Intrinsic value of Nuance Communications - NUAN

Previous Close

$16.21

  Intrinsic Value

$15.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-7%

Previous close

$16.21

 
Intrinsic value

$15.09

 
Up/down potential

-7%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of NUAN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.51
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,939
  1,978
  2,023
  2,075
  2,134
  2,198
  2,269
  2,347
  2,430
  2,520
  2,617
  2,721
  2,831
  2,949
  3,074
  3,206
  3,347
  3,495
  3,653
  3,819
  3,994
  4,179
  4,375
  4,580
  4,797
  5,026
  5,266
  5,519
  5,786
  6,066
  6,360
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,830
  1,864
  1,903
  1,946
  1,994
  2,047
  2,104
  2,167
  2,234
  2,306
  2,024
  2,106
  2,193
  2,286
  2,385
  2,489
  2,600
  2,717
  2,840
  2,971
  3,109
  3,254
  3,407
  3,568
  3,738
  3,917
  4,105
  4,303
  4,512
  4,731
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,887
  1,830
  1,864
  1,903
  1,946
  1,994
  2,047
  2,104
  2,167
  2,234
  2,306
  2,024
  2,106
  2,193
  2,286
  2,385
  2,489
  2,600
  2,717
  2,840
  2,971
  3,109
  3,254
  3,407
  3,568
  3,738
  3,917
  4,105
  4,303
  4,512
  4,731
Operating income, $m
  52
  148
  159
  173
  188
  204
  222
  242
  264
  287
  311
  697
  725
  755
  787
  821
  857
  895
  936
  978
  1,023
  1,071
  1,121
  1,174
  1,229
  1,288
  1,349
  1,414
  1,482
  1,554
  1,630
EBITDA, $m
  286
  555
  567
  582
  598
  617
  636
  658
  682
  707
  734
  763
  794
  827
  862
  899
  939
  980
  1,024
  1,071
  1,120
  1,172
  1,227
  1,285
  1,345
  1,410
  1,477
  1,548
  1,623
  1,701
  1,784
Interest expense (income), $m
  92
  81
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  141
  149
  157
  166
  176
  186
  196
  207
  219
  232
  245
  259
  273
  289
  305
  322
  340
  359
Earnings before tax, $m
  -119
  67
  76
  86
  98
  110
  124
  139
  155
  173
  191
  571
  592
  615
  639
  664
  691
  720
  750
  782
  816
  851
  889
  929
  970
  1,014
  1,060
  1,109
  1,160
  1,214
  1,271
Tax expense, $m
  32
  18
  20
  23
  26
  30
  33
  38
  42
  47
  52
  154
  160
  166
  172
  179
  187
  194
  203
  211
  220
  230
  240
  251
  262
  274
  286
  299
  313
  328
  343
Net income, $m
  -151
  49
  55
  63
  71
  80
  91
  101
  113
  126
  140
  416
  432
  449
  466
  485
  505
  525
  548
  571
  596
  622
  649
  678
  708
  740
  774
  810
  847
  886
  928

