Intrinsic value of National Storage Affiliates Trust - NSA

Previous Close

$25.86

  Intrinsic Value

$2.84

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

Previous close

$25.86

 
Intrinsic value

$2.84

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as NSA.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NSA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  48.51
  30.20
  27.68
  25.41
  23.37
  21.53
  19.88
  18.39
  17.05
  15.85
  14.76
  13.79
  12.91
  12.12
  11.41
  10.76
  10.19
  9.67
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.76
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
Revenue, $m
  199
  259
  331
  415
  512
  622
  746
  883
  1,033
  1,197
  1,374
  1,563
  1,765
  1,979
  2,205
  2,442
  2,691
  2,951
  3,223
  3,506
  3,800
  4,107
  4,426
  4,757
  5,101
  5,458
  5,830
  6,216
  6,618
  7,036
  7,472
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  159
  202
  254
  313
  380
  455
  539
  631
  731
  839
  954
  1,077
  1,207
  1,345
  1,490
  1,641
  1,800
  1,966
  2,139
  2,318
  2,505
  2,699
  2,901
  3,111
  3,329
  3,556
  3,792
  4,037
  4,292
  4,558
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  55
  57
Total operating expenses, $m
  148
  187
  230
  283
  343
  411
  486
  571
  664
  765
  874
  989
  1,113
  1,244
  1,383
  1,529
  1,681
  1,841
  2,008
  2,182
  2,362
  2,550
  2,745
  2,949
  3,160
  3,379
  3,607
  3,845
  4,091
  4,347
  4,615
Operating income, $m
  51
  73
  100
  132
  169
  211
  259
  312
  370
  433
  501
  574
  652
  735
  822
  913
  1,009
  1,110
  1,215
  1,324
  1,438
  1,556
  1,680
  1,808
  1,941
  2,079
  2,222
  2,372
  2,527
  2,689
  2,857
EBITDA, $m
  106
  145
  192
  247
  311
  383
  465
  555
  655
  763
  880
  1,005
  1,138
  1,280
  1,429
  1,586
  1,751
  1,923
  2,103
  2,290
  2,485
  2,688
  2,899
  3,118
  3,346
  3,583
  3,829
  4,084
  4,351
  4,628
  4,916
Interest expense (income), $m
  23
  31
  45
  61
  81
  103
  129
  157
  189
  224
  261
  302
  346
  393
  442
  494
  549
  607
  667
  730
  795
  863
  934
  1,008
  1,084
  1,164
  1,246
  1,332
  1,422
  1,514
  1,611
Earnings before tax, $m
  25
  42
  55
  71
  89
  108
  130
  155
  181
  209
  239
  272
  306
  342
  380
  419
  460
  503
  548
  595
  643
  693
  746
  800
  856
  915
  976
  1,040
  1,106
  1,175
  1,246
Tax expense, $m
  0
  11
  15
  19
  24
  29
  35
  42
  49
  56
  65
  73
  83
  92
  102
  113
  124
  136
  148
  161
  174
  187
  201
  216
  231
  247
  264
  281
  299
  317
  337
Net income, $m
  18
  31
  40
  52
  65
  79
  95
  113
  132
  153
  175
  199
  223
  250
  277
  306
  336
  367
  400
  434
  469
  506
  544
  584
  625
  668
  713
  759
  807
  857
  910

