Intrinsic value of NetScout Systems - NTCT

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$35.45

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$35.45

 
Intrinsic value

$45.95

 
Up/down potential

+30%

 
Rating

buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NTCT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  110.35
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  955
  974
  997
  1,022
  1,051
  1,083
  1,118
  1,156
  1,197
  1,241
  1,289
  1,340
  1,394
  1,452
  1,514
  1,579
  1,648
  1,722
  1,799
  1,881
  1,967
  2,058
  2,155
  2,256
  2,363
  2,475
  2,594
  2,718
  2,850
  2,988
  3,133
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  762
  776
  791
  809
  828
  849
  872
  898
  924
  953
  813
  846
  882
  919
  959
  1,001
  1,045
  1,092
  1,142
  1,194
  1,250
  1,308
  1,369
  1,434
  1,503
  1,574
  1,650
  1,730
  1,814
  1,902
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  981
  762
  776
  791
  809
  828
  849
  872
  898
  924
  953
  813
  846
  882
  919
  959
  1,001
  1,045
  1,092
  1,142
  1,194
  1,250
  1,308
  1,369
  1,434
  1,503
  1,574
  1,650
  1,730
  1,814
  1,902
Operating income, $m
  -26
  212
  221
  231
  242
  255
  268
  283
  299
  317
  336
  527
  548
  571
  595
  620
  648
  676
  707
  739
  773
  809
  847
  886
  928
  973
  1,019
  1,068
  1,120
  1,174
  1,231
EBITDA, $m
  114
  437
  448
  459
  472
  486
  502
  519
  538
  557
  579
  602
  626
  652
  680
  709
  740
  773
  808
  845
  883
  924
  968
  1,013
  1,061
  1,112
  1,165
  1,221
  1,280
  1,342
  1,407
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  11
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  96
Earnings before tax, $m
  -32
  201
  209
  218
  229
  240
  252
  266
  280
  296
  313
  502
  521
  542
  563
  586
  611
  637
  664
  693
  723
  756
  790
  825
  863
  903
  945
  989
  1,035
  1,084
  1,135
Tax expense, $m
  -4
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  136
  141
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  279
  293
  306
Net income, $m
  -28
  147
  153
  159
  167
  175
  184
  194
  205
  216
  229
  366
  380
  395
  411
  428
  446
  465
  485
  506
  528
  552
  576
  603
  630
  659
  690
  722
  755
  791
  828

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  339
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,593
  3,325
  3,401
  3,488
  3,587
  3,695
  3,815
  3,945
  4,085
  4,237
  4,399
  4,573
  4,759
  4,956
  5,166
  5,389
  5,625
  5,875
  6,140
  6,419
  6,714
  7,025
  7,354
  7,700
  8,064
  8,448
  8,852
  9,278
  9,725
  10,196
  10,692
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,254
  3,325
  3,401
  3,488
  3,587
  3,695
  3,815
  3,945
  4,085
  4,237
  4,399
  4,573
  4,759
  4,956
  5,166
  5,389
  5,625
  5,875
  6,140
  6,419
  6,714
  7,025
  7,354
  7,700
  8,064
  8,448
  8,852
  9,278
  9,725
  10,196
  10,692
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
  0.293
Average production assets, $m
  595
  607
  621
  637
  655
  675
  696
  720
  746
  773
  803
  835
  869
  905
  943
  984
  1,027
  1,073
  1,121
  1,172
  1,226
  1,282
  1,342
  1,405
  1,472
  1,542
  1,616
  1,694
  1,775
  1,861
  1,952
Working capital, $m
  283
  -57
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
Total debt, $m
  300
  324
  351
  381
  416
  454
  497
  542
  592
  646
  703
  764
  830
  900
  974
  1,052
  1,136
  1,224
  1,317
  1,416
  1,520
  1,630
  1,746
  1,868
  1,997
  2,132
  2,275
  2,425
  2,583
  2,749
  2,924
Total liabilities, $m
  1,149
  1,174
  1,201
  1,231
  1,266
  1,304
  1,347
  1,392
  1,442
  1,496
  1,553
  1,614
  1,680
  1,750
  1,824
  1,902
  1,986
  2,074
  2,167
  2,266
  2,370
  2,480
  2,596
  2,718
  2,847
  2,982
  3,125
  3,275
  3,433
  3,599
  3,774
Total equity, $m
  2,443
  2,151
  2,200
  2,257
  2,321
  2,391
  2,468
  2,552
  2,643
  2,741
  2,846
  2,959
  3,079
  3,207
  3,343
  3,487
  3,640
  3,801
  3,972
  4,153
  4,344
  4,545
  4,758
  4,982
  5,217
  5,466
  5,727
  6,003
  6,292
  6,597
  6,918
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,592
  3,325
  3,401
  3,488
  3,587
  3,695
  3,815
  3,944
  4,085
  4,237
  4,399
  4,573
  4,759
  4,957
  5,167
  5,389
  5,626
  5,875
  6,139
  6,419
  6,714
  7,025
  7,354
  7,700
  8,064
  8,448
  8,852
  9,278
  9,725
  10,196
  10,692
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.123
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647
  0.647