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  845
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,932
  5,191
  5,310
  5,447
  5,600
  5,770
  5,956
  6,159
  6,379
  6,615
  6,869
  7,141
  7,430
  7,739
  8,067
  8,415
  8,784
  9,174
  9,587
  10,023
  10,484
  10,969
  11,482
  12,022
  12,591
  13,191
  13,822
  14,486
  15,185
  15,921
  16,694
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,087
  5,191
  5,310
  5,447
  5,600
  5,770
  5,956
  6,159
  6,379
  6,615
  6,869
  7,141
  7,430
  7,739
  8,067
  8,415
  8,784
  9,174
  9,587
  10,023
  10,484
  10,969
  11,482
  12,022
  12,591
  13,191
  13,822
  14,486
  15,185
  15,921
  16,694
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
  0.381
Average production assets, $m
  894
  912
  933
  957
  984
  1,013
  1,046
  1,082
  1,120
  1,162
  1,206
  1,254
  1,305
  1,359
  1,417
  1,478
  1,543
  1,611
  1,684
  1,760
  1,841
  1,927
  2,017
  2,112
  2,212
  2,317
  2,428
  2,544
  2,667
  2,796
  2,932
Working capital, $m
  216
  -257
  -263
  -270
  -277
  -286
  -295
  -305
  -316
  -328
  -340
  -354
  -368
  -383
  -400
  -417
  -435
  -454
  -475
  -496
  -519
  -543
  -569
  -595
  -624
  -653
  -685
  -717
  -752
  -789
  -827
Total debt, $m
  2,617
  2,317
  2,402
  2,500
  2,609
  2,730
  2,863
  3,007
  3,164
  3,333
  3,514
  3,707
  3,914
  4,134
  4,368
  4,616
  4,879
  5,157
  5,451
  5,762
  6,091
  6,437
  6,803
  7,188
  7,594
  8,021
  8,471
  8,945
  9,443
  9,967
  10,519
Total liabilities, $m
  4,001
  3,701
  3,786
  3,884
  3,993
  4,114
  4,247
  4,391
  4,548
  4,717
  4,898
  5,091
  5,298
  5,518
  5,752
  6,000
  6,263
  6,541
  6,835
  7,146
  7,475
  7,821
  8,187
  8,572
  8,978
  9,405
  9,855
  10,329
  10,827
  11,351
  11,903
Total equity, $m
  1,931
  1,490
  1,524
  1,563
  1,607
  1,656
  1,709
  1,768
  1,831
  1,899
  1,971
  2,049
  2,133
  2,221
  2,315
  2,415
  2,521
  2,633
  2,751
  2,877
  3,009
  3,148
  3,295
  3,450
  3,614
  3,786
  3,967
  4,158
  4,358
  4,569
  4,791
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,932
  5,191
  5,310
  5,447
  5,600
  5,770
  5,956
  6,159
  6,379
  6,616
  6,869
  7,140
  7,431
  7,739
  8,067
  8,415
  8,784
  9,174
  9,586
  10,023
  10,484
  10,969
  11,482
  12,022
  12,592
  13,191
  13,822
  14,487
  15,185
  15,920
  16,694
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.355
  1.560
  1.580
  1.600
  1.620
  1.650
  1.670
  1.700
  1.730
  1.760
  1.780
  1.810
  1.840
  1.860
  1.890
  1.910
  1.940
  1.960
  1.980
  2.000
  2.020
  2.040
  2.060
  2.080
  2.100
  2.120
  2.140
  2.150
  2.170
  2.180
  2.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.213
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287
  0.287

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -151
  49
  55
  63
  71
  80
  91
  101
  113
  126
  140
  416
  432
  449
  466
  485
  505
  525
  548
  571
  596
  622
  649
  678
  708
  740
  774
  810
  847
  886
  928
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  234
  407
  408
  409
  411
  412
  414
  416
  418
  420
  423
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
Funds from operations, $m
  413
  456
  464
  472
  482
  493
  505
  518
  531
  546
  562
  482
  501
  520
  541
  563
  586
  610
  636
  664
  692
  723
  755
  789
  825
  862
  902
  944
  987
  1,033
  1,082
Change in working capital, $m
  34
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
Cash from operations, $m
  379
  461
  469
  479
  490
  501
  514
  528
  542
  558
  575
  496
  515
  535
  557
  580
  604
  630
  657
  685
  715
  747
  781
  816
  853
  892
  933
  976
  1,022
  1,070
  1,120
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
New CAPEX, $m
  -62
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -334
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -269
  -283
Free cash flow, $m
  45
  396
  401
  406
  412
  420
  428
  437
  447
  458
  469
  385
  398
  413
  428
  444
  461
  480
  499
  520
  542
  565
  589
  615
  642
  670
  700
  732
  765
  800
  837
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  203
  76
  85
  97
  109
  121
  133
  145
  157
  169
  181
  194
  207
  220
  234
  248
  263
  278
  294
  311
  328
  346
  365
  385
  406
  427
  450
  474
  498
  524
  552
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -82
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  67
  76
  85
  97
  109
  121
  133
  145
  157
  169
  181
  194
  207
  220
  234
  248
  263
  278
  294
  311
  328
  346
  365
  385
  406
  427
  450
  474
  498
  524
  552
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  111
  472
  486
  503
  522
  541
  561
  582
  603
  626
  650
  578
  605
  633
  662
  692
  724
  758
  794
  831
  870
  911
  954
  1,000
  1,048
  1,098
  1,150
  1,206
  1,264
  1,325
  1,389
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  -28
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -49
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -222
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  469
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  913
  451
  464
  478
  492
  507
  523
  540
  558
  577
  500
  522
  544
  568
  592
  619
  646
  675
  706
  738
  772
  807
  845
  884
  926
  969
  1,015
  1,063
  1,114
  1,167
Discount rate, %
 
