Intrinsic value of National Presto Industries - NPK

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$103.75

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$103.75

 
Intrinsic value

$57.46

 
Up/down potential

-45%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NPK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.93
  21.30
  19.67
  18.20
  16.88
  15.69
  14.62
  13.66
  12.80
  12.02
  11.31
  10.68
  10.12
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.36
  8.02
  7.72
  7.45
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.61
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
Revenue, $m
  342
  415
  496
  587
  686
  794
  910
  1,034
  1,166
  1,306
  1,454
  1,609
  1,772
  1,942
  2,120
  2,305
  2,498
  2,698
  2,906
  3,123
  3,348
  3,581
  3,824
  4,077
  4,340
  4,613
  4,898
  5,194
  5,503
  5,825
  6,161
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  341
  408
  482
  563
  651
  746
  848
  956
  1,071
  1,192
  1,318
  1,451
  1,590
  1,736
  1,887
  2,045
  2,209
  2,380
  2,557
  2,741
  2,932
  3,131
  3,338
  3,553
  3,777
  4,010
  4,253
  4,506
  4,769
  5,045
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  279
  341
  408
  482
  563
  651
  746
  848
  956
  1,071
  1,192
  1,318
  1,451
  1,590
  1,736
  1,887
  2,045
  2,209
  2,380
  2,557
  2,741
  2,932
  3,131
  3,338
  3,553
  3,777
  4,010
  4,253
  4,506
  4,769
  5,045
Operating income, $m
  63
  74
  89
  105
  123
  143
  164
  186
  210
  236
  262
  292
  321
  352
  384
  418
  453
  489
  527
  566
  607
  649
  693
  739
  786
  836
  888
  941
  997
  1,056
  1,116
EBITDA, $m
  78
  89
  106
  126
  147
  170
  195
  221
  250
  280
  311
  344
  379
  416
  454
  493
  535
  577
  622
  668
  716
  766
  818
  873
  929
  987
  1,048
  1,112
  1,178
  1,247
  1,319
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
Earnings before tax, $m
  63
  74
  88
  104
  121
  140
  161
  182
  205
  230
  256
  284
  312
  342
  373
  405
  439
  474
  510
  548
  587
  628
  671
  715
  760
  808
  858
  910
  964
  1,020
  1,078
Tax expense, $m
  21
  20
  24
  28
  33
  38
  43
  49
  55
  62
  69
  77
  84
  92
  101
  109
  119
  128
  138
  148
  159
  170
  181
  193
  205
  218
  232
  246
  260
  275
  291
Net income, $m
  45
  54
  65
  76
  89
  102
  117
  133
  150
  168
  187
  207
  228
  250
  272
  296
  320
  346
  373
  400
  429
  459
  489
  522
  555
  590
  626
  664
  703
  744
  787

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  111
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  418
  372
  446
  527
  616
  712
  817
  928
  1,047
  1,173
  1,305
  1,445
  1,591
  1,744
  1,903
  2,069
  2,242
  2,422
  2,609
  2,803
  3,005
  3,215
  3,433
  3,660
  3,895
  4,141
  4,396
  4,663
  4,940
  5,229
  5,531
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  307
  372
  446
  527
  616
  712
  817
  928
  1,047
  1,173
  1,305
  1,445
  1,591
  1,744
  1,903
  2,069
  2,242
  2,422
  2,609
  2,803
  3,005
  3,215
  3,433
  3,660
  3,895
  4,141
  4,396
  4,663
  4,940
  5,229
  5,531
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.114
  1.116
  1.112
  1.114
  1.114
  1.115
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.113
  1.114
  1.113
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
Average production assets, $m
  56
  68
  81
  96
  112
  130
  149
  170
  191
  214
  238
  264
  291
  319
  348
  378
  410
  442
  477
  512
  549
  587
  627
  669
  712
  757
  803
  852
  902
  955
  1,010
Working capital, $m
  277
  201
  241
  285
  333
  385
  441
  501
  566
  634
  705
  781
  860
  942
  1,028
  1,118
  1,211
  1,309
  1,410
  1,515
  1,624
  1,737
  1,855
  1,977
  2,105
  2,237
  2,375
  2,519
  2,669
  2,825
  2,988
Total debt, $m
  0
  14
  30
  48
  68
  89
  112
  137
  163
  191
  220
  251
  284
  317
  353
  389
  428
  467
  509
  551
  596
  642
  691
  741
  793
  847
  904
  962
  1,024
  1,088
  1,154
Total liabilities, $m
  67
  82
  98
  116
  136
  157
  180
  205
  231
  259
  288
  319
  352
  385
  421
  457
  496
  535
  577
  619
  664
  710
  759
  809
  861
  915
  972
  1,030
  1,092
  1,156
  1,222
Total equity, $m
  350
  290
  347
  410
  480
  555
  636
  723
  815
  913
  1,017
  1,125
  1,239
  1,358
  1,482
  1,612
  1,747
  1,887
  2,032
  2,184
  2,341
  2,504
  2,674
  2,851
  3,035
  3,226
  3,425
  3,632
  3,848
  4,073
  4,308
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  417
  372
  445
  526
  616
  712
  816
  928
  1,046
  1,172
  1,305
  1,444
  1,591
  1,743
  1,903
  2,069
  2,243
  2,422
  2,609
  2,803
  3,005
  3,214
  3,433
  3,660
  3,896
  4,141
  4,397
  4,662
  4,940
  5,229
  5,530
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.050
  0.090
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779
  0.779

