Intrinsic value of Nutrisystem - NTRI

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$54.05

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$54.05

 
Intrinsic value

$74.98

 
Up/down potential

+39%

 
Rating

buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NTRI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.71
  21.10
  19.49
  18.04
  16.74
  15.56
  14.51
  13.56
  12.70
  11.93
  11.24
  10.61
  10.05
  9.55
  9.09
  8.68
  8.31
  7.98
  7.69
  7.42
  7.17
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.28
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
  5.76
Revenue, $m
  545
  660
  789
  931
  1,087
  1,256
  1,438
  1,633
  1,840
  2,060
  2,291
  2,535
  2,789
  3,056
  3,334
  3,623
  3,924
  4,238
  4,563
  4,902
  5,253
  5,619
  5,999
  6,394
  6,805
  7,232
  7,677
  8,141
  8,625
  9,128
  9,654
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  547
  654
  772
  901
  1,041
  1,192
  1,354
  1,526
  1,708
  1,900
  2,101
  2,312
  2,533
  2,763
  3,003
  3,253
  3,513
  3,783
  4,063
  4,355
  4,658
  4,973
  5,300
  5,641
  5,996
  6,365
  6,749
  7,150
  7,567
  8,003
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  57
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
Total operating expenses, $m
  491
  588
  696
  815
  945
  1,086
  1,238
  1,402
  1,575
  1,758
  1,951
  2,153
  2,366
  2,588
  2,820
  3,061
  3,312
  3,574
  3,845
  4,127
  4,421
  4,725
  5,042
  5,371
  5,713
  6,070
  6,441
  6,827
  7,230
  7,649
  8,087
Operating income, $m
  54
  72
  93
  116
  142
  169
  200
  232
  266
  302
  341
  381
  423
  467
  514
  562
  612
  664
  718
  774
  833
  894
  957
  1,023
  1,091
  1,163
  1,237
  1,314
  1,395
  1,479
  1,567
EBITDA, $m
  68
  83
  106
  132
  160
  191
  224
  259
  297
  337
  380
  424
  471
  519
  570
  623
  678
  736
  795
  858
  922
  989
  1,059
  1,131
  1,207
  1,286
  1,367
  1,453
  1,542
  1,634
  1,731
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
Earnings before tax, $m
  54
  72
  92
  115
  140
  167
  197
  228
  262
  297
  335
  374
  416
  459
  504
  551
  600
  651
  704
  759
  816
  876
  938
  1,002
  1,069
  1,139
  1,211
  1,287
  1,366
  1,448
  1,534
Tax expense, $m
  19
  19
  25
  31
  38
  45
  53
  62
  71
  80
  90
  101
  112
  124
  136
  149
  162
  176
  190
  205
  220
  236
  253
  271
  289
  307
  327
  348
  369
  391
  414
Net income, $m
  35
  52
  67
  84
  102
  122
  144
  167
  191
  217
  244
  273
  303
  335
  368
  402
  438
  475
  514
  554
  596
  639
  685
  732
  780
  831
  884
  940
  997
  1,057
  1,120

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  154
  145
  174
  205
  239
  276
  317
  360
  405
  454
  504
  558
  614
  673
  734
  798
  864
  933
  1,005
  1,079
  1,157
  1,237
  1,321
  1,408
  1,498
  1,592
  1,690
  1,792
  1,899
  2,010
  2,126
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  120
  145
  174
  205
  239
  276
  317
  360
  405
  454
  504
  558
  614
  673
  734
  798
  864
  933
  1,005
  1,079
  1,157
  1,237
  1,321
  1,408
  1,498
  1,592
  1,690
  1,792
  1,899
  2,010
  2,126
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  4.542
  4.552
  4.534
  4.541
  4.548
  4.551
  4.536
  4.536
  4.543
  4.537
  4.546
  4.543
  4.542
  4.541
  4.542
  4.540
  4.542
  4.542
  4.540
  4.543
  4.540
  4.542
  4.541
  4.541
  4.543
  4.543
  4.543
  4.543
  4.542
  4.541
  4.541
Average production assets, $m
  47
  56
  67
  79
  92
  107
  122
  139
  156
  175
  195
  215
  237
  260
  283
  308
  334
  360
  388
  417
  447
  478
  510
  543
  578
  615
  653
  692
  733
  776
  821
Working capital, $m
  43
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  83
  89
  96
  102
  109
  116
  123
  131
  138
  147
  155
  164
Total debt, $m
  0
  12
  26
  42
  59
  77
  97
  118
  140
  164
  189
  216
  243
  272
  302
  333
  366
  400
  435
  472
  510
  550
  591
  634
  678
  724
  773
  823
  875
  930
  987
Total liabilities, $m
  60
  71
  85
  101
  118
  136
  156
  177
  199
  223
  248
  275
  302
  331
  361
  392
  425
  459
  494
  531
  569
  609
  650
  693
  737
  783
  832
  882
  934
  989
  1,046
Total equity, $m
  95
  74
  88
  104
  122
  140
  161
  183
  206
  230
  256
  283
  312
  342
  373
  405
  439
  474
  510
  548
  588
  628
  671
  715
  761
  809
  859
  911
  965
  1,021
  1,080
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  155
  145
  173
  205
  240
  276
  317
  360
  405
  453
  504
  558
  614
  673
  734
  797
  864
  933
  1,004
  1,079
  1,157
  1,237
  1,321
  1,408
  1,498
  1,592
  1,691
  1,793
  1,899
  2,010
  2,126
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.170
  0.300
  0.400
  0.480
  0.550
  0.600
  0.650
  0.680
  0.710
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
  0.900
  0.900
  0.900
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508
  0.508

