Intrinsic value of NetScout Systems - NTCT

Previous Close

$29.45

  Intrinsic Value

$26.59

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-10%

Previous close

$29.45

 
Intrinsic value

$26.59

 
Up/down potential

-10%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of NTCT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.68
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,162
  1,185
  1,213
  1,244
  1,279
  1,317
  1,360
  1,406
  1,456
  1,510
  1,568
  1,630
  1,697
  1,767
  1,842
  1,921
  2,006
  2,095
  2,189
  2,289
  2,394
  2,505
  2,622
  2,745
  2,875
  3,012
  3,156
  3,308
  3,467
  3,635
  3,812
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  678
  690
  703
  718
  735
  753
  772
  794
  817
  842
  696
  725
  755
  787
  821
  857
  895
  935
  978
  1,022
  1,070
  1,120
  1,173
  1,228
  1,286
  1,348
  1,413
  1,481
  1,553
  1,628
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  454
  465
  477
  489
  501
  514
  527
  540
  553
  567
  581
  596
  611
  626
  642
  658
  674
  691
  708
  726
  744
  763
  782
  801
  821
  842
  863
  884
  907
  929
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,100
  1,132
  1,155
  1,180
  1,207
  1,236
  1,267
  1,299
  1,334
  1,370
  1,409
  1,277
  1,321
  1,366
  1,413
  1,463
  1,515
  1,569
  1,626
  1,686
  1,748
  1,814
  1,883
  1,955
  2,029
  2,107
  2,190
  2,276
  2,365
  2,460
  2,557
Operating income, $m
  62
  53
  57
  64
  72
  82
  93
  107
  123
  140
  160
  353
  376
  402
  429
  459
  491
  526
  563
  603
  645
  691
  739
  791
  846
  904
  966
  1,032
  1,102
  1,176
  1,254
EBITDA, $m
  223
  287
  293
  301
  311
  323
  337
  353
  371
  392
  414
  439
  466
  495
  526
  560
  597
  636
  678
  723
  772
  823
  877
  935
  997
  1,063
  1,132
  1,206
  1,285
  1,367
  1,455
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  11
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  86
  91
  97
Earnings before tax, $m
  52
  43
  46
  51
  58
  67
  78
  90
  104
  119
  137
  328
  349
  372
  397
  425
  454
  486
  520
  556
  595
  637
  682
  729
  780
  833
  891
  951
  1,016
  1,084
  1,157
Tax expense, $m
  19
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  24
  28
  32
  37
  89
  94
  101
  107
  115
  123
  131
  140
  150
  161
  172
  184
  197
  210
  225
  240
  257
  274
  293
  312
Net income, $m
  33
  31
  34
  37
  43
  49
  57
  66
  76
  87
  100
  239
  255
  272
  290
  310
  332
  355
  379
  406
  435
  465
  498
  532
  569
  608
  650
  695
  742
  792
  845

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  443
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,602
  3,221
  3,295
  3,380
  3,475
  3,580
  3,695
  3,821
  3,958
  4,104
  4,262
  4,430
  4,610
  4,802
  5,005
  5,221
  5,450
  5,692
  5,948
  6,219
  6,505
  6,806
  7,124
  7,459
  7,812
  8,184
  8,576
  8,988
  9,422
  9,878
  10,358
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,159
  3,221
  3,295
  3,380
  3,475
  3,580
  3,695
  3,821
  3,958
  4,104
  4,262
  4,430
  4,610
  4,802
  5,005
  5,221
  5,450
  5,692
  5,948
  6,219
  6,505
  6,806
  7,124
  7,459
  7,812
  8,184
  8,576
  8,988
  9,422
  9,878
  10,358
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
  0.368
Average production assets, $m
  1,055
  1,075
  1,100
  1,128
  1,160
  1,195
  1,233
  1,275
  1,321
  1,370
  1,423
  1,479
  1,539
  1,603
  1,671
  1,743
  1,819
  1,900
  1,985
  2,076
  2,171
  2,272
  2,378
  2,490
  2,608
  2,732
  2,862
  3,000
  3,145
  3,297
  3,457
Working capital, $m
  394
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
Total debt, $m
  300
  322
  350
  381
  416
  455
  498
  544
  594
  649
  707
  769
  835
  906
  981
  1,061
  1,145
  1,234
  1,329
  1,429
  1,534
  1,645
  1,763
  1,886
  2,017
  2,154
  2,298
  2,451
  2,611
  2,779
  2,956
Total liabilities, $m
  1,165
  1,188
  1,216
  1,247
  1,282
  1,321
  1,364
  1,410
  1,460
  1,515
  1,573
  1,635
  1,701
  1,772
  1,847
  1,927
  2,011
  2,100
  2,195
  2,295
  2,400
  2,511
  2,629
  2,752
  2,883
  3,020
  3,164
  3,317
  3,477
  3,645
  3,822
Total equity, $m
  2,436
  2,032
  2,079
  2,132
  2,192
  2,259
  2,332
  2,411
  2,497
  2,590
  2,689
  2,796
  2,909
  3,030
  3,158
  3,294
  3,439
  3,592
  3,753
  3,924
  4,104
  4,295
  4,495
  4,707
  4,930
  5,164
  5,411
  5,671
  5,945
  6,233
  6,536
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,601
  3,220
  3,295
  3,379
  3,474
  3,580
  3,696
  3,821
  3,957
  4,105
  4,262
  4,431
  4,610
  4,802
  5,005
  5,221
  5,450
  5,692
  5,948
  6,219
  6,504
  6,806
  7,124
  7,459
  7,813
  8,184
  8,575
  8,988
  9,422
  9,878
  10,358
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.123
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.450
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631
  0.631

