Intrinsic value of NorthStar Realty Europe - NRE

Previous Close

$13.74

  Intrinsic Value

$2.62

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-81%

  Value-price divergence*

-111%

Previous close

$13.74

 
Intrinsic value

$2.62

 
Up/down potential

-81%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-111%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as NRE.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NRE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  24.79
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  151
  154
  158
  162
  166
  171
  177
  183
  189
  196
  204
  212
  220
  230
  239
  250
  261
  272
  284
  297
  311
  325
  341
  357
  374
  391
  410
  430
  451
  472
  495
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  328
  336
  344
  354
  365
  377
  389
  403
  418
  434
  450
  468
  487
  508
  530
  553
  578
  604
  631
  660
  691
  723
  757
  793
  831
  871
  912
  956
  1,003
  1,051
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  226
  328
  336
  344
  354
  365
  377
  389
  403
  418
  434
  450
  468
  487
  508
  530
  553
  578
  604
  631
  660
  691
  723
  757
  793
  831
  871
  912
  956
  1,003
  1,051
Operating income, $m
  -75
  -174
  -178
  -183
  -188
  -194
  -200
  -207
  -214
  -222
  -230
  -238
  -248
  -258
  -269
  -280
  -293
  -306
  -319
  -334
  -349
  -365
  -382
  -400
  -419
  -439
  -460
  -483
  -506
  -530
  -556
EBITDA, $m
  -10
  -105
  -108
  -110
  -113
  -117
  -121
  -125
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -150
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -212
  -222
  -232
  -243
  -255
  -267
  -280
  -293
  -307
  -322
  -338
Interest expense (income), $m
  33
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
Earnings before tax, $m
  -60
  -215
  -219
  -225
  -231
  -238
  -246
  -254
  -263
  -273
  -283
  -293
  -305
  -318
  -332
  -346
  -361
  -378
  -395
  -413
  -432
  -452
  -473
  -496
  -519
  -544
  -570
  -598
  -627
  -657
  -689
Tax expense, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -62
  -215
  -219
  -225
  -231
  -238
  -246
  -254
  -263
  -273
  -283
  -293
  -305
  -318
  -332
  -346
  -361
  -378
  -395
  -413
  -432
  -452
  -473
  -496
  -519
  -544
  -570
  -598
  -627
  -657
  -689