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,892
  2,444
  3,121
  3,914
  4,829
  5,869
  7,035
  8,329
  9,750
  11,295
  12,962
  14,749
  16,653
  18,671
  20,800
  23,039
  25,387
  27,842
  30,404
  33,074
  35,853
  38,745
  41,750
  44,874
  48,120
  51,493
  54,999
  58,645
  62,436
  66,381
  70,488
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,879
  2,444
  3,121
  3,914
  4,829
  5,869
  7,035
  8,329
  9,750
  11,295
  12,962
  14,749
  16,653
  18,671
  20,800
  23,039
  25,387
  27,842
  30,404
  33,074
  35,853
  38,745
  41,750
  44,874
  48,120
  51,493
  54,999
  58,645
  62,436
  66,381
  70,488
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
  0.106
Average production assets, $m
  1,415
  1,842
  2,351
  2,949
  3,638
  4,422
  5,301
  6,276
  7,346
  8,510
  9,766
  11,113
  12,547
  14,067
  15,672
  17,359
  19,128
  20,977
  22,908
  24,919
  27,014
  29,192
  31,457
  33,810
  36,256
  38,797
  41,439
  44,186
  47,042
  50,015
  53,109
Working capital, $m
  0
  -17
  -22
  -27
  -33
  -40
  -48
  -57
  -67
  -78
  -89
  -102
  -115
  -129
  -143
  -159
  -175
  -192
  -209
  -228
  -247
  -267
  -288
  -309
  -332
  -355
  -379
  -404
  -430
  -457
  -486
Total debt, $m
  879
  1,275
  1,749
  2,304
  2,944
  3,672
  4,489
  5,394
  6,389
  7,470
  8,637
  9,888
  11,221
  12,634
  14,124
  15,692
  17,335
  19,053
  20,847
  22,716
  24,661
  26,685
  28,789
  30,976
  33,248
  35,609
  38,063
  40,615
  43,269
  46,031
  48,906
Total liabilities, $m
  1,315
  1,711
  2,185
  2,740
  3,380
  4,108
  4,925
  5,830
  6,825
  7,906
  9,073
  10,324
  11,657
  13,070
  14,560
  16,128
  17,771
  19,489
  21,283
  23,152
  25,097
  27,121
  29,225
  31,412
  33,684
  36,045
  38,499
  41,051
  43,705
  46,467
  49,342
Total equity, $m
  577
  733
  936
  1,174
  1,449
  1,761
  2,111
  2,499
  2,925
  3,388
  3,889
  4,425
  4,996
  5,601
  6,240
  6,912
  7,616
  8,352
  9,121
  9,922
  10,756
  11,623
  12,525
  13,462
  14,436
  15,448
  16,500
  17,593
  18,731
  19,914
  21,147
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,892
  2,444
  3,121
  3,914
  4,829
  5,869
  7,036
  8,329
  9,750
  11,294
  12,962
  14,749
  16,653
  18,671
  20,800
  23,040
  25,387
  27,841
  30,404
  33,074
  35,853
  38,744
  41,750
  44,874
  48,120
  51,493
  54,999
  58,644
  62,436
  66,381
  70,489
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.523
  1.740
  1.870
  1.960
  2.030
  2.090
  2.130
  2.160
  2.180
  2.200
  2.220
  2.230
  2.250
  2.260
  2.260
  2.270
  2.280
  2.280
  2.290
  2.290
  2.290
  2.300
  2.300
  2.300
  2.300
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
  2.310
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  18
  31
  40
  52
  65
  79
  95
  113
  132
  153
  175
  199
  223
  250
  277
  306
  336
  367
  400
  434
  469
  506
  544
  584
  625
  668
  713
  759
  807
  857
  910
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  55
  72
  92
  115
  142
  172
  206
  244
  285
  330
  379
  431
  486
  545
  607
  673
  741
  813
  888
  966
  1,047
  1,131
  1,219
  1,310
  1,405
  1,504
  1,606
  1,713
  1,823
  1,939
  2,058
Funds from operations, $m
  105
  103
  132
  167
  206
  251
  301
  357
  417
  483
  554
  629
  710
  795
  885
  979
  1,077
  1,180
  1,288
  1,400
  1,516
  1,638
  1,763
  1,894
  2,030
  2,172
  2,319
  2,472
  2,631
  2,796
  2,968
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
Cash from operations, $m
  95
  107
  137
  172
  213
  258
  309
  366
  427
  494
  565
  642
  723
  809
  899
  994
  1,094
  1,197
  1,306
  1,418
  1,536
  1,657
  1,784
  1,916
  2,053
  2,195
  2,343
  2,497
  2,657
  2,823
  2,997
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -55
  -71
  -91
  -114
  -141
  -171
  -205
  -243
  -285
  -330
  -379
  -431
  -486
  -545
  -607
  -673
  -741
  -813
  -888
  -966
  -1,047
  -1,131
  -1,219
  -1,310
  -1,405
  -1,504
  -1,606
  -1,713
  -1,823
  -1,939
New CAPEX, $m
  -544
  -427
  -510
  -598
  -689
  -783
  -879
  -975
  -1,070
  -1,164
  -1,256
  -1,346
  -1,434
  -1,520
  -1,604
  -1,687
  -1,769
  -1,850
  -1,930
  -2,012
  -2,094
  -2,178
  -2,265
  -2,353
  -2,446
  -2,542
  -2,642
  -2,747
  -2,857
  -2,973
  -3,094
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -643
  -482
  -581
  -689
  -803
  -924
  -1,050
  -1,180
  -1,313
  -1,449
  -1,586
  -1,725
  -1,865
  -2,006
  -2,149
  -2,294
  -2,442
  -2,591
  -2,743
  -2,900
  -3,060
  -3,225
  -3,396
  -3,572
  -3,756
  -3,947
  -4,146
  -4,353
  -4,570
  -4,796
  -5,033
Free cash flow, $m
  -548
  -375
  -444
  -517
  -591
  -666
  -741
  -815
  -886
  -955
  -1,021
  -1,083
  -1,142
  -1,198
  -1,250
  -1,300
  -1,348
  -1,394
  -1,438
  -1,481
  -1,525
  -1,568
  -1,612
  -1,657
  -1,703
  -1,752
  -1,803
  -1,856
  -1,913
  -1,973
  -2,036
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  254
  396
  474
  555
  640
  728
  817
  906
  994
  1,082
  1,167
  1,251
  1,333
  1,413
  1,491
  1,567
  1,643
  1,718
  1,794
  1,869
  1,946
  2,024
  2,104
  2,187
  2,272
  2,361
  2,454
  2,552
  2,654
  2,762
  2,875
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  378
  139
  163
  186
  210
  233
  255
  275
  294
  311
  326
  338
  348
  356
  362
  366
  368
  369
  369
  367
  365
  361
  357
  353
  349
  344
  339
  335
  330
  326
  322
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  628
  535
  637
  741
  850
  961
  1,072
  1,181
  1,288
  1,393
  1,493
  1,589
  1,681
  1,769
  1,853
  1,933
  2,011
  2,087
  2,163
  2,236
  2,311
  2,385
  2,461
  2,540
  2,621
  2,705
  2,793
  2,887
  2,984
  3,088
  3,197
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  80
  159
  192
  225
  259
  294
  330
  366
  402
  437
  472
  505
  538
  570
  602
  633
  663
  694
  724
  755
  786
  817
  850
  883
  917
  953
  991
  1,030
  1,072
  1,115
  1,161
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -340
  -169
  -203
  -238
  -274
  -312
  -350
  -388
  -426
  -464
  -500
  -536
  -571
  -605
  -639
  -672
  -704
  -736
  -769
  -801
  -834
  -867
  -902
  -937
  -974
  -1,012
  -1,052
  -1,094
  -1,137
  -1,184
  -1,232
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  3
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
Discount rate, %
 
