Intrinsic value of NanoString Technologies - NSTG

Previous Close

$14.34

  Intrinsic Value

$0.14

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

  Value-price divergence*

+3823%

Previous close

$14.34

 
Intrinsic value

$0.14

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+3823%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NSTG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  36.51
  20.00
  18.50
  17.15
  15.94
  14.84
  13.86
  12.97
  12.17
  11.46
  10.81
  10.23
  9.71
  9.24
  8.81
  8.43
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.03
  6.82
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
  5.71
Revenue, $m
  86
  103
  122
  143
  166
  191
  217
  245
  275
  307
  340
  375
  411
  449
  489
  530
  573
  617
  663
  712
  762
  814
  868
  924
  982
  1,043
  1,107
  1,173
  1,241
  1,313
  1,388
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  108
  128
  150
  174
  200
  227
  257
  288
  321
  356
  392
  430
  470
  512
  555
  600
  646
  695
  745
  797
  852
  908
  967
  1,028
  1,092
  1,159
  1,228
  1,300
  1,375
  1,453
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
Total operating expenses, $m
  128
  148
  169
  192
  217
  244
  272
  303
  336
  370
  406
  443
  482
  524
  567
  611
  658
  705
  756
  807
  861
  918
  975
  1,036
  1,099
  1,164
  1,233
  1,304
  1,378
  1,455
  1,535
Operating income, $m
  -41
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -136
  -142
  -147
EBITDA, $m
  -38
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -129
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  4
  6
  9
  11
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  48
  52
  57
  62
  68
  73
  79
  85
  91
  98
  105
  112
  119
  126
  134
  143
  151
Earnings before tax, $m
  -47
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -103
  -111
  -118
  -126
  -134
  -142
  -151
  -160
  -169
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -271
  -284
  -298
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -47
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -103
  -111
  -118
  -126
  -134
  -142
  -151
  -160
  -169
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -271
  -284
  -298

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  74
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  126
  151
  179
  209
  243
  279
  318
  359
  402
  448
  497
  548
  601
  656
  714
  775
  837
  902
  970
  1,040
  1,113
  1,189
  1,268
  1,351
  1,436
  1,525
  1,618
  1,714
  1,815
  1,920
  2,030
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  52
  151
  179
  209
  243
  279
  318
  359
  402
  448
  497
  548
  601
  656
  714
  775
  837
  902
  970
  1,040
  1,113
  1,189
  1,268
  1,351
  1,436
  1,525
  1,618
  1,714
  1,815
  1,920
  2,030
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.654
  0.682
  0.682
  0.684
  0.683
  0.685
  0.682
  0.682
  0.684
  0.685
  0.684
  0.684
  0.684
  0.684
  0.685
  0.684
  0.685
  0.684
  0.684
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.684
  0.684
  0.684
  0.684
  0.684
  0.684
  0.684
  0.684
Average production assets, $m
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  39
  44
  48
  53
  57
  63
  68
  73
  79
  85
  91
  97
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  142
  150
  159
  168
  178
Working capital, $m
  78
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
Total debt, $m
  47
  69
  94
  122
  152
  184
  219
  256
  295
  337
  380
  426
  474
  524
  576
  630
  686
  745
  806
  869
  935
  1,003
  1,075
  1,149
  1,225
  1,306
  1,389
  1,476
  1,566
  1,661
  1,760
Total liabilities, $m
  114
  136
  161
  189
  219
  251
  286
  323
  362
  404
  447
  493
  541
  591
  643
  697
  753
  812
  873
  936
  1,002
  1,070
  1,142
  1,216
  1,292
  1,373
  1,456
  1,543
  1,633
  1,728
  1,827
Total equity, $m
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  50
  55
  60
  66
  71
  77
  84
  90
  97
  104
  111
  119
  127
  135
  144
  153
  162
  171
  181
  192
  203
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  126
  151
  179
  210
  243
  279
  318
  359
  402
  449
  497
  548
  601
  657
  714
  774
  837
  902
  970
  1,040
  1,113
  1,189
  1,269
  1,351
  1,436
  1,526
  1,618
  1,714
  1,814
  1,920
  2,030
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.917
  4.560
  5.250
  5.800
  6.240
  6.600
  6.890
  7.130
  7.330
  7.510
  7.650
  7.780
  7.890
  7.980
  8.060
  8.130
  8.200
  8.260
  8.310
  8.360
  8.400
  8.440
  8.470
  8.500
  8.530
  8.560
  8.590
  8.610
  8.630
  8.650
  8.670
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.192
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -47
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -103
  -111
  -118
  -126
  -134
  -142
  -151
  -160
  -169
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -271
  -284
  -298
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
Funds from operations, $m
  22
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -75
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -99
  -105
  -112
  -119
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -188
  -198
  -209
  -219
  -231
  -242
  -255
  -267
  -280
Change in working capital, $m
  28
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  -6
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -145
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -234
  -246
  -258
  -271
  -284
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -30
  -3
  -3
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
Free cash flow, $m
  -36
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -149
  -158
  -167
  -177
  -187
  -197
  -208
  -219
  -231
  -243
  -255
  -268
  -282
  -296
  -310
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5
  22
  25
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  94
  99
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  30
  52
  56
  60
  65
  70
  76
  82
  88
  95
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  140
  148
  157
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  254
  267
  281
  295
  309
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  35
  74
  81
  88
  95
  102
  111
  119
  127
  136
  145
  154
  164
  174
  184
  194
  204
  216
  228
  239
  252
  264
  278
  292
  307
  322
  337
  354
  372
  389
  408
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  8
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -95
  -101
  -108
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -157
  -167
  -176
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -242
  -254
  -267
  -281
  -295
  -309
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -54
  -58
  -63
  -69
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -212
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -29
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -31
  -31
  -30
  -29
  -28
  -27
  -25
  -24
  -22
  -20
  -17
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  69.1
  50.5
  37.7
  28.8
  22.3
  17.5
  13.9
  11.2
  9.1
  7.4
  6.1
  5.0
  4.2
  3.5
  2.9
  2.4
  2.0
  1.7
  1.5
  1.2
  1.1
  0.9
  0.8
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3