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -28
  147
  153
  159
  167
  175
  184
  194
  205
  216
  229
  366
  380
  395
  411
  428
  446
  465
  485
  506
  528
  552
  576
  603
  630
  659
  690
  722
  755
  791
  828
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  140
  226
  227
  228
  230
  232
  234
  236
  238
  241
  243
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
Funds from operations, $m
  86
  373
  380
  388
  397
  407
  418
  430
  443
  457
  472
  442
  459
  477
  496
  517
  538
  561
  586
  611
  639
  667
  697
  729
  763
  798
  835
  874
  915
  959
  1,004
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
Cash from operations, $m
  95
  895
  381
  389
  399
  409
  420
  432
  445
  459
  475
  445
  462
  480
  500
  521
  543
  566
  590
  616
  644
  673
  703
  735
  769
  805
  842
  882
  923
  967
  1,013
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
New CAPEX, $m
  -30
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
Cash from investing activities, $m
  25
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -167
  -176
  -184
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -246
  -258
Free cash flow, $m
  120
  829
  312
  317
  323
  330
  337
  346
  355
  365
  375
  341
  353
  366
  380
  395
  411
  428
  445
  464
  484
  505
  528
  551
  576
  602
  629
  658
  689
  721
  755
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  295
  24
  27
  31
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -312
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -15
  24
  27
  31
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  106
  853
  339
  348
  358
  368
  380
  392
  404
  418
  433
  402
  418
  436
  454
  474
  494
  516
  539
  563
  588
  615
  643
  673
  704
  737
  772
  809
  847
  887
  930
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -2,007
  -47
  -49
  -57
  -63
  -70
  -77
  -84
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -113
  -120
  -128
  -136
  -144
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -212
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -262
  -275
  -290
  -305
  -321
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  339
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,145
  290
  292
  294
  298
  302
  307
  313
  320
  327
  289
  298
  308
  318
  329
  341
  354
  368
  382
  398
  414
  431
  449
  469
  489
  511
  533
  557
  582
  609
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,098
  265
  254
  242
  231
  219
  208
  196
  184
  172
  137
  127
  117
  107
  97
  87
  77
  68
  59
  51
  43
  36
  29
  24
  19
  15
  11
  9
  6
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

NetScout Systems, Inc. provides real-time operational intelligence and performance analytics for service assurance, and cyber security solutions in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company offers nGeniusONE management software that enables customers to predict, preempt, and resolve network and service delivery problems, as well as facilitate the optimization and capacity planning of their network infrastructures; and specialized platforms and analytic modules that enable its customers to analyze and troubleshoot traffic in radio access and Wi-Fi networks, as well as gain timely insight into services, applications, and systems. It also provides Intelligent Data Sources under the Infinistream brand name that provide real-time collection and analysis of data from the network; network monitoring fabric switching solutions that deliver targeted network traffic access to an increasing number of monitoring systems; and a suite of test access points that enable non-disruptive access to network traffic with multiple link type and speed options. In addition, the company offers portable network analysis and troubleshooting tools, which help customers identify key issues that impact network and application performance. Further, it provides security solutions that enable service providers and enterprises to protect their networks against DDoS attacks; and threat detection solutions that enable enterprises to identify and investigate advanced threat campaigns that present tangible risks to the integrity of their networks. The company serves enterprise customers in industries, such as financial services, technology, manufacturing, healthcare, utilities, education, transportation, and retail; mobile operators, wireline operators, and cable operators; and governmental agencies through a direct sales force, and indirect reseller and distribution channels. NetScout Systems, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Westford, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  NetScout Systems (NTCT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -119.1
Price to Sales 3.5
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 35.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 51.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 110.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 130.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 20.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 12.3%
Total Debt to Equity 12.3%
Interest Coverage -7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -1.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Total Capital -1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Return On Equity -1.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 65.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 74.4%
EBITDA Margin 11.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
Operating Margin -2.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Net Profit Margin -2.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Effective Tax Rate 12.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

NTCT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NTCT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $955 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by NetScout Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of NetScout Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NTCT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NTCT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of NetScout Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of NetScout Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NTCT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NTCT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for NetScout Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for NetScout Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NTCT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NTCT are equal to 62.3%.

Life of production assets of 11.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in NetScout Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NTCT is equal to -5.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2443 million for NetScout Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 91.436 million for NetScout Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of NetScout Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ NetScout tops Street 4Q forecasts   [May-04-17 07:57AM  Associated Press]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love NetScout Systems, Inc. (NTCT)?   [Dec-02-16 03:10AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Cray, NetScout Ready to Rise   [Jul-28-16 02:50PM  at Barrons.com]
Stock chart of NTCT Financial statements of NTCT Annual reports of NTCT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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