  264
  277
  290
  303
  318
  333
Tax expense, $m
  -2
  24
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
Net income, $m
  -293
  64
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  92
  95
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  130
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  211
  221
  232
  243

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  432
  732
  749
  768
  790
  814
  840
  869
  900
  933
  969
  1,007
  1,048
  1,092
  1,138
  1,187
  1,239
  1,294
  1,353
  1,414
  1,479
  1,548
  1,620
  1,696
  1,776
  1,861
  1,950
  2,044
  2,142
  2,246
  2,355
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  426
  732
  749
  768
  790
  814
  840
  869
  900
  933
  969
  1,007
  1,048
  1,092
  1,138
  1,187
  1,239
  1,294
  1,353
  1,414
  1,479
  1,548
  1,620
  1,696
  1,776
  1,861
  1,950
  2,044
  2,142
  2,246
  2,355
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.340
  0.384
  0.383
  0.383
  0.384
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.384
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
Average production assets, $m
  483
  1,199
  1,227
  1,259
  1,294
  1,333
  1,376
  1,423
  1,474
  1,528
  1,587
  1,650
  1,717
  1,788
  1,864
  1,944
  2,030
  2,120
  2,215
  2,316
  2,422
  2,535
  2,653
  2,778
  2,909
  3,048
  3,194
  3,347
  3,509
  3,679
  3,857
Working capital, $m
  -30
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
Total debt, $m
  833
  575
  590
  608
  627
  649
  672
  698
  726
  756
  788
  823
  859
  899
  940
  984
  1,031
  1,081
  1,133
  1,189
  1,247
  1,309
  1,374
  1,443
  1,515
  1,591
  1,671
  1,755
  1,844
  1,938
  2,036
Total liabilities, $m
  919
  659
  674
  692
  711
  733
  756
  782
  810
  840
  872
  907
  943
  983
  1,024
  1,068
  1,115
  1,165
  1,217
  1,273
  1,331
  1,393
  1,458
  1,527
  1,599
  1,675
  1,755
  1,839
  1,928
  2,022
  2,120
Total equity, $m
  -487
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  225
  236
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  432
  732
  749
  769
  790
  814
  840
  869
  900
  933
  969
  1,008
  1,048
  1,092
  1,138
  1,187
  1,239
  1,294
  1,352
  1,414
  1,479
  1,548
  1,620
  1,697
  1,777
  1,861
  1,950
  2,043
  2,142
  2,247
  2,356
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.710
  7.850
  7.880
  7.910
  7.940
  7.970
  8.000
  8.030
  8.070
  8.100
  8.130
  8.170
  8.200
  8.230
  8.260
  8.290
  8.320
  8.350
  8.380
  8.410
  8.430
  8.460
  8.480
  8.500
  8.530
  8.550
  8.570
  8.590
  8.610
  8.630
  8.640
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.157
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -293
  64
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  92
  95
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  119
  124
  130
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  211
  221
  232
  243
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  61
  141
  144
  148
  152
  157
  162
  167
  173
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  219
  229
  239
  249
  261
  272
  285
  298
  312
  327
  342
  359
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
Funds from operations, $m
  114
  205
  224
  229
  236
  243
  251
  259
  268
  278
  289
  300
  312
  325
  339
  353
  368
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
  480
  503
  527
  551
  578
  605
  634
  665
  697
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  102
  -382
  223
  228
  235
  242
  249
  258
  267
  276
  287
  298
  310
  322
  336
  350
  365
  381
  398
  416
  435
  455
  476
  499
  522
  547
  573
  600
  629
  659
  691
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -138
  -141
  -144
  -148
  -152
  -157
  -162
  -167
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -194
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -249
  -261
  -272
  -285
  -298
  -312
  -327
  -342
  -359
  -376
  -394
  -413
  -433
New CAPEX, $m
  -93
  -23
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -55
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -162
  -170
  -179
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -91
  -161
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -218
  -228
  -239
  -250
  -261
  -273
  -286
  -299
  -314
  -329
  -344
  -362
  -378
  -397
  -416
  -437
  -459
  -481
  -505
  -529
  -556
  -583
  -612
Free cash flow, $m
  11
  -543
  54
  52
  51
  50
  49
  49
  48
  48
  48
  48
  49
  49
  50
  51
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -6
  -260
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  1,074
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -8
  814
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  -803
  69
  70
  71
  72
  73
  75
  76
  78
  80
  83
  86
  88
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  289
  -274
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  68
  68
  68
  69
  70
  72
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  100
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  139
  146
  152
  159
  166
Discount rate, %
 
  12.40
  13.02
  13.67
  14.35
  15.07
  15.83
  16.62
  17.45
  18.32
  19.24
  20.20
  21.21
  22.27
  23.38
  24.55
  25.78
  27.07
  28.42
  29.84
  31.33
  32.90
  34.55
  36.27
  38.09
  39.99
  41.99
  44.09
  46.29
  48.61
  51.04
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  53
  46
  40
  34
  29
  24
  20
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company primarily holds interests in the Bakken and Three Forks formations in the Williston Basin of North Dakota and Montana. As of December 31, 2015, it owned working interests in 2,630 gross producing wells consisting of 2,628 wells targeting the Bakken and Three Forks formations, as well as 2 wells targeting other formations; and had proved reserves of 65.3 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company is based in Wayzata, Minnesota.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Northern Oil&Gas (NOG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.3
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book -0.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -47.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -67.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -23.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -171%
Total Debt to Equity -171%
Interest Coverage -4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -40.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.4%
Return On Total Capital -59.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.3%
Return On Equity 85.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -77.1%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 68.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80%
EBITDA Margin -120%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -132.4%
Operating Margin -157.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -171.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -203.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -195.9%
Net Profit Margin -202.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -176.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

NOG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NOG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $275 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Northern Oil&Gas. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Northern Oil&Gas. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NOG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.4%, whose default value for NOG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Northern Oil&Gas, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Northern Oil&Gas.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NOG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 48.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NOG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.7% for Northern Oil&Gas.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Northern Oil&Gas. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NOG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NOG are equal to 427.6%.

Life of production assets of 8.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Northern Oil&Gas operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NOG is equal to 14.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-198 million for Northern Oil&Gas - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 61.997 million for Northern Oil&Gas is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Northern Oil&Gas at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.


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Stock chart of NOG Financial statements of NOG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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