NanoString Technologies, Inc. develops, manufactures, and sells products that unlock scientifically valuable and clinically actionable biologic information from tissue worldwide. It provides nCounter Analysis System, an automated, multi-application, digital detection, and counting system that includes a nCounter Prep Station, an automated liquid handling component that processes and prepares samples for data collection; and nCounter Digital Analyzer, which collects data from samples through the images of the immobilized fluorescent reporters in the sample cartridge and processing the data into output files. The company also offers nSolver Analysis software, a program that helps researchers to check, normalize, and analyze their data; and nCounter SPRINT Profiler, an instrument that provides liquid handling steps and digital analysis through a microfluidic cartridge. In addition, it provides Pan Cancer pathways gene expression panels, immune profiling gene expression panels, progression panels, RNA, and profiles, as well as other gene expression, microRNA expression, and cancer copy number variation panels; custom CodeSets; nCounter Elements reagents that allow users to design customized assays for gene expression, copy number variation, and gene fusions; and nCounter master kits that include ancillary reagents and plasticware to setup and process samples in the nCounter Prep Station and nCounter Digital Analyzer. It markets its systems and related consumables to researchers in academic, government, and biopharmaceutical laboratories, as well as to clinical laboratories and medical centers. NanoString Technologies, Inc. has collaboration with Celgene Corporation; Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp; Medivation, Inc.; and Astellas Pharma, Inc, as well as has collaborations with various biopharma companies to develop diagnostic tests for various cancer therapies. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  NanoString Technologies (NSTG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -6.6
Price to Sales 3.6
Price to Book 25.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -51.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -30.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 36.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 32%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 391.7%
Total Debt to Equity 391.7%
Interest Coverage -11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -39.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -46.6%
Return On Total Capital -78.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -75.5%
Return On Equity -293.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -189%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 65.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.3%
EBITDA Margin -46.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -67.9%
Operating Margin -48.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -69.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -54.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -76.7%
Net Profit Margin -54.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -77.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

NSTG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NSTG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $86 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by NanoString Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of NanoString Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NSTG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NSTG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of NanoString Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of NanoString Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NSTG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 104.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $39 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NSTG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.1% for NanoString Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for NanoString Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NSTG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NSTG are equal to 12.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in NanoString Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NSTG is equal to 4.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $12 million for NanoString Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 20.773 million for NanoString Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of NanoString Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ NanoString reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 10:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ NanoString Technologies Announces Offering of Common Stock   [May-31-17 04:09PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ NanoString reports 1Q loss   [May-04-17 06:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ NanoString reports 4Q loss   [04:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love First Bancorp (FBNC)?   [Dec-15-16 02:09PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Whitestone REIT (WSR) A Good Stock To Buy?   [09:43AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of NSTG Financial statements of NSTG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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