  7.20
  7.56
  7.94
  8.33
  8.75
  9.19
  9.65
  10.13
  10.64
  11.17
  11.73
  12.31
  12.93
  13.58
  14.26
  14.97
  15.72
  16.50
  17.33
  18.19
  19.10
  20.06
  21.06
  22.11
  23.22
  24.38
  25.60
  26.88
  28.22
  29.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  852
  390
  369
  347
  323
  299
  275
  250
  225
  200
  148
  129
  112
  95
  80
  66
  54
  43
  34
  26
  20
  14
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Nuance Communications, Inc. is a provider of voice recognition and natural language understanding solutions. The Company's segments include Healthcare, Mobile, Enterprise and Imaging. The Healthcare segment provides clinical speech and clinical language understanding solutions. The solutions for the Healthcare segment include transcription solutions, Dragon Medical, and clinical document improvement (CDI) and coding solutions. Its Mobile segment provides a portfolio of specialized virtual assistants and connected services. The Enterprise segment provides automated customer solutions and services. The solutions for the Enterprise segment include On-Premise solutions and services, and On-Demand multichannel cloud. The Imaging segment provides software solutions that help professionals and organizations to gain control of their document and information processes. Imaging segment include multi-function printer (MFP) scan automation solutions and MFP Print automation solutions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Nuance Communications (NUAN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -31.2
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 12.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 116.1%
Total Debt to Equity 135.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.9%
Return On Total Capital -3.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Return On Equity -7.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.4%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 56%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.8%
EBITDA Margin 10.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Operating Margin 2.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -6.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.4%
Net Profit Margin -7.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.8%
Effective Tax Rate -26.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 209.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

NUAN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NUAN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1939 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Nuance Communications. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Nuance Communications. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NUAN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.2%, whose default value for NUAN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Nuance Communications, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Nuance Communications.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NUAN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NUAN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.6% for Nuance Communications.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Nuance Communications. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NUAN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NUAN are equal to 46.1%.

Life of production assets of 19 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Nuance Communications operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NUAN is equal to -13%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1931 million for Nuance Communications - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 290.52 million for Nuance Communications is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Nuance Communications at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] Nuance Says Future of Authentication Is Voice, Behavioral Biometrics   [Feb-21-18 05:25PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Nuance Loop Shortlisted for Prestigious 2018 GLOMO Award   [Feb-13-18 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Nuance Sees Faster Growth for 2018   [Feb-09-18 12:57PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Nuance Communications beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Feb-08-18 04:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ Nuance Announces First Quarter 2018 Results   [04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Nuance Appoints Sanjay Vaswani to its Board of Directors   [Jan-26-18 05:13PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ How Healthcare Can Become Big Business for NVIDIA   [Dec-19-17 03:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Malware Attack Didn't Mute Nuance's Auto-Speech Business   [Nov-29-17 01:32PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Nuance Communications reports 4Q loss   [04:22PM  Associated Press]
▶ Nuance Named CES 2018 Innovation Awards Honoree   [Nov-09-17 05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Bulls say this tech name is heading higher   [Oct-26-17 01:25PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Nuance Files Patent Infringement Lawsuit Against M*Modal   [Oct-23-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of NUAN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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