Intrinsic value of Natera - NTRA

Previous Close

$13.20

  Intrinsic Value

$0.50

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-96%

Previous close

$13.20

 
Intrinsic value

$0.50

 
Up/down potential

-96%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of NTRA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.21
  3.80
  3.92
  4.03
  4.13
  4.21
  4.29
  4.36
  4.43
  4.48
  4.54
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.73
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
Revenue, $m
  217
  225
  234
  244
  254
  264
  276
  288
  300
  314
  328
  343
  359
  376
  393
  412
  431
  452
  474
  497
  521
  546
  572
  600
  630
  661
  693
  727
  763
  801
  840
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  297
  309
  321
  334
  348
  363
  379
  396
  414
  432
  452
  473
  495
  518
  543
  569
  596
  624
  654
  686
  719
  754
  791
  830
  871
  914
  958
  1,006
  1,055
  1,108
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  314
  297
  309
  321
  334
  348
  363
  379
  396
  414
  432
  452
  473
  495
  518
  543
  569
  596
  624
  654
  686
  719
  754
  791
  830
  871
  914
  958
  1,006
  1,055
  1,108
Operating income, $m
  -96
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -243
  -255
  -267
EBITDA, $m
  -90
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -226
  -238
  -249
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Earnings before tax, $m
  -96
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -272
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -96
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -272

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  146
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  211
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  171
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  229
  240
  252
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  171
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  229
  240
  252
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.338
  3.358
  3.343
  3.342
  3.342
  3.342
  3.325
  3.349
  3.333
  3.340
  3.347
  3.330
  3.324
  3.327
  3.331
  3.350
  3.341
  3.348
  3.338
  3.336
  3.340
  3.329
  3.345
  3.333
  3.333
  3.338
  3.332
  3.335
  3.332
  3.338
  3.333
Average production assets, $m
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
Working capital, $m
  78
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
Total debt, $m
  50
  2
  4
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  49
  54
  60
  65
  71
  77
  83
  90
  97
  105
  112
  121
  129
  138
  148
  158
Total liabilities, $m
  104
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  160
  167
  176
  184
  193
  203
  213
Total equity, $m
  106
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  210
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  112
  118
  123
  129
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  180
  189
  197
  208
  218
  228
  240
  252
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.472
  0.200
  0.400
  0.600
  0.790
  0.980
  1.170
  1.350
  1.520
  1.690
  1.860
  2.020
  2.170
  2.320
  2.460
  2.600
  2.730
  2.860
  2.980
  3.090
  3.200
  3.310
  3.410
  3.510
  3.600
  3.690
  3.770
  3.850
  3.930
  4.000
  4.070
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -96
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -272
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
Funds from operations, $m
  -74
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -243
  -255
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  -74
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -251
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
New CAPEX, $m
  -23
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from investing activities, $m
  47
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
Free cash flow, $m
  -27
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -236
  -247
  -260
  -272
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  6
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  226
  237
  249
  261
  274
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  13
  74
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  193
  202
  212
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
  284
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -14
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  79
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -261
  -274
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  96
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  26
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  25
  -66
  -65
  -65
  -63
  -62
  -60
  -58
  -56
  -53
  -50
  -47
  -44
  -41
  -38
  -34
  -31
  -27
  -24
  -21
  -18
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  47.9
  23.0
  11.0
  5.2
  2.5
  1.2
  0.6
  0.3
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Natera, Inc. is a diagnostics company. The Company is engaged in the discovery, development and commercialization of genetic testing services. It offers Panorama Non-Invasive Prenatal Test that screens for chromosomal abnormalities of a fetus with a blood draw from the mother; Horizon Carrier Screening to determine carrier status for a large number of severe genetic diseases that could be passed on to the carrier's children; Spectrum Pre-implantation Genetic Screening and Spectrum Pre-implantation Genetic Diagnosis to analyze chromosomal anomalies or inherited genetic conditions during an in vitro fertilization cycle to select embryos with the probability of becoming healthy children; Anora Products of Conception test to analyze fetal chromosomes to understand the cause of miscarriage, and Non-Invasive Paternity Testing, to determine paternity by analyzing the fragments of fetal deoxyribonucleic acid in a pregnant mother's blood and a blood sample from the alleged father(s).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Natera (NTRA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -7.2
Price to Sales 3.2
Price to Book 6.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -9.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -7.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 187.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 23.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 47.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -40.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -26.2%
Return On Total Capital -50.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.6%
Return On Equity -66%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.4%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.3%
EBITDA Margin -41.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -24.3%
Operating Margin -44.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -25.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -44.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.1%
Net Profit Margin -44.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

NTRA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NTRA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $217 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Natera. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Natera. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NTRA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NTRA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Natera, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Natera.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NTRA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 131.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NTRA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Natera.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Natera. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NTRA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NTRA are equal to 10.6%.

Life of production assets of 3.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Natera operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NTRA is equal to -8.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $106 million for Natera - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 53.223 million for Natera is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Natera at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Natera, Inc. : October 17, 2017   [Oct-17-17 09:53AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Natera, Inc. : October 6, 2017   [Oct-06-17 10:58AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Natera, Inc. : August 14, 2017   [Aug-14-17 05:02PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Natera reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 10:29PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Natera, Inc. : July 7, 2017   [Jul-07-17 03:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Natera, Inc. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:33PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Natera, Inc. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 04:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Here's Why Natera Inc. Stock Is Surging Today   [May-10-17 04:48PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Natera reports 1Q loss   [May-09-17 06:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Natera, Inc. : April 27, 2017   [Apr-27-17 04:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Natera, Inc. : April 17, 2017   [Apr-17-17 01:01PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Natera, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Here's Why Natera, Inc. Is Tumbling Today   [Mar-08-17 12:55PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Natera reports 4Q loss   [Mar-07-17 06:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Natera Provides Constellation Update   [Dec-21-16 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Alon USA Energy, Inc. (ALJ) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-10-16 01:32PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Natera Inc (NTRA) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-05-16 02:22AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Natera Announces Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call   [Jul-28-16 07:21PM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of NTRA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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