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Intrinsic value of North European Oil Royalty Trust - NRT

Previous Close

$8.93

  Intrinsic Value

$270.13

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$8.93

 
Intrinsic value

$270.13

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of NRT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.29
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  8
  13
  20
  30
  43
  61
  83
  112
  147
  189
  238
  296
  362
  436
  519
  610
  710
  818
  934
  1,058
  1,189
  1,328
  1,474
  1,628
  1,789
  1,957
  2,132
  2,314
  2,504
  2,701
  2,906
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Total operating expenses, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Operating income, $m
  7
  12
  19
  28
  42
  59
  82
  111
  145
  188
  237
  295
  361
  435
  518
  609
  709
  816
  932
  1,056
  1,187
  1,326
  1,473
  1,626
  1,787
  1,955
  2,130
  2,312
  2,502
  2,699
  2,904
EBITDA, $m
  7
  12
  19
  28
  42
  59
  82
  111
  145
  188
  237
  295
  361
  435
  518
  609
  709
  816
  932
  1,056
  1,187
  1,326
  1,473
  1,626
  1,787
  1,955
  2,130
  2,312
  2,502
  2,699
  2,904
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Earnings before tax, $m
  7
  12
  19
  29
  42
  59
  82
  111
  146
  188
  237
  295
  361
  435
  518
  609
  709
  816
  932
  1,056
  1,187
  1,326
  1,473
  1,626
  1,787
  1,955
  2,130
  2,312
  2,502
  2,699
  2,904
Tax expense, $m
  0
  3
  5
  8
  11
  16
  22
  30
  39
  51
  64
  80
  97
  117
  140
  164
  191
  220
  252
  285
  321
  358
  398
  439
  482
  528
  575
  624
  675
  729
  784
Net income, $m
  7
  9
  14
  21
  31
  43
  60
  81
  106
  137
  173
  215
  263
  318
  378
  445
  517
  596
  681
  771
  867
  968
  1,075
  1,187
  1,304
  1,427
  1,555
  1,688
  1,826
  1,970
  2,120

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  
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0.000
  
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0.000
  
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0.000
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -15
  -21
  -28
  -37
  -47
  -60
  -74
  -90
  -109
  -130
  -153
  -178
  -204
  -233
  -264
  -297
  -332
  -369
  -407
  -447
  -489
  -533
  -578
  -626
  -675
  -726
Total debt, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Total liabilities, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total equity, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Debt-to-equity ratio
  
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0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  
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0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  7
  9
  14
  21
  31
  43
  60
  81
  106
  137
  173
  215
  263
  318
  378
  445
  517
  596
  681
  771
  867
  968
  1,075
  1,187
  1,304
  1,427
  1,555
  1,688
  1,826
  1,970
  2,120
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  7
  9
  14
  21
  31
  43
  60
  81
  106
  137
  173
  215
  263
  318
  378
  445
  517
  596
  681
  771
  867
  968
  1,075
  1,187
  1,304
  1,427
  1,555
  1,688
  1,826
  1,970
  2,120
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
Cash from operations, $m
  7
  10
  15
  23
  34
  48
  66
  88
  115
  147
  186
  230
  280
  336
  399
  467
  542
  623
  710
  802
  900
  1,003
  1,112
  1,225
  1,345
  1,469
  1,598
  1,733
  1,874
  2,019
  2,171
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  7
  10
  15
  23
  34
  48
  66
  88
  115
  147
  186
  230
  280
  336
  399
  467
  542
  623
  710
  802
  900
  1,003
  1,112
  1,225
  1,345
  1,469
  1,598
  1,733
  1,874
  2,019
  2,171
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  8
  15
  23
  34
  48
  66
  88
  115
  147
  186
  230
  280
  336
  399
  467
  542
  623
  710
  802
  900
  1,003
  1,112
  1,225
  1,345
  1,469
  1,598
  1,733
  1,874
  2,019
  2,171
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  8
  15
  23
  34
  48
  66
  88
  115
  147
  186
  230
  280
  336
  399
  467
  542
  623
  710
  802
  900
  1,003
  1,112
  1,225
  1,345
  1,469
  1,598
  1,733
  1,874
  2,019
  2,171
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  7
  14
  20
  28
  37
  48
  59
  72
  85
  97
  109
  119
  128
  134
  137
  138
  136
  131
  123
  114
  104
  92
  80
  68
  57
  47
  37
  29
  22
  16
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

North European Oil Royalty Trust is a grantor trust. The Trust, on behalf of the owners, holds overriding royalty rights covering gas and oil production in certain concessions or leases in the Federal Republic of Germany. The rights are held under contracts with local German exploration and development subsidiaries of ExxonMobil Corp. (ExxonMobil) and the Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies (Royal Dutch/Shell Group). Under these contracts, the Trust receives various percentage royalties on the proceeds of the sales of certain products from the areas involved. As of October 31, 2016, royalties were received for sales of gas well gas, oil well gas, crude oil, condensate and sulfur. As of October 31, 2016, the Oldenburg concession, located in the German federal state of Lower Saxony, covered 1,386,000 acres. The Trust receives royalties for products, such as gas, sulfur and oil. The Trust does not engage in any operating or active business.


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FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  North European Oil Royalty Trust (NRT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.7
Price to Sales 10.3
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 466.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 422.2%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 5.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 87.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 91.1%
EBITDA Margin 87.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 91.1%
Operating Margin 87.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 88.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 87.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 91.1%
Net Profit Margin 87.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 91.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 85.7%

NRT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NRT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by North European Oil Royalty Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of North European Oil Royalty Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NRT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NRT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of North European Oil Royalty Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of North European Oil Royalty Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NRT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 0%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NRT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for North European Oil Royalty Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for North European Oil Royalty Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NRT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NRT are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in North European Oil Royalty Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NRT is equal to -25%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for North European Oil Royalty Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 8.609 million for North European Oil Royalty Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of North European Oil Royalty Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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COMPANY NEWS

▶ North European Oil Royalty posts 3Q profit   [Aug-11-17 09:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ North European Oil Royalty posts 2Q profit   [May-30-17 03:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ North European Oil Royalty posts 1Q profit   [Feb-10-17 04:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ Watchlist Wednesday: Top 5 Magic Formula Stocks   [Dec-14-16 04:47PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ 2nd Quarter Distribution   [Apr-29  05:37PM  at noodls]
▶ 1st Quarter Distribution   [Jan-30  10:53AM  at noodls]
▶ 3 Hold-Rated Dividend Stocks: MCC, TCRD, NRT   [Jul-28  11:30AM  at TheStreet]
▶ 3 Hold-Rated Dividend Stocks: RNO, GAIN, NRT   [Jul-07  11:30AM  at TheStreet]
▶ 3 Hold-Rated Dividend Stocks: SFL, NRP, NRT   [Jun-26  11:30AM  at TheStreet]
Financial statements of NRT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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