Intrinsic value of Northern Oil&Gas - NOG

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$2.30

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$2.30

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NOG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -47.27
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  145
  148
  151
  155
  160
  164
  170
  175
  182
  188
  196
  203
  212
  220
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  286
  299
  313
  327
  343
  359
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
  476
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  750
  767
  787
  809
  833
  860
  890
  921
  955
  992
  1,031
  1,073
  1,118
  1,165
  1,215
  1,269
  1,325
  1,385
  1,448
  1,514
  1,584
  1,658
  1,736
  1,818
  1,905
  1,996
  2,092
  2,193
  2,299
  2,411
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  374
  750
  767
  787
  809
  833
  860
  890
  921
  955
  992
  1,031
  1,073
  1,118
  1,165
  1,215
  1,269
  1,325
  1,385
  1,448
  1,514
  1,584
  1,658
  1,736
  1,818
  1,905
  1,996
  2,092
  2,193
  2,299
  2,411
Operating income, $m
  -229
  -602
  -616
  -631
  -649
  -669
  -691
  -714
  -739
  -767
  -796
  -828
  -861
  -897
  -935
  -976
  -1,018
  -1,064
  -1,111
  -1,162
  -1,215
  -1,272
  -1,331
  -1,394
  -1,460
  -1,529
  -1,602
  -1,679
  -1,760
  -1,846
  -1,935
EBITDA, $m
  -168
  -539
  -552
  -566
  -582
  -600
  -619
  -640
  -663
  -687
  -714
  -742
  -772
  -804
  -838
  -874
  -913
  -953
  -996
  -1,042
  -1,089
  -1,140
  -1,193
  -1,249
  -1,308
  -1,371
  -1,436
  -1,505
  -1,578
  -1,654
  -1,735
Interest expense (income), $m
  60
  60
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
Earnings before tax, $m
  -295
  -662
  -638
  -654
  -673
  -693
  -716
  -740
  -767
  -795
  -826
  -859
  -894
  -931
  -971
  -1,013
  -1,058
  -1,105
  -1,155
  -1,208
  -1,264
  -1,322
  -1,384
  -1,450
  -1,519
  -1,591
  -1,668
  -1,748
  -1,833
  -1,922
  -2,016
Tax expense, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -293
  -662
  -638
  -654
  -673
  -693
  -716
  -740
  -767
  -795
  -826
  -859
  -894
  -931
  -971
  -1,013
  -1,058
  -1,105
  -1,155
  -1,208
  -1,264
  -1,322
  -1,384
  -1,450
  -1,519
  -1,591
  -1,668
  -1,748
  -1,833
  -1,922
  -2,016