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  33
  31
  34
  37
  43
  49
  57
  66
  76
  87
  100
  239
  255
  272
  290
  310
  332
  355
  379
  406
  435
  465
  498
  532
  569
  608
  650
  695
  742
  792
  845
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  161
  234
  236
  237
  239
  241
  244
  246
  249
  251
  255
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  183
  192
  201
Funds from operations, $m
  233
  265
  269
  275
  282
  290
  300
  311
  324
  339
  354
  325
  344
  365
  387
  411
  437
  465
  495
  527
  561
  597
  636
  677
  721
  767
  817
  869
  924
  983
  1,046
Change in working capital, $m
  5
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
Cash from operations, $m
  228
  266
  271
  276
  283
  292
  302
  313
  326
  341
  357
  328
  347
  368
  390
  415
  441
  469
  499
  531
  565
  602
  641
  682
  726
  773
  823
  875
  931
  990
  1,053
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -61
  -63
  -64
  -66
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
New CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -21
  -25
  -28
  -32
  -35
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -42
  -82
  -88
  -92
  -98
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -187
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -263
  -276
  -290
  -304
  -319
  -335
  -352
Free cash flow, $m
  186
  185
  183
  184
  186
  189
  194
  200
  207
  215
  225
  189
  201
  215
  229
  245
  263
  282
  303
  325
  349
  375
  402
  432
  464
  497
  533
  571
  612
  655
  701
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  22
  27
  31
  35
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -90
  8
  13
  16
  17
  17
  16
  14
  10
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -91
  30
  40
  47
  52
  56
  59
  60
  60
  59
  58
  62
  66
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  144
  152
  160
  168
  177
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  94
  215
  224
  231
  238
  246
  253
  260
  267
  275
  283
  251
  267
  285
  304
  325
  348
  372
  397
  425
  455
  486
  520
  556
  594
  634
  678
  723
  772
  824
  878
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  7
  -39
  -47
  -53
  -60
  -66
  -73
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -121
  -128
  -136
  -144
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -201
  -211
  -223
  -235
  -247
  -260
  -274
  -288
  -303
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  443
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  619
  177
  178
  178
  179
  180
  181
  181
  182
  183
  145
  154
  164
  176
  189
  203
  219
  236
  254
  274
  296
  319
  344
  371
  400
  431
  463
  498
  536
  575
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  593
  162
  155
  147
  139
  131
  122
  113
  105
  96
  69
  66
  63
  59
  55
  52
  48
  43
  39
  35
  31
  26
  23
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.6
  99.0
  98.3
  97.6
  96.9
  96.2
  95.7
  95.3
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1
  95.1

NetScout Systems, Inc. (NetScout) provides operational intelligence and performance analytics for service assurance and cyber security solutions. The Company's solutions are used in various service provider, enterprise and government networks. Its nGenius and Infinistream technologies, along with certain product lines from the acquired businesses, enable information technology (IT) organizations to manage service delivery quality, and identify and address business service performance issues and security threats. The Company's manufacturing operations consist of final product assembly, configuration and testing. The Company's nGeniusONE Service Assurance Solution is used to support NetScout's enterprise, service provider and government customers. The Company's Intelligent Data Sources, marketed under the Infinistream brand, provide collection and analysis of high-volume packet-flow data from across the network that is displayed through the nGeniusONE Service Assurance Solution.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  NetScout Systems (NTCT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 82.1
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 21.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 6.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 18%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 12.3%
Total Debt to Equity 12.3%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Total Capital 1.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Equity 1.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 70.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.7%
EBITDA Margin 18.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Operating Margin 5.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Net Profit Margin 2.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 36.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

NTCT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NTCT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1162 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by NetScout Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of NetScout Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NTCT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NTCT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of NetScout Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of NetScout Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NTCT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 57.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $443 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NTCT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for NetScout Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for NetScout Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NTCT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NTCT are equal to 90.7%.

Life of production assets of 17.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in NetScout Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NTCT is equal to -4.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2436 million for NetScout Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 89.567 million for NetScout Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of NetScout Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Should You Sell NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT) At This PE Ratio?   [Dec-04-17 01:40PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ NETSCOUT Announces Participation in Nasdaq Investor Program   [Dec-01-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ NETSCOUT Announces First Android-Based Smart Network Tester   [Nov-28-17 09:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Why NetScout Systems Inc (NTCT) Could Be A Buy   [Nov-16-17 11:57AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ NetScout reports 2Q loss   [Oct-26-17 07:53AM  Associated Press]
▶ NETSCOUT Announces New Performance Features in AirCheck G2   [Oct-03-17 09:48AM  Business Wire]
▶ What You Must Know About NetScout Systems Incs (NTCT) Risks   [Oct-02-17 04:32PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Can NetScout Get The Respect It Deserves?   [Sep-29-17 02:44PM  Forbes]
▶ Company Profile for NETSCOUT   [Aug-25-17 10:40AM  Business Wire]
▶ NetScout reports 1Q loss   [Jul-28-17 12:19AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cybersecurity firm to move 500 employees to new Allen regional office   [Jun-18-17 05:25PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ NetScout tops Street 4Q forecasts   [May-04-17 07:57AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of NTCT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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