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  35
  52
  67
  84
  102
  122
  144
  167
  191
  217
  244
  273
  303
  335
  368
  402
  438
  475
  514
  554
  596
  639
  685
  732
  780
  831
  884
  940
  997
  1,057
  1,120
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  11
  13
  16
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  39
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  83
  89
  96
  102
  109
  116
  123
  131
  138
  147
  155
  164
Funds from operations, $m
  45
  64
  81
  100
  121
  144
  168
  194
  222
  252
  283
  316
  351
  387
  425
  464
  505
  547
  591
  637
  685
  735
  786
  840
  896
  954
  1,015
  1,078
  1,144
  1,213
  1,284
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
Cash from operations, $m
  51
  62
  79
  97
  118
  141
  165
  191
  219
  248
  279
  312
  347
  382
  420
  459
  500
  542
  586
  632
  679
  729
  780
  833
  889
  947
  1,007
  1,070
  1,136
  1,204
  1,275
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -96
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -131
  -138
  -147
  -155
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -29
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -128
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -190
  -200
Free cash flow, $m
  22
  43
  57
  72
  89
  108
  128
  150
  174
  198
  225
  253
  282
  312
  344
  378
  412
  449
  486
  525
  566
  608
  652
  698
  745
  795
  847
  900
  956
  1,015
  1,075
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  24
  56
  70
  87
  106
  126
  148
  171
  196
  222
  250
  279
  309
  341
  374
  409
  445
  482
  521
  562
  604
  648
  693
  741
  790
  841
  895
  950
  1,009
  1,069
  1,132
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -25
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  77
  56
  71
  89
  107
  128
  149
  173
  198
  224
  252
  281
  311
  343
  377
  411
  447
  485
  524
  565
  607
  651
  697
  744
  793
  845
  899
  954
  1,013
  1,074
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  74
  51
  62
  73
  83
  93
  101
  108
  114
  117
  120
  120
  118
  115
  111
  105
  97
  89
  81
  72
  63
  54
  46
  38
  31
  25
  19
  15
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Nutrisystem, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides weight management products and services for women and men in the United States. The company offers Nutrisystem program that consists of approximately 150 portion-controlled items, which serve as the foundation of a low glycemic index diet. Its programs comprise Nutrisystem D, a program designed for people with type 2 diabetes for losing weight and managing their diabetes; Turbo10 program, a program that deliver up to a 10-pound weight loss and a reduction of 5 inches overall in the first month of dieting; and 5-day kit, a kit for individuals with or at risk of type 2 diabetes, as well as SmartCarb and PowerFuel products, including blueberry muffins, cinnamon buns, vanilla shakes, chocolate shakes, and chocolate chip cookie packs. The company also provides My Daily 3, a physical activity program, which provides information on diet, nutrition, and physical activity; and NuMi, a digital product that integrates with wearable fitness devices and health platforms. It offers monthly food packages of frozen and ready-to-go food containing four-week meal plan of breakfasts, lunches, dinners, and snacks and flex meal plan recipes, which they supplement with fresh fruits, vegetables, and dairy. The company sells its pre-packaged foods to weight loss program participants directly through the Internet and telephone; a television shopping network; and retailers. Nutrisystem, Inc. was founded in 1972 and is based in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Nutrisystem (NTRI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 45.8
Price to Sales 2.9
Price to Book 16.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 31.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 44.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 24.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.4%
Return On Total Capital 42.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.6%
Return On Equity 42.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.6%
Asset Turnover 3.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.6%
EBITDA Margin 12.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Operating Margin 9.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Net Profit Margin 6.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Effective Tax Rate 35.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.9%
Payout Ratio 60%

NTRI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NTRI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $545 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Nutrisystem. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Nutrisystem. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NTRI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NTRI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Nutrisystem, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Nutrisystem.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NTRI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $40 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NTRI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Nutrisystem.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Nutrisystem. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NTRI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NTRI are equal to 8.5%.

Life of production assets of 3.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Nutrisystem operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NTRI is equal to 1.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $95 million for Nutrisystem - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.73 million for Nutrisystem is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Nutrisystem at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ The Skinny On A Top Stock: Nutrisystem Looks Ripped This Diet Season   [Apr-24-17 04:25PM  Investor's Business Daily]
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▶ Why NutriSystem Inc. Stock Jumped   [12:59PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Nutrisystem, Inc. Announces Multi-Brand Approach for 2017   [Dec-27-16 09:01AM  Business Wire]
▶ Is New Mountain Finance Corp. (NMFC) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-12-16 12:34PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ NutriSystem Inc. (NTRI): Hedge Funds Holdings Are Losing Weight   [Nov-28-16 10:16PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of NTRI Financial statements of NTRI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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