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  66
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,845
  1,812
  1,854
  1,901
  1,955
  2,014
  2,079
  2,150
  2,227
  2,309
  2,398
  2,493
  2,594
  2,701
  2,816
  2,937
  3,066
  3,202
  3,346
  3,499
  3,659
  3,829
  4,008
  4,196
  4,395
  4,604
  4,825
  5,057
  5,301
  5,557
  5,827
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,779
  1,812
  1,854
  1,901
  1,955
  2,014
  2,079
  2,150
  2,227
  2,309
  2,398
  2,493
  2,594
  2,701
  2,816
  2,937
  3,066
  3,202
  3,346
  3,499
  3,659
  3,829
  4,008
  4,196
  4,395
  4,604
  4,825
  5,057
  5,301
  5,557
  5,827
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
  0.085
Average production assets, $m
  1,995
  2,034
  2,081
  2,135
  2,195
  2,261
  2,334
  2,414
  2,500
  2,593
  2,692
  2,799
  2,912
  3,033
  3,162
  3,298
  3,442
  3,595
  3,757
  3,928
  4,109
  4,299
  4,500
  4,712
  4,935
  5,170
  5,417
  5,677
  5,951
  6,240
  6,543
Working capital, $m
  0
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -216
Total debt, $m
  1,149
  1,172
  1,201
  1,235
  1,272
  1,314
  1,360
  1,410
  1,463
  1,522
  1,584
  1,651
  1,722
  1,798
  1,878
  1,964
  2,055
  2,150
  2,252
  2,359
  2,472
  2,592
  2,718
  2,850
  2,990
  3,138
  3,293
  3,456
  3,628
  3,808
  3,998
Total liabilities, $m
  1,254
  1,276
  1,305
  1,339
  1,376
  1,418
  1,464
  1,514
  1,567
  1,626
  1,688
  1,755
  1,826
  1,902
  1,982
  2,068
  2,159
  2,254
  2,356
  2,463
  2,576
  2,696
  2,822
  2,954
  3,094
  3,242
  3,397
  3,560
  3,732
  3,912
  4,102
Total equity, $m
  592
  536
  549
  563
  579
  596
  615
  636
  659
  683
  710
  738
  768
  800
  833
  869
  908
  948
  991
  1,036
  1,083
  1,133
  1,186
  1,242
  1,301
  1,363
  1,428
  1,497
  1,569
  1,645
  1,725
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,846
  1,812
  1,854
  1,902
  1,955
  2,014
  2,079
  2,150
  2,226
  2,309
  2,398
  2,493
  2,594
  2,702
  2,815
  2,937
  3,067
  3,202
  3,347
  3,499
  3,659
  3,829
  4,008
  4,196
  4,395
  4,605
  4,825
  5,057
  5,301
  5,557
  5,827
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.941
  2.180
  2.190
  2.190
  2.200
  2.200
  2.210
  2.210
  2.220
  2.230
  2.230
  2.240
  2.240
  2.250
  2.250
  2.260
  2.260
  2.270
  2.270
  2.280
  2.280
  2.290
  2.290
  2.290
  2.300
  2.300
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.320
  2.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296
  0.296

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -62
  -215
  -219
  -225
  -231
  -238
  -246
  -254
  -263
  -273
  -283
  -293
  -305
  -318
  -332
  -346
  -361
  -378
  -395
  -413
  -432
  -452
  -473
  -496
  -519
  -544
  -570
  -598
  -627
  -657
  -689
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  65
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  181
  189
  198
  208
  218
Funds from operations, $m
  24
  -145
  -149
  -152
  -157
  -161
  -167
  -172
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -208
  -217
  -226
  -236
  -247
  -258
  -269
  -282
  -295
  -309
  -323
  -339
  -355
  -372
  -390
  -409
  -428
  -449
  -471
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Cash from operations, $m
  28
  -144
  -147
  -151
  -155
  -159
  -164
  -170
  -176
  -182
  -189
  -197
  -204
  -213
  -222
  -232
  -242
  -253
  -264
  -276
  -289
  -302
  -317
  -332
  -347
  -364
  -381
  -400
  -419
  -440
  -461
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -66
  -68
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -208
New CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -40
  -47
  -53
  -60
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -136
  -145
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -201
  -212
  -223
  -235
  -247
  -260
  -274
  -288
  -303
Cash from investing activities, $m
  392
  -106
  -115
  -122
  -131
  -140
  -148
  -157
  -166
  -176
  -185
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -241
  -255
  -268
  -282
  -296
  -311
  -327
  -344
  -362
  -380
  -399
  -419
  -441
  -463
  -486
  -511
Free cash flow, $m
  420
  -250
  -262
  -273
  -286
  -299
  -313
  -327
  -342
  -358
  -375
  -393
  -411
  -431
  -452
  -473
  -496
  -520
  -546
  -572
  -600
  -630
  -661
  -693
  -727
  -763
  -801
  -841
  -883
  -926
  -972
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -529
  23
  29
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  96
  101
  107
  113
  119
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
  163
  172
  181
  190
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -59
  225
  232
  239
  247
  256
  265
  275
  286
  297
  310
  321
  335
  350
  366
  382
  399
  418
  437
  458
  479
  502
  526
  551
  578
  606
  635
  666
  699
  733
  769
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -596
  248
  261
  273
  285
  298
  311
  325
  340
  355
  372
  388
  406
  426
  447
  468
  490
  514
  538
  565
  592
  621
  652
  684
  718
  753
  790
  829
  871
  914
  959
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -183
  -3
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  194
  -225
  -232
  -239
  -247
  -256
  -265
  -275
  -286
  -297
  -310
  -321
  -335
  -350
  -366
  -382
  -399
  -418
  -437
  -458
  -479
  -502
  -526
  -551
  -578
  -606
  -635
  -666
  -699
  -733
  -769
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  66
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -162
  -232
  -239
  -247
  -256
  -265
  -275
  -286
  -297
  -310
  -321
  -335
  -350
  -366
  -382
  -399
  -418
  -437
  -458
  -479
  -502
  -526
  -551
  -578
  -606
  -635
  -666
  -699
  -733
  -769
Discount rate, %
 