  9.80
  10.29
  10.80
  11.34
  11.91
  12.51
  13.13
  13.79
  14.48
  15.20
  15.96
  16.76
  17.60
  18.48
  19.40
  20.37
  21.39
  22.46
  23.58
  24.76
  26.00
  27.30
  28.67
  30.10
  31.61
  33.19
  34.85
  36.59
  38.42
  40.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  3
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  90.2
  82.1
  75.4
  69.9
  65.2
  61.3
  57.9
  55.1
  52.6
  50.4
  48.6
  46.9
  45.5
  44.2
  43.1
  42.1
  41.2
  40.4
  39.7
  39.1
  38.5
  38.0
  37.5
  37.1
  36.7
  36.3
  36.0
  35.7
  35.4
  35.2

National Storage Affiliates Trust is an integrated, self-administered and self-managed real estate investment trust. The Company is focused on the ownership, operation and acquisition of self-storage properties located within various metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) across the United States. The Company's operating partnership subsidiary is NSA OP, LP. As of December 31, 2016, the Company held ownership interests in and operated a geographically diversified portfolio of 448 self storage properties, located in 23 states, comprising approximately 27.6 million rentable square feet, configured in approximately 220,000 storage units. The Company's self-storage properties are located in various states of the United States, such as California, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, Louisiana, Oregon, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Texas, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado and Georgia.


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FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  National Storage Affiliates Trust (NSA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 61.9
Price to Sales 5.6
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 48.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 209.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 38.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 152.3%
Total Debt to Equity 152.3%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Total Capital 1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Equity 4.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 51.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.4%
Operating Margin 25.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.5%
Net Profit Margin 9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 411.1%

NSA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NSA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $199 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by National Storage Affiliates Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of National Storage Affiliates Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NSA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 30.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.8%, whose default value for NSA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of National Storage Affiliates Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of National Storage Affiliates Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NSA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 61.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $27 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NSA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for National Storage Affiliates Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for National Storage Affiliates Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NSA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NSA are equal to 710.8%.

Life of production assets of 25.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in National Storage Affiliates Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NSA is equal to -6.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $577 million for National Storage Affiliates Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.257 million for National Storage Affiliates Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of National Storage Affiliates Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ National Storage Affiliates to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-07-17 09:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ DTS Inc. (DTSI): Are Hedge Funds Right About This Stock?   [Dec-09-16 10:36AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of NSA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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