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  432
  435
  445
  456
  469
  484
  499
  516
  535
  554
  576
  598
  623
  649
  676
  705
  736
  769
  803
  840
  879
  919
  962
  1,007
  1,055
  1,105
  1,158
  1,214
  1,272
  1,334
  1,399
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  426
  435
  445
  456
  469
  484
  499
  516
  535
  554
  576
  598
  623
  649
  676
  705
  736
  769
  803
  840
  879
  919
  962
  1,007
  1,055
  1,105
  1,158
  1,214
  1,272
  1,334
  1,399
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.340
  0.340
  0.339
  0.340
  0.341
  0.339
  0.341
  0.339
  0.340
  0.339
  0.340
  0.339
  0.340
  0.339
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.339
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.341
  0.340
  0.341
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
  0.340
Average production assets, $m
  483
  493
  504
  517
  531
  548
  565
  585
  605
  628
  652
  678
  705
  734
  766
  799
  834
  871
  910
  951
  995
  1,041
  1,090
  1,141
  1,195
  1,252
  1,312
  1,375
  1,441
  1,511
  1,584
Working capital, $m
  -30
  -37
  -38
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
Total debt, $m
  833
  306
  315
  325
  336
  349
  363
  379
  395
  413
  432
  453
  474
  498
  522
  549
  576
  606
  637
  670
  705
  741
  780
  821
  864
  909
  956
  1,007
  1,059
  1,115
  1,173
Total liabilities, $m
  919
  392
  401
  411
  422
  435
  449
  465
  481
  499
  518
  539
  560
  584
  608
  635
  662
  692
  723
  756
  791
  827
  866
  907
  950
  995
  1,042
  1,093
  1,145
  1,201
  1,259
Total equity, $m
  -487
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  52
  53
  55
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  432
  436
  446
  457
  469
  483
  499
  517
  534
  554
  576
  599
  622
  649
  676
  706
  736
  769
  803
  840
  879
  919
  962
  1,008
  1,056
  1,106
  1,158
  1,214
  1,272
  1,334
  1,399
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -1.710
  7.020
  7.070
  7.120
  7.170
  7.220
  7.280
  7.330
  7.390
  7.450
  7.510
  7.560
  7.620
  7.670
  7.730
  7.780
  7.830
  7.880
  7.930
  7.980
  8.020
  8.060
  8.110
  8.150
  8.180
  8.220
  8.260
  8.290
  8.320
  8.360
  8.390
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.157
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -293
  -662
  -638
  -654
  -673
  -693
  -716
  -740
  -767
  -795
  -826
  -859
  -894
  -931
  -971
  -1,013
  -1,058
  -1,105
  -1,155
  -1,208
  -1,264
  -1,322
  -1,384
  -1,450
  -1,519
  -1,591
  -1,668
  -1,748
  -1,833
  -1,922
  -2,016
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  72
  74
  77
  79
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  201
Funds from operations, $m
  114
  -599
  -574
  -589
  -605
  -624
  -644
  -666
  -690
  -716
  -744
  -773
  -805
  -838
  -874
  -912
  -952
  -995
  -1,040
  -1,087
  -1,138
  -1,191
  -1,247
  -1,305
  -1,368
  -1,433
  -1,502
  -1,574
  -1,650
  -1,731
  -1,815
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from operations, $m
  102
  -706
  -573
  -588
  -604
  -623
  -643
  -665
  -689
  -714
  -742
  -771
  -803
  -836
  -872
  -910
  -950
  -992
  -1,037
  -1,084
  -1,134
  -1,187
  -1,243
  -1,302
  -1,364
  -1,429
  -1,497
  -1,570
  -1,646
  -1,726
  -1,810
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
New CAPEX, $m
  -93
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -91
  -71
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -240
  -252
  -264
Free cash flow, $m
  11
  -776
  -647
  -664
  -684
  -706
  -730
  -756
  -783
  -813
  -845
  -880
  -916
  -955
  -996
  -1,040
  -1,086
  -1,135
  -1,186
  -1,241
  -1,299
  -1,359
  -1,423
  -1,491
  -1,562
  -1,637
  -1,716
  -1,799
  -1,886
  -1,978
  -2,074
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -6
  -528
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  1,834
  639
  655
  674
  695
  717
  742
  769
  797
  828
  861
  897
  934
  974
  1,016
  1,061
  1,108
  1,159
  1,212
  1,268
  1,327
  1,389
  1,455
  1,524
  1,597
  1,673
  1,754
  1,839
  1,928
  2,022
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -8
  1,306
  648
  665
  686
  708
  731
  757
  786
  815
  847
  881
  919
  957
  999
  1,042
  1,089
  1,137
  1,190
  1,245
  1,303
  1,364
  1,428
  1,496
  1,567
  1,642
  1,721
  1,804
  1,892
  1,983
  2,080
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  -1,304
  -638
  -654
  -673
  -693
  -716
  -740
  -767
  -795
  -826
  -859
  -894
  -931
  -971
  -1,013
  -1,058
  -1,105
  -1,155
  -1,208
  -1,264
  -1,323
  -1,385
  -1,450
  -1,519
  -1,592
  -1,668
  -1,749
  -1,833
  -1,922
  -2,016
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  289
  -537
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  14.50
  15.23
  15.99
  16.79
  17.62
  18.51
  19.43
  20.40
  21.42
  22.49
  23.62
  24.80
  26.04
  27.34
  28.71
  30.14
  31.65
  33.23
  34.90
  36.64
  38.47
  40.40
  42.42
  44.54
  46.76
  49.10
  51.56
  54.14
  56.84
  59.68
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  3.2
  0.2
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company primarily holds interests in the Bakken and Three Forks formations in the Williston Basin of North Dakota and Montana. As of December 31, 2015, it owned working interests in 2,630 gross producing wells consisting of 2,628 wells targeting the Bakken and Three Forks formations, as well as 2 wells targeting other formations; and had proved reserves of 65.3 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company is based in Wayzata, Minnesota.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Northern Oil&Gas (NOG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.5
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book -0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 1.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -47.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -67.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -23.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -171%
Total Debt to Equity -171%
Interest Coverage -4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -40.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -32.4%
Return On Total Capital -59.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.3%
Return On Equity 85.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -77.1%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 68.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80%
EBITDA Margin -120%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -132.4%
Operating Margin -157.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -171.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -203.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -195.9%
Net Profit Margin -202.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -176.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

NOG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NOG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $145 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Northern Oil&Gas. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Northern Oil&Gas. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NOG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.5%, whose default value for NOG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Northern Oil&Gas, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Northern Oil&Gas.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NOG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 506.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NOG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.2% for Northern Oil&Gas.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Northern Oil&Gas. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NOG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NOG are equal to 333.1%.

Life of production assets of 7.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Northern Oil&Gas operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NOG is equal to -24.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-487 million for Northern Oil&Gas - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 65.781 million for Northern Oil&Gas is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Northern Oil&Gas at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.


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Stock chart of NOG Financial statements of NOG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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