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  45
  54
  65
  76
  89
  102
  117
  133
  150
  168
  187
  207
  228
  250
  272
  296
  320
  346
  373
  400
  429
  459
  489
  522
  555
  590
  626
  664
  703
  744
  787
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  15
  17
  20
  24
  27
  31
  35
  39
  44
  49
  53
  58
  64
  70
  76
  82
  88
  95
  102
  110
  117
  125
  134
  142
  151
  161
  170
  180
  191
  202
Funds from operations, $m
  66
  69
  82
  96
  112
  130
  148
  168
  189
  212
  235
  260
  286
  313
  342
  372
  402
  434
  468
  503
  539
  576
  615
  655
  697
  741
  787
  834
  884
  935
  989
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  35
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  127
  133
  138
  144
  150
  156
  163
Cash from operations, $m
  66
  31
  42
  53
  64
  77
  92
  108
  125
  144
  164
  185
  207
  231
  256
  282
  309
  337
  367
  398
  429
  463
  497
  533
  570
  609
  649
  691
  734
  779
  826
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -95
  -102
  -110
  -117
  -125
  -134
  -142
  -151
  -161
  -170
  -180
  -191
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -61
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -50
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -139
  -148
  -157
  -166
  -177
  -187
  -198
  -210
  -221
  -233
  -246
Free cash flow, $m
  5
  8
  15
  21
  29
  37
  47
  58
  70
  83
  97
  112
  128
  145
  163
  182
  202
  223
  244
  267
  290
  315
  340
  366
  393
  422
  451
  481
  513
  546
  580
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  14
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  26
  24
  21
  17
  11
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  14
  42
  42
  41
  38
  34
  30
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  6
  23
  32
  39
  48
  59
  70
  82
  96
  110
  126
  142
  160
  179
  198
  219
  240
  262
  286
  310
  335
  361
  388
  416
  445
  476
  507
  540
  574
  610
  647
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -11
  -51
  -57
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -225
  -235
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  111
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  82
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  3
  12
  23
  34
  46
  60
  74
  89
  105
  122
  140
  158
  178
  197
  218
  239
  262
  285
  308
  333
  358
  385
  412
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  79
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  7
  12
  16
  20
  23
  25
  26
  27
  27
  26
  24
  23
  20
  18
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  96.0
  92.9
  90.7
  89.2
  88.4
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1
  88.1

National Presto Industries, Inc. provides housewares and small appliances, defense, and absorbent products primarily in North America. The company operates through three segments: Housewares/Small Appliance, Defense, and Absorbent Products. The Housewares/Small Appliance segment designs, markets, and distributes housewares and small electrical appliances, including pressure cookers and canners; heat control single thermostatic control line of skillets, griddles, woks, and multi-purpose cookers; deep fryers; waffle makers; pizza ovens; slicer/shredders; electric heaters; hot air, oil, and microwave corn poppers; dehydrators; rice cookers; microwave bacon cookers; coffeemakers and coffeemaker accessories; electric tea kettles; electric knife sharpeners; kitchen gadgets; and timers. This segment sells its products directly to retailers, as well as through independent distributors. The Defense segment manufactures and sells 40mm ammunition, precision mechanical and electro-mechanical assemblies, and medium caliber cartridge cases; less lethal products and support accessories; and detonators, booster pellets, release cartridges, lead azide, and other military energetic devices and materials. This segment also performs load, assemble, and pack operations on ordnance-related products primarily for the United States Department of Defense (DOD) and DOD prime contractors; and provides training for the use of less lethal products. The Absorbent Products segment manufactures and sells private label and branded adult incontinence products. This segment sells its products to distributors and other absorbent product manufacturers. The company was founded in 1905 and is based in Eau Claire, Wisconsin.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  National Presto Industries (NPK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -34.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Return On Total Capital 13.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Return On Equity 13.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.5%
EBITDA Margin 22.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Operating Margin 18.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 18.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Net Profit Margin 13.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.1%
Payout Ratio 77.8%

NPK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NPK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $342 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by National Presto Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of National Presto Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NPK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NPK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of National Presto Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of National Presto Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NPK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NPK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for National Presto Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for National Presto Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NPK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NPK are equal to 16.4%.

Life of production assets of 4.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in National Presto Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NPK is equal to 48.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $350 million for National Presto Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 7.057 million for National Presto Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of National Presto Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.


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Stock chart of NPK Financial statements of NPK
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