  10.80
  11.34
  11.91
  12.50
  13.13
  13.78
  14.47
  15.20
  15.96
  16.75
  17.59
  18.47
  19.40
  20.37
  21.38
  22.45
  23.58
  24.75
  25.99
  27.29
  28.66
  30.09
  31.59
  33.17
  34.83
  36.57
  38.40
  40.32
  42.34
  44.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -146
  -187
  -171
  -154
  -138
  -122
  -107
  -92
  -78
  -66
  -54
  -44
  -35
  -27
  -21
  -16
  -11
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  75.0
  56.1
  41.8
  31.2
  23.2
  17.2
  12.7
  9.4
  7.0
  5.2
  3.8
  2.8
  2.1
  1.5
  1.1
  0.8
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

NorthStar Realty Europe Corp. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company is a European focused commercial real estate company with primary office properties in cities within Germany, the United Kingdom and France. Its objective is to provide its stockholders with stable and recurring cash flow supplemented by capital growth over time. The Company conducts its business through two segments: Real Estate and Corporate. Its European commercial real estate business is primarily focused on office properties. Its portfolio consists of approximately 48 properties and a total of approximately 495,588 square meters of rentable space, located in various European markets, including Frankfurt, Hamburg, Berlin, London, Paris, Amsterdam, Milan, Brussels and Madrid. Its overall portfolio is over 87% occupied. In addition, it owns over two hotels, which are leased to third-party operators. It is externally managed and advised by an affiliate of NorthStar Asset Management Group Inc. (NSAM).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  NorthStar Realty Europe (NRE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -12.3
Price to Sales 5
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 27.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 42.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 24.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -99.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 194.1%
Total Debt to Equity 194.1%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -4%
Return On Total Capital -2.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.8%
Return On Equity -9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.3%
EBITDA Margin 25.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.5%
Operating Margin -49.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -84.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -39.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -77.4%
Net Profit Margin -41.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -77.3%
Effective Tax Rate -5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Payout Ratio -56.5%

NRE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NRE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $151 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by NorthStar Realty Europe. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of NorthStar Realty Europe. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NRE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.8%, whose default value for NRE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of NorthStar Realty Europe, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of NorthStar Realty Europe.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NRE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 213.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NRE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for NorthStar Realty Europe.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for NorthStar Realty Europe. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NRE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NRE are equal to 1320.9%.

Life of production assets of 31 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in NorthStar Realty Europe operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NRE is equal to -43.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $592 million for NorthStar Realty Europe - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 55.172 million for NorthStar Realty Europe is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of NorthStar Realty Europe at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ NorthStar Realty Europe posts 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 10:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ TSX Venture Exchange Daily Bulletins   [Jun-30-17 10:42PM  CNW Group]
▶ NorthStar Realty Europe posts 1Q loss   [07:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ NorthStar Realty Europe posts 4Q profit   [07:30AM  Associated Press]
▶ Pamplona Capital Is Heavily Betting On These 4 Companies for Q2   [Apr-16-16 09:19PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Hedge Funds Were All Over These 5 IPOs in Q4   [Mar-04-16 11:11AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of NRE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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